Virginia Tech vs. Cincinnati: Who has the edge?
Many have said this is a game that will tell us a whole lot more about just where Virginia Tech is as a team this year. I’m inclined to agree, since Cincinnati looked very good in an early season win against Pittsburgh, which then hammered the Hokies.
Here’s a look at the matchups.
Feel free to offer your own thoughts on the game in the comments section below. And be sure to leave your predicted score. We’ll see who has it right after Saturday’s game.
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Virginia Tech vs. Cincinnati
- Where: FedEx Field, Landover, Md.
- When: Saturday, 3:32 p.m.
- TV: ESPNU
- Records: Virginia Tech 3-1, 1-0 ACC; Cincinnati 2-0, 1-0 Big East
- Series: Virginia Tech 5-4
- Last meeting: Hokies won 20-7 in 2009 Orange Bowl
- Line: Virginia Tech by 6.5
When Virginia Tech passes
The Hokies’ passing game still hasn’t been as sharp as it could be. Quarterback Logan Thomas was just 11-for-26 against Bowling Green, although he had several throwaways and a lacerated thumbnail on his throwing hand, so that could have affected him (he says it’s fine this week). Tech will need wide receiver Marcus Davis to be a consistent threat. He’s capable (witness his 129-yard, 1 TD day at Pitt), but he doesn’t always play up to his potential. Against Bowling Green last week, he had two drops on screens that were well set up. Dyrell Roberts has had catches of longer than 40 yards in each of the last two games. The key will be pass protection. The Hokies have allowed eight sacks through four games. No wonder Thomas doesn’t feel totally comfortable in the pocket.
That’s important because Cincinnati likes to bring the pressure. The Bearcats are tied for fifth nationally, averaging four sacks a game. Defensive end Walter Stewart is a big reason for that, with a pair of sacks through two games to go with 3.5 tackles for a loss. Nose tackle John Williams, who transferred from Central Michigan after graduating, had 1.5 sacks and two tackles for a loss against Pitt. It’s in Cincy’s nature. The Bearcats ranked first nationally in tackles for a loss last year and were second in sacks (although it lost DL Derek Wolfe, the Big East Defensive Player of the Year, and LB J.K. Schaffer). The secondary is a question, though. Although the Panthers didn’t score many points, they threw for 278 yards in the opener. The Cincy secondary is experienced (three seniors, one junior), but this is a group that ranked 99th nationally against the pass last year. If the Hokies can protect Thomas — a big if — they might be able to have success here.
Edge: Virginia Tech.
When Virginia Tech runs
The Hokies got their running game going for really the first time this year last week. Of course, Tony Gregory, who led the charge at tailback with 68 yards, will not travel this week after having soreness and stiffness in his surgically repaired left knee. That will put the onus on Michael Holmes, J.C. Coleman and Martin Scales to move the ball. Holmes will start but the other two should have roles. Thomas might be big here. He ran with an aggression last week that fans hadn’t seen much of this year, lowering his shoulder a few times to dole out some punishment on defenders. If he becomes a threat in the ground game again, it diversifies Virginia Tech’s attack. The o-line, again, will have to prove that it is physical enough to match up with Cincinnati up front.
That’s a big question. The Bearcats are a veteran group there, with six seniors in their front seven. Linebacker Greg Blair, the younger brother of NBA player DeJuan and a Lackawanna Junior College transfer, leads the team with 17 tackles. Fellow linebacker Maalik Bomar has made 27 consecutive starts and is UC’s active leading tackler with 151 stops. This defense had 10 tackles for a loss against Pittsburgh and ranks 39th nationally giving up 123.5 rushing yards per game. Pitt ran for 137 yards against this defense but took 42 carries to do so, a 3.2-yard average, so moving the ball against Cincinnati on the ground will be a tall task.
Edge: Cincinnati
When Cincinnati passes
This hasn’t necessarily been the strong point of the offense. Quarterback Munchie Legaux has been efficient this year, going 34-for-55 (61.8 percent) for 413 yards and four touchdowns. But he also threw two interceptions against FCS Delaware State. The jury is still out on his effectiveness as a passer, though. He completely only 47 percent of his passes in five games last year, with five touchdowns to four interceptions. Speedster Ralph David Abernathy IV, a running back, is the leading receiver this year, with seven catches for 94 yards, but receivers Anthony McClung (6 catches, 74 yards, TD) and Kenbrell Thompkins (5 catches, 70 yards) are threats as well. Alex Chisum sat out against Delaware State but is expected to play this week, although Damon Julian, who had four catches for 62 yards and a touchdown last week, might challenge him for the spot.
The Pittsburgh game notwithstanding, Virginia Tech has been solid against the pass (granted, that’s against an option team, an FCS team and a MAC team). The Hokies rank ninth nationally in passing yards allowed (143.5 ypg) and had a bounceback performance last week, particularly cornerback Antone Exum, who had an interception. Having Kyle Fuller back at cornerback after a shoulder injury at Pitt was a huge boost. Except a fair amount of nickel this week too, with Detrick Bonner moving to nickelback and Michael Cole coming in at safety. The Hokies only have six sacks through four games, a surprising total given the depth of the line. Ends James Gayle and Tyrel Wilson have four of them. Cincinnati has allowed only three sacks in two games, but only two of its linemen have started more than 10 career games. This could be a group the Hokies can take advantage of, if they get stronger play out of their defensive tackles.
Edge: Virginia Tech.
When Cincinnati runs
This is where the Bearcats are tough. Legaux (142 yards) is a threat to keep the ball. Running back George Winn (242 yards, 2 TD) is more of a between-the-tackles guy. And Abernathy (72 yards) is a speedster who can get to the edge. It’s an offense that stresses the entire defense, forcing it to cover all of the field. The Bearcats are averaging 6.5 yards per carry and gashed Pittsburgh for 259 yards on the ground in the opener. Legaux had 117 yards on only six carries in that game. Cincinnati will spread things out and force opponents to make tackles on its athletes in space, trying to take advantage of its athletes.
That’ll be the challenge for the Hokies, who shored up their tackling a bit against Bowling Green but still weren’t perfect. Linebacker Jack Tyler (42 tackles) and Bruce Taylor (23 tackles) will need to be sharp, as will support from the safety spot. Kyshoen Jarrett (26 tackles, 2.5 TFLs) is the leader there. Tech shook up the linebackers some, moving redshirt freshman Ronny Vandyke to the top at whip linebacker. At 6-foot-3, 215 pounds, he’s an athletic specimen and brings more physicality to the position. The tradeoff is his inexperience. Still, Tech might employ the nickel quite a bit today, especially if Cincinnati lines up with three or more wide receivers. Defensive coordinator Bud Foster said the Hokies have to match athletes with athletes.
Edge: Cincinnati.
Special teams
Tech’s special teams continue to be solid. The Hokies are fifth nationally in punt returns thanks to Jarrett’s exploits (his 35.4-yard average is tops nationally) and are in the top 23 nationally in both kick and punt coverage. A.J. Hughes (39.8 avg.) has quietly given Virginia Tech what it needed at punter — someone who is capable of getting the ball downfield, even if it’s not a booming punt. And Cody Journell is 4-for-5 on field goals. The only unit still lagging is the kick return team, which is averaging 19.75 yards per return and has yet to provide a big highlight.
The Bearcats have threats in the return game. Abernathy has a 31.3-yard kick return average, with a long of 47. McClung is averaging 16.4 yards on punt returns, 17th nationally. Kicker Tony Miliano (3-3 FG) has been perfect. While punter Pat O’Donnell (41.7 avg.) has been good, his coverage has not. Cincinnati has given up 11 yards per punt return, although that’s a small sample (three returns).
Edge: Push.
Coaching
Frank Beamer generally gets his team going after an early season loss, and last week’s lopsided shutout at least showed that the Hokies weren’t going to sulk from their loss at Pittsburgh. Generally, Beamer’s career accolades are enough to give Virginia Tech the edge in this category, but Butch Jones is no pushover. He led Central Michigan to two MAC championships and, after a 4-8 mark his first year at Cincinnati, guided the team to a 10-3 record and share of the Big East championship last year. He’s an upwardly mobile coach and, if the trend holds at Cincinnati, won’t be there for long before a bigger program snatches him up.
Edge: Push.
Prediction
This is a tough game to pick. Yes, Cincinnati hammered Pittsburgh, which hammered Virginia Tech, but the transitive property in football rarely holds. My thought is that Pittsburgh ran into a buzzsaw at Cincinnati in that opener. The Panthers had a short week after a demoralizing loss (Saturday to Thursday after a Youngstown State defeat) and Cincinnati was playing its first game at home on a Thursday night. It’s very possible everything was just lined up in the Bearcats’ favor that night. Or it’s possible Cincy is that good. It’s tough to get a sense after only two games, particularly when one was against Delaware State (a game in which the Bearcats committed six turnovers, by the way). You can get a better handle on Virginia Tech, a flawed team that still has a chance to be pretty good. The defense seems like it’s back on track after the Pitt debacle, although Cincinnati and its running game will be a tough test. The offense still hasn’t gotten any consistency, but Thomas broke out a little on the ground last week and, given the Bearcats’ secondary, might have a chance to do the same in the air this week. This was the time last year when he started to put things together. If he does so again, I’ll take the Hokies in a close one.
Prediction: Virginia Tech 20, Cincinnati 17.
September 28, 2012 - 11:40 AM
Unlike the Pitt game, there won’t be any “we didn’t take them seriously” kind of nonsense from the VT defense. The fact of the matter is, we saw against Michigan’s spread and Denard Robinson that the VT defense *CAN* be very good and I expect to see a VT defense that’s closer to that than the sorry excuse of a “defense” that was on the field against Pitt.
The VT offense continues to get off to slow starts. I would count the GT game because after that superb opening drive, the VT offense quickly regressed into nothingness. The VT offense has to come out firing. Slow starts against A-P and BGSU are one thing, but another against Pitt and this UC team.
It’s true, Andy, Logan will need to dole out punishment on his runs. And if holes are hard to come by, I would actually employ Scales frequently, too, because if punishment is dealt out, then it is punishment even if it is only a 1-yard gain.
I also look at the short passing game. Yes, UC can bring the heat, which is why short passing is critical. Plus, it helps SPREAD THE FIELD which helps the run game above. So no drops, PLEASE, VT receivers. And deliver the short throws, LT. And that 85-yd Marcus Davis TD against Pitt was off what again? A SHORT PASS.
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Key question: Will LT be throwing the ball because he HAS to or because he WANTS to? If the latter, VT wins. If the former, watch out.
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That being said, VT tends to do better than expected when it’s an under-the-radar, unranked team or a team that has been recently “exposed” or “embarrassed.” Which is why they rebound from slow starts year after year. Rational? Maybe not. Reality? Yes. So why not predict the same?
VT 24, UC 19
Andy, I believe you’re right but think the hokies may lose this one by 10. It will be a late heroic comeback attempt by Logan that he won’t be able to achieve. I hope I’m wrong but if they lose… It will be a hopeful no name bowl game for the hokies. – Hughes it or Lose it? @hughesorlose
Hokies over Cincinnati 31-7.
Baxter,
Good thoughts and insights but Denard Robinson is highly overrated so therefore stopping him is also. Notre Dame should have won by alot more than they did last week.
I am not sure how I follow that when VT passes VT gets the edge (per Andy’s analysis). VT has not been able to pass protect. When LT hits a receiver it seems to be dropped far too many times, and when they are open he seems to missfire. They cannot run well between the tackles, and Beamer does not have a very good record of coming from behind when trailing in the 4th quarter (and, yes, I know we trailed in the 4th quarter of the GT game, still, his record when trailing in the 4th is not very good). I for one, think playing in a half empty stadium helps VT.
Keep in mind, this is Cinncy’s first “road” game of the season.
Not having Gregory also helps. With less choices it gives the coaches less shuffling and will make it easier to locate the hot back (if there is one).
I bleed maroon and orange, but picked Cinncy.
I think Cincinnati’s secondary is vulnerable if Thomas can get passes off. It’s pretty close to a push there, but I think if Thomas comes around, that would give VT the edge there.
SORRY, I CORRECTLY PREDICTED THE PITTSBURGH UPSET………
VA TECH LOSES AGAIN!………….CINCINNATI – 26………..VIRGINIA TECH CHOKIES – 16
I love VT but I guess I’m like the guy from Misouri, you’ve got to show me!! Last year Logan was twice the QB he is this year, I know some recievers have dropped some easy catches, but Logan is missing a lot of easy throws that are not even close. I don’t know what went on at the camp he went to this summer or if that has anything to do with it but if he doesn’t improve by leaps and bounds he will be back at VT next year, no NFL in the near future. I also cant wait to see how the defense plays Saturday, I cant believe they have played as bad as they have, not typical Bud Foster. Lets go Hokies, play with pride!!!
The Hokies match up well with small offensive lines, and Cincy is smallish upfront. I look for James Gayle to go off and the Hokies to bother Munchie all day. I look for the O-Line to do OK, and LT to make enough happen to get the win.
Score – 20-7 Hokies, 2008 Orange Bowl Style.
I like Tech by a slim margin over Cincy. This will be a good game to see how well the Hokie defense does and will do in the future games this year.
Two things, the offense is the same old thing we have seen for years, very predictable. I know Coach Beamer does not read the papers but maybe he should and listen to TV also. Quotes from opther coaches such as “we know what they are going to do we just have to stop them” are not uncommon – see Athalon Sports from years back and in the fisrt game this year the TV color guy said VT has a lot of formations but they run the same plays – true 25 years ago – true today. They will never fill the trophy case unles offensive scheme improves. I had hoped Shane Beamer would bring some SC stuff with him but the head coach rules. Do not blame play calling, a new design and new plays are needed especially to prevent our receivers from running together. Also, some TV coaches are now saying Foster’s defenses are getting too predictible also. We cannot get to the QB this year with a vetern line – why is that? If no changes from last week it will be a long weekend in MD. I hope not.
VT 17-13. Game of the dueling field goal kickers.
Jay,
Wow! Never heard the CHOKIES before! That’s a good one! Also how about all the consecutive 10 win season Chokies or the 4 time ACC Champion Chokies since 2004! Hope you don’t mind if I use that one! Also what about the Commonwealth Chokie Cup that we have held for 8 Plus years! Thanks again! If that is a Chokie sign me up please!!!!!! PS: Ga. Tech just scored again on the HOO-Chokes????…… UVA does! Just saying
Locking forward to huge points for Vt and strong DEFENCE!
Fuller brothers have big day 31-10 VT!
Brian, have you ever heard the 2 words in BLEAKSBURG NATIONAL CHAMPIONS or we are ranked #1.Keep the streak alive CHOKIES as of today 51,396 days an counting.
Let’s go Hokies !!!
Just what is this crap about all the Chokie’s past accomplishments, which by the way was an all ACC (almost competent competition) affair have to do with this game? Brian, let’s hear the stats on their laurels OUTSIDE of the ACC in the same time frame. Find any? This isn’t the past, this is 2012. Cincy by 17.
Brian, I can’t believe you’ve never heard the word Chokies before! It’s such an outdated, ridiculous,and incorrect term. I guess that’s all Jay’s got, poor thing. It’s a really good thing for Jay that Hokie is the only team name that rhymes with choke.
Enjoy the game folks! Go Hokies!
It’s hard to take Jay’s statement about his Pittsburgh prediction seriously when he calls Tech the “Chokies”. He obviously is a hater. Probably picked Austin Peay and Bowling Green too. And the post is in caps just to show he’s not over the top.
I smell a choke job coming by those Hokies “Chokies” here today. Cincy by 14 here today. Get use to it these over rate Hokies must learn how to play instead of making excuses that might be used here today when they Choke again.
Ancient Bobcat,
Go back to your Mr. Pibb and the Moonpie . I know there is a Marathon of “Golden Girls” reruns on TV today. So your set. I take where VT is at any day of the week. An so would anyone else if your seriously honest with yourself. Hey did you get your U. of Cinn. degree with on line courses or did you mail your papers in each week. Big Least is a great Conference……… For Women’s BASKETBALL!!!! Even if we lose where still not in the Big LEAST! I don’t need to give you stats, all you need to know is that the ACC took Tech, Miami and Boston College not the Univ. of Cinn. when they wanted to matter in FOOTBALL. Now! Go Look in the mirror and say “I’m OK, people like us just as we are”. Have a Great Day! BOBCAT! Don’t forget your medications! B
Tech will loose and we will hear the excuses AGAIN!! Bitter do you ever pick Tech to loose you Homer
Picked them to lose the Sugar Bowl. They did.
I’m talking regular season. Between you and WDBJ you would think this is the only team around. Again they suck as usual and we will hear all the excuses!
Sugar Bowl was such a hard pick. Even though it was close it shouldn’t have been. Cody the convict may have been the difference if he wasn’t so stupid