Did recruiting from 2008-10 have anything to do with Virginia Tech’s defensive struggles this year?
I got a question in the live chat last week about whether or not the defense’s struggles this year can be connected to a string of sub-par recruiting classes from 2008-10 that saw plenty of attrition.
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The questioner framed these years as the pre-Shane Beamer years, since the younger Beamer seems to have given a jolt of energy to the Hokies’ recruiting efforts. Remember, however, that Shane didn’t come on board until February of 2011, which is after the 2011 class was signed. So technically, 2012 and beyond is the post-Shane era, although it’s hard to credit/blame one coach for the recruiting efforts of the entire staff.
Anyway, before I had a chance to look into it, french60wasp at The Key Play took an in-depth look at the issue, concluding that the numbers of busts from 2008-10 created a talent gap that has finally caught up to the Hokies this year. Here’s his breakdown of those classes (I’ve made bold players who stayed in the program for at least four years for 2008-09, three years for 2010):
2010
- DT Nick Acree — 4 — Moved to offense
- DB Detrick Bonner — 3 — One-year starter
- DB Nick Dew — 4 — Left the program
- DB Kyle Fuller –3 — 2½-year starter
- LB Brian Laiti — 3 — Left the Program
- DT Derrick Hopkins — 3 — Two-year starter
- DE Zach McCray — 4 — Backup
- DE Justin Taylor — 3 — Scout Team
- LB Chase Williams — 3 — Backup
Average Rivals Score: 3.06
Number of starters: 3
Number who were in program 3 years: 6 (of those who stayed on offense)
Number of DBs who stuck: 2
2009
- LB Telvion Clark — 3 — Kicked off team
- LB Tariq Edwards — 3 — One-year starter
- DB Antone Exum — 3 — Two-year starter
- DE James Gayle — 3 — Two-year starter
- DB James Hopper — 2 — Injured, grad assistant
- DB Jayron Hosley — 4 — Two-year starter, NFL
- DB Theron Norman — 3 — Left the program
- DT DeAntre Rhodes — 3 — Never joined the program
- DT David Wang — 3 — Moved to offense
- DB Jerrod Williams — 4 — Transferred to Clemson
- DE Tyrel Wilson — 3 — Backup/contributor
- DE Duan Perez-Means — 3 — Moved to Offense
- DE JR Collins (Lanford) — NA — Two-year starter
Average Rivals Score: 3.06
Number of starters: 5
Number who were in program 4 years: 5 (of those who stayed on defense)
Number of DBs who stuck: 2
2008
- LB Lydell Gibson — 3 — Kicked out
- OLB Jeron Gouveia-Winslow — 3 — Marginal starter
- DE/DT Isaiah Hamlette — 3 — 3rd string/special teams
- DT Antoine Hopkins — 3 — Starter/2nd string
- LB Jake Johnson – 3 — Transferred
- DE Joe Jones — 2 — Left the program
- DE Leon Mackey — 3 — Never got to VT, now at Texas Tech
- LB Quillie Odom — 4 — Kicked out
- LB Allen Stephens — 3 — Left team
- LB Bruce Taylor — 4 — Multi-year starter
- DB Eddie Whitley — 3 — Multi-year starter
- DB Lorenzo Williams — 3 — Injured
Average Rivals Score: 3.08
Number of starters: 3
Number who were in program 4 years: 5
Number of DBs who stuck: 1
As french60wasp noted, the DB classes in those years are pretty thin, particularly at cornerback. That and the attrition in the defensive backfield probably has a lot to do with Tech’s current predicament, in which it essentially has two cornerbacks playing safety.
Now, I thought I’d go back further to see to if that’s out of the ordinary. Here are classes going as far back as Rivals’ database goes.
2007
- OLB Alonzo Tweedy — 2 — Backup, special teams standout
- DB Cris Hill — 4 — Marginal starter
- DE Justin Young — 3 — Transferred to Morgan State
- DT Kwamaine Battle — 3 — Marginal starter, injured
- DT Courtney Prince — 2 — Backup, transferred to Eastern Kentucky
- LB Hunter Ovens — 3 — Left team to pursue baseball career
- LB Barquell Rivers –3 — 1-year starter, injured
Average Rivals Score: 2.86
Number of starters: 1.5
Number who were in program 4 years: 5
Number of DBs who stuck 1
2006
- LB Zach Luckett — 3 — Backup, special teams player
- DB Rashad Carmichael — 2 — Two-year starter
- DB Mario Edwards — 3 — Transferred to Georgia Tech
- DB Devin Radford — 3 — Started on offense, transferred to Appalachian State
- DE Jason Adjepong (Worilds) — 4 — Two-year starter
- DE Nekos Brown — 3 — One-year starter
- DE Mike Gee — 3 — Never go to Tech
- DE John Graves — 4 — Three-year starter
- DT Ladi Ajiboye — 4 — Didn’t qualify, went to South Carolina
- DT Joey Hall — 2 — Kicked off team
- DT Daryl Robertson — 3 — Transferred to Liberty
- LB Matt Wright — 3 — Transferred to Delaware State
Average Rivals Score: 3.08
Number of starters: 4
Number who were in program 4 years: 5
Number of DBs who stuck: 1
2005
- CB Victor Harris — 5 — Three-year starter
- DB Cameron Martin — 3 — One-year starter
- ROV Dorian Porch — 3 — Two-year starter
- DB Stephan Virgil — 3 — Two-year starter
- DE Stephen Friday — 4 — One-year starter
- DE William Wall — 3 — Kicked off team
- DT Cordarrow Thompson — 2 — Two-year starter
- LB Deveon Simmons — 4 — Never got to Tech
- LB Sam Wheeler — 3 — Moved to tight end
Average Rivals Score: 3.33
Number of starters: 6
Number who were in program 4 years: 6
Number of DBs who stuck: 4
2004
- DB Brandon Flowers — 3 — Three-year starter
- DB Kent Hicks — 4 — Backup, transferred to Liberty
- DB Theodore Miller — 2 — Dismissed from team
- DB D.J. Parker — 2 — 2½-year starter
- DT Carl Howard — 3 — Transferred to Rutgers
- LB Andrew Bowman — 3 — Backup
- LB Michael Green — 2 — Moved to fullback, injured
- RB (LB) Purnell Sturdivant — 2 — One-year starter
Average Rivals Score: 2.63
Number of starters: 3
Number who were in program 4 years: 4
Number of DBs who stuck: 2
2003
- DB (OLB) Corey Gordon — 2 — Backup
- DB James Griffin — 4 — JC transfer, started one year
- DB Michael Hinton — 3 — Kicked off team
- DB Roland Minor — 2 — One-year starter
- DE Barry Booker — 3 — Two-year starter
- DE Chris Ellis — 4 — Three-year starter
- DT Carlton Powell — 3 — 2½-year starter
- DT Kory Robertson — 2 — Backup
- LB Xavier Adibi — 4 — Three-year starter
- LB Mike Brown — 3 — Don’t recall joining VT
- LB Vince Hall — 4 — Four-year starter
- LB Brett Warren — 3– One-year starter
Average Rivals Score: 3.08
Number of starters: 8
Number who were in program 4 years: 9
Number of DBs who stuck: 3
2002
- DB Demetrius Hodges — 2 — Transfer to East Carolina
- DB Brian McPherson — 2 — Left team
- DB Aaron Rouse — 3 — Two-year starter
- DB Antoine Rutherford — 2 — Dismissed from team
- DB Cary Wade — 3 — Backup, marginal starter
- DB Jimmy Williams — 3 — Three-year starter
- DE Noland Burchette — 2 — Two-year starter
- DE Darryl Tapp — 3 — Two-year starter
- DE Lamar Veney — 3 — Grayshirted, never enrolled
- DT Chris Burnett — 2 — Backup
- DT Jonathan Lewis — 4 — Three-year starter
- DT Jimmy Williams — 4 — JC transfer, backup
Average Rivals Score: 2.75
Number of starters: 5
Number who were in program 4 years: 7
Number of DBs who stuck: 3
There’s no doubt that those 2002-05 classes were the high point in terms of retention and production. The 2003 class alone produced eight starters, which is pretty rare in college football. I’ve broken down the categories after each year into this chart for a comparison:
- Year — Rivals avg. — Starters — Lasted 4 years* — DBs who stuck
- 2013 — 3.44
- 2012 — 3.20
- 2011 — 3.30 — 3**
- 2010 — 3.06 — 3 — 7 — 2
- 2009 — 3.06 — 5 — 5 — 2
- 2008 — 3.08 — 3 — 5 — 1
- 2007 — 2.86 — 1.5 — 5 — 1
- 2006 — 3.08 — 4 — 5 — 1
- 2005 — 3.33 — 6 — 6 — 4
- 2004 — 2.63 — 3 — 4 — 2
- 2003 — 3.08 — 8 — 9 — 3
- 2002 — 2.75 — 5 — 7 — 3
* Three years for 2010 class
** So far, two years into the class
Looking at that, there doesn’t seem to be much of a lag in terms of the quality of player Tech recruited from 2008-10. The average star ratings by Rivals were about in line with the Hokies earlier this century (with the exception of the 2005 class, which had the highest average since 2002 until potentially this year). So from that standpoint, nothing really changed. (And remember, these rankings don’t even account for guys like Cody Grimm and Jack Tyler, walk-0ns who established themselves as starters and big contributors.)
But as you can see from 2002-05, the Hokies did a much better job of retaining defensive backs. Here is Tech’s rank nationally in total defense by year. And you can assume each recruiting class doesn’t really have much of an impact until about three or four years after they get into school. You can see a noticeable drop in 2010, about the time those so-so defensive classes’06, ’07 and ’08 are starting to pan out.
- 2012 — 64th currently
- 2011 — 10th
- 2010 — 52nd
- 2009 — 12th
- 2008 — 7th
- 2007 — 4th
- 2006 — 1st
- 2005 — 1st
My conclusion? I don’t know if this recruiting lull from ’08-10 has as much to do with this year’s struggles as everyone thinks. I mean, the 2009 class produced Edwards, Exum, Gayle, Hosley, Wilson and Collins. That’s a formidable group.
I will concede that the attrition from those classes has been pretty severe, and that starts to eat at your depth, especially when a guy like Hosley goes pro early. Virginia Tech was able to handle those hits in the past when a Brandon Flowers or Jimmy Williams would leave for the NFL. Tech had depth to make up for it. The recent attrition at defensive back (1 of 2 DBs stuck in 2008, 2 of 5 stuck in 2009 and 2 of 3 have stuck from 2010) in classes not particularly flush with DB prospects has made it harder on this year’s group.
But to say it’s all on attrition and recruiting might be simplistic. Last year’s team fell into the same ’08-’10 time frame for prospects panning out and had similar depth issues (in fact, it was probably younger overall). It finished the season ranked 10th nationally in total defense. So there has to be other contributing factors.
What do future seasons hold? The Hokies should get a boost from the depth department. The 2011 class still has nine defensive players in the program, three of which (Kyshoen Jarrett, Ronny Vandyke, Luther Maddy) are starters and another four (Michael Cole, Dadi Nicolas, Corey Marshall, Kris Harley) with good potential.
The 2012 class begins to address the dearth of defensive backs, with five DBs in a class of 15 total defensive players (including the three grayshirts and prep school players).
The 2013 class, though not binding at this point, has nine defensive commitments, six of which have the potential to play defensive back, including highly-rated prospects Kendall Fuller and Holland Fisher. With an average star rating of 3.44 for those nine commitments, it’s also among the highest-ranked defensive classes the Hokies have had in the last decade.
Granted, all of that is on paper. Everyone will have to wait and see how it translates on the field.
October 10, 2012 - 1:20 PM
Lorenzo Williams was injured and able to play. I believe garaduated and is working in Phoenix and I believe works for the university there.
What’s the word on Holland Fisher? Has he flipped to Alabama?
Where does Wyatt Teller fall into all of this Andy? Where will he play when he comes to VT next year?
corrected to unable to play
I’ve updated the Williams line.
Holland Fisher visited Bama. I haven’t heard anything about him flipping.
Teller could play inside our outside on the d-lien depending on how big he gets.
In the past we have been blessed with walk-ons on both sides of the ball that have been as good and in cases better than any recruited player. I don’t see as much of this this year.
I think it shows what a crap-shoot recruiting can be at times. Some players hit their peak at 18 and some at 21-22 years old. I remember the hoopla when Nick Acree signed. He was supposed to be the next All-American and many said he would start as a freshman. That hasn’t worked out. Some on offense are the same. There was an offensive lineman a few years ago from Ohio (can’t remember his name, shame on me). Big kid and scored something like 1200 on SAT’s. Tech beat out Ohio State and several other Big 10 schools for him. Stayed in the program about 3 years and quit football. Not sure he ever play a down in college.
Don’t forget not listed here are Farrow and Aromire both expected contributors in secondary, both transferred …so the 2011 class attrition (redshirts) is really hurting too. Redshirts who’ve been in the program are more ready than true freshmen like we have on the two deep now
Seems our D coaching is down also. Cornell Brown has been the only change. Is that working out? He does not appear to be a recruiting dynamo either but I don’t follow the recruiting ‘that’ close.
justafan, his name was Aaron Brown, 6’6 285 4 star kid ouf of Cincinnati.
justafan @ 7, I think that was Aaron Brown. One of the top OL recruits in the country that we really stole. I think the most action he ever had was working at Hardees on South Main. Too bad for that young man and the team that he didn’t turn into the starter all hoped he would be. Good point Rich @ 8, 2 big losses in the secondary.
Smithfield Hokie that also could have been Tripp Carroll.
I’m just thinking out loud here.
I have to wonder if the reassignment of coach Jim Cavauangh have also impacted the quality of the defense. He was an outside linebacker coach, and from his bio via Hokiesports.com, it was one hell of a resume. He know his craft and I think the hiring of Cornell Brown hasn’t panned out yet.
I also think that Newsome should be the one in administrative position, away from the field, and coach Cavs restored to his old job. If it was up to me, I’ll make Stiney the OL coach (he does the tackle and tight ends coaching, if I’m not mistaken on top of being ‘offense coordinator’), and give Mike O’Cain full time offense coordinating job.
I’m just thinking out loud, that’s all.
No way do we keep these loser coaches, fisher will sign with Alabama.
The Hokie coaches just seem to be in a lull, apathetic; not taking responsibility. Somewhere a fire will have to be lit to get this team out of the abyss.
It is interesting that, based on the figures above, we really don’t even get that many 4-star recruits. I understand that we’re only looking at the defensive recruits, but still. We’re bound to get more 4-stars than that. Don’t we? I mean, I’m looking at the years above, and it’s always been more than obvious that we only get a 5-star recruit about once every 6-8 years. But the 4-stars? Only about a couple of 4-star guys on defense each year? Yikes!
Andy, I know this is greedy, but why not ask – Can you run the same numbers on the offensive recruits? I’ve heard the excuse in the past that ‘the best athletes are recruited for defense’, when the annual deficiencies of the offense are discussed. I know we’ve had some really good talent come through as RB’s, but overall, how have the offensive recruits looked? Are we only getting a couple of 4-star recruits annually on offense, too?
The sky is falling the sky is falling! C’mon Chicken Littles hang in there!
This defense is virtually the same one that played lights out last year except for Whitley and Hosley and I don’t think a one of you would say Hosley played like a future NFL player last year, Whitley either.
When your offense goes 3 and out for almost a full half and can’t run past the line of scrimmage you can’t blame the defense. Yeah Bonner and Exum are not in the class of prior VT DB’s, but I would put this front seven against most any VT have had when they’re healthy and the offense demonstrates any ability.
I think there will be some good surprises still to come.
Late to the party but I am curious how other programs stack up as far as retention.
We’ve got 9 starters back. Hello. Did they just forget everything they knew and lost all pride and desire. 9 starters, something is wrong under the surface.
It would appear the offense has had a negative effect on the defense this year, except the worst game the defense has had was against UNC, which was nearly the best the offense has played all year, against similar competition.
Actually, I have crunched the number, and the defense has been wildly inconsistent this year.
On the offense side of the ball, the passing attack is actually better than I expected, and the rushing attack literally took a nose dive. Part of it is due to the offense line inability to generate the push needed to make holes for the running back to rush through.
http://www.gobblercountry.com/2012/10/9/3480998/between-the-numbers-virginia-tech“>Charts are available here.
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I have to wonder if the problem is that there are no clear leaders among the players on defense.
Let’s not ignore, though, the offense is just as bad as the defense. Our rushing attack is nonexistent. No RB even managed TWENTY yards against UNC. NONE. At Virginia Tech? Talk about losing your identity…
Andy you addressed the D problems in paper today. Leadership comes from within from guys that have a long track record of success. As much as I like Taylor let’s be honest here. You are a young player and things not going as planned and someone speaks up hard to listen to a guy that you played half a season without and did very well. Last year you had guys like Drager, DeChristopher, Boykin, Coale etc. Hard to identify player this year with that type of resume. LT could fill that but not sure if he has that type of personality yet. Kyle Fuller maybe but seems to be quiet guy. Exum most equipped personality but because of position change results are in ?. Oh the shuffling of the DB’s. Can we say do over. Took an all conference safety and tried to make a corner out of and took two guys whose only experience was @ corner (btw both showed promise) and made into inexperienced safeties. Now we have 3 of 4 positions totally inexperienced. Could have had 2 positions manned by all conference caliber type players and ability to develop younger players at 1 corner and 1 safety. Those 2 things sum up what was supposed to be a deep experienced D into a cluster ####. O is making the progress you would expect from such a massive overhaul. The attrtion of the recruiting classes examined could be the explanation of the leadership issues.
Andy, couple of mistakes in your list.
From 2008:
Allen Stephens enrolled at Virginia Tech and redshirted before leaving. You’ll have to ask the coaches as to what happened. He wasn’t exactly kicked out, but there were some issues.
It’s Leon Mackey not Leon McKay. He signed with VT in high school and was supposed to prep and attend VT, but there were very strong rumors that he wondered why he wasn’t getting the same “benefits” from VT as his teammate at Hargrave Quinton Coples who was going to UNC. Of course we all know the scandal that is down there in Chapel Hill so I’m thinking there is something to those rumors. Andy, maybe a good story idea, see how much the Butch Davis era affected VT because in my opinion they took a lot of talent away from VT that the Hokies wanted.
In 2009:
Jerrodd Williams did indeed enroll at Virginia Tech and later transferred to Clemson.
Just wanted to let you know. Keep up the good work!
I’ll be honest, I took the 08-10 lists straight from The Key Play post, then went back further to supplement his research. I’ll make those changes.