Note from Dan: Below is an e-mail from my friend Mark, an American who lives in Poland. He’s made guests posts on international affairs and global warming on this blog in the past. This will be an appropriate place to continue discussions about Egypt, of which we got a flurry of comments (on other threads) Tuesday.
The rest is from Mark.
Assuming Mubarak falls, this will pretty much wipe out the US/Israel long standing regional strategy, in my opinion
I believe the likely scenario to unfold would have a lot of parallels to the 1979 Iranian revolution (and for that matter the 1917 Russian revolution); first a transitional moderate government will flounder around for a few months and then a more ideological group will grab power on a long term basis. That latter group in this case will be controlled by the M.B.
In my opinion, what irreversibly set in motion the undoing of Mubarak is the Israeli invasion of Gaza two years ago.
With that, the U.S. and Israel did not leave Mubarak, their “partner,” any good choices. In that sense, the Gaza invasion will likely prove to be a catastrophic strategic mistake for Israel / US.
Ahhh, it seems that more and more frequently Israeli’s testosterone fueled decisions are turning into costly mishaps: the aggression on Lebanon, the war-crime filled invasion of Gaza, giant murder squads operating in UAE.
I would welcome your thoughts on the subject.