We are using as our weekly yardstick here the Real Clear Politics average. It’s always changing slightly — it looks at the 7 most recent polls. The national snapshot we take is Tuesday at 10 a.m. And it shows Romney barely edging President Obama by three-tenths of 1 percentage point.
The Mittster clearly has the momentum, though his apparent edge is well within the margin of error. The question is, can he hold it?
Romney was actually up by more than a point over Obama in the RCP average on Saturday, following an apparent Romney surge after the first debate.
But the release of two polls Monday showing Obama as the slight favorite (by 1 and 3 points) seem to suggest that his surge is subsiding.
Did the vice-presidential debate, in which vice-president Joe Biden schooled Paul Ryan have anything to do with that? Perhaps.
Is it the truly rotten math in Mitt’s tax cut plan? That’s been getting wider attention in the media since it was revealed that of the “six studies” that prove the Mittster’s plan can work, four were either op-eds or blog posts by some GOP dimwit. And the other two were “studies” commissioned by the Romney campaign.
There’s no question that the big turn in Romney’s favor came after Obama’s lackluster performance in the Oct. 3 presidential debate.
The second one is tonight. Can Obama turn it around? Will the Mittster deliver the coup de grace? Stay tuned.
But in the meantime, put your predictions here.