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Contest: Predict how SCOTUS will vote on healthcare reform

Steve Petteway | Wikimedia Commons | Balloons by Dan

There they are, the 9 people who will shortly rule on the constitutionality if the Affordable Care Act, aka “Obamacare.” Their ruling, which may be the most momentous one in many years,  is expected any day.

Today, House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi predicted they would rule 6-3 in favor of the law.

What do you think? That’s the subject of our latest three-part contest.

I’m trying to keep this one simple, although the court’s ruling may not be so neat. To narrow the focus, we’ll deal only with the individual mandate to buy health insurance, which is the most contentious part of the law.

First, predict whether the court will uphold the individual mandate in the ACA or overturn it. So the first part of this three-part contest is to answer “uphold” or “overturn.”

Second, predict the vote. That should be 5-4, 6-3, 9-0, whatever.

Third, name the justices on each side of the question.

So, if you believe the law will be overturned 5-4, your entry would look like this:

1. Overturn

2 .5-4

3. Majority: Kennedy, Robert, Thomas, Scalia, Alito. Minority: Breyer, Ginsburg, Kagan, Sotomayer.

I’ll accept entries up until the point the news breaks on the decision.

The winner will get to choose a book from Dan’s Bookshelf, and will assume the title of this blog’s reigning Supreme Court prognosticator.

Happy guessing, folks!

 

 

 

Join the conversation [ADD A COMMENT]

121 COMMENTS

  1. Michael A. Howdyshell | June 15, 2012 at 12:09 pm

    1. Overturn

    2 5-4

    3. Majority: Kennedy, Robert, Thomas, Scalia, Alito. Minority: Breyer, Ginsburg, Kagan, Sotomayer.

  2. Sandi Saunders | June 15, 2012 at 12:32 pm

    Upheld

    6-3

    Majority: Kagan, Sotomayor, Alito, Breyer, Ginsburg, Kennedy
    Minority: Roberts, Thomas, Saclia

  3. Jack | June 15, 2012 at 1:00 pm

    As far as this particular bill goes, I hope they do uphold it. I think it would be awesome to be able to drop my health insurance when I don’t need it.

    I just wouldn’t like the precedent that it would set… seems that it would change the relationship between the government and the people in a negative way.

  4. Sandi Saunders | June 15, 2012 at 1:14 pm

    Awwww, just when we had such a good thing going to Jack.

  5. Dan Casey | June 15, 2012 at 1:15 pm

    Predictions, folks! Predictions!

    This is a contest thread.

  6. Liniel Gregory | June 15, 2012 at 1:52 pm

    Five to four – overturn, Reason,logistics and history dictate that the justices consider that our founders never anticipated that the government would be in the business health care for sale and that offenders could be jailed for not participating.

  7. Ron | June 15, 2012 at 1:55 pm

    1. Overturn

    2. 5-4

    3. FOR: Roberts, Alito, Kennedy, Scalia, & Thomas
    AGAINST: Sotomayer, Ginsberg, Breyer, & Kagan

  8. old blue | June 15, 2012 at 2:46 pm

    1. Uphold
    2. 5-4
    3. Majority: Sotomayer, Ginsberg, Breyer, Kennedy & Kagan
    Minority: Roberts, Alito, Scalia, & Thomas

    But Kennedy could easily go the other way.

  9. Cold n P | June 15, 2012 at 2:47 pm

    Overturn. 5-4

    FOR: Roberts, Alito, Kennedy, Scalia, & Thomas
    AGAINST: Sotomayer, Ginsberg, Breyer, & Kagan

    Any court which allowed the abomination of Citizens United cannot be trusted to do right by the people.

  10. Mike | June 15, 2012 at 3:17 pm

    1.1. Overturn

    2 5-4

    3. Majority: Kennedy, Robert, Thomas, Scalia, Alito. Minority: Breyer, Ginsburg, Kagan, Sotomayer.

    I’ll throw this twist in as well…If the ACA is overturned (probably a 50-50 chance), the ruling on severability will be at least 6-3 against.

  11. Aaron | June 15, 2012 at 3:25 pm

    Let’s go with Upheld, 5-4.

    Majority: Sotomayor, Ginsberg, Breyer, Lagan, and….. Roberts.

    Minority: Alito, Scalia, Thomas, Kennedy.

    Roberts knows what power the commerce clause can have and doesn’t want to put too much of a cap on it.

    Kennedy, although usually a swing vote, votes no but will probably write his own dissenting opinion which will essential say that the intent of the legislation is legal, but the verbiage is what crosses the line.

  12. Dave Gresham | June 15, 2012 at 4:25 pm

    Anyone’s guess, but I’ll take a stab for a free book. (Hope you’ve got some Joe Bageant stuff Dan.)

    1. 7-2
    2. Upheld
    3. Majority: Breyer, Kagan, Kennedy, Ginsburg, Roberts, Scalia, Sotomayor
    (Minority: Alito, Thomas).

    Even if it passes, it’s still a long ways from Medicare for All (single payer), that virtually everyone else in the world is doing… Our bought and paid for CONgress is a disgrace.

  13. Hillary | June 15, 2012 at 7:00 pm

    Upheld
    6 – Breyer, Ginsburg, Kagan, Kennedy,Roberts, Sotomayor
    3 – Alito, Scalia,Thomas

  14. dave | June 16, 2012 at 12:39 am

    I don’t reqally thinkthis will happen, but just to be different”

    Upheld

    7-2

    Everybody is for it except the two disgraces, Scalia and Thomas. There will be two different opinions written among the seven who uphold it.
    with Roberts, Alito and Kennedy upholding for different reasons than the other four.

  15. Dan Casey | June 16, 2012 at 1:10 am

    Reality guess:
    1.Uphold
    2. 6-3
    3. Majority: Roberts, Sotomayor, Ginsburg, Kennedy, Breyer, Kagan
    Minority: Scalia, Thomas, Alito

    Fantasy guess:
    1. Uphold
    2. 8-1
    3. Thomas will be the only one in the minority.

  16. Art Hill | June 16, 2012 at 1:26 am

    Agree with Dave and Aaron. Commerce clause too important to Roberts and Scalia to check power.

    7-2
    Upheld
    Majority-Roberts, Scalia, Sotomayor, Kennedy, Ginsburg, Breyer, Kagan.
    Minority-Alito, Thomas

  17. Suzie | June 16, 2012 at 7:05 am

    Overturned 5-4.

    The three embarrassments to womanhood, the clueless Ruth Buzzi Ginsburg, the “brilliant” history major (how can you tell?) and the softball player with the stubby fingers, plus Breyer will oppose.

    http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/chatterbox/2000/03/does_a_short_index_finger_make_you_gay.html

  18. Suzie | June 16, 2012 at 2:17 pm

    Unqualifed 0bama picked two unqualified justices. Why would we be surprised?

  19. John Wilburn | June 16, 2012 at 7:19 pm

    1. Overturn

    2. 5-4

    3. Majority: Kennedy, Roberts, Thomas, Scalia, Alito. Minority: Breyer, Ginsburg, Kagan, Sotomayer.

    I did the work in my head and as I got the end of the post, Dan had my prediction as his example! Save for two typos, a straight cut and paste!

  20. Chuck | June 17, 2012 at 12:05 pm

    Dan, quick question. A lot of votes seem to be exactly the same. How do you pick a winner if several people have the right answer with the correct breakdown?

    Based on what I saw in the argument phase, I suspect it will be:

    Overturned

    5-4

    Majority: Kennedy, Roberts, Thomas, Scalia, Alito
    Minority: Breyer, Ginsburg, Kagan, Sotomayor

    That is my vote. I think Kennedy is the swing vote and I think he is concerned about the precedent it would set. Ginsburg and the Obama appointees are pretty clearly in support of it. I don’t think Obama would have appointed Kagan and Sotomayor if he didn’t already have assurances they would support his only truly landmark piece of legislation. However, given some of the questions the Justices were asking, I actually wouldn’t be surprised if it were 6-3 to overturn, with Breyer jumping ranks to vote with the majority.

  21. Rob Thommins | June 17, 2012 at 12:57 pm

    I suspect they will vote in true “Chicago” fashion with
    a total of 14 votes being cast.

  22. paul morrow | June 17, 2012 at 3:21 pm

    Upheld 5-4. The libs on the court are mad about this Roberts slapdown of Obama thus the future “contention” spoken of by “the senior lady”. Hell hath no furry like a liberal woman scorned. Contrary wise Thomas or Roberts would not throw a fit if his side lost. He would just press to the next issue before him.

  23. Kristen | June 17, 2012 at 5:57 pm

    Thomas “would not throw a fit”? They don’t even let him talk. He’s unlikely to throw a fit.

  24. Maloof | June 17, 2012 at 10:02 pm

    6-3 overturned
    Majority: Kennedy, Roberts, Thomas, Scalia, Alito, Breyer
    Minority: Ginsburg, Kagan, Sotomayor

  25. dave | June 18, 2012 at 2:28 am

    Kristen

    “They don’t even let him talk” Actually, he just sits around his chambers
    watching porno movies and harrassing female employees while his clerks do all the work. Scalia tells Thomas’s clerks what to write, and then Thomas signs off on it between hweavy breathing sessions.

  26. Jack | June 18, 2012 at 10:01 am

    I don’t think it is a matter of not letting him talk. I believe Clarence Thomas chooses not to speak.

  27. Kristen | June 18, 2012 at 11:12 am

    Jack, there’s not one single way to positively interpret his silence. He’s being paid to do a job, not sit there mute. If he’s not asking questions, where the heck are his rulings coming from?

  28. Bob | June 18, 2012 at 11:37 am

    Ginsburg will overturn it. It’s even too radical left for her!

    This live J Geils CD is AWESOME!!

  29. Chuck | June 18, 2012 at 12:50 pm

    I think you are probably right dave. Thomas just as certainly does this as does Bill Clinton spend his time chasing interns and assistants around whatever desk is available trying to find a place to hide his cigar.

  30. Victor Bongard III | June 18, 2012 at 1:37 pm

    Individual mandate upheld, 5-4
    Majority: Breyer, joined by Ginsburg, Kagan, and Sotomayor, with Kennedy concurring (because he will come to the correct conclusion that it is unconstitutional, but is too much of a pragmatist to upset the apple cart)
    Dissent: Thomas, joined by Scalia; separate dissent by Alito, joined by Roberts (because Alito is a statist at heart, and Roberts knows where is bread gets buttered but is too politically savvy not to play both sides)

  31. dave | June 18, 2012 at 1:38 pm

    Jack

    There’s a difference between choosing not to speak and having nothing of value to say. I think Thomas fits in the latter category.

  32. Peppers Ferry | June 18, 2012 at 2:56 pm

    To Kristen. Do you know what a “brief” is ?? Read Proverbs about being thought a fool !

  33. will | June 18, 2012 at 3:05 pm

    http://180movie.com/

    “Those who do not learn from history are doomed to repeat it”.
    watch this please
    Talk about choosing not to speak. Let’s hope the SCOTUS gets THIS one right. Didn’t the Nazi’s take over health care as one of the ways to gain control of the population?

  34. Kristen | June 18, 2012 at 3:14 pm

    “Read Proverbs about being thought a fool!”

    Is that the one where it’s better to be silent and thought a fool than to open your mouth and remove all doubt? Because that’s my take on Thomas.

  35. Keith | June 18, 2012 at 3:20 pm

    1. Uphold

    2 .6-3

    3. Majority: Kennedy, Roberts, Breyer, Ginsburg, Kagen, and Sotomayer The Chief Justice will read the decision.

  36. watchdog | June 18, 2012 at 4:17 pm

    1. Overturned

    2. 6-3 even the Lib’s no its bad legislation

    3. Everyone EXCEPT Ginsburg, Breyer & Kagan

  37. mike O | June 18, 2012 at 5:01 pm

    OK…I’ll go out on a limb and say 7-2 overturned with majority (plurality): Roberts, Kennedy, Thomas, Scalia, Alito, Breyer and Sotomayer (and various differing reasoning’s)
    Minority: Ginsburg, Kagan.
    This could be Sotomayer’s opportunity to establish herself as somewhat independent and not beholden to the extreme which could prove interesting.

    Dan… Is “debates on the constitution” in your library? Mine is getting a bit tattered… lol

    Also, as for Thomas, anyone who might take the time to study the man and not just look at worn out liberal abusive rhetoric will find a truly inspiring individual story.
    Whatever happened to the left’s call for “civility”?

  38. Sandi Saunders | June 18, 2012 at 6:19 pm

    will, you’s mighty sceert a them Natzis aintcha?

    Do you ever read or watch anything that is not propaganda?

  39. Cold n P | June 18, 2012 at 6:33 pm

    will, nice try connecting universal health care to the nazis. This is an Epic Fail. Otto von Bismark instituted Germany’s “universal” heath care in 1883, 50 year’s before the nazis came to power.

    To this day, Germany consistently rates higher than the overpriced, over managed, over rated private health care we suffer with in the U.S.

  40. Dan Casey | June 18, 2012 at 6:59 pm

    Cold,

    I’d guess that will is saying it’s still a “Nazi” thing because they didn’t get rid of it.

    By the same logic, Social Security is all Ronald Reagan’s fault. . .

  41. gdad | June 18, 2012 at 7:11 pm

    #33 Oh good god, will. Read up a little before you comment.

  42. Steve C | June 18, 2012 at 7:12 pm

    Ya’ll pay no mind will with a small w’s incoherent ramblings in #33; he’s just speaking in Feeble-ese, his native tongue.

  43. Cold n P | June 18, 2012 at 7:21 pm

    Just keep’n ‘em honest….Somebody out there just might believe the bull crap. Wait, let me re-phrase that. TOO MANY people out there believe the horse manure lies the GOP is spreading. Just trying the keep the historical record straight.

  44. mike O | June 18, 2012 at 7:25 pm

    Interesting comments regarding pre WW German policies…
    How did that work out for them??

    But of course we should follow that lead…

    Play the song to the end…

  45. Dan Casey | June 18, 2012 at 7:35 pm

    “Interesting comments regarding pre WW German policies…
    How did that work out for them??
    But of course we should follow that lead…
    Play the song to the end…”

    I reckon mike o is dead right about this one. After all, every German who was alive in 1883 is now dead. Obviously, it was national health insurance that killed them . . .

  46. Cold n P | June 18, 2012 at 7:39 pm

    mike-o, history is history. No matter how bad the gop wants to re-write it.

    Trust me on this one, You’re in way over your head.

  47. Kristen | June 18, 2012 at 7:40 pm

    “Didn’t the Nazi’s take over health care as one of the ways to gain control of the population?”

    No, they didn’t. Feel better now? You’re welcome. :)

  48. Ron | June 18, 2012 at 8:09 pm

    Alright, it seems the predictions have gone by the wayside, so I’ll post this link here. It’s an article in the NY Times in the fall of 2009 about an interview with a German health expert talking about the German system. It’s informative. Perhaps we should think about the German model. :)

    http://prescriptions.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/09/29/health-care-abroad-germany/

  49. Mike Scott | June 18, 2012 at 8:45 pm

    @33″Didn’t the Nazi’s take over health care as one of the ways to gain control of the population?”

    WTF? Looks like someone’s been reading and believing scary made up stuff on the interwebs again.

  50. Kristen | June 19, 2012 at 7:50 am

    Attaching (fill in your pet issue) to the Nazis seems to be a theme on this blog, a la Pistol Pete.

  51. Ken | June 19, 2012 at 9:04 am

    “Homeland” Security always sounds a lot like “Fatherland” to me …

  52. Jack | June 19, 2012 at 8:02 pm

    @Kristen: “Jack, there’s not one single way to positively interpret his silence. He’s being paid to do a job, not sit there mute. If he’s not asking questions, where the heck are his rulings coming from?”

    He is doing his job. It wasn’t until recently that they started asking lots of questions. Traditionally, Supreme Court justices haven’t done much talking during the hearings.

  53. Jack | June 19, 2012 at 8:04 pm

    @Peppers Ferry: “To Kristen. Do you know what a “brief” is ?? Read Proverbs about being thought a fool!”

    Yes, way back when they used to ask a lot of questions, but that was before briefs were filed like they are these days.

    I guess Kristen is under the impression that the Justices know nothing of the case other than what is presented to them during oral arguments.

    Many Constitutional scholars consider Thomas to be the more traditional justice in this sense.

  54. Jack | June 19, 2012 at 8:08 pm

    @ME: “Many Constitutional scholars consider Thomas to be the more traditional justice in this sense.”

    “Constitutional scholar” not the right term here… meant those who have studied and are considered to be experts on the Supreme Court.

  55. K Kingery | June 19, 2012 at 10:29 pm

    It is un constitutional. I hope it’s overturned.

  56. will | June 20, 2012 at 11:42 am

    Wow guys – I was asking an honest question. I guess I assumed Hitler took over health care because the Nazis’ controlled everything in Germany at that time.

    Sandi – Did you watch the film? Which part of it is propaganda?
    The part about the Nazis under Hitler killing between 11 to 17 million Jews ,Romani, leftists, Soviet prisoners of war, Polish and Soviet civilians, homosexuals, people with disabilities, Jehovah’s Witnesses and other political and religious opponents, which occurred regardless of whether they were of German or non-German ethnic origin. All legally and all while the majority of the German people were duped into believing these groups of people were sub human and did not deserve to live.

    OR the part about how over 50 million of America’s most innocent have been LEGALLY exterminated because they are considered sub – human and do not deserve to live. All while people like you refuse to speak out under the guise of “a woman’s right to choose”.

  57. Kristen | June 20, 2012 at 12:02 pm

    will, glad to help you out with that Nazi thing.

    Your assumption about the majority of the Germans being “duped” into considering those groups to be sub-human is inaccurate, but whatever. I know it’s not about the history with you.

  58. Sandi Saunders | June 20, 2012 at 12:05 pm

    Yeah anonymous “will”, that is me all over the place, refusing to speak out! You are so far right, you do not even see the truth. Why the hell do you think Hitler was able to convince so many “decent” people that his extermination plan was a good one? Why do you think no good Christians stood up to him? Why do you think anyone could cower in the safety of anonymity and spout trash to those who are not? Why do you think the first abortion, murder, rape, assault or hard words happened? It is not my fault that you want to punish people for doing what people have done since Biblical time and I refuse to join you in condemning women who choose abortion until you work to help them choose life. Not going to happen. Kicking someone when they are down is not an incentive, it is punitive, small, cruel and unproductive. Very like your hero, Hitler. You bring him up entirely too often not to admire something about the cretin. Probably his ability to manipulate minds just like yours. That is my guess anyway.

  59. dave | June 20, 2012 at 7:57 pm

    Sandi@12:05

    To be manipulated there must first be a mind.

  60. Suzie | June 20, 2012 at 8:51 pm

    Wow guys – I was asking an honest question. I guess I assumed Hitler took over health care because the Nazis’ controlled everything in Germany at that time.

    Yep, Will he did. All dictators control every aspect of their country, especially something as large as health care.

  61. pammala | June 20, 2012 at 8:58 pm

    ahh but sandi, didnt hitler like abortion and killing babies, just like you?

  62. Chuck | June 20, 2012 at 10:18 pm

    “You bring him up entirely too often not to admire something about the cretin.”

    Careful guys. Using this logic you must admire the hell out of Bush.

  63. Sandi Saunders | June 20, 2012 at 11:18 pm

    Believe it or not, I do admire Bush. I think he was an awful, destructive, inattentive, clueless President, but certainly not a cretin like Hitler and I do not see him behind every policy, POV or position like some do Hitler. I can see why so many of you want to forget Bush and never have him compared to anyone. I am certainly looking forward to when you apply that same principle to Obama and never want him mentioned or blamed after he leaves office.

  64. Sandi Saunders | June 20, 2012 at 11:19 pm

    pammala, do you just lie to hear your head rattle?

  65. Dan Casey | June 21, 2012 at 12:02 am

    I agree with Sandi that Bush was no Hitler. Hitler was evil; Bush was dumb. Hitler controlled people; Bush was controlled (by Cheney). There’s more but you get the drift.

  66. will | June 22, 2012 at 2:37 pm

    WOW Sandi – did I ever get under your skin. For your information, GOOD Christians in Germany did speak out against Hitler. Pastors who did were removed from their post at best and imprisoned or killed at worst. Hitler created his own version of god just like many of you on this blog have. That version of god says it is ok to kill innocent babies in the womb. That version of god says sex outside of the marriage covenant is ok.
    That version of god says same sex marriage is ok.
    That version of god is called idolatry because it is replacing the true God with one of man’s invention.
    You know in your heart right from wrong. You can call a baby a fetus and say it is not viable but one day everyone of us will stand before the one true Holy God and give an account. I wonder if God thinks the fetus is viable?

  67. Kristen | June 22, 2012 at 2:49 pm

    Hitler painted watercolors and wore pants. I really hope no one on this blog likes watercolors or wears pants….care to comment, will? Because I’d hate to think you were another Hitler.

    And FYI…I can guarantee you Hitler would have squashed same sex marriage just like…hmmm….who comes to mind. Hitler definitely had the same vision of God you do, will.

  68. will | June 22, 2012 at 2:59 pm

    And by the way Sandi – I do help young men and women to make good choices on a weekly basis. Do you? And I have a right to use my first name on here thereby remaining anonymous. Why are you guys so obsessed with my name anyway? How do I know Sandi Saunders is your real name? If you want to meet me sometime I’d be glad to have a face to face conversation with you. I’ll bring my wife and some of the teenagers I have helped and you can bring your husband and some of the people you spend your time helping. And Hitler is not my hero I loath him and what he stood for.
    You are closer to his beliefs than I am because you agree it should be legal to kill babies. I am sure most German’s of the day would adopt your attitude “I don’t really agree with it but the government says it’s legal. I would not personally kill a Jew but it’s a possibility that Nazis are right about them “not being viable” so I cannot condemn them for killing Jews”.It’s their “choice”.
    Just like Jews — the babies in the womb have no choice.

  69. Sandi Saunders | June 22, 2012 at 3:05 pm

    Please do not flatter yourself will. I respond to people annoy me often. You are not capable of getting “under my skin”.

    Say what you like, Hitler and the Nazis could not have risen to power without the support of those bellowing Christian crowds chanting and urging him on!

    Whine all you like, you don’t know God and it shows.

  70. will | June 22, 2012 at 3:59 pm

    Kristen – Hitler did squash same sex marriage. In fact he killed many homosexuals. Along with many blacks, Russians, Poles, babies with downs syndrome and other birth defects, Christians, and anyone else who did not fit into his warped view of “perfect”. And he did it while a whole nation of German’s stood by and said nothing because it was “legal” I do not know if you are being factitious or if you are really believe what you are saying.
    My vision of God comes from His revelation to us through His creation and His Word. Where does yours come from? Do you believe in God? And if you do, do you believe He is holy and just? It is His word that tells us homosexuality is wrong. It is His word that tells us that He sees us and has plans for us before we are even born and that we are knit together by Him in our mother’s womb. I didn’t just make it up. If you have a problem with that, take it up with Him. Just be careful because if you sincerely and prayerfully ask Him, He just might reveal truth to your heart. I pray you will consider what I am saying.
    I am not your enemy.

  71. will | June 22, 2012 at 4:29 pm

    I understand Sandi. You have a warped view of history and a warped view of Christianity. No true Christian would have supported Hitler at that time anymore than any true Christian can support abortion in our time. Your human reasoning has squelched your God given conscience and you have built for yourself a graven image of God that fits your particular world view.
    You accuse me of not practicing what I preach and when I offer to show you the fruit of my labor you say I’m a whiner and don’t know God. I pray that God will remove the blinders of this world system from your eyes and reveal truth to your heart before you step out into eternity without Him.
    As I told Kristen I am not your enemy.

  72. Shelley | June 22, 2012 at 10:44 pm

    Uphold.

    6-3

    Majority:
    Roberts,Breyer, Sotomayor, Ginsburg,Kagan,Kennedy

    Minority: Alito, Scalia, Thomas

  73. Shelley | June 22, 2012 at 10:54 pm

    I have a hard time believing the SCOTUS will overturn the entire ACA; that would be too partisan considering it passed both houses.

    The only reason I think they’ll uphold the individual mandate is that without it, the insurance companies enter a death spiral and this current court is definitely Pro Business/ Corporations.

    If the mandate is overturned and severable we will soon be hearing about ‘single payer’ healthcare since insurance companies will be dropping like flies.

  74. Dan Casey | June 23, 2012 at 12:39 am

    I think Shelley has nailed it. We’ll see. . .

  75. Suzie | June 23, 2012 at 7:26 am

    we will soon be hearing about ‘single payer’ healthcare since insurance companies will be dropping like flies.

    That’s always been the goal with 0bamacare, to drive companies out of business. Anybody who thought this was ever about health care and not total government control just fell off the turnip truck.

  76. Contrasuzie | June 24, 2012 at 2:41 pm

    I would bet most of those Germans stood by and did nothing more out of fear of getting their asses killed or thrown into concentration camps than because they thought what Hitler was doing was legal.

  77. Bob | June 24, 2012 at 2:47 pm

    “Bush was dumb”. OK, I’ll bite. So how did someone SO DUMB destroy a whole economy? That’s right. NAFTA, Barney Frank & Chris Dodd get a free pass, remember the .com companies under Clinton? Jessee Jackson late 90′s shaking down the banks demanding everybody and their mother is constitutionally due a home. Liberals have very short memories. Selective also.

  78. gdad | June 25, 2012 at 10:13 am

    What we know for certain is that if they strike it down, they will cement their place as one of the most activist — if not THE most activist — of all SCs ever. Constitutional scholars pretty much uniformly agree that based on precedent, the law is constitutional.

  79. Kristen | June 25, 2012 at 11:14 am

    Silly gdad….courts and judges are only “activist” when they do things the right doesn’t like.

  80. Chuck | June 25, 2012 at 10:26 pm

    “Hitler and the Nazis could not have risen to power without the support of those bellowing Christian crowds chanting and urging him on! ”

    Do some research Sandi. Hitler had far more support from Muslims than Christians.

    “Constitutional scholars pretty much uniformly agree that based on precedent, the law is constitutional.”

    Really? Name a few of these scholars. Most commentary I’ve read from actual legal scholars (not paid political pundits and hacks) have had some pretty serious questions about the Constitutionality of requiring private citizens to engage in commerce and thus declaring the government then has domain over them because they are engaged in commerce. That was the issue Kennedy raised and seemed most concerned with. The others seem to be largely divided along the traditional political lines with little actual concern for the Constitution.

  81. Chuck | June 25, 2012 at 11:11 pm

    Oh, and let me point something out. I believe those same legal scholars and constitutional experts will tell you that the role of the executive branch is to see that the laws passed by the duly elected Congress are enforced,either by virtue of policy and/or enforcement action. Yet now, we have the Obama administration refusing to enforce the immigration laws that Congress has passed because the Congress didn’t pass the revision to the law that the President wanted. And you think the Supreme Court is activist?

  82. Sandi Saunders | June 26, 2012 at 10:20 am

    Chuck I believe you are more than wrong.

    The German census of May 1939 indicates that 54 percent of Germans considered themselves Protestant and 40 percent considered themselves Catholic, with only 3.5 percent claiming to be neo-pagan “believers in God,” and 1.5 percent unbelievers. This census came more than six years into the Hitler era.

    …Even in the later years of the Third Reich, many Protestant and Catholic clergy within Germany persisted in believing that Nazism was in its essence in accordance with Christian precepts.
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Religion_in_Nazi_Germany

    Please show us how many Muslims were even in Germany during the Nazi reign.

    Fascist Italy and even more so Nazi Germany’s efforts fell on some receptive hearts and minds. To be sure this reception was among a minority of Arab and Islamic political and intellectual elites and was not great enough to tip the scales of the war in North Africa in 1942.

    http://www.bu.edu/historic/conference08/Herf.pdf

  83. Sandi Saunders | June 26, 2012 at 10:23 am

    I don’t simply “think the Supreme Court is activist”, it is well known. Typically, some cannot see activism when the decisions are in their favor but that does not change the truth of it.

    “Charles Fried is a professor of law at Harvard University. From 1985 to 1989, he served as President Ronald Reagan’s solicitor general. He specializes in constitutional law and is the author of many books on the subject, including 2004’s “Saying What the Law Is: The Constitution in the Supreme Court.” He also wrote a brief on behalf of 104 law professors arguing that the individual mandate is constitutional.”

    http://www.americanbar.org/content/dam/aba/publications/supreme_court_preview/briefs/11-398_petitioneramcu104healthlawprofs.authcheckdam.pdf

  84. Sandi Saunders | June 26, 2012 at 10:32 am

    The SCOTUS “has upheld Congress’s Commerce Clause power to reach individuals who were not obviously involved in commercial activity — most famously, the Depression-era farmer who grew wheat for his own consumption. The court concluded that his decision to grow — rather than purchase — wheat interfered with the government’s ability to regulate wheat prices.

    The same logic should hold true for individuals able but unwilling to buy health insurance: Their absence has a significant impact on the market, especially because it is virtually inevitable that they will need health-care services at some point in their lives.

    http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/why-the-individual-mandate-matters-so-much/2012/03/23/gIQA8zCacS_story.html

  85. Dan Casey | June 26, 2012 at 11:07 am

    Chuck’t notion that Muslims backed Hitler’s rise more than Christians did is akin to marveling about how much the average housecat loves to swim.

  86. Kristen | June 26, 2012 at 11:22 am

    Hitler got plenty of support from the Vatican. Wonder if that’s “Christian” enough.

  87. Chuck | June 26, 2012 at 2:39 pm

    Right Dan, but you and your followers ignore something that you are all too willing to embrace when the tables are turned. Many people claiming Christianity as their religion were in the Reich. However, by any accepted moral definition of Christianity, these people did not represent what Christianity actually stands for any more than does the muslim extremist terrorist represent what the majority of muslims stand for. Strangely, when speaking of Islam, liberals have no problem at all pointing out that the terrorists are extremists who are not truly representative of the Muslim faith. Yet when extremists claiming Christianity as their faith are the topic of conversation, liberals eagerly race to attribute the characteristics of the extremists as representative of all Christians. In our modern sensitivity, we can’t talk about ‘muslim terrorists’ without some type of qualifier. Yet no one worries about saying “yep, those Nazis were Christians.”

    As for muslim support of Hitler, they may not have been in Germany, but their was no lack of a connection, support or a common goal. Any of you ever study the war in North Africa as opposed to just Europe? Study history with an open mind instead of a political agenda and maybe you’ll learn something.

    http://www.amazon.com/The-Nazi-Connection-Islamic-Terrorism/dp/1935071033

    Muslims and Nazis of the WWII era shared the goal of the extermination of Jews. It is demonstrative of what I was mentioning earlier; that the Nazis claiming to be Christian weren’t really representative of Christianty. You realy think it makes sense that the Nazis who sought the extermination of the Jewish people were sincere members of a religion that held the King of the Jews as its messiah?

    On a different topic, that of the Arizona immigration decision, I think the Supreme Court is supposed to be activist to an extent. At least in that it should toss out laws that violate the Constitution. Kristen is correct in that people only scream “activism” when it doesn’t go their way. She is wrong in attributing this only to Republicans though (see Citizens United if you need an example).

    Interestingly, no one chose to address the obvious paradox in the Obama administration’s argument that no state should be able to set immigration law and policy because that is up to the feds and that the Arizona law interferes with the enforcement of the current federal law when the administration is openly refusing to enforce the law in the first place. Clearly, at least in the vernacular, the administration is the activist here, choosing not to enforce the laws Congress has passed. The Supreme Court, whether we agree or disagree with the decision, did exactly what it is supposed to do by ruling on this law. Unfortunately, in refusing to enforce existing laws that have passed Constitutional muster, we cannot say the same for the executive branch.

  88. gdad | June 26, 2012 at 3:21 pm

    #87 I know that you’re aware that Christians also despised — and some still do despise — Jews, Chuck.

  89. dave | June 26, 2012 at 3:49 pm

    Chuck

    And you ignore the fact that in truth the Obama administration is enforcing the immigration laws, has substantially tightened border security, and has already deported more illegals in 3 and a half years than the previous administration did in 8. The current selective policy in determining WHO to go after and deport comes from the need to set priorities and make the most efficient use of the limite resources made available for that action by the Congress Would you prefer that those resources be concentrated against the otherwise law abiding stgdents and young people who were brought to this country by parents when they were very young, or would you prefer the emphasis to be on going after illegals who engage in gand violence, drug trafficking , illegal arms sales and other criminal activities. Sometimes good policy is putting your resources where they do the most good and making choices.

  90. pammala | June 26, 2012 at 4:36 pm

    I guess they were also given weapons when he deported them too…you forgot to research how many came back?

  91. Art Hill | June 26, 2012 at 5:31 pm

    Chuck,

    Every president from Reagan forward has modified existing immigration law either by executive order or selective enforcement. Do something positive for America and e-mail Goodlatte telling him to pass the transportation bill.

  92. Richard | June 26, 2012 at 6:11 pm

    Upheld

    6-3

    Majority: Roberts, Kagan, Sotomayor, Breyer, Ginsburg, Kennedy
    Minority: Alito, Thomas, Scalia

    Rationale: Alito and Scalia went ballistic over the immigration decision because they were overwhelmed by the secret knowledge that an even bigger loss would follow.

  93. Dan Casey | June 26, 2012 at 6:18 pm

    I think Richard’s onto something. Roberts and Kennedy will get on board with the Affordable Care Act. Roberts already is getting gun shy from legitimate criticism that he’s ignored precedent in other cases (which he pledged to NOT IGNORE in his confirmation hearings).

    I wonder if Romney will be able to fire them if he gets elected?

  94. Sandi Saunders | June 26, 2012 at 7:58 pm

    Duh Chuck, if you had bothered to look at the link I offered, you would perhaps have realized I was referring to the supposed Muslim and Nazi connection, exactly as it pertained to the war in North Africa!

    Regardless, it was not possible for the Nazi regime to take over an entire country unless the people of that country were complicit. Nazi’s did not spring from any womb full grown and full of hate. They were molded and fed the hate they carried out and your argument might have more weight if so many of the same folks denying the Christian Germans complicity were not also those so willing to indeed blame and label all muslims as extremists.

    Hate has always had a firm grip on people who call themselves Christian. Some bloggers here have offered proof it still does.

  95. Sandi Saunders | June 26, 2012 at 8:08 pm

    It is just a flat out right wing hate filled lie that President Obama has not “refusing to enforce existing laws” on immigration. The facts just do not support that damnable lie.

    http://thehill.com/homenews/administration/188241-ice-announces-record-breaking-deportations

  96. pammala | June 26, 2012 at 10:39 pm

    DHS Ripped After High Court Ruling

    http://www.foxnews.com/us/2012/06/26/business-as-usual-for-homeland-security-after-supreme-court-ruling-in-arizona/

    “Anyone that is determined to be a low-level threat is subject to being released back into the general population since ICE does not view them as criminals,” one DHS agent told FoxNews.com. “It saddened me to see that ICE is choosing to operate under a ‘business as usual’ mind set rather than seeing how they can work with Arizona to accomplish the goals that they both share.”
    What DHS considers “discretion” in choosing which illegal immigrants to potentially deport is tantamount to a refusal to enforce the law, according to a contingent of Arizona lawmakers, who accused the Obama administration of “declaring war against Arizona” in a letter to ICE chief John Morton.
    “Rather than work cooperatively with the states, as federalism requires, the administration unwisely decided to unilaterally and abruptly terminate multiple agreements under a program that fostered federal-state cooperation in tackling a very difficult public safety threat to Americans, reads the letter, from GOP Reps. Paul Gosar, Dave Schweikert and Trent Franks.

    Read more: http://www.foxnews.com/us/2012/06/26/business-as-usual-for-homeland-security-after-supreme-court-ruling-in-arizona/#ixzz1yxQerf5t

    he cares NOTHING about protecting this country, his involvement in the Fast & Furious game is obvious and illegal..crook bastard 0bammy… he hates this country. he wants to change it fundamentally, because he has no respect for our Founding Fathers nor our Constitution, nor what we all stand for, freedom. And, he has no respect for any of you.

    Notice I only capitalize on what I think is important, certainly not the marxist sicko in office.

  97. Dan Casey | June 27, 2012 at 12:06 am

    pammalala,

    Very proficient cutting and pasting there. The tragedy is that you’re unable to comprehend what you want us to read.

  98. Bob | June 27, 2012 at 12:14 am

    “Christians” like Obama hate Jews. He’s been throwing our allie under the bus for 3 1/2 years! Rev Wright still runs strong in this one!!!!!!!!!

  99. dave | June 27, 2012 at 2:33 am

    #98. In the words of Ronald Reagan “bob, there you go again” Quoting talking points from the Rash Limpballs show will not win you msany arguments in this world, Bob-o!

  100. gdad | June 27, 2012 at 8:44 am

    #98 Oh please, Bob. You really haven’t a clue about Christian oppression of Jews over the centuries? Of course given what you consider great music, I guess I shouldn’t be surprised.

  101. Bob | June 27, 2012 at 9:47 am

    First, his name is Rush Limbaugh. Second, I don’t listen to him at all anymore, but probably agree with him on many issues. Third, you don’t pay attention to Obama’s care less attitude towards Israel dave, you’re just a wandering blind democrat sheep. Baaaa Baaaa

  102. Kristen | June 27, 2012 at 10:22 am

    “…his involvement in the Fast & Furious game is obvious and illegal…”

    Weird…even that frothing crook Issa can’t make this case, and admits it. Perhaps you know something he doesn’t. By all means, share.

    And Bob…we’ll call Thrush whatever we care to. !!!!!!!!!

    And today, Obama is still up nationally and up in the major battleground states.And this is all before Rmoney has had the chance to address his total lack of anything resembling a coherent position, on any topic, in a debate forum. It can only get better.

  103. dave | June 27, 2012 at 11:46 am

    @101

    So Bob. Which one of these Obama policies and “attitudes” towards Isreal
    would you and the Mittster change and “do the opposite” as Mitt says he woul;d. Talk about ignoring the truth!

    http://www.haaretz.com/opinion/romney-we-want-more-of-obama-s-positions-on-israel-not-less.premium-1.444392

  104. Bob | June 27, 2012 at 12:22 pm

    Kristen. Seriously, are your only news sources KOS, MoveOn and HuffPo? Name calling is fine Kristen, I have no desire to “protect” Rush’s name, but he often does make very good points. He’s just an easy scapegoat for a clueless liberal when they don’t have an answer. Berate Rush, and you get high fives from all your buddies.

    Barack Obama is a poor president. That about sums it up for me.

  105. Kristen | June 27, 2012 at 12:47 pm

    No Bob, he doesn’t often make good points. And I got those numbers off of Real Clear Politics.

  106. Shrillary | June 27, 2012 at 3:38 pm

    #98 Bob posted, “He’s been throwing our allie under the bus for 3 1/2 years!”

    OMG!! Is “allie” dead” ? How old was she when she was thrown under the bus?

  107. Contrasuzie | June 27, 2012 at 5:21 pm

    “Bob says:

    First, his name is Rush Limbaugh.”

    You can call him Rush Limbaugh, or you can call him Rusty Sharpe, or you can call him Rusty Limpballs, but whatever you do, DO NOT call him late for supper.

  108. dave | June 27, 2012 at 5:39 pm

    The real motivation for the Issa witch hunt and the trumped up contempt
    charges against Eric Holder are made clear by the link below. It has been entirely an operation pushed by the NRA based on their paranoid nconspiracy theory that it was all a secret plot to take away gun rights.

    http://nraila.org/media/7733622/cc-letter-to-issa.pdf

  109. Bill Perdue | June 27, 2012 at 7:20 pm

    Uphold but punt the mandate because no penalty/tax has been actually paid.

    6-3

    Majority:
    Roberts,Breyer, Sotomayor, Ginsburg,Kagan,Kennedy

    Minority: Alito, Scalia, Thomas

    BTW – insurance companies would not go into a “death spiral” if the mandate is punted or struck. An annual open enrollment period would mitigate adverse selection plus the subsidies would incentive participation – just like large employer plans where the employer contributes toward the premium.

  110. Contrasuzie | June 28, 2012 at 12:43 am

    “pammala says:
    Notice I only capitalize on what I think is important…”

    I notice you don’t capitalize your own name.

  111. Bob | June 28, 2012 at 12:55 am

    Contrasuzie. You do realize Rush has lost quite a bit of weight. Being from the party of hate, I realize your need to throw names out.

    Of course I throw some out at times. Obama is incompetent is just a fact, not name calling.

  112. Art Hill | June 28, 2012 at 1:13 am

    Whichever way it goes, they’ll be a lot of pissed-off Americans tomorrow. Bon chance, mes amis.

  113. gdad | June 28, 2012 at 9:03 am

    #111 Rash has hat yo-yo weight thing going on, although he has been slimmer as of late.

    We have fun talking nasty about Rash because A) he’s a turd, and B) a certain pompous windbag troll on this blog who claims to worship him also is highly critical of folks who are drug-addicted, overweight, and who can’t maintain a constant personal relationship — all of which fit Rash at one time or another.

  114. Shrillary | June 28, 2012 at 9:26 am

    Wow – Rush L lost weight? Did his fat head fall off?

  115. pammala | June 28, 2012 at 9:35 am

    GEE WONDER HOW MUCH COCAINE BAMMY USED, DOES HE STILL USE IT, HOW COULD WE KNOW, WE CANT EVEN SEE HIS SO-CALLED COLLEGE GRADES…

  116. Dan Casey | June 28, 2012 at 9:49 am

    pammalalala,

    Cocaine, back when the president supposedly used it, was still very much a frat boy phenom that was most popular in the upper classes. For those reasons it’s safe to assume that however much Obama used, GWB used at least an order of magnitude more.

  117. old blue | June 28, 2012 at 3:14 pm

    Let me see if I have this right. Obamacare is an unprecedented attack on liberty, but the following things aren’t:

    Domestic spying, including e-mail interception, warrantless wiretaps, etc.
    Patriot Act
    Torture
    TSA

    This must be a new definition of liberty that I am unfamiliar with.

  118. Bob | June 28, 2012 at 10:08 pm

    Domestic spying, including e-mail interception, warrantless wiretaps, etc. – You got something to hide? I don’t. Again, something Obama has been doing to average American citizens, NOT muslim terrorist!

    Patriot Act – Being abused by Barack Hussein Obama

    Torture – Would you rather be water boarded ( and have the USA obtain valuable information) or be blown up by a drone? Obama does blow people up with drones. Surely you know this? Rachel Maddow may not report it, but it’s happening.

    TSA – What can I say. 3 1/2 years and YOUR president has been to busy shooting hoops, playing golf, fund raising, and honing his class warfare bs.

    Old Blue. Nice Ford F-159 I had in high school.

    Can’t wait to work out at The Roanoke Athletic Club tomorrow!!

  119. gdad | June 29, 2012 at 2:07 pm

    #15 The more relevant question is how much meth YOU’VE been using, pammie.

  120. Shrillary | June 29, 2012 at 3:54 pm

    Bob – please direct me to the links to bolster your argument. Without FACTS it is simply hot air venting.

  121. Bob | June 30, 2012 at 1:21 am

    The facts are out there, Do your own **** homework you weak minded fool!

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Saturday, May 18, 2013

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    Metro Columnist Dan Casey knows a little bit about a lot of things but not a heck of a lot about most things. That doesn't keep him from writing about them, however. So keep him honest!

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