Is Rep. Eric Cantor more vulnerable than anyone realizes?
House Majority Leader Eric Cantor, R-Richmond
You could fill plenty of Roanoke Civic Center coliseums with the number of pundits who think my old pal Dave “Mudcat” Saunders is fighting a lost cause working as a campaign strategist for Richmond lawyer and retired Army colonel Wayne Powell.
Powell’s the latest in a long line of Democrats who have tried to unseat Republican Rep. Eric Cantor, who as House Majority Leader is one of the most powerful people in Washington.
The problem for Powell is, not a one of previous challengers has ever come close. And because of redistricting, the 7th Congressional District is more Republican now than ever.
But a new poll out today highlights what may be a surprising vulnerability for the veteran congressman among 7th District voters: Women’s health issues, something that’s been in the news a lot lately here in Virginia.
From Think Progress:
Voters say they would support a pro-choice candidate over a candidate who is pro-life by an unexpectedly large margin, 68 percent to 23 percent. The finding comes after intense media coverage of efforts by state Republicans to mandate transvaginal ultrasounds prior to obtaining an abortion, a procedure described by critics as “state-sponsored rape.” The resulting backlash from women in Virginia forced Governor Bob McDonnell (R) and his allies at the statehouse to moderate their efforts.
Eric Cantor has a 100% rating from the National Right To Life Committee.
Moreover, with regard to Cantor’s reluctance to compromise with the opposing party:
Fifty nine percent of voters say they would support a candidate who works with President Obama some of the time compared to just 32 percent of respondents who say they would vote for the candidate who opposes virtually everything proposed by the White House, as Cantor and the rest of the GOP have insisted upon for much of Obama’s first term.
June 26, 2012 - 4:18 PM
Is Rep. Eric Cantor more vulnerable than anyone realizes?
Answer: NO
From the “thinkprogress” web site.
“ThinkProgress was voted “Best Liberal Blog” in the 2006 Weblog Awards and chosen as an Official Honoree in the 2009 and 2012 Webby awards”
nuff said!
and #3, your point being…???
Bob, I am well aware that even the simplest grasp of reality is beyond you, but merely being biased is not the same as being dishonest, wrong or lying. That is a whole ‘nother choice. Think Progress is not popular because it is biased, it is popular because they work hard to bring us the issues and news items we want to see. Your disdain is a plus.
The poll referenced was “from from Harrison Hickman”, not Think Progress.
You are looking more desperate (and pitiful) by the post.
http://hickmananalytics.com/contactkeypersonnel1.htm
Think Progress is without a doubt biased. So what?
Bob, you’re biased, too. Does that mean you’re always incorrect?
ouhhhhh…. name calling, I’ve struck a nerve.
#4 Sandi, you make my point
“it is popular because they work hard to bring us the issues and news items we want to see.”
Re: Comment by Bob — June 26, 2012 @ 7:01 pm
Paraphrased: “We don’t like being confused with the facts.”
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http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/7965607
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The truly false consensus effect: an ineradicable and egocentric bias in social perception.
Krueger J, Clement RW.
Source
Department of Psychology, Brown University, Providence, Rhode Island 02912.
Erratum in
J Pers Soc Psychol 1995 Apr;68(4):579.
Abstract
Consensus bias is the overuse of self-related knowledge in estimating the prevalence of attributes in a population. The bias seems statistically appropriate (Dawes, 1989), but according to the egocentrism hypothesis, it merely mimics normative inductive reasoning. In Experiment 1, Ss made population estimates for agreement with each of 40 personality inventory statements. Even Ss who had been educated about the consensus bias, or had received feedback about actual consensus, or both showed the bias. In Experiment 2, Ss attributed bias to another person, but their own consensus estimates were more affected by their own response to the item than by the other person’s response. In Experiment 3, there was bias even in the presence of unanimous information from 20 randomly chosen others. In all 3 experiments, Ss continued to show consensus bias despite the availability of other statistical information.
**
a new poll out today highlights what may be a surprising vulnerability for the veteran congressman among 7th District voters: Women’s health issues, something that’s been in the news a lot lately here in Virginia.
I don’t know, it’s like the whitewash of 2010 never happened for you people. Or the stunning Scott Walker vote. Name one thing that’s gotten better for 0bama since then. Answer: Nothing. It’s all gotten worse. You libs are starting to believe your own phony narrative that your manufactured and false notion of “women’s issues” (abortion, birth control) are front-and-center instead of the many 0bama disasters.
Cantor wins in a walk. As does Romney. As does Allen.
Shall I be Bob 1 or Bob 2. Democrats are confused enough of what a constitution is, let’s not confuse them more!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
My sig !!!!!!!!!!
Gas prices Suzie,,,that was your own mantra months ago.
or do you think we are brain dead too..
oh ,,and Bin Laden is dead and GM is still alive.
Bob@#10
That is the question posed every day to marvelous Mitt, the schizo. In his case it’s shall I be Mitt 1 or Mitt 2 or Mitt 3 or Mitt 4 and so on ad infinitum. Good old Mitt has been on so many diffrent sides of so many different issues that he comes across almost as confused as you do It has become a real problem for him to make a statement about anything because by the next day there will always be someone pointing out that he said something diffrent last week or last month or last year or ten minutes ago. That’s the resson why his handlers have him on such a tight rein and why he no longer makes any specdific proposals about anything. As one of his backers said about his immigration speech to Latinos last week
“He made a generally specific speech.”
Cantor will be reelected in his heavily gerrymandered district. But I hope they make him spend a ton of money and spend a lot of time making a run for it. He’llk still be back in the House. But no matter what, you can’t fix stupid.
#8 Dave Hicks. Nice research on Consensus bias. It should be pointed out that Liberals do it too. I come here because I’m left biased. I don’t have to deal with cognitive dissonance on this blog.
In all of my arguing and discussion, I have never changed a Republican’s mind on any issue and they have never succeeded in changing mine. Have you ever seen an opinion changed on here? heheh
Obama needs to concentrate on the undecided voters as most of us will vote party line because of our bias.
Carrying the water to defeat. Interesting. Ole glorious Mudcat doesn’t ever tells us what/who/why his Col. Powell is (or maybe that’s Dan’s deal), just that Cantor is the boogy man. It’s old. That type of strate-gery isn’t going to win an election no matter how much MSNBC coverage you garner. I haven’t even seen a picture of this Col. Powell. All I know is a public foul-mouthed insider is at the helm of his election. Not helping the Colonel.
I am not a fan of Cantor, but I am willing to bet he wins by at least 10 points.
I predict Cantor gets into big trouble when some pictures of him and his favorite big money billionaire sugar-daddy contributor Adelson emerge depicting them sitting by the pool at the Venetian staring at the topless women!
http://govegas.about.com/od/lasvegashotels/tp/toplesstop.htm
Tao Beach at the Venetian is also a place for topless sunbathing on the Las Vegas strip. They now offer Sunset Sundays, which is essentially an early start to the evening at the pool. Imagine a hip nightclub coming to life as a Las Vegas pool that allows topless sun tanning.
Eric Cantor is a snake. Loyal to himself and his bank accounts.
In April the republicans learned that about him:
WASHINGTON — “By definition, the majority leader of the House has the majority of incumbents to protect in an election. So it came as something of a shock when House Republicans learned that a political action committee affiliated with Representative Eric Cantor of Virginia, who currently holds that leadership slot, had donated $25,000 to a group devoted solely to taking out incumbents.”
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/04/10/us/politics/cantors-connection-to-a-house-republicans-loss-in-helping-to-undo-a-republican-cantor-has-some-explaining-to-do.html
Hmmm, I wonder if Boehner sleeps with one eye open…
Re: Comment by Newman — June 27, 2012 @ 7:28 am
#8 Dave Hicks. Nice research on Consensus bias. It should be pointed out that Liberals do it too.
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Absolutely!
FWIIW, there is other research that seem to establish / suggest that the stronger and/or more extreme that position held by an individual, the stronger the Consensus bias.
In addition, group dynamics studies suggest that Consensus bias is also reinforced by group behavior (has a synergistic role in group behavior), even where self-selection does not come into play (i.e., as in “I don’t have to deal with cognitive dissonance [with ‘x’ group,therefore….”) —
e.g.:
A smallish group of folk are selected with opinions more or less informatively distributed along a bell-shaped curve. The issue doesn’t need to be highly charged (e.g., politics, religion, music, food, etc).
As the conversation develops the folk in the two extreme stanines of the group will dominate the conversation. The second and eighth stanines will join in in some degree. The third through seventh stanines typically do not get very involved in the debate.
Now what is very interesting is that Consensus bias kicks in and both ends of the distribution assume that the middle four stanines (the vast majority) agreed with their own extreme position — “Only 11% – 12% of the folk disagreed with me. Therefore the super-majority agreed with me.”
Hence, (as we have heard here) the “Everyone I know agrees….”
There is also serious research among folk who do opinion polling on how to minimize error introduced by the “hang-ups” etc. They are realizing that the old saw “If they don’t care enough to answer my questions, then they don’t care enough to vote” introduces too much error. I, for one, haven’t missed a Congressional (hence Senatorial or Presidential) election in 50 years. OTOH, I routinely hang up on polls etc. You?
Dave Hicks – In psychology this consensus response was called Groupthink. It was supposed that the Bay of Pigs fiasco was the result of Groupthink.
A small like minded group come to a consensus based on erroneous information, agreeing upon the faulty information and then proceeding forward.
Here’s a link
http://www.psysr.org/about/pubs_resources/groupthink%20overview.htm
@18
He may not sleep with one eye open but I bet he’s very careful about bending over whenevr Cantor is around.
Re: Comment by Shrillary — June 27, 2012 @ 5:21 pm
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Close but different.
As you say, groupethink is “A small like minded group come to a consensus based on erroneous information, agreeing upon the faulty information and then proceeding forward.” That is rather like the coffee klatsch of Rants & Raves (w/lies).
What I am talking about has been researched in diversely composed groups and in the face of the availability of valid statistical and other information that is counter to the small group’s (or individual’s) erroneous information. That is rather like the the failure of Rants & Raves (w/lies) to function productively on a diverse blog.
To be taken down because of the vagina issue… That would be Epic Justice.