Thursday: Why I picked Georgia Tech
If only FF gave you the 7.5...
I’d feel much better about the pick if given the 7.5 points that Vegas is offering, but I still like the Jackets’ chances straight up. I see this game already in my mind’s eye, and it is a slugfest. It is a tug-of-war for physical control, and GT has the edge. Five reasons for making this pick:
1. O-LINES. People want to believe in this Tech O-line, and I get that. They’re big (well, outside of David Wang, who makes up for it with technique). They’re athletic. They’ve got potential. I think those guys will be good…eventually. But I’ve seen too many struggles out of that unit over the years to believe they’ll just click immediately. Maybe a crisp spring game performance could have allayed some of that doubt. We’ll never know.
Contrast that with GT. If you read any of Andy’s outstanding previews of Tech’s opponents over the summer, you’ll remember he asked Atlanta Journal-Constitution beatwriter Ken Sugiura if this is the best O-line Paul Johnson’s ever had in Atlanta.
Here is what Sugiura said about a unit that returns 82 combined starts: “It should be, given that Johnson finally has linemen that he recruited who now have considerable experience, and I believe it is. Guard Omoregie Uzzi is a two-time All-ACC pick. Center Jay Finch has plus athletic ability. Tackle Morgan Bailey, injured much of his first two seasons, had a solid spring. Guard Shaquille Mason, who earned playing time as a true freshman, has All-ACC potential.”
Logan Thomas will have a big year, but it'll take some time to gain momentum.
The defense should be great, and can be in this game, but how long will it have to be on the field? Can Tech move the chains consistently enough to be competitive in the time-of-possession battle? I’m thinking no. GT, meanwhile, can take its typical methodical approach down the field and ultimately wear out the Hokies’ D.
(Interestingly, the Hokies were third in the nation in time of possession last year at 34:06 per game while working behind a veteran O-line. Georgia Tech was ninth.)
Logan Thomas will have plenty of highlight moments this year, but I wonder how many will come in this game as the line gets its sea legs.
Lane will be rocking, but does that actually help the Hokies?
4. SLOW STARTS. Much has been made of Tech’s extra time to prepare for the Jackets’ offense — and that’s a significant, proven advantage — but we must not forget that Tech usually gets better as the season goes along. Sharpness early in the season has not been a strength.
Logan morphed into a monster after the personal foul last year.
I see a lower-scoring game this time. Punts. Field position. Defense. Games like that typically favor the Hokies. I just don’t feel that way this time. Not in Week 1, at least.
OPENING NIGHT
Your college football TV schedule for this evening: South Carolina at Vanderbilt (7 p.m., ESPN), Towson at Kent State (7 p.m., CSN Plus), UCLA at Rice (7:30 p.m., CBS Sports Network), Washington State at BYU (10:15 p.m., ESPN), Minnesota at UNLV (11 p.m., CBS Sports Network).
VMI QB Eric Korndenbrock has a big-league arm.
-My column on Chris Colston chasing his longheld aspiration with the Hokie Football Annual.
-Randy’s profile of VMI quarterback Eric Kordenbrock.
-Ray’s story on two more players leaving the Radford U. hoops team.
-Doug’s college notebook, leading with Cave Spring alum Josh Woodrum battling for the Liberty QB job.
JUST GONNA COPY AND PASTE…
…this AP lead because fact is stranger than fiction here: LOS ANGELES — A professional tennis referee beat her elderly husband to death with a coffee cup and used the broken handle to repeatedly stab him before judging a tennis match and getting a manicure, prosecutors said in court Wednesday.
NATIONAL HEADLINES: NFL to open season with replacement refs…Edwards denies rumor that he’s moving to Penske…Kim Clijsters retires…Harper goes deep twice as Nats break 5-game skid.
Before Kilmer was in "Top Gun," he starred in "Top Secret!"
Nobody got yesterday’s: “Top Secret!” Val Kilmer’s first-ever flick, a comedy in the mold of “Airplane!” and “The Naked Gun.” Vastly different genre today:
“All right, Dobson. It’s about time what we came here to do to what the good lord says in the good book is “a cleansing of the wicked.”
“Sir, you think we’re gonna die here today?”
“Dyin’s not an option. Now, you stick that back in that gray matter of yours and you make that stick. ‘Cause any other thought is gonna get you cold slabbed, toe tagged, and mailed home to your mamma in a plastic bag. Are we crystal?”
“Crystal, Sir.”
“Gentlemen, let’s do what God made us to do!”
NAME THAT TUNE:
Come get some of this
Don’t forget the innuendo
Play me like Nintendo
Never ever let go
Screaming so loud you’ll be hitting the crescendo
Do re mi fa sol la ti do
August 30, 2012 - 8:04 AM
You may be right that GT could walk into Lane and win, but they are going to have a fight on their hands. The stadium is going to be electricfied and full of energy. I have to believe that the players are gonna play. I think it’ll be a tug of war and slugfest, as you noted, but I feel that Virginia Tech may win. By a touchdown or less. And I’ll be there to watch. Win or lose, it’s going to be highly entertaining.
I enjoyed the column on Colston and had to laugh at the $120 toilet seat.
In GT’s favor: If you’re gonna get VT, you get ‘em early. See Boise, Bama, ECU, JMU, USC, etc…
ComeBbaby Come by K7
Uhh, that should be Come Baby Come by K7. I don’t know most of these, but I few just jump out.
Swing battah battah battah SWING!!!
CR scores on the song. Nicely done.
I think the Hokies will take this game on Monday night.
The things that commentators like to talk about GT being so good at, such as time of possession and controlling the ball… VT is better at those things.
Plus, I think if you give Bud Foster all summer to focus on one offense to defend, that he’ll come up with a solid plan.
And it appears that in your analysis of the game, you forgot one important detail… Al Groh will be in Lane Stadium. Al Groh does not win against the Hokies.
Another thing, Aaron, I can’t recall the last time Paul Johnson’s coached team won at Lane. Sure, they were very close, but they would do something boneheaded to give the ball back to Tech and seal the deal.
Tevin Washington threw an interception near the end of the 4th quarter that could have tied the game. Same year, he did it again against Georgia. That game was aided by David Wilson returning a kickoff for a touchdown. First time Paul Johnson coached against Virginia Tech, the game was won by 3, and Tyrod Taylor was the quarterback.
So, refresh my memory, how times did Paul Johnson win against Virginia Tech at Lane?
Cogent points in your selection of GaTech, though I’m not certain about the result. I do think it is one of ‘those’ games that VT could lose, and I’m calling it a coin flip.
I’m interested how willing Hokie Nation is to accept that the Hokie offense, with virtually only Logan Thomas returning, is going to be an improved version of last year’s veteran group. We’ve not had a good O-line for years, and this one is as untested as any in recent past.
We tend to start out slow. When the facts are told, Beamer said only a week of practice was spent specifically preparing for GaTech. As you mentioned, lots of extra time to prep doesn’t always translate into an advantage for us. You can have all summer, but if you don’t prep during that time, it doesn’t matter.
Another good point you made for this whole season – Time Of Possession. That’s been the silent factor in beamer”s AND Bud Foster’s success. If the defense isn’t on the field very long, they won’t give up as many points. So the news of the summer is that Beamer is experimenting with a fast paced offense? Umm… Que esta? Inexperienced offense going at a faster pace might just as easily translate into lower time of possession as higher time of possession. This seems to be just another of Stinespring’s fascinations with cobbling together a dozen different strategies to try to mold one. Not going to rant about Stinespring, just point out what I think is a weakness.
It will be an interesting season, and I think the end result will be quite similar to past seasons – 10/11 wins, disappointment against elite teams and in the postseason.
All your points are right, but your conclusion is WRONG. Final score VT 30 – 24 .
I think VT will win, but GT’s option offense is particularly difficult to defend right out of the gate.
Trevor, GT has only won in Blacksburg once, in 2006 (Calvin Johnson had 2 TD’s that afternoon).
Aaron has made a very wise pick, based on the objective facts and not emotion. Forget the past games, they mean absolutely nothing. GT will be more mentally tough and playing in the opposing team’s house has never really been a problem for the Jackets. This is about straight up power and GT has the edge; also they have the edge offensively. Say what you want about Logan Thomas, and he is good but the rest of the offense is very questionable. You will see chaos on the VT end, even if they are playing at home and on national tv. Final GT 28 – VT 10.
I hope you are wrong Aaron. I too have been concerned with the timing of this game. VT has a tendency to start the season slow. Especially on offense. It seems fans are forever talking about a weakness on VT ‘s offense. As much as I am excited to finally watch the Hokies play I kind of hope the game gets called for weather purposes. Maybe play them later. Then you risk injury. I don’t know..the team needs to be ready. Don’t forget about VT ‘s defense this game Aaron. They may give this GT online a fit. VT needs to find a balance having a great offense to equal it’s defense.
Aaron, I think you forgot one thing about GT’s offense early in the season is that they tend to put the ball on the ground a lot. I think VT’s D will be flying to the ball with fresh legs. However I do see a couple TOs by both thems but I have an feeling that VT is going to get up early & GT will get out of there game plan a little early. Do you remember what VT’s D did when GT tried to throw the ball? GO HOKIES!!!
AH — I think you’ve hit on it: the timing. Play this one in November and my pick is probably different; odd because the extra time to prepare in the preseason would normally be such an edge vs. GT. I think Tech’s trend of improving as the season progresses overrides that.
GT O-line vs. Tech D-line. Tremendous matchup. As they say at Tech’s practices, that’s “good on good.”
I’m not 100% sold that VT starts all that slow. What are we basing this opinion on?
Is this based on the fact that we’ve lost season openers to teams like Alabama, Boise State, LSU, USC, etc? If that’s the case, the only one of those games where we were blown off the field was LSU. I don’t think that losing to teams of this calibur in season openers constitutes a slow start.
JMU was an oddity. That one doesn’t really fit anywhere.
VT has started the season against some big time competition over the last several seasons with little to no success, that’s 100% true. I don’t think GT is on the same level with those teams mentioned above.
If we replaced those 4 opening game losses with cupcakes and won, would VT no longer perceived as a team that starts slow?
Another reason I’m so excited about the game is it’s going to be a night game at Lane Stadium, and I have never been to a night game before. I know I’m going to be in for a treat.
Win or lose, there’s still 11 games to be played after playing the Bumble Bees.
I. Can’t. Wait. My excitement have me feeling like I’m going to explode!
H24 — Fair point, but I’m not just looking the losses, per se. I’m looking at a 17-10 squeaker at ECU in Week 2 last year, huge early deficits (that the Hokies overcame) to ECU and N.C. State early in the 2010 campaign. Last year’s Clemson flop was Week 5; not especially early on the surface, but given that it was the conference opener after four nonleague pastries, it had sort of an opening day feel to it.
I know you guys probably get tired of the gambling references, but Frank is a covering machine in November and not in September. Relative to public expectations, then — not just our expectations around here, but the public’s at large — the Hokies underperform early in the year and overachieve during the ACC stretch run.
The secret to winning a national championship is to open with the Hokies. If we could play our spring game on Labor Day weekend, we’d fill that damn trophy case.
I also agree that it feels like VT sometimes starts slow, but when I think about hard evidence to support that, it’s hard for me to support my own perception. But you’re right, we’ve had a lot of close games in early season games. It’s just hard to say whether that’s VT being slow, or competition being better than the credit we give. Probably a combo of both.
What a good thing VT has Journell back because this one comes down to a kick. I have VT winning 13-10. The weather could be a factor as some forecasts are calling for rain now too. I believe it will be a real close low scoring game. VT will have to be really good on D this game because I don’t see the offense giving them any breathing room. It could be one mistake on defense costs VT the game.
I think an apology to the fans, VT staff and players will be expected Tuesday morning.
As Barry said, the past doesn’t matter.
I think special teams figures in this one. I think putting Roberts on the punt return team says Beamer has solid confidence in the D. I think he will take one to the house Monday night. Having Cody Journell back is a great asset also. As for the offence, well, we had pleasant surprises by freshmen running backs in the past, Darren Evans in 2008 and Ryan Williams in 2009. The Tech coaches just seem to have a way to bring out young stars. I say Tech by 11.
Spencer— I think the apology will be in order but it should go to the Georgia Tech staff for your underestimation of how good they will be on opening night. They might do more than just run the ball up and down the field at will, might even mix a few surprise passes into the game. Did you see any of the VT scrimmages? If so, were you really, really impressed?
As much as I respect and admire AM for his writing skills and his opinion, I am comforted by the fact that he came in LAST PLACE in 2011′s Fearless Forecasting! I do agree though with his reasoning ( VT’s habit of starting the season slowly, OL taking time to gel), I just hope he’s wrong this time.
As to the timing, that’s where I think you are off base, Aaron. VT, its staff, and many of the current players, are used to opening with a big name in recent years, and prepping for a big game. USC, Alabama, Boise State, NC State, even ECU – games that are against teams you have to actually prepare for.
GT has rarely done that, with the exception of a couple of openers against a very average ND program (one of which they lost), GT has been used to the cupcake first couple of games. This is Paul Johnson’s toughest opener, it isn’t Frank Beamer’s. I think that will be the difference.
Where I would give GT the nod would be in October. That’s when VT tends to lay an egg, historically, and GT kind of gets cranking against some better teams.
Someone needs to tell Lee Corso to stay away from Blacksburg. We don’t need another lightning strike!
Based on developments predicted today, there is one thing that may save the Hokies in this game. The weather; the rain would favor VT. Logan can slug thru the mud better than Tevon can. Just have to wait and see come game time.
Aaron what is the over/under for this game? If I was a betting man I would definitely take the under if it was less than 38. Latest forecast calls for heavy rain early in the day and then gradual clearing in the afternoon. It should be clear by gametime as of now.
If you go back to the early to mid 2000s VT always started hot out of the gate and then crapped out late in the year. What does this team have in common? What appears to be a nasty Defense and a strong proven leader at QB.
Last year we started slow until Logan found his rhythm. I think the deciding factor comes down to who tackles better. I don’t question that Bud will have the boys in position, I just know we tend to be a little soft at tackling at the beginning of the year.
Likewise can the bees wrap up and take down Logan without punching him in the head? With a banged up GT team who has been running a 5’9″ 182# (or thereabouts) QB as a Logan scout and improved TE play I think we’ll see a lot of quick hit dumps this year to Malleck and Coleman that I don’t think GT is going to have an answer for.
Imagine this, Power I or Pistol. Logan takes the snap and steps towards the line. GT crashes the middle b/c LT3 killed them last year. Logan takes a step back / sideways and hits the TE uncovered. CB tries to take down Mallet only to be met by Coles or Davis. Malleck runs 40 yards for the TD.
GT isn’t winning this one. Logan burnt them badly last year and they’re gonna sell out to stop him this time leaving other areas vacant.
You failed to mention the sixth reason you made your pick.
Heck fire, I have not looked at your stuff in months. At least I don’t remember. A friend had to point me towards this piece of fertilizer. So your pick was a victory; it mustered a plethora of readers and responses.
Personally, I think Tech should change their normal game plan and take the ball first. Score first and make GT play catch up. The triple option is not a catch-up offense. It’s a score first ball control offense. GT will put the ball in the air if they get down by 2 TD’s. If they have to go this route, I see a WVU, Clemson result. If they score first, a little more difficult. The triple option is not that difficult to defend. Tech just has to stay home and slow down the pursuit. If it was an invincible offense, everybody would be running it. It creates problems because it’s only seen once a year. The defense will stop it, Tech will win.
Aaron, your best point is the Hokie O-line, for the past several years it is BAD. Coaching it is bad, play is bad, and we have no indication there will be any change this year. For all the Hokies that disagree and quote the offensive stats, just think how good the offense could really be with the past offensive stars if they had blocking ????
AM you are entitled to your opinion and the one thing that does concern me more than anything else is our penchant for slow starts. Otherwise I think we have them hands down.
I say 37 – 24 Hokies.
I noticed MSN picked VT by 34 -24.
If Stewart Mandel picks us I will really be concerned.
Lane Stadium is not a myth. Yes, we lose there once in a while, no one is perfect. But I cannpt see how you compare an NFL stadium to Lane. True, there probably more VT fans in the stands for the Boise and USC games than the other side but the atmosphere is NOT Lane Stadium.
And please, TRY REALLY HARD to remember that the Vegas spread is not meant to reflect reality. It is meant to pick a point at which 1/2 the people will choose each side. The way that Vegas WINS the MOST is for the action to be evenly split between options. Vegas gives Lane credit in the spread because the bettors give credit to Lane in choosing which side to bet.
For the life of me I don’t get why this is so hard to understand. The “bookies” do not get hurt in an upset so long as the action is evenly split. Action moves betting lines once they are established. Nothing else.
If you don’t get this simple principle of bookmaking you will forever be a sucker and chasing shadows.
Right Zman. Vegas wants equal action on both sides, and the way to do that is to set a line that reflects the public’s perception of the two teams — regardless of how Vegas feels the outcome of the game will be. Therefore it IS a gauge of public opinion (or at least Vegas’ estimation of it).
Shaun–The over-under is 48.5.
Scott W — Excellent point. A diiiiiistant last, too.
Scott–Logan found his rythum last year because he had two NFL caliber receivers and an NFL caliber running back. They are not here anymore, is there anyone out there that can’t understand that fact? Take away the bonehead play by GT’s defensive guy last year and VT would have been toast. VT has never stopped GT’s triple option and they won’t do it this year either. The only thing that saves the Hokies in this game is the rain.
“…VT has never stopped GT’s triple option and they won’t do it this year either…”
Nevermind that pesky fact that ol’ coach Paul Johnson only has 1 win in 4 tries against that VT team that has “never stopped” his triple option.
VT held GT to 73 yards BELOW their season rushing average in their game last season… but like you said, VT has “never stopped” GT’s rushing attack…
It is useless to try to disprove someone like Barry. It would be better to argue with a tree than him. That was what I tried to tell Barry the other day, but it fell on deaf ears, and I’m deaf!
Look more closely at the VT wins over GT the past several years…..bonehead play by GT defense last year…..Nesbit’s broken arm at the end of the first half year before….GT wins year before…..bad call by Blacksburg refs against GT defense back before Tyrod ran out of bounds, giving the ball to VT when they should have punted…big play in the game. VT not as dominant as it looks on paper. Beamer is correct, it is still a “W” but be ready for different result Monday night (unless it rains hard)
Sounds to me like a lot of ifs, ands, and excuses to me, and it also sounds like you’re already looking to use the rain as an excuse on Monday night. If it rains, both teams have to play in it. The rain is no excuse.
I don’t remember anyone saying that VT was dominant on paper, or anywhere else. All I said was that GT has only won 1 of 4 against VT with Johnson and his triple option. I’m not wrong.
I know it, Trevor, you’re exactly right. I don’t have to prove anything to Barry though. I just gave two simple stats, and my stats are correct.
I will never convince yuse guys of the error your ways, I guess we will just have to wait for the game and see who the genius is. Jackets too big, too tough and too fast for the Hokies.
GT win? VT’s synergy trumps GT’s any day. A UVA ’83 football alum & AD for VA’s 1st homeschool football team, the Disciples. Rooting for former teammate Mike Sewak as GT O-Line coach, against Al Groh, for #72 VT frosh Augie Conte & VT January enrollee Jerome Wright, both Disciples as well as Coach Cav & Dave Braine, both @ UVA back in my day. Sewak & Groh cancel each other out so it’s 4-zip!!! VT “W” & UVA resounding “W” over UR. Nuff said…
I’m back and better than ever baby!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Boring sports are over give me my Hokies!!!!!!
JT sounds like another Hokie pyscho. Synergy???? How about fumblitis out of the gate by the Hokies all night long? The Jackets will sting!!!!!!
Catch-22
I know there has been a lot of hype lately in the media about VT’s great defense and that it might be the best ever. How much better it is than last year I wonder? Let’s look at last year. Tech played 7 non-cupcake games which is about par for them; they allowed 174 points or an average of about 25 per game. Bud who? Now that doesn’t appear to be a very good job by a defensive coach. What do you (objective) Tech fans think? Why should I think that VT will beat GT Monday night, based on last year’s VT performance? I just watched replays of the two Clemson-VT games, the Hokies were obliterated by the Tigers.
Barry, you told us past games don’t matter.
The final scores and the W/L in the columns does.
Beamer said last night on the news: “That’s why players come to vt, to play in big games.” I just wanted to laugh! Not 1 game against a top 10 team, then you get into the meat of the schedule; Austin Peay, Bowling Green and on and on.
Oh my GOSH!!
The only reason the rain helps is that it will make it harder for the GT O-line to illegally dive at knees and ankles…
And sorry, Coale was money last year, but for the past two seasons, Boykin was good not great. Last year Logan’s favorite targets at the end of the season were DJ Coles and Marcus Davis. Go back and watch the UVA and Michigan games and you’ll see Marcus dominate and DJ Coles busting through arm tackles.
Lastly I think we had better weapons on offense last year, but this year we have more and a wider variety. Holmes is back with good vision and decent cuts. Coleman in a speedy guy that’s hard to tackle and good in the flats. Scales is a battering ram, just try to take him head on.
Asante was all over the field in the spring and scrimmages. You’ll know the name Josh Stanford by the end of the year. Malleck is a much better receiver than he was last year and light-years ahead of Drager. Knowles is going to get behind the only question with him is will he catch the ball. That said he’s gonna take a couple to the house on KOs this year.
Logan is Logan and can make any throw there is. Teams are going to have to sell out to stop that little 15 yard QB sneak and in doing so they’re going to leave the flats wide open. If Stiney and OCain catch on to that, look for LT to have a big year with passing touchdowns.
While this is technically a new O-line, it’s not a bunch of freshman / sophomores. These are all road graders with lots of experience and are finally actual o-lineman rather than converted TEs. Our O-line is going to have an edge / meanness we have seen since Jake Grove. I’m not even slightly worried about our O being able to more the ball this year.
I look for Tech’s Defense to carry the day and the Hokies to victory, 33-17. Foster’s guys create a couple of early turnovers, giving the offense the short field to work with leading to a Hokies early lead. Then GT is forced out of their game plan and have to pass the ball to try and catch up. That’s where the defense will contribute to the scoring on a pick six to ice the game. Offense fills the seats, but defense wins championships. I really think that the defense shows up prepared and with a nasty attitude in stopping the triple option.
Barry, why do you compare last year’s result against Clemson to Monday’s result against GT?
Why wouldn’t you use last year’s VT vs GT game to compare Monday’s VT vs GT game?