Virginia Tech at North Carolina: Who has the edge?
So now what does everyone think of the Hokies? They’ve played five games, with two losses to Big East teams, a squeaker against Georgia Tech (a team that doesn’t look so hot now) and wins over two cupcakes. North Carolina doesn’t fall into that latter category, making this week’s game a good barometer for just where Virginia Tech stands in the ACC.
Here’s a look at the matchups. Feel free to offer your own thoughts on the game in the comments section below. And be sure to leave your predicted score. We’ll see who has it right after Saturday’s game.
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Virginia Tech at North Carolina
- Where: Kenan Stadium, Chapel Hill, N.C.
- When: Saturday, 12:29 p.m.
- TV: ACC Network
- Records: Virginia Tech 3-2, 1-0 ACC; North Carolina 3-2, 0-1 ACC
- Series: Virginia Tech leads 18-10-6
- Last meeting: Hokies won 24-21 last year in Blacksburg
- Line: North Carolina by 5.5
When Virginia Tech passes
Something still didn’t look right with Logan Thomas until the second half last week against Cincinnati (although honestly you could say that about the whole team). But he was 10-for-17 for 205 yards a touchdown and an interception in the second half. That pick was costly, though. He’s throw five of his six interceptions in Tech’s two losses. Marcus Davis had 101 receiving yards last week, his second 100-yard effort his year. But he was nearly invisible for a half. Tech will need to involve him more. That goes for Dyrell Roberts and Corey Fuller too. Both made plays last week, so they have the capability. The line, for all the hits it has taken, only gave up one sack last week to Cincinnati’s difficult front seven. That’s an improvement.
They’ll need to be on their game against North Carolina’s active pass rush. The Tar Heels have 14 sacks this year, tied for 22nd nationally. Tackle Sylvester Williams has been a beast, with 4.5 sacks and 7.5 tackles for a loss so far. Kareem Martin has two sacks and seven tackles for a loss. North Carolina’s pass defense looks good on paper, ranking 33rd nationally by giving up 200.4 yards per game. But those stats are skewed by performances against lesser competition. Wake Forest threw for 362 yards against this team. Louisville had 279 and three touchdowns. The secondary is young, with two juniors, a sophomore and a redshirt freshman, but the Tar Heels have been ballhawks, with seven interceptions through five games (granted, four of them came against lowly Idaho). If the Virginia Tech passing game from the second half of the Cincinnati game shows up, the Hokies have a chance to move the ball here.
Edge: Virginia Tech
When Virginia Tech runs
Michael Holmes began to show why coaches think he can be a featured back. He ran for 60 yards against Cincinnati, 48 of which came on a fourth quarter drive that ended with him getting into the end zone for a go-ahead touchdown. Thomas (129 yards, 3 TDs this year) is a threat as well, and J.C. Coleman showed spurts of what he can do last week when in the game. Of course, there was also the first-half ground game last week, which produced 35 yards on 13 carries. It’s truly a Jekyll-and-Hyde offense. The key, of course, is the offensive line. Tech had an interior group of Michael Via (LG), Caleb Farris (C) and Brent Benedict (RG) in the fourth quarter and moved the ball well. From the sounds of it, it might be David Wang (LG), Andrew Miller (C) and Via (RG) to start this week. Until that group finds some kind of consistency, it’ll be tough sledding.
UNC has been especially strong in stopping the run, allowing 96.5 yards per game, the 16th fewest nationally. That’s been more consistent than the pass defense. Only Louisville (183 yards) has really been able to move the ball against the Tar Heels’ front. Carolina has held three opponents this year to fewer than three yards a carry (Elon, Wake Forest, Idaho) and another to 3.3 (East Carolina). Linebacker Kevin Reddick has been strong in the front seven, with 30 tackles and 5.5 tackles for a loss. UNC’s defensive line has been an active group here too. The team has 43 tackles for a loss through five games, an average that ranks fifth nationally. Tech will have its hands full keeping the Tar Heels out of the backfield on runs.
Edge: North Carolina
When North Carolina passes
Quarterback Bryn Renner has taken to new coach Larry Fedora‘s hurry-up, spread offense. The junior is completing 63.8 percent of his passes this year for 1, 422 yards and 14 touchdowns to four interceptions. That’s 284.4 yards per game. And he’ll spread it around. Seven Carolina players have at least nine catches this year. Six have at least two receiving touchdowns. Erik Highsmith, a 6-foot-3, 190-pound senior, is the most-targeted receiver with 23 catches for 243 yards and a pair of scores. But six receivers are averaging between 37.3 and 55.4 yards per game, including running back Giovani Bernard (12 catches, 112 yards, 2 TD) and tight end Eric Ebron (17 catches, 277 yards, 3 TD). So it’s clear that UNC has no qualms about throwing to everybody.
That’s bad news for a Virginia Tech team light in capable pass defenders. Cincinnati exploited that last week when Kyle Fuller came out of the game because of cramps. Donaldven Manning quickly gave up two passes for 59 yards, one of which went for a touchdown. There’s not much help on the way. The Hokies will have to go with what they have. Right now, that group is Fuller and Antone Exum at corner, Kyshoen Jarrett and Detrick Bonner at safety and Michael Cole in a nickel addition. That group gave up 392 passing yards last week to a Cincinnati team that wasn’t known for its passing (partly due to Tech’s coverage choices). It’ll be interesting to see if Bud Foster leaves his cornerbacks on an island as frequently this week. The d-line will need to get going. It put pressure on the quarterback last week but still has only seven sacks in five games.
Edge: North Carolina
When North Carolina runs
Bernard has battled a knee injury this year, missing the Wake Forest and Louisville games. Not coincidentally, the Tar Heels lost both of those contests. When he’s played, he’s been dynamic. The sophomore is averaging 7.3 yards per carry and has four touchdowns. But UNC has other rushers. A.J. Blue has 257 yards and four touchdowns; Romar Morris has 235 and one score. All are averaging 5.1 yards per carry or better. That’s a testament to North Carolina’s offensive line with four returning starters, which includes a pair of second-team All-ACC picks last year, guard Jonathan Cooper and tackle James Hurst. Don’t be fooled into thinking Fedora’s offense is all passing. His Southern Miss crew last year ranked 20th nationally in rushing. The Tar Heels this year rank 53rd nationally, but are averaging 172.6 rushing yards per game, which is fourth in the ACC.
Virginia Tech is 75th nationally in rushing defense, giving up 168.2 yards per game. But the game plan against Cincinnati was to eliminate the run first, and the Hokies executed that part nearly flawlessly. The Bearcats finished with 103 rushing yards, averaging 3.32 yards per carry. Inside linebackers Jack Tyler (11 tackles, .5 TFL) and Bruce Taylor (7 tackles, 1 TFL) had what Foster described as “monster games.” The d-line, particularly Derrick Hopkins (4 tackles, 1 TFL, 1 sack), was a big reason for that success too, preventing Cincinnati from getting to the edge. That group will have its work cut out for it this week, but it might have a chance. Sixty-one percent of UNC’s rushing yards this year came against Elon and Idaho, so its stats are somewhat misleading.
Edge: Push
Special teams
Perhaps the most pleasant surprise for Virginia Tech this year has been punter A.J. Hughes, who had boots of 55, 56, and 57 yards against Cincinnati last week. His 41.29-yard average is now sixth in the ACC, which is far more than the Hokies could have hoped for a true freshman. Cody Journell is 5-for-6 on field goals. Jarrett’s 25.1-yard punt return average is third nationally, and Tech’s coverage teams, particularly Alonzo Tweedy (9 special teams tackles), have been outstanding. The kick return team (20.92 avg., 69th nationally) remains average.
North Carolina has been solid here too. Punter Tommy Hibbard is averaging 42.2 yards per punt. Kicker Casey Barth is 7-for-8. The Heels, thanks to Roy Smith and Bernard, are averaging 14.8 yards per punt return, 19th nationally. Although their kick returns have been average too, their coverage teams have been great. UNC is allowing only .83 yards per return, fifth nationally (doing it mostly by only allowing six returns all year). The kick coverage team ranks 27th nationally, about where Virginia Tech is.
Edge: Push
Coaching
Frank Beamer has a tendency to have teams that perform poorly in early season, non-conference games, but he usually gets the ship righted for ACC play. This might be one of his toughest challenges, with Tech having lost twice before the end of September for only the third time the last 17 years Of course, the other two times that happened (’04, ’10), the Hokies won the ACC, so there’s that. Fedora seems to have the Heels on the right track right now, even though they’re ineligible to win the ACC or play in the postseason this year because of NCAA sanctions. The Tar Heels don’t play Florida State or Clemson this year, so Virginia Tech and Miami in a few weeks are their biggest games. They should be properly amped. But, based on Foster’s, ahem … enthusiasm earlier this week, I’m inclined to think the Hokies coaches will have their team ready to play.
Edge: Virginia Tech
Prediction
I expect Virginia Tech to come out and play this week. I don’t think the Hokies are as out of sorts as they’ve shown in the first month. Plus, consider they are 13-0 in ACC games in the state of North Carolina since joining the league in 2004. And honestly, I don’t think North Carolina (which is 0-1 in the league, by the way), has arrived quite as much as everyone seems to think (UNC has gone from a 2-point favorite to open up to 5.5). It’s why I’m predicting another close game. That said, the Tar Heels can pass the ball efficiently, something that the Hokies have had trouble slowing down. I expect both passing offenses to be able to have some success, but North Carolina’s is a little more refined right now and has played at a more consistently high level. I say Tech’s secondary depth catches up to it again, especially with UNC wanting to push the pace. That’ll be the difference in the second half of a close game.
Prediction: North Carolina 27, Virginia Tech 23.
October 5, 2012 - 11:03 AM
I think we’ll win this one but wouldn’t be surprised if Andy is right. We looked so bad against PIT but CIN was one of those things where you snatch defeat from victory.
We certainly need to win for this season to have any chance of being something other than a total disaster.
Turkeys are dangerous when cornered.
I think the Hokies will come alive this week,but I think the key is to get the Tight-ends involved more,Thomas has to have a safety valve to throw to. my prediction is Hokies 30 Tarhills 27.
Overlooked in the conversation about the VT offense is that, at least right now, it looks like the players are not playing with CONFIDENCE regarding the plays and schemes that are being selected. Lack of confidence in the coaching staff can be an incurable cancer. Receivers are not completing their blocks and they are not trying hard to separate from the defense when they are not the primary receiver. LT (as all of the predecessors under O’Cain and Stinespring before him have) is locking onto the primary receiver early. It is a bad combination.
UNC is a worse matchup than UC or Pitt and we know how those games turned out. They pass the ball well and VT does not train their defenders to turn around and look for the ball (or apparently to commit interference penalties rather than letting the guy get behind you for a TD).
I think we will know by the end of the first quarter. By then we will know if it is the same old VT team we have been seeing or if the old ACC sheriff is back in town (VT). VT is the dog in this game and sometimes it is not the size of the dog in the fight, it is the size of fight in the dog that metters. Let’s see if VT has the fire in its belly. We’ll know that early.
Afraid this will be the second stop in what will be a five game losing streak. The good news is when we are 3-6 the pressure will unbearable and Frank will be forced to rid the team of Stinespring and Newsome.
Just for the record to all those indifferent or anti-Hokie readers, Andy predicted that the beloved Hokies will LOSE. We “homers” hope he is incorrect but do appreciate the honest assessment of what the game could bring. Thanks Andy for keeping things honest and doing an exceptional job in your coverage. Let’s go VT! Homer prediction VT 24, UNCheat 17 Let’s hope VT wins otherwise we’ll have to talk Zman down from jumping off the New River Gorge Bridge. Appreciate your dedication Zman – Go Hokies.
Farris only played one series in the fourth quarter. Miller was in the remainder of the fourth.
I’m going with UNC here based on my 3rd down conversion % research.
UNC’s offense converted 47.96% on 3rd down (27th in the FBS) while VT’s 39.13% is tied 75th in the FBS with Indiana University. Yes, that Indiana.
Defensively, UNC has the edge 32.89% (30th in the FBS) where VT’s 34.94% is 38th in the FBS.
Yeah, I’m definitely going with UNC.
@Bob H, I have noticed the same thing with the secondary. They aren’t locating the football and that is puzzling as that’s what they are trained to do, yet they aren’t reading the receivers’ eyes.
I hope that Tech proves me wrong, but just by looking at the statistics gives me pauses. Also, this is the same metric I used to determine my pick last season between Clemson and Virginia Tech. For the record, I picked Clemson to win over Tech, based on the 3rd down conversion percentage.
Well I am certainly glad they play the games! Listening to you “Hokie” fans, we should just caulk up a loss and not even bother with the travel down there!
A true fan believes in their team each and every game! I predict a HOKIE VICTORY!
gobble, gobble, gobble
I picked UNC to beat VT 20-17. I think the defense steps up to mostly contain UNC, but I still don’t feel confident with the offense’s ability to score, they’re just too inconsistent. But that said, this game could quickly go higher scoring if the secondary for VT breaks down again, and if VT goes no-huddle on offense if they get behind early (likely given what we’ve seen).
VT has one thing going for them. Randy King (last place in the FF) picked UNC to win.
OMG call me an ambulance Bitter picked Tech to loose. Pigs must be as to fly!!
I feel like VT has not reached its potential on offense, which is a much better situation to be in than “simply stinking.” I still feel there is room for growth, particularly in the execution department. When you have Marcus Davis and can line up guys who can run like Roberts and Fuller (and all THREE guys are fifth year seniors) on the other side of the field, there is no reason you can’t be more dangerous. Holmes and Coleman are still finding their way and can only get better. That is why, though I am far from being a devoted supporter of the way VT’s offense runs things, that I simply CANNOT write it off yet, particularly with the way it played late against Cincy (which is NOT a scrub defense).
On defense though, if you’re thin in the secondary then you’re thin. Players don’t grow on trees.
Considering that VT’s offense didn’t show up for at least an entire half and VT’s defense faded badly down the stretch and STILL, VT almost beat Cincy means that there is no reason to believe they can’t steal one on the road in North Carolina, a state that VT has done very well in as Andy pointed out.
Two years ago, Marcus Davis had a breakout game in Chapel Hill. Maybe he’ll get to relive those memories on Saturday as VT’s offense builds upon its torrid 4th q. against Cincy’s defense.
VT 27, UNC 24
Tar!
Heels!
I don’t think that the key to this game is the tight ends, or execution, or the running game, or the thin secondary.
Call me crazy, but I think the key to this game is points. I think that if VT goes out and scores more points than UNC, that they’ll find a way to win this ball game.
Adam Michael. I’m just as enthusiastic and excited for the game and I too hope to bring a dub’ya back from Chapel Hill. Just because I don’t think VT will every game from now until eternity doesn’t mean I’m not a “true” fan.
Good point Baxter J. There is definitely room for improvement in consistency and performance. Let’s hope for giant steps forward on Saturday. Go VT!
There’s a lot of talk about VT’s lack of secondary depth, but VT ranks much higher in passing defense (29th) than they do in rushing defense (75th).
Seems to me like rushing defense should be a bigger focus for improvement.
Personally, if the offensive staff would take the handcuffs off Logan Thomas and let him treat each offense possessions like a 2 minute offense, where he has been far more effective, this game could be a shoot out in a hurry. I know, I know, it is not in the Hokies’ DNA to do that because it would tire out Hokies’ D, and in theory, it would also tire out the Tar Heels’ defense.
I guess I can only dream.
“Call me crazy, but I think the key to this game is points. I think that if VT goes out and scores more points than UNC, that they’ll find a way to win this ball game”. Wow! How prophetic, Hokie 24. Another Nostradamus we have, and I’m not calling you anything, you’ve all ready done that…..
I love when we play UNC….its always a win for us. UNC looks good on paper like everyone throwning out stats and UNC looks good here and there but facts are facts. We don’t lose to a bunch of losers like UNC. If the game was played on paper Ill fold you up a football and you can kick Fgs all day long. Uva could beat us on paper but guess what. WE WIN! 45-10….not even close!
Just pointing out how crazy people can sound when talking about football, Ancient Bobcat!
Andy, as a UVA fan I just wanted to tell you that you do a great job covering the Hokies and the fact that I read your posts everyday says how good you are doing your job. My 2 cents anyways.
31-24 Hokies
That I will definitely have to agree with Hokie 24, an every day thing here. It was just in your wording, I couldn’t resist!
The Hokies will show up and will win the game. Don’t give up on the Hokies.
@ Beamer best all time-Please change your name, you lose credibility with that moniker. Wasn’t it just three yrs. ago a late Ryan Williams fumble led to a last second field goal and victory for UNC. The UNC fan I took to the game still taunts me about it. I take nothing for granted this year. Really bummed about having to watch the rest of the season on espn3.
Who cares neither team is worth a damn, Va Tech is so over rated every year and finally Tech isn’t getting lucky and winning games like every year. Beamer is an old fart who doesn’t have it anymore his best win came in 95 against texas what a joke, and this love affair he has for newsome, o’cain, and stinespring is sickening the big money boosters and weaver have to do something NOW!
If I am not mistaken, the game is being broadcast on the local channel instead of via any of ESPN’s satellite.
“I love when we play UNC….its always a win for us. UNC looks good on paper like everyone throwning out stats and UNC looks good here and there but facts are facts. We don’t lose to a bunch of losers like UNC. If the game was played on paper Ill fold you up a football and you can kick Fgs all day long. Uva could beat us on paper but guess what. WE WIN! 45-10….not even close!”
Guess what? Stat do matter, but in your warped, Beamer worshiping world, it doesn’t matter squat because Beamer is never wrong. He is absolutely perfect and everybody who dare to question His Holiness is stupid.
Am I right?
If VT wants to win Logan is going to have to quit playing like a Division III QB and hit wide open receivers 5 yards away from him
there are five letters in the name frank. there are six letters in the name beamer. put the numbers side by side and you get 56. therefore the final score will be VT 20 and NC 14. hope that clears all this up for ya.
@ Trevor. I shoulda stated I’m in Little 10 country(Cincy). No ACC network.
This is the time of year things usually start clicking for us. The two losses are making us delusional. UNC’s win last week, while it was 66-0, was against an Idaho team that was beaten by Bowling Green, who we shut out a couple of weeks ago.
The offense looked good in the 2nd half last week and the defense wasn’t that bad other than a few very costly broken plays. Miami is 3-0 in conference play, so the Hokies have to know this is a must-win game for a chance at returning to Charlotte. UNC has a strong o-line and balanced offense, we have a defense that’s capable and an offense that will eventually put a full game together…and I think eventually means later today. This one is very winnable for either team, but I’m betting we show up and remind UNC that we are the kings of the Coastal until dethroned.
VT 31, UNC 20
For the first time in history I am going against my Hokies. UNC 42 Hokies 17.
Coxster, I don’t want to post any links that may earn the wrath of RT, so I’m just going to suggest to Goggle this exact phrase, “Free Sports Streaming.”
ESPN3 has been a major disappointment for me this year, and I have basically abandoned going there because of the ridiculous amount of blackout rules they enacted this year.
It is also how I have been able to watch different games online. There’s always a way.
The Hookies goes down! UNC