Virginia Tech or Boston College: Who has the edge?
I’m off to Boston today on a solo trip, sans columnist. (Understandably, since Boston College isn’t a very marquee game.) But before I get on the plane here in Greensboro, here is the weekly matchups post.
For those wondering, the injury report didn’t have anything significant on it yesterday. Safety Michael Cole (neck) is out, as everyone knew earlier this week. Punter Ethan Keyserling (sports hernia) is the only other addition. He’s out for the year but hadn’t played in a game this season anyway.
If you missed this week’s podcast that we posted last night, you can get to it here.
Now for a look at the matchups. Feel free to leave your prediction in the comments section below.
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Virginia Tech at Boston College
- Where: Alumni Stadium, Chestnut Hill, Mass.
- When: Saturday, 12:29 p.m.
- TV: ACC Network
- Records: Virginia Tech 4-6, 2-4 ACC; Boston College 2-8, 1-5 ACC
- Series: Virginia Tech leads 14-6
- Last meeting: Hokies won 30-14 in Blacksburg last year
- Line: Virginia Tech by 10
When Virginia Tech passes
There’s been a shakeup at receiver this week. Demitri Knowles (13 catches, 201 yards, TD) and Corey Fuller (36 catches, 671 yards, 5 TD) will start in place of seniors Marcus Davis and Dyrell Roberts, a long overdue move in many peoples’ opinion, especially after video of Davis’ lackluster — or non-existent — blocking went viral this week. It might be just the kick in the pants those guys need, because Tech, which isn’t deep at receiver, will still need them to contribute. Quarterback Logan Thomas has now thrown as many interceptions this year (14) as touchdowns this year. He has thrown two interceptions in each of the last three games, although last week he also threw 298 yards, his second highest total this year.
Boston College is giving up 241.6 yards per game in the air (69th nationally), allowing 12 touchdowns through the air in the last five games. That’s not all on the defensive backs. The Eagles have only six sacks this year, tied for last in the Football Bowl Subdivision. They’re also 119th in tackles for a loss. So this isn’t a group that gets after the quarterback. That puts plenty of stress on the secondary, which, despite the yardage it has allowed, does have 10 interceptions, just as many at Tech. Cornerback Sean Sylvia is second on the team with 82 tackles.
Edge: Virginia Tech
When Virginia Tech runs
The Hokies’ carries continue to be splintered among several players. J.C. Coleman got the most work last week, with 16 carries for 41 yards against FSU’s tough defensive front. He moved the ball a couple times but his (generously listed) 5-foot-8, 192-pound frame didn’t do him a whole lot of good on a couple of inside runs, where it looked like he ran into a brick wall. As some have mentioned before, physics are physics. Tony Gregory got the secondary carries last week. Michael Holmes had an unknown injury that kept him out, but coaches expect him to be back in the mix this week. Just like previous weeks, it’s unclear exactly how the Hokies will split carries. On the line, Tech seemed to move the ball best when Michael Via-Caleb Farris-Brent Benedict made up the interior line, although Benedict missed a key block late that could have paved the way for a touchdown on the Hokies’ second-to-last drive.
BC hasn’t had much luck with injuries on its defensive front. Nine different players have started there. Of the opening day starters, only end Kasim Edebali (43 tackles, 5 TFL, 1.5 sacks) has started the majority of the year. The linebackers are solid. Nick Clancy leads the team with 107 tackles (although he suffered a concussion last week). Steele Divitto, an All-Name first-teamer, has 81 tackles. Kevin Pierre-Louis (68 tackles, 2 sacks) has missed the last two games with a leg injury. It’s unknown if he’ll play this week. The Eagles need all the help they can get. They’re allowing 228.4 yards per game, 116th nationally (only slightly better than Miami). That’s skewed by a few big games — Northwestern had 303 yards, Army 516 and Georgia Tech 396 — but the Eagles have done better the last few weeks, allowing less than 4 yards per rush against Maryland, Wake Forest and Notre Dame.
Edge: Virginia Tech
When Boston College passes
The Eagles have put a lot on quarterback Chase Rettig‘s shoulders. The junior has 2,808 yards and 16 touchdowns to nine interceptions this season, averaging 280.8 yards per game. BC, in fact, has the 32nd-ranked passing offense nationally with 285.5 yards per game, although its yards per attempt average (7.2) is in the middle of the pack. Receiver Bobby Swigert is probably out for the year with a knee injury, but Alex Amidon is the team’s biggest threat, with 73 receptions, a school-record 1,157 yards and six touchdowns. His yardage totals are tops in the league and fourth nationally. Johnathan Coleman, a 6-foot-4 junior, has 30 catches for 439 yards and four scores. The offensive line is about the only part of the team that hasn’t been hit by injuries. The Eagles have started the same five linemen in nine games this year, although they’ve allowed 26 sacks (93rd nationally).
That has to be music to the Hokies’ ears. They brought the house last week and sacked Florida State quarterback EJ Manuel five times (and missed out on a few potential sacks when he slipped out of their grasp). Defensive line coach Charley Wiles told Frank Beamer‘s website that Dadi Nicolas might get more time this week. The redshirt freshman had a sack and a hurry last week in limited snaps. The Hokies are pairing him up with James Gayle on the other side to ramp up their pass rush. The secondary needs a bounceback game. Tech gave up 326 yards and three touchdown last week, including two in two-minute situations that proved costly. With Michael Cole (neck) out, true freshman Desmond Frye will go in the game in the nickel. Tech can’t afford any more injuries on the back end.
Edge: Boston College
When Boston College runs
Injuries to Tahj Kimble and Andre Williams allowed last year’s leading rusher, Rolandan “Deuce” Finch, to work his way out of coach Frank Spaziani‘s doghouse and run seven times for 40 yards against Notre Dame. That’s considered pretty good for a Boston College ground game that has been abysmal for most of the season. The Eagles are averaging only 72.5 rushing yards per game this year, a figure that’s third to last in the FBS, ahead of only Tulane and Washington State. The Eagles are averaging just 2.68 yards per carry. They’ve eclipsed the 100-yard mark only twice. The last two games have been especially bad. BC ran 27 times for 8 yards against Maryland and 21 times for 12 yards against Notre Dame.
Virginia Tech, meanwhile, is coming off one of its best efforts ever at stopping the run, limiting the Seminoles to negative 15 yards last week, their lowest total since at least 1973. Whatever issues the Hokies had earlier this year, they seemed to have it figured out last Thursday. Defensive tackle Derrick Hopkins had a very active game last week against the run. Behind him, Jack Tyler (93 tackles, 11 TFL) and Bruce Taylor (54 tackles, 5 TFL) continue to make plays. It remains to be seen if Alonzo Tweedy or Ronny Vandyke will get the majority of the reps at whip linebacker. Tweedy had six tackles last week in a very specific game plan to harass the quarterback, but Tech might go with a more conventional defense against BC.
Edge: Virginia Tech
Special teams
The Hokies didn’t have any special teams meltdowns last week, but there were still little things that happened that contributed to the loss. Cody Journell missed on a 43-yard field goal, failing to capitalize on a muffed FSU punt. Tech also gave up a 42-yard kickoff return. A change of kickoff specialists might help that. The Hokies are considering going back to Michael Branthover instead of freshman Brooks Abbott, who has handled the job since the fourth game. Teams start with the ball on average at their 17-yard line with Branthover kicking off; the 33-yard line with Abbott. Kyshoen Jarrett (14.5 avg. on punt returns) and Demitri Knowles (28.1 avg. on kick returns) are still threats. Despite last week’s miss, Journell is still 14-for-17 this year. After a rough game at Miami, punter A.J. Hughes had a 44.5-yard average last week.
How’s this for a stat? BC is first nationally in punt returns, thanks to Spiffy Evans‘ 31.6-yard average (he’s another All-Name first-teamer). Granted, the Eagles only have nine returns all year. Nobody else in the ACC has fewer than 14. They’re on the other end of the spectrum on kick returns, ranking 115th nationally. Kicker Nate Freese is 14-for-16 this season, with his only misses coming from longer than 40 yards. BC is second in the ACC with a 37.76 net punting average. Gerald Levano averages 42.3 yards per punt.
Edge: Push
Coaching
Both coaches are feeling a little heat, although it’s only going to cost one of them their jobs. Spaziani has watched the Eagles’ win total drop in each of his four years, from eight to seven to four and now two. That’s a downward trend new athletic director Brad Bates will have a hard time ignoring when making a decision about the future of the program soon. This could be Spaziani’s last home game at BC. You wonder if the Eagles will rally around that fact or crumble because the season has gotten away from them. Beamer is simply trying to right the ship, something he’s been unable to do in his first three-game conference losing skid since 2002. Tech was a properly motivated team last week against Florida State. We’ll see if that carries over to a game that’s not at home and not on national TV.
Edge: Virginia Tech
Prediction
The Hokies haven’t done much to give the fans a whole lot of confidence heading into this game. They’ve lost three straight. They’re winless on the road this year. In fact, they’ve lost seven straight away from Lane Stadium, the team’s longest streak since 1987-88. But Boston College seems like a defeated team with not much to play for. Tech at least has bowl eligibility to reach. BC is simply playing out the string. That could mean a dead environment at Alumni Stadium. I’m guessing a 12:30 start for a struggling team in a town that doesn’t really pay a whole lot of attention to college football to begin with probably will make for a less-than-electric atmosphere. Virginia Tech can’t be sucked into having no energy because of that, something that’s been a problem before.
With Rettig, BC can pass the ball. And Virginia Tech’s pass defense has been suspect at times. That’s the only thing that gives me some pause in this prediction. I think the Hokies will do enough offensively against a banged up Eagles defense to get out of Chestnut Hill with a victory. Not a blowout, but not a particularly close game either.
Prediction: Virginia Tech 23, Boston College 13
November 16, 2012 - 8:42 AM
The opportunity is there for the Hokies to do some serious damage against the Eagles. If it was up to me, I would be calling plays for Coleman to do his things. Of course, it is dependent on Newsome’s personnel decision. Why he continues to insert Wang in the line up is going to be the mystery for ages, the running games are far better when Wang’s butt is parked on the bench, and Newsome seem to be oblivious to that.
Chase Rettig is a good quarterback with a lousy offense. Sound familiar? I think that the defense on the front, especially if it’s true that Dadi would be paired with Gayle, are going to pitch more than just fits. I think Rettig will be running for his life.
I agree, I doubt it’s going to be a blow out, but I think that Tech will score at least in the 30 points range. If they don’t, then there should be rioting in front of Jim Weaver’s office.
Good job Andy, thanks for all your hard work. I start every day, down on the coast of NC, reading the news of the hokies.
I really feal that this team has enough to prove, to have a strong finish, and a bowl win. Go HOKIES! The short coach
Why is VT coaching always Tech’s advantage?? Who believes that ?? LOL
Did you see the UNC OC last ngiht?? ! ! Wow ! I would take him over the entire Hokie staff. Is he that rare, or is VT A.D. that stupid ??
VT 24, Boston 17 . Then on to butcher the Hotmail, ah . . . I mean Yahoo.
In addition to trying to make a bowl game, I think VT’s players (if they have any sense of pride) will simply want to get the taste of defeat out of their mouths. With three straight losses and a bye week thrown in there, it’s been a while since they last won.
Both teams stink!!!………
However, Boston College is at home, and for all intents and purposes, this will be their “Bowl Game”……….
I think the Eagles will be fired up for this game and will pull the upset!!
Boston College = 23……………Va Tech = 20
I think you are correct on your edge factors but this one is played on the field not on paper and my edge goes to BC because of home field. It will be a huge inspiration. Hokies are too inconsistent. VT and UVA will be playing for big stakes next week, who can stay out of the cellar of the ACC Coastal.
If we line up in a power running game we’ll be back to trying to score 20 points again. The Hokies offense needs to stick with what worked against FSU. Spread the field to create running lanes and give Logan more options on passing plays. We just don’t have the OL or talent at RB to play smash mouth football against anybody. @gtbowyer
I was trying to figure how the game would go, and I was estimating a 23-13 VT win this morning, before reading this. I think it’s fairly spot-on. BC’s offense is not very prolific at scoring, and the VT defense should feast on the Eagles. Even though the BC defense is porous, the Hokie offense hasn’t shown any great ability to slice and dice mediocre to pitiful defenses all year, so I don’t think much scoring happens. It could be a 10-7 halftime, and I think turnovers and kick returns make a big difference in giving both teams short fields they can score with.
Andy I, too, really appreciate your work. Thank you.
Since I still say this season is about next year I hope to see some continued improvement. We finally played with passion against FSU and hope that passion continues.
Andy with all due respect, I am going to ignore your prediction in light of your being DEAD LAST in the Fearless Forecasters. Otherwise, thanks for the article. Oh, BTW, you should never take me seriously. But I do want to know why the basketball writer is #1 in the Football contest? Curious minds want to know…
Hokies play extremely well tomorrow. Defense will be stout. A running back finally eclipses the 100 yard mark. Tech wins 42-10.
BC:17
VT:13
Tech needs to finish the season strong with two wins and a bowl game win.
That would help the team next year, but it also might not get any changes in the coaching staff.
Time will tell.
I’ve not been to a game at BC but it should be remembered this is foremost a pro sports town. My son attended a BC/VT game there once and was amazed at the lack of excitement and emotion. And that was with MV and both teams were much better then. He said it was like the fans stopped by the game on their way to something more exciting to do. First the stadium is small, with a capacity of 44,500. I find it difficult to get attendance figures for the current year but in ’11 BC only averaged 35,709 paid attendance. I really see no reason why given BC’s really poor performance this year why fans would flock to this game, especially considering they are playing another under performing team. Home field advantage there will be very minimal.
Greg Bowyer, I’m not advocating a power running game. I’m not advocating smashmouth. Like you said, the OL, especially on the left side with Wang, is simply crap. Did you forget the Duke game already? Coleman topped the 100 yard mark this season and did it straight out of the I-formation with Phillips as the lead fullback blocker. Spreading the field can only work so much. It is the RED ZONE work that has been the most pitiful this season.
Not much comment on tomorrows game but has anybody else noticed the line splits on the fast offenses. It took me back to my days. They split their linemen like the old split “T”. I haven’t seen gaps like that in years. Good concept, split the line and spread the field, lots of lanes to run and pass in. Life is 360 degrees, what goes around comes around. Split “T” line gaps, single wing backfield and pro set receivers, whats new?
I agree that the Hokies should and will win in Boston, especially if they play as well as they did against FSU! Also agree that they should spread the field on O and try some short passes over the middle and let the receivers make a 10 or 20 yard gain as opposed to trying long passes down the side line. Running our backs up the middle or smashmouth football has definitely not worked for us this year. Hopefully this will be a tune up game for those Hoo’s!
I would love to see us steal UNC’s OC…he called some terrific plays last night and puts Stinespring to shame!
Getting Davis and Roberts off the field will make a huge difference in the attitude of this Hokies team. It will boost LT’s confidence, especially if we can get the running game going. I am very pleased to see the coaches make the change in the receiving squad, but I would still like them to settle on one (1) feature back. Andy, I don’t agree with your statement that both coaches are feeling a little heat. I think it’s more like a blowtorch on Beamer’s behind. I predict Hokies 31-10. Go Hokies!!!
Apparently, tomorrow is Senior Day for the BC team. So, there’s that for the Eagles.
OUCH !!
Lots of picks for BC and yes, the Hokies are on the road and sloppy out there… But,
VT 13
BC 10
Great job Andy. But I think it shoul read something like this.
When Va.Tech passes Davis doesn’t catch. When Tech runs the line doesn’t block. Coaching, look for Spriney and new some to continue to stink. They can because no matter how bad we are there jobs are safe. Outcome who gives a crap it’s a wasted year and the kids deserved better then what this offensive staff has done.
Tech certainly should win, since BC is so horrible, but to realize that the Hokies have lost seven away (non-home) games in a row is amazing. I mean, there’s no question Tech will win, but does that mean that Frank will suddenly start blasting us with – ‘We’re better now because we won once, instead of losing eight in a row away…’ all while pretending he’s not knee jerk sensitive to website criticism.
Hokies 23-13 over BC? I just noticed that, I’d taken this game SO for granted. I’m not sure what I’m missing. The difference between the two teams, even in VT’s down season, is really large. This is not a blast at Andy, who continues to shine, but it’s a ponderance at how the Hokies could be THAT weak. To me, this is like the Marshall game.
If the Hokies go to BC and lose another game that they should win, be it by losing the turnover battle, mistakes in the kicking game, offense unable to sustain drives and score in the red zone, defensive meltdown , etc, etc………would it be wrong of me or anyone else who calls themselves a Hokie fan to actually pull for the Hoos the following week to beat the Hokies in hopes it would jarr some sense into Beamer/Weaver that there needs to be change? I know that sounds like Hokie Nation blasphemy to some and can understand that, but if the Hokies lay a stinker in Boston tomorrow(especially offensively) I personally think it might be a good thing for the future of the program if they lost to the Hoos at home the following week. I have heard other fans, friends and family members of mine who donate thousands to the Hokie Club and own season tickets say that they actually had wished that Duke would have added to that 20-0 halftime lead and went on to thrash the Hokies, thus opening the eyes of the powers that be in Blacksburg that there needs to be change. I imagine if the Hokies return from Chestnut Hill with their seventh loss of the year that some of these otherwise loyal fans may just be, somewhere deep inside of them, hoping for the eighth of the year.4-8 might just get something done……
I hope tech loses so Beamer will be forced by money boosters to make coaching changes. It’s the same crap every year they lose and beamer makes excuses so tired of him and this sorry staff. GO EAGLES!!!!!
Andy, can you explain why it took so long to go back Branthover after Abbott continued to struggle? I think any fan immediately noticed the difference in the kickoffs. The statistical difference was huge and should have been immediately noticeable to the coaching staff. I have to wonder how much 12 yards of extra field position contributed to our woes.
Similarly, it shouldn’t have taken a you tube video to show that Marcus Davis was not pulling his weight while blocking. The coaches had to have seen that in the game tape. Why react now?
Is Cole the next Cody Grimm? I don’t even remember his name being mentioned preseason, but there he is starting. Where did that come from?
Also can you tell us what to expect (hope for) at receiver and running back next year? DJ Cole is back, although I don’t want to pin too much hope on him and Knowles has shown great promise, but this has been hugely impactful on our season. It’s only exceeded by our absolute inabiity to run the ball from the RB position. Our running backs are too small and lack the ability to break ANY tackles this year. I don’t see this getting any better. They’re still very young, but how did we miss so badly on Cole and Holmes? I’ve seen absolutely no hint of ability in Holmes but Beamer hung his hat on him until his arguments became as stupid as the 2 or 3…3 or 4…4 or 5 plays we were missing that would have resulted in us winning.