Go pro or come back? The case for quarterback Logan Thomas to return for his senior season
As the deadline approaches for underclassmen to enter their names in the NFL Draft, there has still been no official word from three juniors at Virginia Tech who have to make a decision.
Quarterback Logan Thomas, defensive end James Gayle and cornerback Antone Exum have all received a draft grade back from the advisory board, although none have made that information public.
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Thomas, obviously, is the highest profile of the three. Projected as a top-five pick last offseason, he watched his stock drop considerably throughout an erratic year in which he couldn’t throw the ball with any consistency. Yet he’s still a potentially high draft pick because of his physical tools.
Thomas has said it would be hard to turn down first-round money if he were projected to go that high (chances are his grade isn’t that good), but he also said this before the bowl game: “More time to be able to play some more games isn’t always a bad thing. I don’t think I could go in and start an NFL game right now and be fine and come out with a win, so I think I need some work to be done, but that comes with practice.”
The thing is, NFL teams don’t often draft quarterbacks in the first round — or in the first three, really — if they don’t intend to start them very soon in their careers. In the last four years, 13 quarterbacks have been selected in the first round of the NFL Draft (I accidentally omitted Christian Ponder earlier). Eight started from Day 1, including all four taken in the first round last year (plus third-rounder Russell Wilson). Of the 13, 12 started at least one game in their first year in the pros.
Of the 22 quarterbacks taken in the first three rounds of the NFL Draft the last four years, 17 have started at least one game in their rookie year. Two – Jake Locker and Colin Kaepernick – started their first game in their second year. Three have never started a game, two of which are backing up Tom Brady and Peyton Manning.
Here’s the list:
2012
- 1st round, 1st pick: Andrew Luck, Indianapolis — started from Day 1
- 1st round, 2nd pick: Robert Griffin III, Washington — started from Day 1
- 1st round, 8th pick: Ryan Tannehill, Miami — started from Day 1
- 1st round, 22nd pick: Brandon Weeden, Cleveland — started from Day 1
- 2nd round, 57th pick: Brock Osweiler, Denver — backup
- 3rd round, 75th pick, Russell Wilson, Seattle — started from Day 1
- 3rd round, 88th pick, Nick Foles, Philadelphia — started in 10th game
2011
- 1st round, 1st pick: Cam Newton, Carolina — started from Day 1
- 1st round, 8th pick: Jake Locker, Tennessee — started in 17th game
- 1st round, 10th pick: Blaine Gabbert, Jacksonville — started in 3rd game
- 1st round, 12th pick: Christian Ponder, Minnesota — started in 7th game
- 2nd round, 35th pick: Andy Dalton, Cincinnati — started from Day 1
- 2nd round, 36th pick: Colin Kaepernick, San Francisco — started in 28th game
- 3rd round, 74th pick: Ryan Mallett, New England — backup
2010
- 1st round, 1st pick: Sam Bradford, St. Louis — started from Day 1
- 1st round, 25th pick: Tim Tebow, Denver — started in 14th game
- 2nd round, 48th pick: Jimmy Clausen, Carolina — started in 3rd game
- 3rd round, 85th pick: Colt McCoy, Cleveland — started in 6th game
2009
- 1st round, 1st pick: Matthew Stafford, Detroit — started from Day 1
- 1st round, 5th pick: Mark Sanchez, New York Jets — started from Day 1
- 1st round, 17th pick: Josh Freeman, Tampa Bay — started in 8th game
- 2nd round, 44th pick: Pat White, Miami — never started
Looking at that, it’s hard to imagine an NFL team selecting Thomas high and not inserting him in the lineup early on in his career.
There’s also a financial aspect. The 15th pick in the first round last year, Seattle defensive end Bruce Irvin, signed a four-year contract for $9.34 million under the NFL’s rookie salary scale, with a $5.2 million bonus. A mid-second round contract, for comparison’s sake, was worth $4.3 million with a $1.5 million bonus. A mid-third round contract was worth $2.7 million with a $588,000 signing bonus.
Now, that’s not chump change, and it’s life-changing money to 99 percent of the population. But it’s clear Thomas could play himself into a financial windfall if he returns and has a strong senior season. Last year, Luck’s contract was worth $22.1 million with a $14.5 million signing bonus. Griffin, who was taken right behind him, signed a $21.1 million contract with a $13.7 million signing bonus. Even Tannehill, the third quarterback off the board with pick No. 8, got a $12.6 million contract with a $7.6 million bonus.
If Thomas could match his on-field performance with the physical tools that pro scouts still love, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him taken in the top half of the first round with a solid senior season. Look what even a decent season has done for N.C. State’s Mike Glennon, who some are projecting to be the first quarterback off the board, in large part because of a similar physical build (6-6, 232) to Thomas.
It remains to be seen what Georgia’s Aaron Murray and Clemson’s Tajh Boyd do with regards to the NFL. Both are juniors. Both had big finishes to strong seasons in a bowl game. And although neither possesses the same physical skills as Thomas, both have far larger resumes of success in college and could be attractive for an NFL team looking for someone to play right away.
Their decisions could affect Thomas’. This year’s draft class is not particularly strong at quarterback. USC’s Matt Barkley, West Virginia’s Geno Smith and Glennon appear to be emerging as the top three on the board, although none have that Luck/Griffin buzz. NFL Draft Scout has Murray first, Tennessee’s Tyler Bray second and Boyd sixth in its 2014 quarterback rankings. (Bray has already announced he’s turning pro.) Thomas is fourth, although the field would open up if either Murray or Boyd goes pro.
The argument for leaving early always hinges around potential injury and what kind of coaching Thomas will get his senior season at Virginia Tech. If he doesn’t think he’ll get the kind of instruction that can help him advance his career and succeed at the next level, it would make sense for him to get that work at the pro level as a backup. What Frank Beamer does in the next weeks with his offensive coaching staff could have a major impact on Thomas’ thinking.
Looking at the larger picture, there seems to be many more reasons for Thomas to return to Virginia Tech for his senior season than turning pro. That’s not to say players in the past haven’t made decisions that defied logic, though.
In the end, the only opinion that matters is Thomas’. Everyone will just have to wait and see what he decides.
January 4, 2013 - 10:32 AM
u didn’t mention the K state QB?
NFL Draft Scout has Klein as the No. 14 QB in the 2013 class. A lot of folks don’t even think he’ll play QB at the next level.
AB -
Sir, you forgot to address the single most important fact:
Logan Thomas already graduated. He can still be drafted and gains nothing by coming back to a VT squad that is rebuilding the offense. He will go PRO as it is the only logical move he has left the chess board.
RT
Christian Ponder 2011 12th pick in the first round
How about the best reason of all why he shouldn’t go pro: The guy can’t throw the ball in the ocean!
At least in 2013 he’ll have far more experienced OLs, WRs and RBs to give him more time and make him look good.
Staying!
Shoot, how’d I forget Ponder? He too started in his first year eventually, once the Vikings ditched McNabb.
He should “get the h… out of dodge” as soon as possible. Beamer’s system is not for the pros.
#1) he accomplished his undergrad degree – CONGRATS
#2) in NFL off-season he would get lots of practice and reps, only to not get any during season if he is not starting.
#3) staying will get him rep’s, practice time, in game situation time..
#4) He’s got the physical dimensions that they drool over, yet still requires accuracy, reliability that only comes from ‘game situations’ and speed.
If I were him, I would stay, I think his ‘stock’ will only rise with another year… wait… wait for it.. UNDER PROPER Coaching and LEADERSHIP to develop him…
I don’t see any reason why the status of the Hokie offensive coaching staff would affect Thomas’ decision. Should nothing change (not happening), it would only hurt him to stay. Should the latest greatest offensive coaching geniuses in college football be hired (also not going to happen), it would take him the better part of a season just to get his nose above water. So why wait? We all know (and some of us even admit) that NFL coaches can instruct him better than Stinespring & O’Cain. He’d be paid hundreds of thousands of dollars and also get exponentially better compensation. Please explain to me the downside? He graduated two weeks ago, for all the knee jerk uninformed blather that normally ensues on that angle, so save the bandwidth.
Another thing mentioned in last nights bowl game, 2 or 3 years ago Klien was a TE. Interesting, mentioned early as a Heisman candidate and has the same pedigree as LT.Depends on what kind of legacy LT wants to leave and then carry forward. Without developing the tools and resume he could end up as another Tebow, teams looking for a position to put him to get some return for their investment. It will depend on who has the most influence in his young life and if they have his best interest at heart. If they do they will advise him to return.
I would be really disappointed if my favorite NFL team used an early round draft pick on Logan Thomas. When given time in the pocket this year, LT has consistently missed wide open receivers. It would be an irresponsible, perhaps even a waste, of an early round draft pick.
You do realize that guys play as graduate students all the time, right?
The Hokies had 15 graduates on the roster last year alone, most in the country. It’s quite common at a place like Virginia Tech where guys almost always redshirt their freshman year.
Also of note, Exum earned a business degree in three years too.
Did he get the degree last year Andy? He has been a student for 4 years. Every fifth year senior should be a graduate. It’s not like they pursue rigorous academics anyway.
He should go. The Steelers need a QB .
I believe he did. At least that’s what the game notes indicate.
#13 post by AB? Directed where? Is there another ‘can’t discuss because Hokie coaches don’t release quotes’ intent here? Or is it just pointed at somebody making the case Logan Thomas will gain nothing by staying around to bask in the aura of Frank Beamer for another season, and further Frank’s W-L record? Not really sure where that was directed, nor why…
Proof reader- I hope the Steelers take him. I really don’t like the Steelers and this would be a perfect waste of a pick for them.
I think Thomas should move on. Better coaching and good money. Likely no pressure for the first year or two. I understand that guys want to be difference makers from day 1 but the traditional model of QB development is 3 years to start.
The success of Wilson, Luck and RGIII are going to make a difference in some minds because they are impact players right away. But look at them:
1. Luck was born to it. An NFL QB father who was home to teach his kid. Plus, Oliver had the kid in Europe during the old NFL Europe days and got him toutored young. This kid was NFL ready if anyone could be.
2. RGIII. Shanahan brought the offense to RGIII. They gave him an “either or” scheme (choice of 1 of 2 WRs) coupled with a strong run game. Not often have teams changed to fit their QB as readily.
3. Wilson. Probable #2 draft pick if he was taller.
The struggles of Sam Bradford are by far the norm in the NFL. Heaven only knows how well Thomas will do but comment #5 is wrong. The guy throws a great ball when his WRs decide to play and his line hasn’t broken down. His numbers were actually better in some regards this season over last. I just don’t see him benefitting from another year either financially or skill wise.
Time to go.
Crooked, my comment was directed at you. (And I have no idea what you mean by the “can’t discuss” comment.)
I don’t think graduating has a whole lot to do with Logan’s decision. If he hadn’t, perhaps it would entice him to come back. But grad students play all the time. It’s not unusual.
I think Logan’s decision will come down to whether he wants to continue to be a starting college QB or an NFL backup next year. That’s what I’d guess he’s looking at. Not whether he’s graduated or not.
I think LT will go pro. Being the pessimist that I am it looks like Beamer is going to put off a coaching announcement until the public outcry dies down at which point he will very quietly do nothing. Unless he is waiting to pluck someone from a yet to play bowl team why would he wait to make the move? Most coaches make moves within days of the final game if not before. If Beamer does nothing, I see 4 wins next year: Western Carolina, Marshal, Duke and BC. Why would LT stay for the same coaching and a losing record? No improvement to the draft stock there.
Teams may not need QB’s this year and QB’s cost a lot of money. Do they want to risk losing a receiver, a back or a lineman to spend up and get a QB who had an off year?
I don’t think Thomas is in a position to help a struggling NFL team. He’d make a great 3rd team QB while he learns the trade and does a little tight end duty. That’s where I think he has a shot. He has a lot of potential.
WHERE IS THE LOVE FOR NICK FLORENCE?????????????????
Didn’t he break RGIII’s school record for passing yards?
I repeat, didn’t he break RGIII’s school record for passing yards? Are you going to sneeze at this?
Now, I am obviously NOT saying he’s better than RGIII, but you have to realize that this dude is smart as hell who can toss the football with underrated running ability (over 500 rushing yards) and would be a major late round steal.
Can we just forget this LT experiment and let him play his natural position?
He has poor accuracy, poor vision and clearly not the “feel” you see in top QB’s.
Sure, he has a nice arm and can throw a deep ball in the general area, but he lacks the intangibles, and I would argue, confidence at that position.
Looks like a great kid who could be in the NFL for a long time-at Tight End!!
Comment by Steve 78. Add one win UVA. Where will the improvement come from on the offensive line and where is the improvement coming from on receivers. Do we have another Davis??????
#20, AB, you get to interview him on a weekly basis if you desire, certainly not me. You should know better than me know how Logan Thomas would benefit from an additional year of ‘instruction’ from Mike O’Cain & Stinespring, or from a different offensive coaching staff. I would really like to hear that analysis. I just don’t see the benefit. If it is there, I’d love to see the explanation. That’s all.
Jimmy Graham was a failed basketball power forward at the U. Then he played one season of football for the U and had only 213 receiving yards total. I doubt how many VT fans even remember his U career on the gridiron. Still, he had potential and was drafted in the third round by the Saints AND LOOK HOW HE’S DOING NOW!!!!!!!!!!!!!! HELLOOOOOO!!!!!!!!!!!!
Logan Thomas really should consider throwing in the towel now and move to being an NFL tight end. He has all the physical tools to make such a move. Tight end is a hot commodity in the NFL right now; hell, the Pats use TWO star tight ends. #24 is right, Logan just doesn’t have the confidence of a Dustin Pedroia, who didn’t give a damn what anyone was saying or let anybody get into his head while he was batting under .200 early in his career and just kept fighting with swagger.
Crooked Road, you even irritate the owner of the site. Geez! Now I fully believe a person like you has the right to come on here or any other site and put their two cents in. I only wish the total of all your posts will someday be worth two cents. I’m betting my two cents and more that will never happen.
Evans and Ryan Williams went too soon, hope Logan Thomas, defensive end James Gayle and cornerback Antone Exum are more mature – One more year will surely make a difference in their chances to even make the final cut!
There WILL BE changes in the Offense Coaching Staff Tech has it’s reasons for holding off for now! Give them a break!
CR, LT would learn more playing in B’burg than standing on the sideline somewhere else no matter the coach. There is no substitite for game action. But then I keep forgetting that your opinion is always the right one.
Da Bears, I do remember the game Graham played for Miami in Blacksburg. I know of at least two passes that were right in his hands and he dropped them. I knew then he’d never make it in football. NFL often drafts on potential. Due to his size I think they would want to try LT at QB first. A position change still could be in his future.
I could go on…if I’m not mistaken, Antonio Gates didn’t even play football in college…now to be fair, unlike Mr. Graham, Mr. Gates was very good in college as a basketball player (he led Kent State—KENT STATE!!!!—to the Elite Eight) and moved to football because a tweener forward in basketball gets to be a major mismatch tight end in football given that he’s athletic and smart enough.
#30. Shockingly enough I am with CR on this. LT is not going to increase his NFL value or readiness as a QB at VT. We aren’t a QB school. Vick and Taylor are unique in their athletic talent and the best play call during their eras was “Guys, do your thing”.
If LT can make it as a NFL QB is up in the air and not our decision to make. If he wants to take a shot, well, have at it and it is better to be drafted than go as a free agent.
I agree that Evans needed another year. The fact he can’t get past the scout team in two cities is testament to that.
I disagree on Williams. Another year at VT would not have prevented the injuries that have hit him in AZ. His problem is breakage, not maturity.
I think all of the current crop (except LT unless he switches positions) could use another year in the Burg. Exum looked out of position and lost so many times. I think he is a NFL talent, and for sure a high character guy, but let him stay on the farm a little longer.
Gayle got pushed around way too much and really needed Maddy on the field and at high speed to take the pressure off. Another year in the weight room won’t hurt him and heaven knows Bud can continue to coach him up.
I heard Coale is healthy again so I am eager to see what he can do with a whole summer camp. Them Cowgirls is deep though so he may be movin’ on downarow…..
I have to admit – I love me some Danny Coale. Heart of a Lion, much less a Hokie, and I wish him even more success than Nick Sorensen. In the long run, unless you’re a Ray Lewis legend, it’s about the paycheck. So, that is why I want a long career, however inconsequential the stats.
From reliable source: Weaver will make an announcement on Monday to retire, Beamer will be the new AD. Foster is the new HC, and Beamer Jr is the new OC.
AB,
The main Question is does Virginia Tech want to be a Football Power or not? Spend the Money get a GOOD coach for our offence .Let get on with it!!.Go hokies spend the Money!
Whoa, got to hear more about that one! That’s a pretty large bomb to drop. I would believe Weaver retiring and Foster as a head coach elsewhere. Short of a major health issue, Beamer won’t go out after a season like this, and I am not aware of Shane’s previous play calling experience.
A team would have to be desperate to draft Thomas in the first round. I think if he is drafted he would be used as trade bait if anyone wanted him. I know Tech won its bowl game but Thomas surely did not impress me as being ready for the pros. I see him being like another Tech quarterback, Don Strock who kept the bench warm and went in to hold for field goals or extra points.
#25 I did consider UVA in my count, see their new hires?
#34 That’s a big bomb to drop. I can accept Shane as OC if Foster is HC and left alone by the AD. You guys can point the names out to me but I can’t remember an overall sports program that has benefited when the head coach of any sport became the AD. Nebraska with Tom Osborne and UGA with Vince Dooley certainly held their own but I didn’t see overall improvement.
Thomas would be insane to return to VT. For what? He has no receivers to throw to and that was obvious this year, there was no Coale, Wilson or Boykin so he is mediocre at best without players like that. The NFL is short on QB’s so it is a perfect opportunity for Thomas; he can sneak in under the radar and maybe end up better than Drunkenmiller did a few years ago. These guys need to go for the $$$ as much as they can, there may not be another opportunity. Evans and Williams did go too early but they weren’t all that good anyway; Thomas is big and strong and there is a lot to work with, he can be a QB, TE or defensive end or even a linebacker. Go for the gold!!!
LT will go to the draft …NBA draft ,with all those bounce passes!
Steve 78…I am not sure we can beat Duke next year. They played better than us, had better coaching and probably should have won their bowl game (without those costly turnovers) I think Duke has a long way to go to be a real threat, but not sure they will be dead last in the ACC for the near future. Also think UVA made a good decision to hire O’Brian, and look for them to improve with better coaching. Still hoping change is coming to Turkeyville in 2013!
My son a senior at VT has been saying the talk around the campus for weeks has been Beamer the new AD.
LT should go! The offensive line will be even weaker next season, losing its best two linemen, tackles Becton and Painter. Unless he wants to take another savage beating, LT should bolt and start playing for pay.
It’s time for Bud Foster to take the reins… he can bring the program back when it needs to be. Frank needs to move on down the bench and leave the program to Bud. I understand Stiney has been offered a position as water boy with the Duluth School of The Inept!
As Brett Butler said in Gone With The Wind, “Who gives a d—!
He’s not ready and won’t get that way sitting on an NFL bench. Andy, any idea what the “success rate” is for Hokies leaving early for the NFL? My sense is that most of those guys would have benefitted greatly by staying, including David Wilson, Ryan Williams and Darren Evans. Another would be Jason Worilds who is finally playing in Pittsburgh, but only after 3+ years of specials teams play, and he’s still not starting.
On a related note…..Beamer OVERUSES the redshirt….they’re gonna leave early….get something out of them while they’re there. The fact that we lead the country in graduates on the team would support that. Sure would have been nice to have Trey Edmonds running the football this year after hearing about the RB committee Beamer and others were so excited about coming into this year.
Somebody just mentioned it earlier but LT loses 3 key receivers and that mixed with a new OC that will want to pound the rock as Beamer likes doesn’t bode well for LT. Oh course his play year doesn’t merit him leaving but the QB class is weak and he might be rated high enough for him to go.
Michele Gordon…she’s worked at Comcast for nearly a decade and is one of the best sports producers around with contacts and sources throughout the ACC. If she says she has a source, I’ll take her at her word.
Check it out:
https://twitter.com/auntshel/status/288016710865399809