ESPN’s Mel Kiper Jr. says despite down year, QB Logan Thomas still in NFL draft’s ‘first-round discussion’
Logan Thomas‘ draft stock might not be where it was following last season, but ESPN analyst Mel Kiper Jr. said on a Wednesday teleconference that Virginia Tech’s junior quarterback still has the potential to be a first-round pick in next spring’s NFL draft if he goes pro.
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Kiper, who listed Thomas as one of his top five players in the 2013 draft class before the season, acknowledged that the quarterback has fallen out of that discussion because of his erratic play this season.
But he maintains that Thomas has the physical skills that NFL teams will be looking for in a quarterback and his stock hasn’t fallen too dramatically, especially since his competition at the position — USC’s Matt Barkley, Oklahoma’s Landry Jones, Arkansas’ Tyler Wilson, West Virginia’s Geno Smith among others – haven’t had great years either.
“He’s got physical gifts that nobody else has,” Kiper said. “So I think in a quarterback year where there are a lot of question marks … it’s a year where he probably still would be, if he comes out, evaluated fairly highly.
“I think he could still be in the first-round discussion, just because he has things that nobody else has. Which are things that you can’t coach, can’t teach. Which is the great size, physicality, arm strength and all that, mobility. He would be a guy a quarterback coach would have to work with and tweak some things, but as far as potential, he has the most.”
Kiper said Thomas, who has thrown for 2,407 yards and 14 touchdowns but also 14 interceptions, has made “some bad decisions, some inaccurate throws, some mistakes at crucial times,” but added that it’s not all on him, since the offensive line has struggled, the running game hasn’t produced much and the receivers haven’t been consistent.
“But at the end of the day, you need to make plays and you need to make accurate throws and you need to make good decisions,” Kiper said. “And that’s something with Logan Thomas where he’s struggled. Again, you can’t blame it all on the quarterback, but as far as maintaining a top-five, top-10 grade, he certainly hasn’t been able to do it. Do I think he can still be a first-round pick? Yes, I do.”
Kiper said the decision Thomas has to make is if he thinks he can come back for his senior year and get back in the discussion for being one of the top overall picks.
“If you feel like you can go back up to the top-five, top-10, then he would be better served to go back to Virginia Tech,” he said. “So I think he has to be aware of where he is projected, and of course the advisory report will help him with that. And if he’s OK with that, you come out. If not, if he wants to go back and try to improve his stock and get back into that No. 1 pick overall category, which he has the physical ability to be at, then you go back to Virginia Tech. So it’ll be interesting to see what his final decision is.”
As far as other Virginia Tech players, Kiper said despite his faults, receiver Marcus Davis still has the physical tools that would have NFL general managers take note.
“There’s inconsistency, not natural catching the ball all the time as you would want,” Kiper said. “But with his size and the way he’ll work out, obviously there are things to like about the kid in terms of what he could be. He could certainly be in that third-round discussion.”
Kiper said junior Antone Exum jumps out at him on defense, for his ability to make plays and his versatility at either a cornerback or a safety.
“He’s the kind of guy who certainly has a chance,” Kiper said.
He also mentioned junior defensive end James Gayle, senior linebacker Bruce Taylor and senior receiver Corey Fuller.
“It’s a case where there are a lot of guys at Virginia Tech to evaluate,” he said. “It’s just that their season has gotten away from them a little bit.”
November 14, 2012 - 12:00 PM
Note Kiper’s comments on Davis. There will ALWAYS be some NFL team that drafts based solely on combine & workout numbers. They ALWAYS think they can ‘straighten out this guy, and he’ll be a star’. They’re right about 1% of the time, but several teams do that every draft. Every single draft.
Again, on Thomas – he’s got to ask himself if he will be better coached/trained by NFL coaches, or by O’Cain & Stinespring. The answer is more than clear, and the money that comes from a 2nd or 3rd round pick is still extremely good for a QB. Especially if that QB spends his first three seasons learning from NFL coaches. The second contract is the one that sets you for life. The first can, if you’re a superstar in college, but we all should rationally realize that Frank Beamer’s offense is not going to make Logan Thomas a superstar in college. Beamer didn’t even do that for Michael Vick, Michael did it for himself, despite the offense.
Logan should take the money and run, not walk run.
LOL Kiper is crazy. Davis isn’t going to be drafted. Those guys watch film and when they see his lack of effort he will be coaching peewee football somewhere. As for Thomas hahaha he has stunk this season. He needs more time or he will be coaching jr.high ball somewhere. What a laughable article by Mel. I will laugh all day from this one.
CR, Besides Aaron Rodgers, name me a successful NFL QB who sat on the bench for his first 2 or 3 years. They don’t prep them like they used to. Backups get very few reps during practice and rarely play in games unless there is an injury. If Thomas stays in school, he’ll be on the field reading defenses and making throws. That’s much better training than holding a clipboard on the sideline and listening to the OC and starting QB in meetings.
Forgot to add, if he gets 1st round money, I agree he should go.
He’d be foolish to leave. There IS a big difference between 1st round and 2nd…fact is, teams won’t spend a 1st round pick on a QB with the current issues LT is having. With another year with BETTER receivers (yes Coles, Knowles and the rs guys Stanford, Caleb, Irick will be better than Roberts and Davis who have senioritis now), LT will continue to improve on command, reads and accuracy. These young guys will work with LT in offseason to develop chemistry like Fuller has. Why has Fuller looked he best in his timing with LT? Answer: he worked with LT more than Davis and Roberts in offseason. Hungry guys who work hard and will follow LTs lead in offseason conditioning and drills will help everyone. Loss of Roberts and Davis will be addition by subtraction
If any major coaching changes are made offensively at the end of this season(which I seriously doubt), could those changes weigh on Thomas’ decision if he has a new OC or QB coach? If no such changes are made, I don’t see Thomas’ senior season being any different for him, mediocre at best . If that’s the case, he should take RT’s advice and run for the NFL draft.
Can anyone honestly blame Logan if he decides to leave before his senior year? If he is in the top 4 rounds, then why would anyone want stay in college when the risk to stay is much greater than the risk to leave. He stays and blows a knee out or tears up his throwing shoulder, then there isn’t going to be a nice signing bonus as a draft pick. Reality, after such career threatening injuries means can I actually be considered as a candidate to make an NFL team as a free agent. Guys who get hurt, rarely, get top draft status and the money that comes along with it. I don’t know about you but I know that I could help my family out in more than one way from 1st, 2nd, 3rd, or 4th round money.
Now, some old school college football fans will say something about staying to get an education. That’s really a complete waste of breath. Anyone can come back to school to get an education. Some others will say, “Stay and work on your game one more year to up your draft status.” Both sound ridiculous. If they money is there now, you take it. There are no guarantees.
Should we also talk about the fact that he has very little to work in the skill positions of the offense? WR’s will be mostly new. O-Line will be green again. Notice, I didn’t say new. The guys playing this year are old in class but green on the field. Running back, well I’ve said many times that we’re not at the level Virginia Tech is used to experiencing. You’ve heard the cliche before, If you have to play 2 quarterbacks, then you really don’t have one. If you have to play 4 running backs, then you really don’t have one to count on.
If Logan can get good money he should take it.
The Virginia Tech football program is a sinking ship, and that is where the program has been going for a few years now, actually for many years because of the poor philosophy of the football program, a philosophy that has not and probably will not change in the future.
540Hokie, if you think another year of LT playing in our 1950s offense and coached by our pathetic offensive coaches will help LT vs pro coaching, you are dreaming !! LT, run for the exit !!
Logan needs to stay and mature no matter what you think of the state of the coaches at VT. Yes, the pros will draft on potential alone. Problem is, they won’t RETAIN on potential – at least not for long. It’s a very performance driven league and “what have you done for me lately” is the name of the game.
are we really mentioning logan thomas in the same breath at matt barkley and landry jones…please tell me this article is in the funny papers. mel kiper just lost major cred in my book
oTony said it well. As I tried to pointedly state – can ANYONE honestly say that Stinespring & O’Cain can better prep Logan Thomas to start in the NFL than any QB coach in the NFL, even the WORST QB coach in the NFL?
Take off the O&M glasses for a moment, and think about it rationally, if possible. O’Cain & Stinespring are widely regarded by neutral observers as mediocre college coaches at best. So, they’re supposed to better prep Logan Thomas than any NFL coach? Seriously?
Personally, I think Logan should go. With new sets of receivers, offense line, and more running backs set to arrive, I don’t see how it will help Logan. I think he should go. He ought to be sitting behind a well established starter, and learn the rope, work with the top quarterback coach in the business to be good.
I can see Logan backing up someone like Big Ben, Josh Freeman, or even Alex Smith. Logan in a Harbaugh system? Awesome. Logan in a Pittsburgh offense if Big Ben decide to hang up his cleats? Awesome.
The point is, I think if Logan was to become a back-up, he would be really, really good down the road.
I’m not Mel Kiper, and I don’t work for ESPN, but I don’t see LT being taken in the first round. This whole Cam Newton thing comes to mind. If I’m a general manager and my scout tells me that Logan could be the next Cam Newton, my reply would be…Do we really want the next Cam Newton? Cam hasn’t exactly been leading Carolina to the promised land this year.
If LT can get drafted in late first round or early second round, he should run to the NFL as quick as he can. Staying at Tech for another year is not going to help him. Good chance that he could have an even worse year next year.
Trevor, you’re on the money with your assessment of the best probable path for Logan Thomas. If he were able to be drafted and spend 2-3 years earning behind today’s starter, then he could stick in the league for a while. He’s not going to be a star, but he could stick in the league. The HUGE focus for him, though is to get into the league and then learn. He’s going to learn absolutely zip from his college coaches. The apologists will never admit it, but reality is pretty clear. Logan’s not going to learn a thing by staying. Look at this season. He began the year using poor mechanics. Eleven weeks later, he’s still using the same bad mechanics. His coaches haven’t corrected any of his negatives from the first week. He is a 4th year junior. After four seasons of work, his coaches haven’t gotten him past his current negatives (which we don’t need to list here). How will his staying on campus change that? We all know it won’t. Sure, the pollyannas will say otherwise. But, reality says the opposite.
I wish him the best, and thank him for his time at VT.
Leonard, I’m a Carolina Panthers’ fan and I can tell you that Cam is becoming more and more overrated every week. He is not a team leader. He is a whiner. His decision making is poor at best. It doesn’t help that his offensive line couldn’t run block for an ambulance! His scrambling ability is exposing him to more harm than good (see RG3 getting clocked) and in the last game, he got so beat up that Pat Forde tweeted, “Even Michael Vick feel sorry for him.”
No, I think Logan is probably going to be similar in the Josh Freeman-Aaron Rodgers-Big Ben type of quarterback. They don’t scramble unless they absolutely have to. One reason why Pittsburgh switched from a spread offense to a ground oriented attack is to keep the defenders off Big Ben. Aaron Rodgers don’t make a lot of runs unless he is trying to extend drives or to find an open receiver. Josh Freeman moves in the pocket very well because of his offense line gives him plenty of protection. Alex Smith runs a lot, but I think he has settled more into a pocket passer.
Logan is NOT Cam Newton. Logan doesn’t have the same shifty and acrobatic ability that Cam possess. Logan is more like Big Ben, big bodied, can truck somebody, but prefers to stay in the pocket if he can.
Another thing – Logan has a far more level head on his shoulder than Cam. Remember the controversy about his father shopping Cam around the SEC? Have you heard anything like that about Logan? No. Logan might not like that the fans are second- and triple-guessing his decision making, but he knows it comes with the territory of being a quarterback, being the face of the program.
That said, I think that Logan is more of a late to middle second round draft pick. I think somebody said this year the quaterback class is poor than it was in previous year. Last year, it was the Andrew Luck and Robert Griffin III hype, this year, it’s pretty much meh.
I think what has hurt Logan Thomas this year is the change in offense strategy over the last four years. Tech has switched from a ground and pound offense under Tyrod to a mess of spread/pistol/veer/power running smorgasbord of offense that has absolutely no identity.
Anybody here think next season is going to be any better? I’ll save you the suspense. NO!
Unless Frank Beamer sees the fat hand writing on the wall that says, “CHANGE YOUR OFFENSE STAFF OR SUFFER THE WRATH!” and make the changes that fans are dying to see.
Logan deserves better. He should go.
Logan should take the money and run, if he has a chance to get off the sinking VT ship.
Been saying for weeks he is gone, despite his “plans” to return. And don’t blame him a bit, he should go while the getting is good. Or at least not as bad as it will get next year with a worse O line and the Stinester calling the shots. Not to mention brand new wideouts and the Roll damn Tide to open the season?
Thanks for everything Logan but take the money and run!
Logan’s a solid young guy. I think he wrestles continually with the mantle of leadership he’s been assigned, but he is solid. He’s unlike Cam Newton in that respect, as referenced by Trevor above. Newton loves the limelight & leadership role, but is of dubious character. Logan Thomas is the opposite. He’s of solid character, but dislikes the limelight & leadership responsibilities. I think a few years as a reserve NFL QB will be beneficial for him. Financially, at the very least. The sooner he departs, the better for him. I wish him well, as I know that he will not improve his NFL prospects in the slightest by staying at Tech.