January 9, 2008Virginia Tech professor weighs in on Presidential candidatesVirginia Tech political science professor Craig Brians loathes election predictions. But I was able to get him to open up a little bit on his thoughts about the leading Presidential candidates Wednesday. - Mike Huckabee: Brians gives the former Arkansas governor high marks on likeability and his loss in New Hampshire shouldn't be much of a setback. The Baptist minister should do well in South Carolina and even Michigan, which is a more conservative state than people think, he said. But if he somehow falters in South Carolina, his campaign is probably over. - Mitt Romney: The former Massachusetts governor and Mormon also has connections to Utah and Minnesota, where his father was governor. The South is a different story and Brians expects South Carolina to come down to a battle between Romney and Huckabee. A Baptist minister against a person who, Brians said, many Republicans "have a real problem with." - John McCain: Despite his win in New Hampshire, Brians still sounded skeptical about McCain's chances. Again, he pointed to South Carolina. With the Republicans relatively limited campaign coffers, Brians doesn't see more than two viable candidates coming out of South Carolina, a primary that signaled the beginning of the end for McCain in 2000. - Hillary Clinton: For all of her organization, name recognition and funding, Brians thinks the inherent negative feelings Clinton creates in some voters could be her downfall. But he sounded like he put more stock in her victory in New Hampshire, where 52 percent of eligible voters participated, than he did in her loss in Iowa, which had a participation rate of only about 16 percent. - Barack Obama: Similarly, Brians believed that racism may help explain why Obama fared better in the public caucuses in Iowa and the polls in New Hampshire than he did in the privacy of voting booths. In other words, people don't want to admit publicly that they won't vote for a black person. - John Edwards: Between the Hillary haters and the racists, John Edwards could slide through and grab the nomination, Brians said. He needs to fare well in his native South Carolina to prove that he has a chance, however. Brians said Edwards has had a harder time running as an established candidate than he did as an underdog. That combined with his wife's illness and the runaway attention given to Clinton and Obama has hindered his campaign. But Edwards -- a man who has appeared to be overlooked in his own party's primary -- could prove to be a very strong candidate in the general election, Brians said. If Democrats start voting against the candidate they like the least rather than for the candidate they like the most, Edwards could be the choice. "Knowing that, I think we can explain John Edwards' smile last night in New Hampshire," he said. Of course, an earlier conversation I had with Brians only reinforces his warning about how unpredictable elections are. On Tuesday, he mentioned how many voters had negative feelings about Clinton and explained why he thought McCain missed his best chance to be president eight years ago. Then the New Hampshire primary happened. "That's the problem with you journalists, always writing things down," he said when I mentioned his Tuesday comments. |
About this blog
Rhode Island native and Virginia Tech reporter Greg Esposito posts on everyday college life, trends and issues affecting the 35,000-plus students in the New River Valley and beyond.
Tim Thornton, who is old enough to have children attending college, is still taking classes and is still fascinated by colleges, the students who populate them and the bureaucrats who operate them. His reporting beat is Radford University.
West Virginia native Anna Mallory blogs on student life topics at Virginia Tech, Radford University, New River Valley Community College -- and beyond.
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