Ladies only: Which poll prognosticator would you rather choose?
Nate Silver, of Five Thirty Eight Blog (left) and Dean Chambers, of UnskewedPolls.com
Uusally we manage to steer clear of sex here on the blog, and focus on more important matters such as politics and religion. But today is a little bit different.
Dean Chambers, the prognosticator of UnskwedPolls.com, has written a riposte on The Examiner.com about the New York Times’ Nate Silver, proprietor of Five Thirty Eight Blog.
Chambers more or less called out Silver for being a girly-man who is unworthy of the attention of readers regarding predictions about the presidential election. Plus his voice is squeaky high and effeminate, Chambers wrote.
Of course, Chamber is predicting a runaway Romney victory on Nov. 6, at least in the Electoral College. And Silver is predicting the opposite. Obama’s gonna take the election big in the Electoral College, Silver says.
Putting aside their political prognostications for just a minute, I would like to ask the women on this blog a purely theoretical questions: which man they would choose, from the two guys above, if you were stuck forever on a desert island with them?
Would it be the manly guy on the right, or the so-called (perhaps unfairly) “girly man” on the the left? Be honest, and judge your responses only on the photos.
October 27, 2012 - 10:36 PM
Neither. Neither without a second thought.
Sorry Kristen, but you don’t get to vote neither. Pick one, purely on the pix. Who is it? Silver or Chambers?
Dan, Silver’s on the right.
Nate Silver is on the right, not left. He also knows his stuff.
The guy on the left…
If we were stuck on a desert island, he would be less likely to die as quickly and leave me all alone. Besides, he can lose the weight but the guy on the right sounds like an a$$hole and that is unlikely to change…
Just my thought.
Dan, non-voting male here to ask: isn’t the caption wrong? Silver is on the right.
You swapped the descriptions – Nate Silver is the guy on the right.
The guy on the right looks like the girly man lib to me. As Romney’s poll numbers increase, the little bedwetter Nate Silver has 0bummer’s advantage widening. Go figure. Plus he missed the avalanche of 2010 by such a wide margin. So far, all he’s done is call the 2008 election for 0bama. Big whoop.
Isn’t that Nate Silver on the right and Chambers on the left?
Your caption under the picture is wrong, Dan. Chambers is on the left.
Why Nate Silver of course, because this is purely theoretical you’re alllowed to be shallow.
Nate of course. He’s likely to live longer on a desert island being healthier and all. He could probably live off fish and wild fruit. The other guy would die from lack of whoppers, fries and 16 oz soft drinks.
Aw, shucks, folks. I was playing a little pre-Halloween trick on you — I deliberately reversed the names in the caption.
You’re all sharp, though.
If you hadn’t shown the same picture of Dean Chambers recently, I wouldn’t have know who’s who.
Im with Silver as well, but I had no idea what he looks like. He’s younger than I had imagined.
Chamber’s would be blaming Obama for us being stuck on the island and I’ve have to take a coconut and bash his head in, so he wouldn’t be on the island with me for long.
If you’re on a desert island with Chambers, he’d mow you into the sand trying to beat you out for the last coconut.
Just noticed my typo, that should be I’d not I’ve. LOL Kristen.
Jeez, This tells you how dumb Dan thinks women are. He must think we’re all like the ones he associates with.
Looks like Dan suckered a few libbie women, though. Nice going, Lynda K. LOL.
I guess in some places, predicting a Republican pick-up of seven seats in the Senate in 2010 when the final outcome was a pick-up of six seats, and predicting a Republican pick-up of 55 in the House, when the final outcome was a pick0up of 63 is missing the final outcome by a “wide margin.”
But in this universe, that’s pretty damn close.
“I guess in some places, predicting a Republican pick-up of seven seats in the Senate in 2010 when the final outcome was a pick-up of six seats, and predicting a Republican pick-up of 55 in the House, when the final outcome was a pick0up of 63 is missing the final outcome by a “wide margin.”
–Comment by Dan Radmacher
Radmacher is correct, of course. There were something like 468 congressional elections (House + Senate) in 2010; Silver called roughly 99.98 percent of them correctly, and Suzie repeatedly has whined here that he “blew” it in 2010. LOL
Silver’s system has been proven accurate, no matter whether it was a R victory or a D victory he was predicting. No individual polling agency even comes close and Silver’s adjustments have a scientific basis in the previous accuracy of the poll and other factors. His use of multiple polls over time is a brilliant form of meta-poll which is of course inherently better than smaller single polls due to a larger sampling size.
It would be like asking 10x as many people 10 different questions, of course a larger sampling is more accurate than a smaller one.
And like all the right wing hand waivers Suzie doesn’t like him because he is not predicting a result she likes. Her anti-gay bigotry against him is just symptomatic of her greater evil.
and predicting a Republican pick-up of 55 in the House, when the final outcome was a pick0up of 63 is missing the final outcome by a “wide margin.”
Nice try, Rad. But the nerd picked a 53 seat gain as late as Oct 28, not 55. Maybe in your profession, being off by 20% in reporting the truth is considered good, but not in polling.
But I will hand it to silver. The day before the 2008 election, he went out on a limb and predicted an 0bama win. That’s his lone accomplishment.
“Nice try, Rad. But the nerd picked a 53 seat gain as late as Oct 28, not 55. Maybe in your profession, being off by 20% in reporting the truth is considered good, but not in polling.”
Suze, Silver’s 2010 House prediction was the result of analyzing 435 separate elections. If he got all but 12 right (in the House) that means his analysis was 97.24 percent correct. That’s a good grade. Did you score any better in any of your college-engineering courses?
he got all but 12 right (in the House) that means his analysis was 97.24 percent correct
Oh, did he go out on a limb and pick Bob Goodlatte? Considering 90% of the seats are locks, no his failure isn’t anything to crow about.
Silver is non-partisan and scientific”
Right. He just finished a book on man-made global warming, something he doesn’t know beans about. Very similiar to Paul Krugman writing about the Iraqi conflict. These are leftwing hacks. Otherwise, they wouldn’t be working for the NYT. Even their token ‘conservative’ is David Brooks is a ridiculous lib who predicted 0bama would govern from the center and go down as one of the great presidents.
Or maybe the NYT only hires people who are wrong.
Nate Silver really eats into Suzie. It’s funny to watch!
The ONLY reason the rest of us bring him up is that he has a very admirable track record in predicting presidential elections. Those predictions are always fluid, because they’re based on averages of polls but also factor in the reliability of the pollster, and economic data and other factors.
If he was predicting a 74 percent chance of a Romney win Nov. 6, she’d be singing his praises right here, and the rest of us wouldn’t take issue with that because we know and admire his track record.
But because he suggests the election’s gonna go for Obama, it’s driving Suze bonkers and she must trash him every chance she gets. It’s quite hilarious.
Is Suzie a middle-school teacher in Pasco County, Fla.?
Is Suzie a middle-school teacher in Pasco County, Fla.?
I don’t see that that teacher did anything to be dismissed. You can’t even do good-natured insulting to build rapport? When I think back, the teachers who needled people were some of my favorites. The liberal PC environment that has overtaken the schools has taken the humor and life out of everything. Everybody has to conform to nothingness to please the state.
The ONLY reason the rest of us bring him up is that he has a very admirable track record in predicting presidential elections.
Yep. He’s 1 for 1. Picked 0bama the day before the election in 2008. Impressive.
Re: Comment by Dan Casey — October 28, 2012 @ 1:32 pm
Mystery solved?
Could be.
Yeah right, telling students how ugly and stupid they are is a great way to build rapport. Sarcasm font off now.
Suzie, I truly am sorry that you’ve had/have such a miserable life. You make that point so obvious.
#27: “…did he go out on a limb and pick Bob Goodlatte?”
I must admit, I once went out on a limb in believing Goodlatte’s promise to term limit himself after 12 years. That was in 1994, so I’ve been chagrined by his lie for six years now, or 1/3 his time in Congress, and he’s still hungry for more!
The most difficult part now is trying to understand why he’ll end healthcare reform for us but won’t include himself and his family(continuing to enjoy complete government provided healthcare), since that seems like something that corrupt Chinese leaders would do. I’m also wondering why he won’t answer whether his no tax pledge to Grover Norquist is any more sincere than his term limit pledge to his employers.
I guess the only explanation that really makes sense is that Goodlatte’s always sought to be a career poltician instead of a bootstrapping private sector job creator; a guy whose life is underwritten by the taxpayers, and who’ll say anything to maintain that sweet ride. In that respect, his support for Paul Ryan and George Allen becomes understandable.
Very interesting comment by Silver on Ohio: http://tinyurl.com/9vv2dvo
He points out that Obama is leading Romney by an average of 2.3% (according to Real Clear Politics, slightly more according to other averages) in the Ohio polls. He then goes through all recent examples when there were at least three polls in a state ten days before an election. He shows that with one exception, these polls accurately predicted the winner in every case in which the winner was ahead by at least 1.5 points.
**
October 27, 2012, 5:16 pm
Oct. 26: State Poll Averages Usually Call Election Right
By NATE SILVER
The FiveThirtyEight forecast model has found the past several days of battleground state polling to be reasonably strong for Barack Obama, with his chances of winning the Electoral College increasing as a result. The intuition behind this ought to be very simple: Mr. Obama is maintaining leads in the polls in Ohio and other states that are sufficient for him to win 270 electoral votes.
SNIP [a bunch snipped]
That analysis implies that a lead of 2.4 percent in the polling average (Mr. Obama’s current edge in Ohio in the FiveThirtyEight model) would translate to a win in the state 82 percent of the time. This percentage is similar to, but slightly higher than, the FiveThirtyEight forecast, which gave Mr. Obama a 76 percent chance of winning Ohio as of Friday.
It is important to emphasize that this analysis covers cases in which there were at least three distinct polling firms active in a state; you will find more frequent misses in cases where there were just one or two polls.
In Ohio, however, there are not just three polls: roughly a dozen polling firms, rather, have surveyed the state over the past 10 days.
There are no precedents in the database for a candidate losing with a two- or three-point lead in a state when the polling volume was that rich.
SNIP
**
Right or wrong, this should ruin Suzie’s day.
Stand by for a nonsensical hissy fit from Old Rants & Raves (w/ lies).
OTOH, I’d welcome substantive comments, including and especially those that explain, logically, why Silver might be wrong on this.
I, for one, wonder if there is any Ohio specific data of the sort analyzed, is there a variation when the poll leader 10 days out is a sitting president, etc.
The teacher is (for the moment) employed. That leaves SuzieQ out.
Yeah right, telling students how ugly and stupid they are is a great way to build rapport.
Depends on the relationship. If the teacher is caring and fun-loving most students take it the way it’s meant. There are always going to be a few humorless parents who hear the words second-hand without context, and there will be a few whiners like you and other liberals who go through life looking to be offended.
——-
Suzie, I truly am sorry that you’ve had/have such a miserable life. You make that point so obvious.
You what, dear? Tomorrow I’ll be able to get up when I want, do what I want, go where I want, visit whom I want, and buy what I want. And tomorrow, you will wake up and be obliged to do all the things your unfortunate choices earlier in life have dictated you do.
So one of us might have a miserable life, but it isn’t me.
Silver.
Silver based on the pic.
Silver based on the research.
Silver based on the effort.
Silver based on the level of information.
Silver.
Just like a right winger to bring insults into the game.
Re: Comment by Suzie — October 28, 2012 @ 2:23 pm
With apology to Shakespeare, “The lady doth protest too much, methinks.” And I mean that in the sense of Shakespeare’s day.
[By "protest," Gertrude doesn't mean "object" or "deny"—these meanings postdate Hamlet. The principal meaning of "protest" in Shakespeare's day was "vow" or "declare solemnly," a meaning preserved in our use of "protestation." When we smugly declare that "the lady doth protest too much," we almost always mean that the lady objects so much as to lose credibility. Gertrude says that Player Queen affirms so much as to lose credibility. Her vows are too elaborate, too artful, too insistent. More cynically, the queen may also imply that such vows are silly in the first place, and thus may indirectly defend her own remarriage. -- http://tinyurl.com/edm8y ]
Hence, I am suggesting that Suzie “protests” imply a very high likelihood of suppressed feelings to the contrary of that which she is argued/asserted/etc — i.e., her claims of “the teachers who needled people were some of [her] favorites” suggest she was distraught by being taunted; her claims of beauty suggest her lack thereof was one of the sources of such taunting; her claims of being in the in-crowd suggest that she was an abject outcast; her claims of wealth suggest envy of wealth and like lack thereof; etc.
The more passionate and fervent her declarations/argument/fantasies/etc, the greater likelihood the cause is a suppression of belief for the contrary facts/situations/arguments/etc — and the subsequent confirmation of the (actual) truth.
—————————
Re: Comment by Debbie — October 28, 2012 @ 3:24 pm
I admire you ability to have compassion. You are a better person than I.
Suzie, tomorrow morning and every morning thereafter, when I wake up I’ll be happy and you’ll still be a miserable person. I wouldn’t trade places with you for all the money on earth.
Ten out of 41 comments are from most ill-informed/aka Elly Mae Clampett/Suzie. Let’s see, that would be 24.4% of all comments…seems a little desperate….
I choose Nate Silver – the other guy is more most ill-informed’s type – fat and nasty…like that one’s hero, Rush Limbaugh.
Suzie, tomorrow morning and every morning thereafter, when I wake up I’ll be happy and you’ll still be a miserable person. I wouldn’t trade places with you for all the money on earth.
Boy, Dave H has Debbie pegged. She does indeed protesteth a wee bit too much
“I’m happy. You’re not. I’m happy. You’re not. I’m happy. You’re not”
“You what, dear? Tomorrow I’ll be able to get up when I want, do what I want, go where I want, visit whom I want, and buy what I want. ”
And yet, your sorry attention-grubbing butt will be firmly planted on the interwebz,begging for attention and trying to sell some persona you actually think people will find attractive and enviable.
I think you just got sadder.
There are “ladies” on this blog?
And yet, your sorry attention-grubbing butt will be firmly planted on the interwebz,begging for attention and trying to sell some persona you actually think people will find attractive and enviable.
It just kills these people I am retired and don’t have to work. Just kills ‘em.
“On the Internet, no one knows you’re a dog.”
Unless you constantly act like a bitch.
You’re old, Suzie. My mother is retired too. I don’t begrudge it, I just have a decade or two to go.
Speaking of polls, Obama up 4 and trending in Ohio.
Let’s try that again.
Re: Comment by Suzie — October 28, 2012 @ 7:00 pm
“I’m happy. You’re not. I’m happy. You’re not. I’m happy. You’re not”
———-
Again (with apology to Shakespeare and thanks to John Wilburn) Suzie doth protest too much, methinks. And I mean that in the meaning of “protest” in Shakespeare’s day.
OTOH, maybe Suzie is just trying to convince herself, by that repetition.
To rephrase my comment at 5:28 yesterday, barring unforeseen circumstances, I will wake up happy every morning. Barring an unforeseen miracle, Suzie will wake up miserable and spread that misery to others. The last sentence in my comment from yesterday still stands.