Duke at Virginia Tech: Who has the edge?
Is this game the season for the Hokies? It’s only the seventh game, but a lot of folks are looking at it that way. Win and Tech avoids the embarrassment of losing to Duke at home and at least gets going in the right direction in the Coastal. Lose, and with Clemson, Miami and Florida State coming up on the schedule, getting to a bowl game would be a tough task. So yeah, it’s a fairly important game.
Here’s a look at the matchups. Feel free to offer your own thoughts on the game in the comments section below. Be sure to leave your predicted score and reasons for it.
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Duke at Virginia Tech
- Where: Lane Stadium, Blacksburg
- When: Saturday, 12:29 p.m.
- TV: ACC Network
- Records: Duke 5-1, 2-0 ACC; Virginia Tech 3-3, 1-1 ACC
- Series: Virginia Tech leads 12-7
- Last meeting: Hokies won 14-10 last year in Durham, N.C.
- Line: Virginia Tech by 10
When Virginia Tech passes
Logan Thomas and his receivers finally had a highly-productive game against North Carolina, mostly out of necessity, since the Hokies found themselves down early and the running game provided no help throughout. Thomas threw for a career-high 354 yards and two touchdowns. Corey Fuller (143 yards, TD) and Demitri Knowles (83 yards) had big games, showing the depth of Tech’s passing game. With those two, Marcus Davis and presumably Dyrell Roberts, who wasn’t on the injury list this week after suffering a concussion at UNC, that’s a lot of weapons for the Hokies to use. Even J.C. Coleman is getting in on the act as a pass-catcher, coming out of the backfield on a few screens the last couple weeks. The line has given up 10 sacks this year but only two in 79 pass attempts the last two games against a pair of pretty good defensive lines.
Duke will be another challenge from that standpoint. The Blue Devils have averaged 2.5 sacks a game, led by defensive end Kenny Anunike, who has 4.5. (Duke had only one sack in its toughest game against Stanford, however.) The Blue Devils have given up yards in the air (242.3 ypg, 76th nationally) but have been pretty good in terms of pass efficiency defense (115.28, 36th nationally). They have some talented guys on the back end of their 4-2-5 scheme, though. Safety Walt Canty has been named the ACC defensive back of the week two straight weeks and is the only starting safety not to miss a game this year with an injury. He has a team-high 53 tackles and 5.5 tackles for a loss, so he’s around the ball a lot. Cornerback Ross Cockrell leads the ACC with four interceptions. The team has seven, one shy of the ACC lead. Safety Jordan Byas missed three weeks with a knee injury but has 28 tackles since. Still, opponents can move the ball in the air on this group. Three teams have thrown for 275 yards or more against them this season. If Tech can avoid the interceptions, it could have success here.
Edge: Virginia Tech
When Virginia Tech runs
The Hokies’ ground game remains a mess. Virginia Tech finished with 40 rushing yards last week, its lowest total since the 2007 season opener. Making matters worse, Michael Holmes had a costly fumble that turned the tide in the middle of the third quarter in the UNC game. Tony Gregory should be back from a knee injury that’s kept him out the last two weeks, but he’s no cure-all. Holmes (255 yards, 4.3 avg., 4 TD) probably remains the strongest rushing threat, with Coleman, Gregory and Martin Scales getting the occasional look. Thomas (149 yards, 4 TD) is another threat the Hokies still haven’t really used to their fullest advantage this year. Again, all this is moot if the offensive line doesn’t open holes. There were no running lanes against UNC. Even David Wilson would have struggled to gain consistent yardage behind this group.
Duke has been OK against the run, allowing 129.8 yards per game (42nd nationally), but the Blue Devils didn’t do so hot their last time out, giving up 186 yards against Virginia. In fact, ACC teams (Wake, UVa) have averaged 5.04 yards per carry against them, although Virginia only had 2 yards in the second half last week (the flip side of that is that the Cavaliers gained 184 rushing yards in the first half). Part of the problem has been the absence of Kelby Brown, the team’s top linebacker who has yet to play this season because of a leg injury, just one of a ton of a injuries that have plagued the Blue Devils this season. Nose guard Jamal Bruce (foot) is questionable) but defensive end Justin Foxx (hand) is probable, so Duke might be getting some help up front.
Edge: Push.
When Duke passes
Sean Renfree was thought to be Duke’s best option on offense as a passer. Then Anthony Boone filled in last week and threw for 212 yards. Perhaps David Cutcliffe‘s quarterbacks are all capable? (Given his background with the Mannings, I’d gather that’s the case.) Renfree (1,282 yards, 9 TD, 5 INT) is probable this week with an elbow injury, so it’s probably safe to assume that both he and Boone (422 yards, 5 TD, 1 INT) will play. Both can throw it, so it doesn’t matter. Conner Vernon leads a productive receiving group. All he’s done is catch more passes (239) than anybody in ACC history. He’s fourth in league history with 3,230 receiving yards and needs 287 to pass Florida State’s Peter Warrick for the No. 1 spot. This year, Vernon has 41 catches for 555 yards and five touchdowns, so he’ll be a handful. Jamison Crowder (38 catches, 461 yards, 3 TD) and running back Desmond Scott (36 catches, 342 yards, TD) are Duke’s other big pass catchers. The line has allowed only four sacks all year, probably a combination of good pass protection and Duke getting the ball out quickly.
That’ll be a challenge for a Virginia Tech team has not gotten to the quarterback much this year. The Hokies have eight sacks in six games. That’s tied for 96th nationally with that oh-so formidable group at Ball State. The tackles have been a disappointment, particularly with Luther Maddy (ankle) hobbled. Defensive end James Gayle (2 sacks) and Tyrel Wilson (2 sacks) are the only players who have put much pressure on the quarterback. That hasn’t helped the secondary, which has had to cover guys longer than they’d like. Still, the group hasn’t been horrible against the pass. They’ve allowed 193.33 yards per game (27th nationally) and a QB efficiency rating of 111.03 (28th nationally). Granted, the schedule plays into that. Pittsburgh, Cincinnati and North Carolina combined for 869 passing yards and 7 touchdowns in the air.
Edge: Duke.
When Duke runs
The Blue Devils aren’t a great running team. They’ve averaged 126.0 yards per game on the ground, 95th nationally (that’s even four spots lower than the Hokies, surprisingly). Freshman Jela Duncan leads the team with 250 yards and two touchdowns, averaging 6.1 yards per carry. Juwan Thompson (194 yards, TD) and Josh Snead (156 yards, 2 TD) have also carried the ball. Boone, who had seven carries for 41 yards against UVa, is a threat to run, but so is backup quarterback Brandon Connette, a 225-pounder who has five touchdown runs this year. Duke just hasn’t been able to get consistent yardage on the ground. Consider this: Virginia Tech is averaging 3.9 yards per carry this year. Duke’s average is 3.8.
Of course, the Hokies haven’t stopped anyone on the ground since Georgia Tech. North Carolina gouged them for 339 rushing yards last week, getting 262 from Giovani Bernard, the most ever for a running back in a game against Virginia Tech. This wasn’t an isolated incident. Pittsburgh ran for 254 yards. Tech sold out to stop the run against Cincinnati and held the Bearcats to 103 yards, but that led to 392 passing yards. Missed tackles have been the Hokies’ biggest problem, and they’ve done extra work this week trying to correct that. Jack Tyler (60 tackles), Kyshoen Jarrett (42) and Bruce Taylor (34) have been active tacklers, but Tech needs help from everyone. The line, as coach Charley Wiles said, has to “pitch a fit,” the linebackers need to fit gaps better and the secondary has to tackle better. This might be the case of a resistible force going against movable object.
Edge: Push.
Special teams
Tech’s one lagging unit, kick return, finally broke out last week with a 93-yard return for a touchdown by Demitri Knowles . Of course, the Hokies also gave up a kick return for a touchdown for the first time in 237 games. That’s been the type of season it’s been. Tech is second in the ACC in punt returns, although it’s much more effective back there with Jarrett (22.0 avg.) in the game instead of Holmes (9.3 avg.). Kicker Cody Journell is now 7 of 8 on field goals this year. And punter A.J. Hughes, despite a mediocre effort at UNC, is still averaging 40.6 yards. One last thing: it’s odd that Brooks Abbott continues to do kickoffs. Opponents have an average starting position of the 33-yard line when he kicks off. When Michael Branthover does, the opponents’ average start is the 17-yard line.
Duke has been strong on punt returns. Lee Butler having a 17-yard average and has taken one back 65 yards for a score. Punter Will Monday has a 45.8-yard average. And Ross Martin is 7-for-8 on field goals this year, so there will be no repeat of Will Snyderwine last year, when he missed 3 of 4 field goals in a four-point loss to the Hokies. The kick return unit has been sub-par (105th nationally) and Duke is near the bottom of the country in covering both punts (109th nationally) and kicks (90th nationally), so Tech could take advantage.
Edge: Virginia Tech.
Coaching
Cutcliffe said earlier this week that he thinks Frank Beamer is the top coach in the country, so there’s obviously respect there. But Cutcliffe is no slouch himself, despite his 64-63 overall record. He went 44-29 at Ole Miss, which doesn’t sound great until you see his predecessor, Tommy Tuberville, went 25-20, and his successor, Ed Orgeron, went 10-25. At Duke, Cutcliffe is 20-34. Again, that doesn’t sound great until you see that in the 12 years before his arrival, the Blue Devils were 19-117. He has them one win away from bowl eligibility for the first time since 1994. So that’s an accomplishment. Beamer still has the experience edge here, and, although Duke games have been close of late, he still hasn’t lost to the Blue Devils in eight tries.
Edge: Virginia Tech
Prediction
Virginia Tech is not playing at a high level this year, and quite honestly, may not be capable of doing so. That said, I do feel like Duke’s 5-1 start is still a bit of a mirage. The four FBS-level teams the Blue Devils have beaten (Florida International, Memphis, Wake Forest and Virginia) are a combined 7-16. FIU and Memphis are among the worst teams in the FBS this year. Wake and UVa are among the worst in the ACC. So that 5-1 record is somewhat misleading. But I do think Duke is much improved and a much more formidable opponent than it has been in the past. And Hokies fans know the Blue Devils are capable of playing them close (14-10 last year, 34-26 in 2009). I think Duke will be able to score points against a Virginia Tech defense that has some major flaws. But I also think the opportunity is there for Thomas and the Hokies’ offense to do some things, particularly in the air. Thomas has looked sharp his last six quarters. That might be him breaking out of that early season slump. I think he’ll do enough for Tech to win a close game and, at least for a week, right the ship.
Prediction: Virginia Tech 30, Duke 27.
October 12, 2012 - 10:45 AM
I honestly think Duke is highly overachieving, and of course VT is underachieving. I think this won’t be close, as VT takes down Duke by a score of 31-14.
I wrote on the other blog that we are going to wake up some game and wake up angry and someone will pay. Why not Duke?
If its only a 3 point game – well – the sun may not rise again. If we lose…. there won’t be enough Prozac in the world.
Things are getting critical. Not matter what people say this is a MUST win if the ship really is to be righted. Im afraid it will be a shootout, especially if we can’t generate a pass rush. Hokies 35-28.
Last season was a Duke game let slip out of their hands. They didn’t have a comptent kicker who could have nailed four FG tries (didn’t he go 1-4?) and left 9 potential points off the boards. It was a game that was so disturbing there was many funny tweets about it. One tweet I recall vividly, “This game has taken away one lives out of my 9 lives,” or something to that effect. Virginia Tech was disturbingly bad in that game. VT had a veteran offensive line and two of the all-time best Hokies recieves tandem along with a home run threat in David Wilson. And Tech could only score 14 against Duke.
14!
This season – the defense has been wildly inconsistent, the running game has been a joke, and Thomas is probably going to have to carry the team on his 6’6″ frame to have a good game tomorrow.
Virginia Tech could win tomorrow. They could very well lose to Duke in front of a large pro-Hokies crowd who would be booing lustily.
It’s one of those coin toss games. Head – they win, tail – they lose.
Duke: #4 on defense and #2 on offense are beasts.
Duke: Due for a win against VT (deserved to win last year).
Edge: Dook
The Q of the day is will the desperation VT faces right the listing ship, or will it speed up the sinking?
Duke wins, 31-28.
Did we change OC this week? I didn’t think so. I pick Duke by 14 or more.
Jackson Furr??? From 2nd floor Thomas Hall?
A-Rod struck out again with runners on second and third, a hit would have won the game.
Is he the most overpaid athlete ever?
Is he washed up and finished ?
Duke is going to win. David Cutcliff is finally getting his recruits in place and turning the Duke football program from a complete laughing stock (much like UVA has been as of late), to a real contender.
This is the game that Tech finally fires on all cylinders. They are due for HUGE win considering the embarrassment that they have faced this year. each game the offense gets better, despite a horrible run game, the Special teams are getting better and better, and the defense needs to step it up. Tomorrow I see VT winning by 3TDs or more. 38-17 Hokies finally get a quality win
I hope Tech wins but for the life of me I can not understand 2 things:
1. Why do the DB’s line up 15-25 yards off the wide receivers on a 3rd and 8? I sat there with a buddy and called the play. It was a simple out route and there was no way the DB could make the play. I mean what are they teaching these kids? I watched the other college games later that day and the DB’S were on the receiver. I just had to make sure I was not thinking that Bud and Torian couldn’t see this. What is Bud doing?
2. Stinespring, the offense did look a little better because Logan stopped overthrowing all the wide open receivers although he still missed some which is okay because you will miss a throw or two. When are these guys going to try and recruit Peyton Manning Jr.? Logan is not a bad QB but maybe he is believing his own hype.
Please let me know, but Foster, in my opinion, has done a flat sorry job this year and Stinespring will always be Stinespring. Put him (Stinespring) back on the field again and not in the press box with O’Cain because at least that worked somewhat last year.
Another game, another opponent that is not ranked. Turn the ship around against sub-par teams, yes this is vt. Could not do it against any proven team year round and think: This could make or break vt this year. Gosh almighty, what’s next?? The only item I agree with is DUKE did beat tech except the score board last year. Is this game on tv or the radio?
No defensive push from the line, ineffective pressure when blitzing, no turnovers from the secondary.
The offesive can’t run the ball. The pass schemes are terrible. Thomas is too inconsistent passing.
Add these together and thing do not look good for Tech.
You make the point about Duke playing VT close as of late. I’ve been at both games in ’10 and ’11 and the Hokies were sleepwalking both times. You could see it on the bench. Last year I thought a picnic was going to break out on sideline.
This year the Hokies have eyes wide open and up against the wall. They hit this out of the park. 38-10.
Coaching Edge: Virginia Tech ?? LOL ! ! Where’d that come from ? Based on what Win-Loss record ?
Oh, if Cutcliffe said Beamer is a “top coach” then advantage Tech because Beamer is smart enough to know he is not a top Coach. Lord help us ! !
never thought i would see a day where duke could win against the hokies?
maybe a loss tomorrow would be a good thing in the long run?
just glad i dont have to hear it from the uva france gang, I hope?
think VT special teams will come to life a little bit more in this game. That is the edge that will be the biggest factor for the Hokies. VT 23 – Duke 17.
Eagle is right.
Sad…..sad…..sad!I graduated in ’67 and have supported Hokies for many years! Now I am beginning to wonder if Coach Beamer is beginning to take the same slide as Coach Bowden@ FSU. The fire doesn’t appear to be with him on sideline any longer….sometimes he appears to be in a daze!
As a Golden Hokie for over 20 years (also 4 sesonon tickets-FB& BB)I now am beginning to see “very little bang for my buck”!
Something needs to make VT Football exciting again…….blame some of this on our WEAK early season scheduling…where are the Mountaineers when we need them? Then scheduling was exciting and you did not mind paying to watch ! Now with Austin Peays and Bowling Greens the excitement has disappeared!
If Tech can’t win a homecoming game, then we DO have problems that need to be addressed. We’ve been waiting five games for the Hokies to show they want to play football on either side of the field. This is the last of the next four games they should have a shot at winning, so if the coaches and players ever cared about this season, there’s not much time left to prove it.
Give the Hokies a bunch of energy drinks. Maybe this is the game they will play with a lot of enthusiasm and it might be catching for the fans. “Lets go – Hokies, now is the time to put it all together and salvage some of the rest of the season.
I think the downward slide started when we banned the “stick it in” cheer. Let’s bring that back and fire up the team! I also agree with John about getting Stiney out of the booth. Sad to say, but I had to go on YouTube to see some highlights of when teams feared VTs defense. Time to get back to that blue collar work ethic and play every game with a chip on your shoulder because now you do have something to prove.
Scary game in a scary season. I was at the duke game last year. I was telling the pissed off fans the they should have won the game. It was bad. I would like to see tech come out and dominate sat. But every teams knows they have chance. Duke is due a win. This is the season. Loose tomorrow, and we may not have a bowl game. The short coach
Agree with John Davis. Also, Beamer is historically and in the grand schem a great coach but FOR THIS GAME Andy you give Tech the coaching edge? Not me, I would take Cutcliffe any day with game decisions and prep. Duke 38 Tech 28
O.K., VT makes a lot of field goals. Let’s say 2. Duke won’t have to settle for a FG, so 3 TD. VT has the long ball. Maybe 3, so, doing the math: VT 27, Duke 21 . I would say that is very close. What do we win if we get it right??
I want a years supply of Dan Casey B.S. :>) For the garden.
I smell another Hokie “Chokie” Choke job ordered up against Duke. For me it has been a great week hearing very little about these Chokies!! I hope it continues and when you chokies keep on losing the excuses keep on coming maybe just maybe a pink slip would show up!!! Hokie “Chokie” Nation: I hope your prepared for the beatdowns on the way and don’t make the excuse we are injured or must play better you over rated sorry excuse of a football team. Duke wins by 14+ and if the question ever comes up of when it is time to panic? Or should someone panic? Its that sorry excuse of a football coaching staff to start panicing or like it was said once: “The master of panic” = Hokie “Chokie” Nation Choke on it!!!!
Just like last year [we should of lost], it will be a close game but the chokies will win a close one only cause it’s at home. This team sucks the coaches suck and big game Beamer will do nothing about it like always. We have reached UVA’s level now and that isn’t good, I just hope we keep losing so the money boosters will have to force change.
Is it just me or are all of these sentiments uttered by Hokie fans reminiscent of those made by faithful Wahoos 13 years ago when they were ready to run George Welsh out of town? Hoos still haven’t recovered. Be careful what you wish for, Hokies. Very careful!
Yep 2nd Floor Thomas Hall 1973-1977
I don’t understand the anxiety over Tech not making a bowl game this year. What’s the point? We are not a good team at this juncture of the season. Unless we drastically improve over our last 6 games, we don’t need to suffer through another bowl loss just for the sake of going to a bowl. These bowl game strings are meaningless and because of the problems we’re having this year, worrying about going to a low level bowl will only further distract from the business at hand.
Let’s take this season for what it is-a watershed year for a program that knows changes need to be made. Let’s try and find the fortitude to concentrate on fixing the things that need fixing-which at this point in time include the offense, defense, special teams and coaching staff. I know, that’s an ambitious undertaking but we can’t avoid it any longer.
We’ve come too far to allow the program To regress any further.
We dreamed that the Hokies would catch up with Duke in basketball one day, didn’t happen. Now Duke will surpass the Hokes in football, it will happen.
This is an average team at the best, and the team is probably not that.
The program is stale, boring, and often over rated, very often over rated.
Duke is 19 -117 in the last 12 years. That is amazing, it really is amazing.
Duke by 14
To 27 slick dick, were would we be without your helpful insights? I for one of many would like to find out. You have a right to your opinion. Does it have to be totally without any class or substance. I know your are hurting, just let the anger go. Go find a real team and root for them. You remind me of people who say, ” I hate the Redskins”. I say “who is your team”? The answer is always the same. “I don’t have a team I just hate the Redskins”. I hope you find some joy and peace in your life, all this anger is not healthy. Mean while hokie nation will be just fine! We are used to winning, because we are winners!
LET’S GO HOKIES ! The short coach