Virginia Tech or Florida State: Who has the edge?
Time for another full, long day of waiting until tonight’s kickoff between Virginia Tech and Florida State. I’ve got you covered. I pushed the matchups post back to today to give everyone something to read leading up to the game.
Also, here’s today’s game advance, here’s Aaron McFarling‘s column, here’s yesterday’s Hokies podcast with me and Aaron and here’s the (basic) uniform Tech will be wearing tonight.
There were no players listed on the injury report, the weather is going to be cold tonight (40 degrees close to kickoff) and the betting line looks like it’s about FSU by 13.5 this morning.
Now for a look at the matchups …
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No. 8/6 Florida State at Virginia Tech
- Where: Lane Stadium, Blacksburg
- When: Thursday, 7:31 p.m.
- TV: ESPN
- Records: Florida State 8-1, 5-1 ACC; Virginia Tech 4-5, 2-3 ACC
- Series: Florida State leads 22-12-1
- Last meeting: Hokies won 44-33 in 2010 ACC title game in Charlotte
- Line: Florida State by 13.5
When Virginia Tech passes
Logan Thomas continues to be just a tick off. He threw for 199 yards against Miami last week but completed only 19 of 37 passes. Worse yet, he had some misses in key situations. A pick at the Miami 11 was a bad read. An overthrow on a fourth-down pass that was wide open crushed the Hokies’ hopes late. Tech still has weapons here, but they show up inconsistently. Marcus Davis was quiet for most of the Miami game, catching three passes for 43 yards. He needs to come up big tonight for Tech to have a chance. Tight end Ryan Malleck had four catches for 58 yards last week, one of his best games. The line needs to be on its game. Thomas has been sacked 16 times this year and took some shots last week.
FSU has probably the best defensive line the Hokies will face this year. Ends Cornellius “Tank” Carradine and Bjoern Werner are tied for the ACC lead with eight sacks apiece. The starting tackles, Anthony McCloud and Everett Dawkins, are NFL prospects, and backup Timmy Jernigan, a sophomore, isn’t too far behind. The secondary is just as strong. The ‘Noles are allowing only 154.2 yards per game in the air, tops in the ACC and the third-fewest in the country. Cornerback Xavier Rhodes is a three-year starter who leads the team with two picks. Safety Terrence Brooks is fourth on the team with 34 tackles. Clemson threw for four touchdowns against FSU. Every other team the ‘Noles have played have combined for four this year.
Edge: Florida State
When Virginia Tech runs
The paring down of the running game didn’t quite go to plan last week. Tony Gregory (10 carries, 52 yards), Michael Holmes (8 carries, 25 yards) and J.C. Coleman (5 carries, 23 yards) got about even work. Surprisingly, Coleman didn’t even get a carry until the second quarter. And Holmes was on the field far more than anyone expected. It’s unknown exactly how the split will go this week, although it’s not far-fetched to expect this three-man split to continue. You can’t forget Thomas here. He carried the load at Miami, carrying it a career-high 22 times for 124 yards. He scored on a 73-yard touchdown run up the middle, untouched. But he also ran for some tough yards on read plays. That was against a bad Miami defense, though. Those holes might not be there against FSU.
Another category, another area where the Seminoles dominate. FSU is allowing 72.9 yards per game on the ground. Only Stanford and Alabama are allowing less. That defensive line has a big part to do with that again. So do the linebackers. Christian Jones leads the team with 60 tackles. Backup Telvin Smith is third with 37. Those two have combined for 13 tackles for a loss. The ‘Noles have held six teams to less than 100 yards rushing this year. Two and a half weeks ago, Miami only had 29 rushing yards on 21 carries against this group. FSU has allowed only five rushing touchdowns all season, only three of which have come in their six ACC games. Opponents only have a 2.4-yard-per-carry average against the ‘Noles.
Edge: Florida State
When Florida State passes
It starts with quarterback EJ Manuel, a 6-foot-5, 240-pound senior who doesn’t have the flashy stats like Clemson’s Tajh Boyd but is every bit, if not more, efficient. Manuel has completed 70 percent of his passes for 2,315 yards this year, with 16 touchdowns to four interceptions. Like usual, FSU has a stable of wide receivers who can be a factor in the receiving game, with five active players with at least 18 catches. Rashad Greene (28 catches, 374 yards, 2 TD) and Rodney Smith (26 catches, 435 yards, 3 TD) start, but Kelvin Benjamin (23 catches, 443 yards, 4 TD) is just as productive. FSU can crank up the passing when it needs to. It threw for 380 yards and two touchdowns against Clemson and 448 yards and four touchdowns against Boston College.
The Hokies’ secondary will have its work cut out for it. Tech is still only allowing 201.9 passing yards per game(30th nationally, 3rd ACC). Even their pass efficiency defense is pretty good (114.7, 25th nationally, 2nd ACC). Last week, the Hokies held Miami to 1-for-12 on third down conversions, a stat you normally see in a victory. Still, there were a couple of breakdowns that led to big plays, a season-long problem. Pressure will be big. Manuel was sacked four times in FSU’s long loss this year to N.C. State. The Hokies had been doing a good job of getting to the quarterback until last week, with 10 sacks against Duke and Clemson. Although they pressured Miami’s Stephen Morris, they didn’t sack him. James Gayle will need a big game. Tech also needs some production from the other end spot, where Corey Marshall and Tyrel Wilson are the co-starters now that J.R. Collins has been demoted and moved inside to tackle.
Edge: Florida State
When Florida State runs
This is starting to sound like a broken record, but FSU is strong here too. The ‘Noles are second in the ACC to Georgia Tech with 234.6 rushing yards per game, a number that ranks 14th nationally. Chris Thompson, who had 687 yards and was on pace to top 1,000, was lost for the year with a knee injury at Miami. James Wilder Jr. (439 yards, 8 TD) and Devonta Freeman(391 yards, 5 TD) have filled in well in his absence. Against Duke they ran for 174 yards and three touchdowns. The key is the line, though. Hokies coaches call it one of the biggest, most athletic ones they’ve seen in a while. No starter is smaller than 6-foot-4 or 312 pounds, so it’s a big group Tech will be going up against.
Virginia Tech still can’t seem to get its rushing defense together. The Hokies are allowing 166.0 yards per game (70th nationally, 8th ACC). Even Miami, which despite having two great backs had struggled moving the ball consistently on the ground, ran for 157 yards last week. The Hokies have allowed 12 rushing touchdowns already this season. They allowed 15 all of last year. The defensive line will have to work to get off blocks, but Tech needs an active game from its linebackers. Jack Tyler (85 tackles) and Bruce Taylor (51) have had decent years. Alonzo Tweedy will move up to start at whip linebacker. The 6-foot-2, 193-pound senior isn’t big, but he’s quick. And he’s a sure tackler, as his special teams exploits have shown.
Edge: Florida State
Special teams
Remember how I’ve always been giving Tech the edge here because its stats in the separate categories look pretty good? No more. The Hokies have too many disastrous errors on special teams to seriously consider giving them the advantage here. Last week, it was a punt they had blocked and a long kickoff return, both of which set up touchdowns. Those are plays they can ill afford against Florida State. Other than that, the stats, as I’ve mentioned, still are pretty strong. Kyshoen Jarrett (16.0 punt return average, 4th nationally) and Demitri Knowles (30.1 kick return average, 10th nationally) continue to do well. Kicker Cody Journell missed an extra point and a 47-yard field goal last week but is still 12-for-14. Punter A.J. Hughes needs to shake off his second mishandled snap that turned into a disaster.
For as good as Tech has been on punt returns, FSU has been even better. Greene thrived on punt returns all year, with a 15.8-yard average and two touchdowns. But he had some trouble catching the ball, so the ‘Noles went with Tyler Hunter. He proceeded to return one 75 yards for a touchdown against Duke last week. FSU is sixth nationally on kick returns and fourth at defending them. Kicker Dustin Hopkins leads the ACC in scoring this season (11.3 ppg) and is the league’s all-time leading scorer. The only black mark is the punt unit. Freshman Cason Betty is averaging 38.2 yards per punt, although he hasn’t had a whole lot of opportunities.
Edge: Florida State
Coaching
FSU’s Jimbo Fisher has always been a strong recruiter whose game management skills seem to always come into question. The Virginia game last year was a pretty good example of that. The N.C. State loss this season provided more fodder. But he’s doing something right in Tallahassee to have this team at 8-1 overall and, at least at the beginning of the year, in the conversation for the national championship. Seminoles defensive coordinator Mark Stoops might be a hot commodity after this season. While Frank Beamer‘s career credentials are obviously impressive, but he hasn’t had to deal with a sub-.500 team this late in the year in a long, long time. It’s a foreign situation, one that you wonder if he’s equipped to handle after such sustained success. Beamer is 4-9 against top-10 teams since joining the ACC but only 1-6 in his last seven tries.
Edge: Florida State.
Prediction
This is the first time on one of these that every edge has gone to the opponent. But taken part by part, I simply think Florid State is a better team in every category. Now, that’s not to say the ‘Noles are invincible. Their schedule, with the exception of Clemson, isn’t full of world beaters. They obviously lost to a pretty mediocre N.C. State team on the road. In fact, they haven’t been sharp on the road at all, scuffling through a 30-17 win at South Florida and a 33-20 win at Miami. There’s also the cold factor. It’s going to be close to 40 degrees at kickoff. Beamer’s teams are 11-2 when the temperature is less than 40 degrees at kickoff. And Florida State obviously is from a warm state, so that could be an issue.
But I just don’t think an upset is likely. The last time Tech was a two-touchdown underdog at home was against No. 1 Miami in 2001. The Hokies lost that game 26-24, watching it slip through their fingers on a two-point conversion drop by Ernest Wilford in the fourth quarter. But that Tech team was ranked No. 14. This year’s group hasn’t shown any of those signs of breaking out. To beat FSU, the Hokies would need a crisp offensive performance, a strong defensive showing and a flawless special teams night that provides a big play or two. So far this year, the offense hasn’t been able to finish off drives, the defense has had breakdowns at inopportune times and the special teams has had more gaffes than big plays. Could it all come together in a big game? Sure. But nothing Virginia Tech has shown this season, especially lately, suggests that will be the case.
Prediction: Florida State 30, Virginia Tech 13
November 8, 2012 - 10:28 AM
Prediction: FSU: 56 VT: 14
Things helping to lead to an upset
1. Underdog doesn’t make mistakes
2. Favorite makes mistakes, either unforced errors or an aggressive D-line getting in the QB’s face (a la 2002 NE Patriots banging up St. Louis Rams’ QB Kurt Warner in that classic Super Bowl upset) and causing mistakes
3. Not just #2, but the underdog makes the favorite PAY for those mistakes
4. If the favorite does move the ball down the field, limit the favorite to field goals instead of touchdowns
5. Pontiac game-changing special teams play from the underdog (and not the favorite!)
On these five counts for VT
1. FAIL. LT has made errant throws and is among the leaders in the country with INT. He’ll need a miraculous turnaround. VT Defense still has too many missed assignments and blown coverages leading to big plays from the opposing offense.
2. FAIL. EJ Manuel is obviously much more experienced and smarter with the football than he’s ever been, so can’t really rely on him shooting himself in the foot. The defensive line for VT has really been erratic this year in its ability to pressure the opposing QB esp on the inside and this time they’re going up against the best OLine they’ve played all year.
3. FAIL. As Andy Bitter has pointed out numerous times, this is not the same Bud Foster defense that can score defensive touchdowns and if Bud’s D forces a turnover deep in FSU territory, where is the evidence that VT’s offense will capitalize? VT’s offense has been completely inept in the red zone this year. Heck, even in the Sugar Bowl vs. Michigan, ineptitude in the red zone KILLED Tech.
4. FAIL. As we’ve all seen, Bud’s D has been dealt some bad field positions in multiple games which isn’t its fault, but as Bud acknowledges, they simply aren’t good enough at tightening up in those situations. The fight from Bud’s D simply isn’t there for short field situations as it was in the past as when VT held an undefeated Auburn offense headlined by Cadillac Williams/ Ronnie Brown / Jason Campbell to 9 points in the first half of the Sugar Bowl (2004 season).
5. FAIL. Knowles and Jarrett are both very promising returners, but as Andy Bitter is absolutely correct to point out, FSU has some good returners of its own and VT has been terrible in kickoff coverage. What’s the point of scoring a TD on a kick return when you give it right back?
In other words, VT will need to be a team that it hasn’t been all year in order to pull off the upset.
On a side note, I look to see how Tweedy does. In 2005, VT moved a tight end named Duane Brown to offensive tackle to deal with NC State defensive end Mario Williams in a tough season opener in Raleigh. The reason was clear: originally a tight end, Brown was underweight for offensive tackle, but clearly he had the speedy feet needed to deal with a monster freak like Williams. The result? I don’t think Williams had a single sack that game as VT won 20-16. Also, Duane Brown ended up being drafted in the FIRST ROUND of the 2006 NFL draft. We’ll see if this size for speed tradeoff works on the other side of the ball for Tweedy.
Since joining the ACC, Beamer is 2-8 against teams who finished in the Top 10.
4-9 against teams in the top 10 at the time of the ranking.
Chis and Andy, how does that stat compare to other coaches?
Aside from looking at the football game statistics, the fan base for VT is probably one of the more important things to be noted about this game. The football team would lose a lot of their drive during the game if it wasn’t for the fans. To prevent the crowd from losing their pump halfway through the game, then the people controlling the music should play pump up music throughout the game. This can be an issue sometimes for the VT football games for me at least. Once “Enter Sandman” has been played, then you don’t hear anymore music until maybe halftime. This can create a boring mood. Whoever controls the music for VT should take notes from some of the other bigger teams games where the music keeps the crowd psyched for the ENTIRE game (especially at the end). This being said leads me to my prediction shown below:
Even though the odds are not good. I feel an upset or at least a closer game than expected tonight. Lane Stadium is extremely tough to play in on a Thursday night which gives some of the starting momentum to VT. Holding onto that momentum the whole game will be the challenge.
VT 27 FSU 24
Beamer has been a head coach for 32 years. He’s been an ACC head coach for only a quarter of that time.
I think Tech has all the intangibles on its side in this one. Unfortunately, we lack the talent on defense that would in most years give us a chance to overcome this trainwreck of an offense. The front line is fantastic, but our linebackers are slow, our safeties are inexperienced, and our cornerbacks are simply unskilled.
MR GRID…PROBLEM IS TONIGHT LANE STADIUM MAY BE EMPTY MIDWAY THROUGH THE GAME
Hope LT runs 22 times tonight like he did last week…
Checker,
Andy chose to bring up Beamer’s record against “Top 10″ teams during a small portion of Beamer’s career. He thought it was important to write about it. Maybe he should answer your question.
You can throw away the 11-2 at 40 degrees or less under Beamer stat along the with “virtually invincible on the road in the ACC” stat. None of that seems to apply for this year.
Here is the real stat that no one talks about (and I don’t have the numbers but I am sure I am right), Beamer is below .500 when trailing at halftime, and WAY below .500 when going into the 4th quarter. Sure, we all remember miraculous wins over Nebraska, UVA, and GT when trailing in the 4th, but the facts are that Beamer’s teams are poor when they go into the 4th trailing.
If FSU does what I think they will do, they will trade FSU TD’s for VT field goals and it will be 21-6 and VT will quit. We cannot forget that Bud Foster’s defenses always seem to need that 1-2 possessions to make the adjustments to stop an opponent. Because of that, Miami got 2 cheap scores before VT knew what hit them, and with VT’s offense, it was over when it got 14-3.
FSU will stop the run (not that hard to do) and make Logan beat them with the pass. If HE runs, they will make him pay dearly for doing so. Cold night means the receivers will have excuses to drop the ball and windy night means an already erratic LT will struggle more.
Final: FSU 31, VT 6. And FB, in the interview afterwards will say that this is still a “good” team and there was a lack of execution and a few plays either way that changed the game.
I’m done!
Tech just doesn’t have the talent to compete with FSU, they have the heart and determination but not the skilled players. FSU will crush them.
FSU 35 VT 10 – Prove me wrong!
GO HOKIES!!
41-13 FSU and could be worse. ….
16-14, Tech pulls the upset.
There are a lot of things that VT needs to do to win. One is for them to feature – key word – FEATURE one RB that goes for more than 100 yds rushing, and has at least 50% more carries than Logan Thomas. Another is for Thomas to not have any turnovers. A third, and probably the most impossible – is for Marcus Davis & Roberts to play 100% for the entire game. Not just in catching passes, but in every one of their responsibilities. The offensive line needs to move people off the line on rushing attempts, and not become turnstiles on passing attempts. The defense? They need to eliminate the big play. Special teams play needs to be Beamerball from 1998, not 2012.
I stopped predicting scores early in the season, but I’ll throw out one just to walk the razor’s edge. F$U 45-10 over the Hokies.
CR, I don’t think Roberts has been the same since his injury, he tends to flinch at contact and Davis is just not strong enough as a receiver. In the WVU game last week I saw the WVU WR actually rip the ball out of the DB’s hands for a TD. I’d put them as back-ups and start the other WR’s. Let them know it’s not an entitlement.
Bingo Bob H – “We are only 4 or 5 plays away” – SOS, same tired excuse – No Frank we are only 4 or 5 top line coaches away….
Andy, way too close of a prediction. With LT turning the ball over at least twice a game there is no way FSU only scores 30. I may even give them a score on each side of the ball (O, D and ST).
I honestly don’t see this going well. VT knows FSU is better this year and is likely going to win. That alone in their heads may help them play for maybe a quarter but as soon as FSU goes up by 14, pack it in. I give it one quarter of decent play then FSU blows it open.
FSU 38 VT 10
Tom L, I nominate you coach!
As long as the 3 stoges are still on the staff we have no chance!!!!!!!!!! FSU 24 VT 10
This is the start of a 3 week winning streak. Kinda wierd seeing Tech as an underdog at home on a thurs night. The stadium will be rocking the fireworks are going to be blasting and Tech wins in comeback fashion. You leave this one and you will miss the best ACC game this year. Tech comes from down 14 to win 31-21.
Tom L, there is a difference between playing (permanently) hurt and in not giving full effort. I’ll say this, DR gets only a slap on the wrist, meanwhile Marcus Davis is a reincarnation of Randy Moss at his laziest. Workout warrior, looks good in the weight room, no shirt on, but when it comes time to give 100%, he is absent. Shame he couldn’t take a lesson from Danny Coale or Cody Grimm or several other Hokies who don’t have the physical tools to make NFL scouts drool, but who have exponentially more heart.
Chris,
I just noticed that it was in the article, thanks.
What is this football game everyone is talking about tailgating at tonight??? I didnt know high school games were on Thursday nights…..and I dang sure didnt know they tailgated at them…..Oh well…..At least I have something to watch on tv to get me in the Thanksgiving mood…..The slaughtering and carving of a Turkey by a Seminole….
FSU needs this game therefore they are going to be a beast.
Upset ! LOL ! Fl State = 99 / Beamer = ZERO
Shell shocked soldiers don’t win battles. That’s what the Tech players are – SHELL SHOCKED . They have lost all faith in their generals / coaches. That’s when wars are over. Demoralized troops. They won’t risk their lives on a lost cause. Fire the officers – NOT THE TROOPS ! I will walk from Lane to the President’s House after the game in PROTEST . It’s the least I can do for the soldiers that gave their all.
Maybe VT can do a USC and take the air out of the game balls so that Logan Thomas can hold onto the ball more and not throw more picks!
FSU 48
VT 17
No question as to what will happen tonight. With the Hokie players looking for a leader, and word is no one wants to step up and take that leadership role. Well my choice for the win will have to go to FSU. This will not be pretty at all..
They should play Mr. Sandman tonight and not Enter the Sandman ….
Florida state 80 Hokies 3. I thought I would try an insane score so that the Hokies will win and prove me wrong.
Still love my Hokies. Even if this a character building year.