College football Mythbusters: The bye week edition
The 2012 schedule hadn’t been out 15 minutes last winter before a few eagle-eyed observers noted an oddity in Virginia Tech’s slate: several teams have extra preparation time before they play the Hokies.
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Pittsburgh plays a Thursday night game before facing Virginia Tech, giving it two extra days of preparation. Both Cincinnati and Clemson have a bye the week before the Hokies, giving them a full seven days of additional time.
Virginia Tech has a Thursday night game at Miami in November before a game the following Thursday at home against Florida State, which will have five extra days of preparation. And lastly, Virginia is coming off a Thursday night game the week before playing the Hokies, getting two extra days for the regular season finale.
“It’s a conspiracy!” cried conspiracy theorists and people easily influenced by such claims.
The theory is that teams coming off byes have additional rest and more preparation time, thus giving them an advantage, although I’ve never really subscribed to that theory. All you really need to prepare for a game is a regular week. Everything beyond that is simply reviewing what you’ve already practiced. I could maybe buy the argument about more time to rest, particularly late in the season when injuries are mounting.
But what does recent history tell us? At the request of reader Mike Leonard, who sent in an email last week, I decided to take a look at what the results show.
I went back to 2002. Why? That’s as far as ESPN.com’s archives go. And that was the easiest way to look things up. Plus, that’s 10 full seasons of results, which is a nice, round number.
I picked out games in which the Hokies had a full week to prepare but their opponent had additional days. That excludes the James Madison loss from 2010, which had more to do with Virginia Tech’s abbreviated practice schedule and the emotional and physical toll of playing a game on five days’ rest after the Labor Day loss to Boise State.
It also excludes games in which both the Hokies and their opponents had more than a week of preparation/rest, if that amount of time was the same (i.e. both coming off a bye), although I’ve put Tech’s record in those games at the end.
The results were pretty conclusive. Here is a list of games in which Tech opponents had more preparation time/rest than the Hokies heading into the game, provided VT had at least a week to prepare:
- 2011: North Carolina — Nov. 5 to Nov. 17 — VT won 24-21 (Blacksburg) — 5 days more
- 2011: Boston College — Oct. 8 to Oct. 22 — VT won 30-14 (Blacksburg) — 7 days more
- 2010: Boston College — Sept. 11 to Sept. 25 — VT won 19-0 (Chestnut Hill) — 7 days more
- 2009: East Carolina — Oct. 27 to Nov. 5 — VT won 16-3 (Greenville) — 2 days more
- 2009: Miami — Sept. 17 to Sept. 26 — VT won 31-7 (Blacksburg) — 2 days more
- 2008: Miami — Nov. 1 to Nov. 13 — VT lost 16-14 (Miami) — 5 days more
- 2008: Florida State — Oct. 16 to Oct. 25 — VT lost 30-20 (Tallahassee) — 2 days more
- 2008: Nebraska — Sept. 13 to Sept. 27 — VT won 35-30 (Lincoln) — 7 days more
- 2008: North Carolina — Sept. 11 to Sept. 20 — VT won 20-17 (Chapel Hill) — 2 days more
- 2007: Virginia — Nov. 10 to Nov. 24 — VT won 33-21 (Charlottesville) — 7 days more
- 2007: Georgia Tech — Oct. 20 to Nov. 1 — VT won 27-3 (Blacksburg) — 5 days more
- 2007: LSU — Aug. 30 to Sept. 8 — VT lost 48-7 (Baton Rouge) — 2 days more
- 2006: Georgia Tech — Sept. 21 to Sept. 30 — VT lost 38-27 (Blacksburg) — 2 days more
- 2005: Boston College — Oct. 15 to Oct. 27 — VT won 30-10 (Blacksburg) — 5 days more
- 2005: Ohio — Sept. 9 to Sept. 17 — VT won 45-0 (Blacksburg) — 1 day more
- 2004: Miami — Nov. 20 to Dec. 4 — VT won 16-10 (Miami) — 7 days more
- 2003: Miami — Oct. 18 to Nov. 1 — VT won 31-7 (Blacksburg) — 4 days more
- 2003: Syracuse — Sept. 27 to Oct. 11 — VT won 51-7 (Blacksburg) — 7 days more
- 2002: Western Michigan — Sept. 14 to Sept. 28 — VT won 30-0 (Blacksburg) — 7 days more
- 2002: Texas A&M — Sept. 7 to Sept. 21 — VT won 13-3 (College Station) — 5 days more
- 2002: Marshall — Aug. 31 to Sept. 12 — VT won 47-21 (Blacksburg) — 1 day more
- 2002: LSU — Offseason to Sept. 1 — VT won 26-8 (Blacksburg) — 7 days more
That’s 22 games in which Virginia Tech’s opponent had more time to prepare. The Hokies went 18-4 in those games, a winning percentage of .818, which is better than the team’s .756 overall winning percentage in that time (102-33).
Of those 22 games, only two could be considered cupcakes that were outside of ACC play (Ohio in 2005, Western Michigan in 2002). For the purposes of this, I’ll include East Carolina from 2009 (won Conference USA championship) and Marshall from 2002 (Byron Leftwich was the quarterback and the Thundering Herd was ranked when it played Tech) in the more difficult/conference games category. The Hokies were still 16-4 in those contests, an .800 winning percentage.
A breakdown of how much extra rest those teams had is even more eye-opening:
- 7 days more rest than VT — Hokies are 8-0 in those games (BCx2, UVa, Neb, Mia, Syr, W. Mich, LSU)
- 5 days more rest than VT — Hokies are 4-1 in those games (UNC, Mia, GT, BC, TAMU)
- 4 days more rest than VT — Hokies are 1-0 in those games (Mia)
- 2 days more rest than VT — Hokies are 3-3 in those games (ECU, Mia, FSU, UNC, LSU, GT)
- 1 day more rest than VT — Hokies are 2-0 in those games (Ohio, Marsh)
This pretty much disproves the theory that the more preparation time a team has than Virginia Tech, the better it will fare. The Hokies are 13-1 against teams with four or more additional days of rest/preparation since 2002.
Now, there were 13 games in which both the Hokies and their opponents had the same amount of preparation time that was more than a week (usually when both were gearing up for a Thursday night game.). Here they are:
- 2011: Georgia Tech — Oct. 29 to Nov. 10 — VT won 37-26 (Atlanta)
- 2010: Georgia Tech — Oct. 23 to Nov. 4 — VT won 28-21 (Blacksburg)
- 2008: Maryland — Oct. 25 to Nov. 6 — VT won 23-13 (Blacksburg)
- 2008: Boston College — Oct. 4 to Oct. 18 — VT lost 28-23 (Chestnut Hill)
- 2007: Boston College — Oct. 13 to Oct. 25 — VT lost 14-10 (Blacksburg)
- 2006: Boston College — Sept. 30 to Oct. 12 — VT lost 22-3 (Chestnut Hill)
- 2005: Maryland — Oct. 8 to Oct. 20 — VT won 28-9 (College Park)
- 2004: Maryland — Nov. 6 to Nov. 18 — VT won 55-6 (Blacksburg)
- 2004: Georgia Tech — Oct. 16 to 28 — VT won 34-20 (Atlanta)
- 2003: West Virginia — Oct. 11 to Oct. 22 — VT lost 28-7 (Morgantown)
- 2003: Texas A&M — Sept. 6 to Sept. 18 — VT won 35-19 (Blacksburg)
- 2002: West Virginia — Nov. 9 to Nov. 20 — VT lost 21-18 (Blacksburg)
- 2002: Boston College — Sept. 28 to Oct. 10 — VT won 28-23 (Chestnut Hill)
Virginia Tech went 8-5 in those games. My guess is the record isn’t as great because those primetime matchups are usually set up to pair teams that should play a competitive contest.
But as for the theory that the extra rest/preparation time teams will get before playing the Hokies this year is a big disadvantage for Virginia Tech, I think it’s safe to conclude that myth is busted ™.
June 12, 2012 - 12:20 AM
You forgot the JMU loss. VT had 3 days to prepare whereas JMU had all summer. Not that prep was key, but I’m sure fatigue after the Boise game and trip from DC didn’t help.
Do you know start time of Cinncinati game?
Darren, I wrote in the post that that game was excluded. I looked at situations where Virginia Tech had a full week of preparation but its opponents had more, for the very reasons that you mentioned.
Andy, that is one of the coolest pieces of research I’ve ever seen.
That Miami loss had nothing to do with extra prep time, Tech, mostly the coaches, just blew that one in game. FSU, the QB goes down on the first series and threw the game plan out the window.
The other two, LSU and GT, those teams were just way better than Tech. That was a GT team that had Calvin Johnson, Tashard Choice and Reggie Ball. That GT team could’ve beaten Tech with 1 day prep, and that LSU team, the national champion LSU team, could’ve played a double-header and beat Tech on an hour’s rest/prep at that point in the season.
Andy, I have one simple question for you.
Who’s your favorite Mythbusters?
AB,thanks for digging out that info. I am curious what the record is when Tech has the advantage of extra days to prepare.
Great research Andy!! But keep in mind, past results do not guarantee future results as they say on Wall St. I think the fact that there are several games stacked up where the opponent has extra time to prepare may come into play this year….but I hope not.
From your statistics, I would surmise that the 2 days extra rest is the optimum. Just enough to rest, but not enough to let rust settle in or get out of rhythm. So, in some situations, extra time IS a benefit.
That might be the case. Although drawing a conclusion on a six-game sample might be a stretch. I like the logic, though.
As for stacking them up on one another, VT had four such games in 2002 in the first month and won all of them. I think it boils down to who you play, not when you play them.
Who’s my favorite Mythbuster? Don’t know if I have a favorite person on tha show. But the MacGyver episode I think is my favorite.
It would be interesting to see how VT has done when they have the extra time to prepare. I’m an Eagles fan and Andy Reid is a perfect 13-0 after their bye week. It would be interesting to know (not suggesting you do it Andy!) to see how all of the FBS does with more time to prepare. This tells you how good VT’s coaching has been. Interesting article, thanks.
Since 2002, given extra time to prepare, the Hokies are 13-2 when they have more rest than their opponent.
I didn’t count bowl games, because everybody is well-rested for those games, regardless of when they start preparing. Also, I went through these pretty quick without double-checking, so I might have missed one somewhere along the line.
Interestingly, VT hasn’t had a full week more prep/rest time than its opponent heading into any game. Probably because it plays so many Thursday night games and gets it worked out to have the bye incorporated into that somehow.
2002: vs. Rutgers, W 35-14, 2 extra days
2002: vs. Virginia, W 21-9, 3 extra days
2003: vs. UConn, W 47-13, 2 extra days
2004: vs. Western Michigan, W 63-0, 5 extra days
2004: at North Carolina, W 27-24, 2 extra days
2004: vs. Virginia, W 24-10, 2 extra days
2005: vs. Miami, L 27-7, 2 extra days
2006: vs. Southern Miss, W 36-6, 2 extra days
2006: at Miami, W 17-10, 2 extra days
2007: vs. Florida State, W 40-21, 2 extra days
2008: vs. Duke, W 14-3, 2 extra days
2009: vs. North Carolina, L 20-17, 5 extra days
2009: at Maryland, W 36-9, 2 extra days
2010: at North Carolina, W 26-10, 2 extra days
2011: at Virginia, W 38-0, 2 extra days
Not surprised by the outcome of the research at all. I believe that coaches pretty much say (at all competitive levels – high school up) that the run their team on a schedule: rest day, film day, light contact, run through-game plan, drill day in whatever sequence they use and with whatever individual preferences thay have.
Beamer often says that extra days don’t always help and that the team will prepare “the same way it always does” for a Saturday following a Thursday and so on. It would seem to me (without checking the calendar) that thw two days extra rest would be a Saturday after a Thursday game circumstance and that those two days would be really useful for bruises and bumps recovery.
I also tend to think that regardless of prep time that the best team wins 90% of the time. I don’t think any amount of prep would have helped JMU if the Hokies had won the Boise game, or, if the team had a full week to recover from the loss. That game’s outcome, too me, was clearly based on emotional energy.
I also doubt that Georgia Tech was that much better. As I recall, this was the first time we had seen their offense on the field. It is one thing to watch film and practice against the scout team and another to see it first hand. I think we had to play them once to get our defense down. Foster as much as said this the week before the game. They haven’t had anywhere near that level of success against us since (and granted they don’t have Megatron anymore).
Awesome, thanks Andy.