The Polls! The Polls! — Oct. 30, 2012
• Romney by 0.9 percent
• Could we see a split popular vote-Electoral College outcome?
• And could the carnage from Sandy influence the outcome?
One week out from the election, the Real Clear Politics average of national polls shows Mitt Romney leading by a slight percentage in the national popular vote. However, the closer we draw to the election, the less relevant the popular vote is.
By almost every other yardstick out there, President Obama is leading in the Electoral College — the tally that matters. Barring a big influence on the election by Hurricane Sandy in Pennsylvania and New Jersey, he appears destined for re-election next Tuesday with something like 290 electoral votes.
Over at Five Thirty Eight Blog, prognosticator Nate Silver rates Obama’s chances of re-election at just under 73 percent. That’s because on Friday, 10 days out from the election, Obama seemed to have durable polling-average leads in the 11 of the all-imporant “swing” states, while Romney seemed ahead in only four. Silver has a detailed analysis of how improbable it would be for Romney to overcome this advantage.
If Obama wins re-election while Romney edges him in the national popular vote, it would mark a reversal of what happened in 2000, when the Democratic nominee, Al Gore, pulled about 500,000 more votes nationally than Republican George W. Bush. Bush won the Electoral College and the White House with a U.S. Supreme Court ruling that named Bush the winner in Florida.
And rather than put to rest a lot of the incredibly partisan crap we’ve seen, it would probably make the nation even more hyper partisan, as Republicans hurl cries that deny the president’s legitimacy and dig their heels in even harder.
At that point, the interesting thing will be “fiscal cliff” this nation is facing as a result of the failure of the White House and Congressional Republicans to reach a compromise on spending and taxes in 2011.
Recall, the White House and Democrats were willing to compromise in those negotiations, with most of the deficit reductions managed via cuts in spending and a small proportion of them handled via tax increases on the wealthy.
But the Republicans said, “No way!” they would only agree to spending cuts. It was their way or the highway. That amounted to economic treason, with them holding the nation’s economy and credit rating hostage.
If the “automatic” cuts are instituted, it will certainly throw this country into another recession, if not a depression. The question is, is that the outcome the Republicans truly want?
For that reason, it’ll be interesting to watch the future votes of western Virginia’s members of Congress:” Reps. Bob Goodlatte, R- Roanoke County; Morgan Griffith, R-Salem; and Robert Hurt, R-Pittsylvania.
If Obama wins, will they and the other GOP members of Congress follow their leaders over that fiscal cliff? Or will they pull back at the edge of it in a last-second display of sanity?
And if they go over, will it be out of spite, for losing the election? I for one, hope that doesn’t happen. But it appears more and more likely that the House has a Jonestown-style leadership that’s willing to take the whole country down if they don’t get want.
October 30, 2012 - 11:13 AM
@ Dan C: “as Republicans hurl cries that deny the president’s legitimacy and dig their heels in even harder…”
Which would make it different from the last four years exactly how? How much harder could they dig in their heels? How much more vociferously could they deny the president’s legitimacy? You’ve got lunatics on this blog suggesting Obama was programmed from birth to become president so he could ruin the nation. Is it really going to get worse than that?
I’m not disagreeing with your analysis in the least, though. Which is why it’s incredibly important for everyone who thinks this through to vote against every Republican possible. The party has gone insane, and the only way to fix that, I fear, is to send them packing for a generation.
One good thing is that the Democrats will have more leverage going into the fiscal cliff situation. They can put forward bills extending tax cuts to all but the very wealthy. They can put forward a credible, balanced deficit-reduction plan. And maybe, just maybe, there will be enough relatively sane Republicans left in the House to cobble together a minority to pass those measures, considering the absolute disaster that is the alternative. The only power congressional Republicans will have is to stop bills. But the nation is on a preset course (that they put us on, do not forget) that will lead to economic disaster without positive action. They can either go along with that positive action, or they can accept the blame for the disaster that follows.
Power will be out in parts of Philly for 7-10 days from what I read. Is that going to hurt Dem turnout?
Dan R,
The one thing they can do, after a popular vote-electoral college split that denies Romney the White House, is pull the nation over that fiscal cliff. That’ll be the test of whether they’re Jim Jones insane or not. Frankly I don’t think John Boehner will go for that, but I wonder about Eric Cantor, and whether Boehner will even lead the House Republicans in the next term (assuming they keep their majority, which I expect they will do).
What I hope, though, is that Goodlatte, Griffith and Hurt would not go along with that. We’ll see.
The fact that we even have to wonder whether a Republican House would let America go over the fiscal cliff is what’s frightening.
Why the American can’t see how radical, dangerous and insane the Republican Party has become is a mystery — but I blame the press (easier to do now that I’m out of it). The media has got to abandon the “he said, she said” style of reporting that made the debt ceiling fiasco look like a simple disagreement between the parties when it was nothing less than the Republican Party holding the entire national and global economic system hostage to a policy dispute. Never before had one party threatened to withhold approval of a debt ceiling increase, refusing to allow the United States to repay its obligations, unless 100 percent of its demands were met.
That reckless and irresponsible action continues to reverberate throughout the economy. It resulted in the historic downgrading of our credit rating, which added billions to the cost of borrowing. It knocked the recovery, which was starting to pick up steam, back and nearly plunged us back into recession.
The same with the “fiscal cliff” crisis. That isn’t a dispute between the two parties, it’s a result of the fact that Republicans refuse to give an inch on revenue. They want a debt reduction agreement based solely on cuts, and solely on cuts to non-defense spending. Their stubbornness on that issue is what led to the sequestration agreement, and what resulted in the failure of the supercommittee that will allow the sequesters to kick in.
No informed, thinking American should reward that kind of dangerous ideological brinksmanship by voting for any Republican member of Congress. They are all complicit. If the media were doing their job, the nation would know that.
“The same with the “fiscal cliff” crisis. That isn’t a dispute between the two parties, it’s a result of the fact that Republicans refuse to give an inch on revenue. They want a debt reduction agreement based solely on cuts, and solely on cuts to non-defense spending. Their stubbornness on that issue is what led to the sequestration agreement, and what resulted in the failure of the supercommittee that will allow the sequesters to kick in.”
–Comment by Dan R.
Dan R.,
I don’t disagree with you, but you’re still soft-peddling this even though you’re out of the media now. Don’t get bogged down with “stubborness” and jargon like “sequestration” and “failure of the super committee.”
It’s economic treason.
If Obama came out and announced the Earth was round, the press would schedule time for a “Republican rebuttal” and then pretend the two statements were equally legitimate.
I’m with you DanC, only I’d just call it plain treason. Trying to bring down your country by creating fiscal chaos is a lot less benign than selling a few weaponry secrets or whatever. Plus, they’re working from the inside…they’ve become the moles they’re always screaming about.
Informed, thinking Americans are being outnumbered. Have you BEEN to walmart lately? The right wing narrative, simple, full of lies and easy to digest has taken root in this nation to a dangerous and destructive level. Fscts have become irrelevant, science, arithmetic and common sense are right on their heels. I am afraid the damage will need to become a reality before some people see what they signed up for is not what they will get.
Why any sane person would play into the hands of the Suzie, pammala, Frank, matt, pistol pete, Leon crowd is literally mind boggling. Where the hell do they propose their place will be in a Plutocracy? Really?
I would hope if Obama wins reelection, the republicans will call a truce and end their adolescent, tug-of-war behavior. Their main agenda, in the last four years of digging in their heels, was to prevent Obama from being re-elected. Once he’s there for his final four, they have no reason not to make some compromises.
If they continue on this blatantly detrimental path then I can only believe that it is exactly as former Colin Powell Chief of Staff, Col Lawrence Wilkerson has said, “Let me just be candid. My party is full of racists. And the real reason a considerable portion of my party wants President Obama out of the White House has nothing to do with the content of his character, nothing to do with his competence as commander in chief and president, and everything to do with the color of his skin. And that’s despicable.”
It appears this Ohio Romney Campaign event masquerading as a Hurricane Relief gathering will backfire badly on Mitt in the campaign’s final days.
Have you boys seen this?
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/
Outstanding Red Team outstanding. Dan R you are so wrong don’t have the time or the energy to explain why. The new Democratic Party is what is destroying this country. My family was all democrats until the big Government expansion, New Deal. How sad we have gotten so far away from the Constitution. I have a good friend whose youngest daughter just graduated from a very good private school in Eastern Virginia. She and I were discussing politics the other day and she, much to her parent’s disappointment, is supporting the President. She would like to see our country more like Europe where and I quote “there are less really poor and less really rich” in other words progressive taxation which takes from the haves and gives to the have not’s. While I dearly love my friend’s daughter and respect her opinion what is sad is that she grew up in a very affluent household because both her parents worked there tails off to build successful careers. She really does not have a clue what she is supporting. I gave her the Republican position that a growing economy gives all an opportunity, and the business of this country is business and we need a pro business administration.
Exactly Kristen, the right wing machine has cowed the media into respecting their narrative no matter how devoid of reality it is and the press goes along. They try to browbeat Dan here daily for the same purpose. That we catch their lies and call them out is what the MSM SHOULD be doing! They have been complicit, even as they have been dragged through the muck by the right wing as being the problem and the bad guys. What a messed up world when bullies rule, or want to.
This thread should be entitled “The Partisans, the Partisans” instead of the “The Polls…”
“And rather than put to rest a lot of the incredibly partisan crap we’ve seen, it would probably make the nation even more hyper partisan, as Republicans hurl cries that deny the president’s legitimacy and dig their heels in even harder.”
And how exactly will that be different than what the liberals did and have been doing since 2000? How many times have we heard about how Bush stole the election? Or that it was an illegitimate presidency? Or that a partisan Supreme Court chose a president rather than allowing the electorate to be heard? Seems like you guys are just afraid that you might have to eat crow on all those arguments you’ve used for so long.
I’m still amazed how you guys can just ignore the fact that Bush faced the same obstacles. Despite this, every thing that went wrong in his presidency was deemed by you to be his fault. Now, with Obama, a president whose party controlled both houses of Congress for the first two years, no failures of his presidency are his fault? It’s amazing. Even now, the Dems control the White House and the Senate, but because the Republicans control one house, the are still responsible, not only for everything that has happened so far but also for all the bad things that might happen in the future. I realize it is a convenient way to explain away failure, but maybe the democratic party wouldn’t be perceived as being so impotent if its members didn’t manifest such an amazingly strong external locus of control.
If Obama does win the EC but loses the popular vote, the only thing I think we can predict with certainty is that we won’t hear liberals whining about how the electoral college is outdated and should be eliminated like they did back in 2000. No, I’m sure at that point the democrats will love the electoral college. However, what I will say is, that if you do hear that Obama’s assumed second term is illegitimate, or that he stole the election, you should remember that you reap what you sow.
Good point, Dan C. I didn’t want to steal the phrase from you, though. You should copyright it!
From your “hurricane campaign victory relief event” link above:
“A report just came in that Romney just did a photo opp filling relief boxes.”
Given the Romney/Ryan history with photo-ops, do we know the boxes hadn’t already been filled?
If the Republicans don’t want to be complete hypocrites, shouldn’t they be traveling around the storm damaged areas exhorting people to “build it themselves”? It’s hilarious how they all bay at the moon about “gubmint checks” and welfare until they’re the ones with their hands out.
Chuck, as you know I’m not a liberal whiner, so I’ll just say it here and now: The Electoral College should be eliminated, as quickly as they can get it eliminated.
Chuck, back during Bush/Gore, I was assured by a RWer I know that if Gore had lost the popular vote but won in the EC, “Blood would run in the streets”.
Well, we all know how it ended up, and the same RWer was remarkably content with the outcome.
Wrong again Dan. Even if the President wins the Electrical vote and loses the popular vote I will continue to support the constitution and the Electoral College system. We are a coalition of States! Plus it will never happen. As a matter of fact I would support returning to the day when the States selected the Senators.
I have some thoughts as to how the storm may actually benefit Governor Romney, but out of respect for my liberal friends, Dan, Richard, Sandi, Kristen, Debbie and others I won’t post it.
Kristen,
Did that Rwer put on a brown suit and drive down to Fla. to push around the harried poll workers? A lot of them did.
Movie Trivia time. What movie did I quote “Outstanding Red Team outstanding.”
No Dan, he was lots of talk and no action. Lots of smuggery.
MichaelH, her parents should be grateful that her privileged and comfortable upbringing hasn’t rendered her indifferent to the suffering of other people out there.
if you lib’s want to swallow every little morsel that Obama spits out I can only refer to you as gullible, if not lemming like. You only see the world in front of you, trying looking at the big picture and where he’s leading this country. I find it very scary. We do have one thing in common though, every ad of Obama’s I see I call B.S.
Watch “2016: Obama’s America” and then tell me that’s what you really want for this country.
#12. “If Obama does win the EC but loses the popular vote, the only thing I think we can predict with certainty is that we won’t hear liberals whining about how the electoral college is outdated and should be eliminated like they did back in 2000. ”
You’re absolutely right. Conservatives will be whining.
@Michael: “I gave her the Republican position that a growing economy gives all an opportunity, and the business of this country is business and we need a pro business administration.”
It’s hard to imagine how Obama could have been more pro-business. Corporate profits are at record highs. The Dow’s recovered from the crash. He rescued an entire industry that would have gone under, taking the American economy down with it.
Obama has been pro-business. The right’s simply too blinded and misinformed to realize it.
Ha! Ha! Watchdog believes that anything in “2016″ is remotely factual, and he calls liberals “gullible.”
ROFL.
Dan R ask any banker about Dodd Frank; Obama Care, tax increase, environmental regulations. I don’t personally know any business owner or leader that supports The President or think he is pro business.
I just wish that since this Hurricane was going to hit, it would have done so a week later. That would have been a big boost for Romney. I’m hoping for three feet of snow on the 5th.
Michael Howdyshell, Dan R is right. Obama has been very pro-business, pro-energy. Hell, even the number of workers in coal mines increased under Obama, for God’s sake.
Yes, he got ACA passed. He copied Romney’s Heritage Foundation-endorsed health care plan. It doesn’t impact businesses that already provide basic health insurance to employees. And he pushed thru banking reregulation. It was necessary and overdue, and it didn’t go far enough.
Your out there Dan really out there.
Dan and Dan? No comment on the Rasmussen poll??
Oh I did tell my friends daughter if that is what she truly believes then she should vote for President Obama, because that is his vision for America.
So much nicer here without Jethrene. Interesting he disappears to “Zimbabwe” until after the election.
Dodd-Franks could, and should have been much tougher. The irresponsible behavior of banks, you may recall, plunged the global economy into a major recession that we’re still trying to recover from. Obamacare, as Dan C said, was a very conservative approach to health care reform that will actually help level the playing field among businesses (and offer small businesses very hefty tax breaks to insure their employees). Obama has cut taxes tremendously on small businesses and advocates a cut to the corporate income tax, as long as that cut is accompanied by closing the loopholes that let some companies get away with paying no corporate income taxes, even with record profits.
And Obama has not done nearly as much as he could or should to protect the environment. That the little he has done is taken as such an affront only tells you how lax things had gotten under eight years of Bush/Cheney.
“Dan and Dan? No comment on the Rasmussen poll??”
[Shrug].
Michael;
My grandmother had a saying, “nothing is foolproof to the sufficiently talented fool.” I’m glad you found your niche.
“Obamacare, as Dan C said, was a very conservative approach to health care reform that will actually help level the playing field among businesses (and offer small businesses very hefty tax breaks to insure their employees). Obama has cut taxes tremendously on small businesses and advocates a cut to the corporate income tax, as long as that cut is accompanied by closing the loopholes that let some companies get away with paying no corporate income taxes, even with record profits.”
Allow me to repeat something I posted as an addenda to a reply to Dave Hicks yesterday, which serves to demonstrate the level of misinformation that’s out there regarding ACA:
I had a conversation last week with an employee of a local business that has fewer than 10 employees. The very religious owner told the employee that’s it’s vital for Romney to win because if he doesn’t, “Obamacare” is going to decimate this person’s business, because of the penalties businesses will HAVE to pay for not providing health insurance to workers. Employee hours will have to be cut, if the business is able to remain open, etc. The employer was very serious about all this; claimed the business’s accountant had been very clear.
This (and some other things) were clearly said with the intent to influence the employee’s vote. How can I tell?
Because then then the employer ASKED WHO THE EMPLOYEE WOULD VOTE FOR. The employee’s semi-cryptic reply (“the candidate who’s most Christ-like, of course”) seemed to mollify the boss.
I’m not making this up.
Now, either the accountant lied to the business owner, or the business owner is confused about the law, or the business owner is lying. It has to be one of those three.
Because under ACA, there are no penalties for not providing insurance for businesses with fewer than 50 employees.
Dan R. Are you kidding me? What about the Barney Franks roll in the real estate bubble? What about the individual dumb $%$ that borrowed way more than they could afford. Typical liberal responses punish the masses for the actions of a few. I love the outdoors just spent a week in Canada duck and goose hunting. I also believe very few environmental concerns should stand in the way of business progress. The only exceptions I can think of is the protection of a few and I do mean very few Civil War Battle Fields and the protection of the underwater caves in Florida as this effects drinking water, irrigation and of course cave diving. Almost every law and regulation should past a test as to if the pending legislation is good for business. Not good for business not good for the country!
I have not been able to find one republican who can intelligently explain to me their beef with Obamacare, other than to say, “Why should I have to pay for any one else’s healthcare.” …and we all know where that argument leads.
Dan C Twice today you have forgotten the Constitution. The Massachusetts Law was passed at the State level. I frankly don’t care what they do or if Oregon legalizes Marijuana I don’t chose to live in either one of these States. Glad they exist for libs that want to live there. I really believe you would like to do away with all state lines and make us one big happy liberal country. WRONG!
Rasmussen has been pretty thoroughly discredited for its Republican bias. In any case, I don’t pay attention to any one poll in any one state. I think it’s pretty clear that Obama will take Ohio (especially after Romney’s Jeep lies backfired so badly). And that means he will almost certainly win the Electoral College vote.
@Dan C: “Because under ACA, there are no penalties for not providing insurance for businesses with fewer than 50 employees.”
Exactly. And, not only that, there ARE tax credits for those small businesses that do provide insurance (something that will be far more affordable thanks to the state exchanges the law calls for).
You are correct Dan, We have a few under 50 and if Obama Care stands we will never have over 50 and may cut out our employee insurance program anyway. They are going to have to buy it anyway why should I pay for it?
@Michael #32: If your friend’s daughter said she wanted America to be more like Europe in that “there are less really poor and less really rich,” as opposed to the nonsensical paraphrase with which you originally followed your quote, then you are correct. That is President Obama’s vision. Income inequality in America is getting to an unsustainable level. A democracy cannot continue functioning if 1 percent of the population ends up controlling 80 or 90 percent of the wealth.
Obama’s solution isn’t to tax prosperity away from the wealthy and give goodies to the poor, though. It’s to ensure that we all play by the same rules, that we all pay our share of taxes — including those who have gotten a relative free ride for the last decade — and that America is a land of opportunity where we all recognize that things like education, infrastructure and other areas in which Americans pull together are worth investing in as a society.
We’ve done the “I’ve got mine, screw you” bit for the last decade. It hasn’t worked out too well. It’s time to understand that America is at its best when the opportunity for success, and the foundation to achieve it, are available to everyone.
“You are correct Dan, We have a few under 50 and if Obama Care stands we will never have over 50 and may cut out our employee insurance program anyway. They are going to have to buy it anyway why should I pay for it?”
–Comment by Michael Howdyshell.
Michael, put your thinking cap back on.
1) You are already meeting the law’s mandate, and THAT is a reason for not growing? Beyond subsidizing new employees’ healthcare like you’re already doing, what is your added cost?
2) Cutting your existing employees off from healthcare is a theoretical strategy that will only work if every other company in your industry does the same thing. If they don’t your employees will flee. I presume you believe that those employees are making you money, and that you’re just not holding onto them out of the goodness of your heart.
So what is the upside to you either way?
@Michael: “I also believe very few environmental concerns should stand in the way of business progress. The only exceptions I can think of is the protection of a few and I do mean very few Civil War Battle Fields and the protection of the underwater caves in Florida as this effects drinking water, irrigation and of course cave diving. Almost every law and regulation should past a test as to if the pending legislation is good for business. Not good for business not good for the country!”
That is the dumbest, most radical, short-sighted and dangerous statement I’ve seen anyone on this blog make … ever.
You don’t think drinking water everywhere should be protected by regulations? Look what companies are dumping in our rivers and streams today after 40 years of the Clean Water Act and imagine what it was like before — you know, when rivers caught on fire. You think only clean air regulations that are good for business should be kept? Hope you never come down with asthma. You think companies should be able to dump toxic waste anywhere, no matter where it might flow because to do otherwise would be “bad for business”? And you think all THAT would be good for the country. Have you looked at the livability in Chinese cities recently, because that’s what you are wishing on all of us here.
I thought you were a pretty intelligent person, Michael, but this post is complete and utter nonsense. Wow.
Dan R,
The current average of polls(RCP)in Ohio has the two candidates well within the margin of error (Obama +1.9). Obama’s lead has grown smaller and smaller in Ohio over the last few weeks. Not a good sign…
“He(Romney) and President Barack Obama each carried 49% of likely voters in the survey, conducted for a consortium of Ohio newspapers and made public Sunday. Last month, Mr. Obama had led in the survey by five percentage points.”–Again, not a good sign for Obama.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970203880704578085131573820180.html?mod=WSJ_hps_MIDDLENexttoWhatsNewsThird
“The Gallup poll is national, and the Obama campaign will probably argue it’s the early voters in swing states that matter. But signs aren’t good for Obama in Ohio early voting, either, at least compared to his 2008 record. At Politico, Adrian Gray writes:
I have always been a believer in data telling me the full story. Truth is, nobody knows what will happen on Election Day. But here is what we do know: 220,000 fewer Democrats have voted early in Ohio compared with 2008. And 30,000 more Republicans have cast their ballots compared with four years ago. That is a 250,000-vote net increase for a state Obama won by 260,000 votes in 2008.”
http://www.commentarymagazine.com/2012/10/30/obamas-early-voting-strategy-flops/
I’m not calling any shots here, but I would certainly say that an Obama victory in Ohio is anything but clear.
“It appears this Ohio Romney Campaign event masquerading as a Hurricane Relief gathering will backfire badly on Mitt in the campaign’s final days.” How is it going to backfire on him? By reporters reporting it?
Thanks Dan. I take that as a compliment. Of course I said it to make a point. We need safe drinking water and clean air to breathe etc etc etc. In saying that who really cares about a bunch of old tree’s standing in the way of a construction project or the mating season of squirrels standing in the way of construction at Snowshoe Mountain or the impact oil drilling may have on the mating practices of polar bears. These are the things I’m talking about not clean air or clean drinking water.
Dan, every heard herd of cutting off your nose to spite your face? Let those that voted for The President feel the effects of their vote.
Has Obama instituted some kind of regulation upon cave divers? Is that why Michael Howdyshell brought it up?
Dan R Thank you for the compliment and I apologize for my rant. Likewise I have always thought you, and Dan C, are thoughtful and intelligent people. We just have different visions for our country. Believe it or not I defend Dan C a lot to my conservative friends. Sometimes I can only take so many liberal post and I feel like I’m going to explode. My response is to post something so extreme as to send the liberals, on this blog over the edge. I respect my friend’s daughter as she has voiced what many liberals really want but are too embarrassed or ashamed to admit, a more socialized America. I believe strongly in States Rights, The Constitution and Free Enterprise.
No it’s just something I’m very proud of and like to get it in every chance I get. Plus it shows I do have some environmental concerns
“Dan, every heard herd of cutting off your nose to spite your face? Let those that voted for The President feel the effects of their vote.”
Michael, if your company ends your employees’ health insurance benefits as some kind of revenge for Obama’s re-election, it won’t be those who voted for the president who’ll be in pain. It’s be YOU, cutting off the nose off your company’s face. You’ll be bleeding all over town.
For goodness sake, it’s like a Buddhist monk who pulls an immolation.
Of course not Dan and we don’t make those kinds of decisions on a whim or on any kind of political motivation it’s simply a dollars and sense decision. But it did feel good say!
Michael, Regarding health care, if you buy into the Republican strategy of kicking the can down the road, neither you not your employees will be able to afford health insurance in the very near future. Costs have actually come down somewhat in the last 2 years as a result of ACA – primarily because of the minimum loss ratio requirements required of health insurance companies now. I don’t think ACA went far enough to control costs but at least it is a start. Once ACA is fully implented, cost shifting from the uninsured population will cease. That alone is estimated to currently be over $1,000 per insured person.
Republicans’s only proposed solutions are tort reform and selling across state lines (which wouldn’t do jack to help costs) and we’d still have over 30 million uninsured.
Regarding employees, I have seen so many cases where there are employees and dependents who have chronic conditions. In addition to the employee’s share of the premium, the employee is hitting an $8,000 to $10,000 out-of-pocket maximum. In a lot of these cases, the employee is making $40,000 or less per year. The premium plus the out of pocket expenses are a HUGE part of that employees disposable income.
The employees I describe can’t get ahead. Many have to declare bankruptcy to get out from under the medical expense debt they have accumulated. They can’t start a business because they can’t medically qualify for individual coverage.
The other problem with your reasoning is that you don’t know what the cost for coverage through the exchanges will be…no one does at this point. You will this time next year and you will be able to make a business decision on which way to go. One of your options will be to participate in one of 2 plans that are mirrors of the Federal Employee Health Plan (FEHBP). Another option will be commercial insurance plans through the exchanges.
I guess Donald Trump doesn’t know that no one cares about his offer.
http://www.newser.com/story/156716/trump-to-obama-ok-you-can-have-more-time.html
Bill,
Thank you for your thoughtful response. I agree there is a problem with cost. I’m not sure what the solution is but I do agree there is a problem. I do think people should take a greater responsibility in paying for routine health care. Insurance, in my opinion should be for catastrophic events. Routine doctor’s visits and MOST Rx should be paid for by individuals. There are some items in the AHCA that I agree with; I don’t have a problem with children staying on their parent’s policy. Two things I disagree with are forcing the citizens of the several states by the Federal Government to purchase insurance, and telling insurance companies they have to provide coverage to all. The solution to the cost problem probably involves the Government, insurance companies, health care providers and business’s working together for a common solution, not having one forced on them by the Government.
Michael Howdyshell,
I guess you believe that there should be no regulation of the Chesapeake Bay Watershed? Do you give any thought to what happens if you misapply lawn fertilizer to your yard? Do you give any thought to the impact of dairy farm runoff into the watershed? Do you think any of that has a negative impact on business people like you who happen to make their livings from the Chesapeake Bay? Read the article below and give just a second thought to your belief that there should be few environmental regulations on business or individuals.
http://myemail.constantcontact.com/Clean-Water-Act–Because-Everybody-Lives-Downstream.html?soid=1102968923571&aid=2aaEPtS1u2Y
With all due respect, Michael, I don’t think the problem with health care is that individuals don’t pay enough, and it always astounds me when conservatives suggest that’s the case. I don’t know about you, but my family already pays plenty for health care, and, frankly, a visit to the doctor is nothing I – or anyone else I know – ever thinks would be a great thing to do, especially since it’s “free,” or, in my case, only $25 a pop.
The problems with health care are many fold, but mostly, this: health care is treated, more or less, like a free market decision, but it is a market unlike any other. There is no transparency, but there is great urgency. If you go in for a major medical procedure, there is no way to tell how much it’s going to cost (either you or your insurance company), and you will spend month’s after sorting out the bills.
Health care is not a normal free market transaction, and it should not be treated as such.
I reject the conflation of liberalism and socialism – and am sorry, Michael, that you fall into that simplistic mindset. But, when it comes to health care, I am a very firm believer in socialized medicine. Medicare for all. Your ability to receive medical attention should in no way whatsoever be tied to your economic status. Denying care to the poor because they are poor is simply immoral. And as long as we have a for-profit, free-market health care system, one way or another, health care will be denied to the poor, and Mitt Romney’s nonsense about emergency room treatment notwithstanding, the poor will die because of that denial.
If we start with the notion that everyone should receive a basic level of health care regardless of economic situation, then build a system based on that foundational principle, we’d end up with a far better, far more effective and far more efficient system – even if it is socialized – than the monstrosity we have now.
Obamacare is a step in the right direction, blunting the worst of the insurance industry malfeasance. But it is only a step. We have a long way to go to reach a rational system that truly and efficiently achieves universal coverage..
Dan R, Micheal Howdyshell has explicitly said before on this blog that he thinks that one’s ability to receive medical care SHOULD be tied to one’s economic status. He also undoubtedly thinks that construction jobs created by building oceanfront Mcmansions on fragile barrier island beaches in the path of hurricanes, subsidized by taxpayer funded federal insurance and mortgage deductions for those second homes, is much more important than any other arrangement. He thinks it’s that simple, so he thinks it’s right.
Nothing is irreducibly complex in the world of Micheal Howdyshell.
Warren,
I hear you. One of the many things wrong with the country is there are lots of people who to their last breath will tell you they believe their oceanfront investment homes should be INSURED BY TAXPAYERS, their duck-hunting forays SUBSIDIZED BY TAXPAYERS, and their fishing trips and golf outings UNDERWRITTEN BY TAXPAYERS.
All of these things and much, much more are considered “entitlements” by certain classes who disguise them as “business expenses” on a balance sheet somewhere. And, that means no taxes are paid on the money that covers these entertainments. When they play golf, you and I are paying a piece of their green fees. But when you and I go to movie, we pay the full boat.
It’s even more disgusting when these same “entitled” classes begin spitting and sputtering about poor schlubs on welfare or food stamps. And disgusting isn’t strong enough a word.
“Nothing is irreducibly complex in the world of Micheal Howdyshell.”
Mike has often said, “if I can do it, anybody can,” over time I have come to agree with him.
Stop me if you’ve heard this one:
Romney’s advice for folks in the path of Sandy? Flee to your second or third homes.
Thank you, ladies and germs.
after reading this thread its obvious Dan R. makes up the “facts” as he goes along. Which part of 2016: Obama’s America did you not find factual. Oh, wait a minute you haven’t seen it have you? That could possible invoke some perspective on your part, on 2nd thought, no.
Even conservatives know that you need to be healthy to work and prosper. The way that you are healthy is to take care of yourself, exercise, eat right etc. But the truth is that regular check ups, screenings, and monitoring of your health is also crucial. Dental visits save your teeth, eye exams save your sight and health check ups keep you healthy and head off many debilitating or deadly illnesses. That is a simple fact that even you can admit Michael.
If you work for $10-12 per hour, even working full time, you cannot afford regular eye-dental-health care. You simply cannot. Unless your employer pays a big portion, you cannot afford health insurance either. Again, simple facts.
Health care, eye care, dental care, is expensive. It is even more so when you have let a condition get critical. That happens when you do not have the money for the preventive care and maintenance so you go to the emergency room, have expensive procedures or maybe even die. There is no production in that scenario, not for anyone. Good workers die every day in this nation. I’m sure it would suit the simple way of looking at this if all of those workers were deadbeats living on your lavish tax funded freebies, but again, the simple fact is that is not true.
Compassion, empathy and best business practices seems to have been traded for the ‘I got mine and screw the rest of you’ political ideology that accepts and supports the Plutocracy. And it is showing every day in this nation. You get a better workforce, better employees and better business when employees are not scrambling just to survive. You KNOW this from your own life.
This election, more than any other in our lifetimes is about what kind of country we want ALL of us to live in, not just the wealthy and privileged.
Art, you have no idea how right you are! Dan you simply don’t get it. When folks start a business they generally risk everything and I do mean everything they have. If the business fails their families could well be living on the streets. You really believe the 50% entertainment deduction is being supported by taxpayers. Simply not true. Your assuming that the money being spent on entertainment would otherwise be profit which is not always the case. What do you think of the company purchasing lunch for the staff during meetings? Should that be tax deductible? If you want to takes some deductions start a business and take the risk and stop criticizing those that do.
Michael Howdyshell, I asked a similar question of you in another thread and I guess you missed it:
You say you want your children to grow up responsible and productive, does that mean you offer them opportunity, encouragement and the tools to achieve that goal or do you kick them to the street and tell them to get it on their own if they want it?
How about your friends, neighbors, family, church friends or even employees? Do you assist them in their quest for success or deny them access to you and yours? Do you give them support, encouragement, tools, tips, maybe even donate to their care, cause or education?
My guess is that you have helped people and were glad to do it.
My guess is that you are friendly, warm and willing to help someone at a moment’s notice.
My guess is you give your children chances and make efforts to teach them and enrich their lives to help them learn, like to compete, participate and succeed so they will always live that model.
My guess is you clearly see the value of helping people when they need it and realize that giving opportunity is what helps motivate and inspire people.
My guess too, is that you applaud the guys like Romney that literally game the system to become rich at the same time you decry the lazy, unmotivated poor, simple-minded people who game the safety net system.
Michael, being a duck hunter, I’m sure you are a member of Ducks Unlimited? Have you looked at their conservation efforts?
Michael, so you don’t think insurance companies should have to cover everyone? You dont agree with the individual mandate. LOL. Insurance Companies lobbied for ACA and the individual mandate.
I read an article the other day that said Insurance Company CEOs are in a pickle because most are Republicans but support ACA and your boy Romney wants to repeal it. Poor babies.
ACA has gone to the USSC and won. It’s the law of the land…get over it folks.
Michael,
If you buy your staffers turkey and ham sandwiches from Macados, that’s one thing. If it’s 5-pound lobsters and Chateaubriand, that’s another.
So Sandi, the workers go looking for jobs that provide all or a big portion of healthcare then. When employers lose or cannot hire employees because they don’t provide them health insurance, then maybe they will start doing so.
Anyone looking to hire someone long term understands this and anyone looking for a job that will be long term understands this as well.
And by the way, Michael, I wasn’t criticizing your recent duck hunting trip to Canada. I have no idea whether that was a “biz expense” or not. But up in Annapolis, there are lobbyists who take lawmakers duck hunting on the Eastern Shore all the time. Those are “businesses expenses.”
No Dan, my trip had nothing to do with Business. I have been on hunting trips as a guest and made trips that were business and company paid for and I have no problem with others including politicians doing the same thing. Yes Bill I am a member of DU and strongly support their conservation efforts. I just enjoy making the hard core liberals mad. Some people play golf, I make liberals mad such great sport.
Yes Sandi, and I’m sure you do the same things. As I have said many times I’m sure you are a wonderful person, Mother and model citizen. One of the main difference between us is our views on the role of the Federal Government in our society. I have no problem what so ever with your views, you do not alter as I believe you have said you are a proud liberal, and you are very consistent. Plus you can support your opinions with well researched facts and well written blogs. Good people can disagree.
and Sandi you like me are not ashamed of your views and put your real name out there for all to see. In our society that takes courage, or as my wife would say stupidity (about me anyway)
Look watchdog, if you and your fellow right wingers want to be manipulated and lied to that is your choice. Do not think you can denigrate the intelligence or integrity of those who will not join you as you cower in anonymity and attack us, fall for the narrative lacking any credibility and wallow in the implied bigotry of 2016 the movie! Do you folks remember “The War of the Worlds”? Some of you are still living it.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_War_of_the_Worlds_(radio_drama)
Michael, you do not so much make liberals mad as conservatives look bad, but nice try.
Right Marked Man because labor in this nation has been so strong and in control for so long. Who is it you are kidding? Workers have few to no options and everyone, including business knows that.
hey dano, you ol’ “English major and proud of it” guy. …in your post @#74, what’s with the extra “es” at the end of the word “business”? didja get some extra finger strokes in “there”, big guy?
Hey Michael,
Have you noticed that it’s getting easier and easier these days to make the hard core liberals mad?
Well Sandi, Mitt will be straightening out obama’s failed four years shortly to remedy that.
Oh Frank just wait until next week. If Governor Romney, and I think that is very likely, I would pay a fair amount of money to hear President Obama’s concession speech. He is going to be very angry. Did you notice how angry he was in the 3rd debate? How dare anyone question anything he has done! HA. The country is going to be called raciest, among other things. The direction of our country will certainly change for the better, but not to the liberals liking. They are going to scream like a bunch of scalded cats. It’s going to be great!
insert “wins” so excited about the prospect of this nightmare OKA the Obama administration ending that I left out a word.
You are mistaking our points for anger, it is pure unadulterated disdain. No one can respect people so devoid of reality, facts or truth or so willing to discard all three if it does not suit your POV.
“I would pay a fair amount of money to hear President Obama’s concession speech.”
Michael, I sincerely doubt Obama will be giving a concession speech. But if he does, you can come over to my place and watch it on TV. I’ll only charge you $1,000.
Heck, maybe you can write it off as a business expense!
But Michael, that is just it. When you get right down to it, we do not disagree. You KNOW what motivates you. You KNOW what motivates, interests and encourages your children, which is why you do it. You KNOW what motivates your friends, neighbors, co-workers and even me. Yet you think the government should just abandon people who do not have the gifts and drive that you have until they “get” it. You don’t “get” it Michael, you have it taught to you and offered to you by those who inspire, support and encourage you. Until you either stop looking at a hand up as only a hand out, I am going to harp.
You have no problem with the tax help, aid, incentive, support and breaks Romney has acquired on his road to fame and fortune, yet you bemoan a $10 an hour laborer getting some government help for health care he cannot afford? Where is there any logic (simple or complex) in that?
We shall see Dan we shall see!
That is funny Michael, coming from the bunch who have “scream like a bunch of scalded cats” for four years now, that is.
Hope I brought a little joy to your life today Sandi!
“Art, you have no idea how right you are!”
ZOOOOOOMMMMMM!!!!!!! (The sound of my point going right over Michael’s head.)
hey Michael,
I’m right with you. Yep, …scalded cats, stuck pigs, “hell hath no fury like a woman scorned”… We’re gonna see and hear some awful stuff.
The blind sheik will be happy, though.
Art boy that went right over your head. I did get it and agree with you