The Polls! The Polls! The Polls! — Oct. 9, 2012
Advantage: Obama by 0.5 points
It’s been a big week for Mitt Romney. His Energizer Bunny performance in Wednesday’s debate, which he won on style though not on facts, has buoyed his campaign. What was looking almost like a runaway re-election for President Obama now appears to be a much tighter race.
As a result, Republicans are understandably doing cartwheels. The more exuberant of them are acting like sharks in bloody seawater. The Mittster must be feeling a little bit like a high school sophomore on his first date, after the girl has blabbed she’s on the pill.
As of this morning, the Real Clear Politics polling average had Obama ahead by 0.5. That means it appears his lead has shrunk by 2.7 percentage points in a week.
On the other hand, Romney’s alleged “lead,” according to Unskewedpolls.com, has slid by an even larger number. Two weeks ago that one-man poll-”correcting” and averaging shop in Duffield, Va. (pop. 91) soothsayed that Mitt was 7.8 points ahead. Now, Unskewedpolls.com says, he’s just 2.5 points ahead. That’s twice as big a slide as Obama’s.
It also puts the race within the margin of error by either average.
There also are signs Romney has improved his position in key swing states, such as our own Virginia, where the RCP polling average has shrunk to Obama by 0.3 points.
Public Policy’s Polling’s most recent poll shows that gap has narrowed to 3 percent, 50 for Obama to 47 percent for Romney. PPP’s previous poll had showed Obama with a 5-point lead, 51 to 46 percent.
On the other hand, there are rays of hope for Obama supporters.
“We’ve been calling Virginia Obama’s firewall state the entire cycle and this is just more evidence for it,” Dean Debnam, president of PPP, said in a statement. “Even after one of his worst weeks of the campaign Obama continues to hold the lead there.”
Another ray of hope is that Romney continues murdering facts and truth just like he did during the debate last week. That’s a risky gambit with a month to go in the campaign, because there’s plenty of time for the truth to emerge and bite back. It is not quite clear whether these at-odds-with-the-facts statements are deliberate distortions and lies, or growing evidence of incompetence.
The most recent instance occurred at Virginia Military Institute on Monday, where during what his campaign billed as a “major foreign policy speech,” Romney incredulously claimed Obama “has not signed one new free trade agreement in the past four years,” and promised to “reverse that failure.”
Obama signed three just last year, of course – with Panama, Colombia and South Korea. Golly, even Fox News reported on those.
Will Obama’s apparent razor-thin lead hold? Will Romney continue his remarkable slide on the unabashedly pro-Romney Unskewedpolls.com?
Stay tuned. Our next “The Polls! The Polls! The Polls!” is only a week away.
In the meantime, we’ll have have Thursday’s vice-presidential debate!
October 9, 2012 - 11:00 AM
“As a result, Republicans are understandably doing cartwheels. The more exuberant of them are acting like sharks in bloody seawater. The Mittster must be feeling a little bit like a high school sophomore on his first date, after the girl has blabbed she’s on the pill.”
What a great role model for your son.
In other words. Polls are complete BS, go vote. That’s the only place it counts.
Yeah, gotta love that Pew Research Center Poll, currently showing Romney leading by +4. Romney has also pulled within 3pts in Michigan, 2pts in Pennslyvania, and 2pts in Wisconsin. Virginia, Florida, Colorado, and Ohio are now essentially tied. Pew also shows Romney and Obama tied among women voters. Just in mid-September, Obama led among women voters by 18pts according to Pew. Now, less than a month later, they are even. Ouch. Romney’s favorable rating is now at 50% for the first time, while Obama’s dropped from 55% to 49%.
“UnskewedPolls” = “Pull stuff out of my butt and pretend it means something”
Can I just interject sanity in all this nonsense? Let me say the same thing I have been saying months. Romney leads by a significant margin today, as he did yesterday, last week, and last month. 0bama was NEVER going to win, was never going to come close.
Romney is going to win in a landslide, and was always going to do so. The only difference is now more people know it.
if she was on the pill, i hope the mittster performed like the energizer bunny. anything less would be unacceptable!
Dan
Obama is in free fall. PPP is a liberal, democratic polling firm and they just published their national poll with Rmoney up 4!
The energy is way with Romney and that is the key late in the campaign.
I’m hungry!
0.5% is really a dead heat. How do the electoral votes line up?
Before the RWers on Dan’s blog begin to tout the Pew Research sampling released yesterday, a few caveats. By any measure, Romney won the debate last Wednesday. However as each day passes, Romney’s bump has diminished, and voters have begun peeling away from him.
RWers are so fond of posting this comment,“It is just one poll” – especially when a poll doesn’t favor their candidate – now they need to heed their own warning.
The Pew Research sampling from yesterday, according to Pew Research’s own crosstabs [pdf.], will likely turn into an outlier in a sampling/technical sense:
☻In 2008, voters age 50+ made up 43% of the total votes. Pew’s recent sample reflected a 68% population of 50+.
☻In 2008, 57% of the vote were 18-49 year olds, this Pew sampling reflected only a 30% sampling of this population.
☻78% of LV’s sampled in this Pew poll were white. Only 12% of voters polled by Pew in this sample were non white – by most reliable pollsters/statisticians, the figure for the Non-white [Hispanics] vote is projected to be 28% in the 2012 election.
☻The polling regions of this Pew sample were non-representative of actual percentage of Likely Voters by regions: Northeast 201; Midwest 271; SOUTH 417; West 223. This is an over-representation of southern voters, a traditionally republican voting block.
☻ There was an under-sampling of women among the 1112 likely voters sampled.
The Pew demographics used in this poll were inconsistent with usual comparison percentages of the 2004 or 2008 presidential races. Their crosstab pdf. is available on the Pew Research website. Has Romney made gains? Yes, but a reality-based analysis can put it in perspective along with a good dose of common sense, plus, Obama again leads in Gallup and Rasmussen – and the Romney “bounce” is decreasing on a daily basis.
Yoy may want to update your intro. RCP avg. has Rmoney up .7%.
Romney up in Colorado, Florida, NC, soon to be in Ohio now too (on the average of the polls, not just Pew or Gallup, but the entire AVERAGE). Is Shrill still here??
Pennsylvania’s support of obama is in a FREEFALL as well!
LOL. Shrill, you are hilarious. Of course NOW the polls are skewed when they show ya boy losing. And it’t not just one Poll, Shrilly. There are a lot of them showing this trend towards Romney. Spend a few minutes on RCP’s site, and then come and play. Keep in mind, Shrilly, that Pew is a left-leaning Polling firm. And according to RCP, Romney leads by 2 in the Gallup Poll conducted from 10/2 – 10/8 and Rasmussen has them tied in their most recent poll from 10/6 – 10/8….
You claim voters are “peeling away from Romney.” Yep, that is certainly true in Virginia, Colorado, Ohio, Pennslyvania, Wisconsin, North Carolina, Florida, and Michigan–all states that Romney is now leading in or quickly closing the gap…
Re: Comment by Suzie — October 9, 2012 @ 11:59 am
Can I just interject sanity in all this nonsense?
———————
Highly doubtful.
I think before the Shrill even finished her last statement, Romney was tied in Rasmussen and ahead according to Gallup.
Oops, Shrill!!!
I have said it before and I repeat myself… polls mean little at this point
The pollsters will be covering their a$$ after the next couple weeks and then we might have some realistic numbers to discuss.
Anyone who believes that Romney took a 20 point swing among women in one week are just as naïve as those who believe that unemployment dropped below 8% in one month. The fact is that either both numbers are incorrect now or they were incorrect before.
Obama’s up 6 in Pennsylvania. The Electoral College numbers haven’t changed. And Pew is out of line with everyone. If Rmoney were genuinely up .7, Rasmussen would have him leading by 6 at least, and Rasmussen shows a tie.
This might explain why the EC numbers haven’t changed.
“Romney up in Colorado, Florida, NC, soon to be in Ohio now too (on the average of the polls, not just Pew or Gallup, but the entire AVERAGE).”
MMM,
… and where can we find “the entire AVERAGE?” RCP is not an entire average.
I am officially encouraging RWers to love and believe in the polls numbers as they now stand.
Boys, boys, boys – falling all over yourselves trying to disprove the facts…where are your links to these “new” remarkable numbers you are touting? I live in a real world, real numbers, real people. RWers seem to live in a falsely constructed alternative reality…
Polls released tonight:
CNN Poll – Ohio – Obama 51% Romney 47% Date conducted: 10/5/2012 – 10/8/2012
http://www.cnn.com/POLITICS/pollingcenter/index.html?iid=article_sidebar
10/09/2012: Romney now trails by only 6 points in New Hampshire, according to a new poll released Tuesday evening
http://livewire.talkingpointsmemo.com/entry/poll-romney-cuts-into-obamas-lead-in-new
and this from the Romney campaign:
inside the campaign: “The Romney rebellion”
“Campaign officials said any change will be confined by Romney’s own cautious nature. And they are candid that their electoral map still looks terrible: Romney is behind in nearly every vital state. Ohio still looks very tough to win and New Hampshire, once a possibility, looks very bleak, officials say.”
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1012/82160_Page2.html#ixzz28pyPLNG3
and this from Nate Silver – October 8, 2012:
Romney’s “chances of winning the Electoral College increasing to 25.2 percent from 21.6 percent on Sunday.”
So you guys like these new odds? Chance of President Obama being re-elected = 74.8% – Romney being elected = 25.2%…you fellas must pick some real “winners”….
Oh wow – Lyin Ryan is “girding his loin” in order to protect himself from his own lies and Romney’s lying fest last Wednesday. Seems he knows the lies are catching up to him and his cohort.
Today Ryan is inoculating himself from Biden:
“Ryan told radio host Frank Beckmann on WJR in Detroit. “It seems pretty clear that their new strategy is just to call us liars, to descend into a mud pit.” http://www.usatoday.com/story/onpolitics/2012/10/08/paul-ryan-debate-joe-biden-wjr-interview/1621393/
Shrilly,
No one needs to provide you with links. You can access RCP just as easily as the next person. That would be the same RCP that Dan and others have spoken highly of on this blog.
And since you no longer feel that Pew is credible, even though they are a left-leaning polling firm, check out the Daily Kos/SEIU poll conducted by PPP-yet another left-leaning polling firm. They have Romney +2, the first time he has led in their poll (same with RCP and Pew).
Either way, I tend to agree with Mike O. Polls at this point in the game are of little value. It’s just fun to watch all the lib heads spinning away as a once slam-dunk election has turned into a crapshoot due to Dear Leader’s epic failure at the debate.
“Ryan told radio host Frank Beckmann on WJR in Detroit. “It seems pretty clear that their new strategy is just to call us liars, to descend into a mud pit.”
Comment by Shrillary — October 9, 2012 @ 9:04 pm
Since this is all Obama/Biden have to run on; and much, much more to run
away from; Ryan’s comment makes complete sense. The big difference is that Romney/Ryan are only accused of lying…where Obama/Biden have been
caught in blatant lies multiple times…Libya, Solyndra, $5 Trillion tax
cut, Fast and Furious, Sebelius, etc., etc.; the list just goes on and on.
Thanks for the insight Sillary !
matt – don’t assume you know what I think, since you will be wrong. Just as wrong as this comment, “And since you no longer feel that Pew is credible”.
Pew is a reliable resource most of the time – this particular sampling did not follow their usual methodology, and they used “raw” numbers. This sampling by Pew will prove to be an outlier – something that does not often happen to their research sampling. They are not left nor right leaning, so again, your assumption is inaccurate, at best.
matt – the polls that have been reported recently are those that have included the “bounce” Romney got from his “performance”. From this point on and into next weekend, the polls will settle down to reflect the race…just as the new CNN poll has Obama up in Ohio, because it was conducted after the weekend of Romney’s bounce. Either way, whether you believe in the polls or not, for most people they are indicative of the electorate at the moment.
Leon do you read? Except for RW media, all the news outlets, including the kind you have to actually read, have reported on the the volumes of lies presented in the 90 minute debate last Wednesday. Fact checkers couldn’t keep up. Romney isn’t a flip flopper he’s a liar – proficient at “lying for the Lord” – he says one thing on Tuesday then completely repudiates his own statements on Wednesday. He seems to have an inability to tell the truth.
Your rejection of reality is truly pitiful. Romney is a liar just as Ryan is…why otherwise is Ryan reminding everyone that he lies, and will be called out on it? it is called inoculating…
Shrill is trying to explain polls to us.. yet he/she references polls that contain 500 answers on a single day…
Dan, the average of the polls that RCP is reporting. BTW, your numbers are incorrect about the polls on Oct. 9, 2012 at the top of the page.
matt, matt, matt,
Don’t you know that in order for lib polls to keep their respectable rankings among libs, they first must be screened by Shrill. Of course, in order to be deemed “reliable” by Shrill, …the polls must reliably favor libs. Once they prove their reliableness, and can be trusted to “go lib” every time, they pass her muster.
However, once they go right, well, that be the end of’em, as far as Shrill is concerned, and, as far as almost all of the rest of’em as well.
Obuma, due strictly to his atrocious performance against Romney, has caused many, many lib-trusted polls to be thrown under the bus….and perhaps countless “poller” people to get chewed out by their bosses.
October 3 was a very, very, very bad day for libs….and today is a very, very, very bad day for lib poller people.
At a little over 2 posts per hour on this thread, the libs seem to be pretty distraught…sluggish even….maybe they’re having a bad day as well….all because of being jilted by some poller people, and because obuma had an atrociously bad debate. Go figure.
Polls are crap. However, public opinion is not. Dano, you can dismiss Romney’s debate win as all style and no substance, but ask yourself, how shallow is our society? How many elections have been won on style with no substance (HINT: see 2008). Remember the famed televised Kennedy/Nixon debate. The one where Kennedy had Hollywood handlers and Nixon didn’t. Noxon appeared tired and unshaven under the lights of TV while Kennedy appeared young and vibrant (complete with pancake makeup). The result. Kennedy won. He won the debate and the election. The funny part. People who watched the debate on TV were certain Kennedy won handily. However, people who only listened on the radio were equally convinced Nixon had won.
In this case, according to the last debate, it appears Romney leads in style AND substance. The desperation of the libs is obvious as they roll out attack after attack. You guys are doing great at telling everyone all that is wrong with Romney. You know what’s missing from your message? Sure you do. What’s missing is, what’s right about Obama. Each day that passes, every time Obama rolls out yet another Big Bird style attack, it becomes more and more apparent that Obama can’t run on performance. He knows he can’t win on that, so he is constantly attacking.
Dismiss Romney’s “bounce” all you want, but if Obama doesn’t do better in the next debates, you’d better start accepting the fact that more and more Americans will start to realize that in this election they can actually choose what the country’s been missing – a leader who can actually be a PRESIDENT instead of settling for what we’ve had for the last three years, an empty suit full of undelivered promises.
Oh, and tell me another one about that Obama recovery.
http://news.yahoo.com/real-unemployment-rate-still-really-lousy-211815397.html
MMM, the post was correct; the number changed later in the day. They frequently change.
The RCP average is only the last 7 polls. It is not all the polls.
Chuck, the only way you can say Romney won on substance is you define substance as “distortions and lies.” Hell, even Romney’s own people felt compelled to correct their guy’s bull manure after the debate, to wit: His health plan does not (unlike he said in the debate) guarantee coverage for people with pre-existing conditions.
And just for starters, Romney doesn’t have a health plan.
So now the polls can actually be trusted. (Guffaw)
But Dan, I thought Obamacare was Romneycare from Massachusetts repackaged for democrats?
Again, talk about lack of substance all you want, but the truth of the matter is, Obama on the debate stage looked just like his performance has been for the past three years – weak, uncertain, uninformed and indecisive all beset with an undertone of anger. Obama’s uncertainty presents itself in glimpses through the angry arrogance he uses to mask it. All in all, he looked decidedly un-presidential. He certainly did not at all appear to be the strong incumbent for whom even his critics once agreed, it was his race to lose, unless you consider no eye contact and a lot of “uh’s” strong and decisive.
I will give it to you though. The Obama lapdogs in the media are earning their keep. If Obama doesn’t win, it sure won’t be due to lack of effort from you guys. Every day, attack, attack, attack. Romney this and Romney that – everything that’s wrong with Romney. If there are as many things wrong with Romney as you guys would have us believe, how in the world did the guy ever make it to the national stage. If Obama has done such a great job, why aren’t telling us about that?
Wait, Dan. So you are saying in literally a couple hours, the polls went from 0.5 for obama to 0.7 for Mitt?!?? a 1.2 swing in a couple short hours??? Goodness, was there a debate yesterday morning that obama didn’t show up for again? Did Big Bird putting the smackdown on obama’s poor arse really sway voters that much in a couple hundred minutes??
Stay tuned!!
“I will give it to you though. The Obama lapdogs in the media are earning their keep. If Obama doesn’t win, it sure won’t be due to lack of effort from you guys. Every day, attack, attack, attack. Romney this and Romney that…”
How cute. Chuck is already making excuses for Obama’s win next month.
“Wait, Dan. So you are saying in literally a couple hours, the polls went from 0.5 for obama to 0.7 for Mitt?!?? a 1.2 swing in a couple short hours??? Goodness, was there a debate yesterday morning that obama didn’t show up for again? Did Big Bird putting the smackdown on obama’s poor arse really sway voters that much in a couple hundred minutes??”
MMM, No, I’m not saying that.
Okay, I could have swore that RCP went from what you copied (obama +0.5) to what it was at 3:30pm (Romney +0.7) in just a few short hours. I believe that is a 1.2 swing… I could be wrong though, Dan.
Now this is telling. A polite, young gentleman called our house last night at 7:30pm from the ‘obama victory something’ and asked if I would be supporting obama in the upcoming election. I said I will not be supporting obama in the upcoming election and he simply said, ‘Well, thank you for your time’ and hung up.
Didn’t ask me why or tell me any facts as to why I should change my vote.
Seems as if the obama camp is instructing their callers to find obama supporters and then talk to them to help insure they will continue to support for obama. They have essentially given up trying to sway anyone and instead are dropping back in prevent coverage.
“Okay, I could have swore that RCP went from what you copied (obama +0.5) to what it was at 3:30pm (Romney +0.7) in just a few short hours. I believe that is a 1.2 swing… I could be wrong though, Dan.”
MMM,
The RCP average did. “The polls” didn’t. The average is not a poll, nor is it “polls.” It’s an average of 7 different polls that have been taken over different defined time periods.
You obviously don’t understand what it is.
“Now this is telling. A polite, young gentleman called our house last night at 7:30pm from the ‘obama victory something’ and asked if I would be supporting obama in the upcoming election. I said I will not be supporting obama in the upcoming election and he simply said, ‘Well, thank you for your time’ and hung up.”
Really. How dare he be polite? It must be a trick, right?
I just hope Dear Leader continues running Big Bird ads. As long as he keeps focusing on the really important issues, like Big Bird, those “polls” will keep shifting towards Romney.
Wrong Marked, I’ve gotten the same call and what they’re looking for is volunteers to work for the campaign. If you’re not supporting him, you’re not canvassing or phone calling for him either, and they know that. Why waste their time?
Mark, when I worked on GOP campaigns in Virginia Beach and did the caller banks, door-to-door work, etc…we would not try to convince people who said they were voting Democrat to change their minds. Attempting to do so takes a lot of time and effort, and reduces the time available to get in touch with typical Party supporters to remind them to get out and vote. IT also dramatically reduces the ability to get in touch with remaining undecided voters, to present the case for whichever candidate we happened to be working for at the time. It’s a strategic decision to go that way and try to contact as many people who are either favorable or who could be swayed to favorable.
“The average is not a poll, nor is it “polls.” It’s an average of 7 different polls”
Umm.. okay?
No, Dan, you obviously don’t understand. The point isn’t that he was or wasn’t polite, the point is he didn’t even attempt to sway me or ask why I wasn’t supporting obama. They have relagated to simply attempting to keep the voters they have as opposed to trying to reel in any they do not.
Telling indeed!
How did Big Bird get involved in this campaign, anyway?
Oh — that’s right! Mitt Romney, unprompted, BROUGHT HIM UP 7 days ago, unprompted, during his super-dooper victorious debate. That’s how.
But recall, that “victory” was ALL about style. NONE of it was about substance. And when Mitt said he liked Big Bird, but would nonetheless push to defund PBS and Sesame Street, that was ALL STYLE FOLKS.
NONE of the substance mattered, because substance NEVER matters with Mitt. Can’t you get it through your thick skulls that he’ll say ANYTHING to get elected, that he’s been on every side of every issue, depending on whose votes he’s trying to get, for his entire political career?
Unprompted? How dare he, Dan!! To speak effectively (and to which obama couldn’t muster a retort) without the comfort of a teleprompter.
“No, Dan, you obviously don’t understand. The point isn’t that he was or wasn’t polite, the point is he didn’t even attempt to sway me or ask why I wasn’t supporting obama. They have relagated to simply attempting to keep the voters they have as opposed to trying to reel in any they do not.
Telling indeed!”
Poor MMM. The polite Obama phone jockey wasn’t nasty to him. He didn’t try to change MMM’s mind about who to vote for. The guy on the phone was POLITE, for God’s sake. And that has denied MMM a chance to come on this blog and anonymously gloat about how MMM survived a phone call from the Obama campaign.
By now, others have already set you straight about the purpose of the call, MMM. I hope that didn’t bust your balloon of unwarranted assumptions too badly. Now, I expect, youre you’re going to try and nitpick OJ and Kristen to death about what they say is the true purpose behind the call.
Oh joy!
@47 – Sounds like you’re cracking a little. Relax.
No obama caller has ever been nasty to me. It’s just that 3 weeks ago, they asked why I wasn’t voting for obama. I asked them how long was obama a senator (they couldn’t answer). I asked them how much has the deficit increased under obama (they couldn’t tell me). I asked them where did obama go to college at (they had no idea). So I refused to tell them why I wasn’t voting for him since they obviously knew nothing about the man they were calling about.
Now, they have stopped pretending to know about the person they are calling and supporting and now simply going after the people who already support obama to make sure they stay in camp.
The next time they call, I will tell them I’m voting for obama and ask why I should not support Romney. Will post all the deets here afterwards! This should be fun!
So they are calling looking for volunteers? Seems if someone WANTED to volunteer for helping obama try to come back in this election they would just go and volunteer… and not have to be called and begged to volunteer.
Eerie.
Dan seems a little miffed that the numbers in his post above are incorrect (and not updated). By now others have set him straight. But I bet that won’t keep him from standing by it.. just like the decline of Rush post.
Lmao. Romney brought up Big Bird ONCE in the debate, to make a point about taxpayers unnecessarily funding the Corporation of Public Broadcasting to the tune of nearly half a billion dollars each year. But now Dear Leader has turned this into a major campaign issue and is running ads on the subject–against the wishes of Sesame Street Workshop that has asked the Obama campaign to stop using Big Bird as a political ploy. You just can’t make this stuff up! Heck even MSNBC is telling Obummer to stop with the Big Bird crap.
In other news, RCP just registered another small uptick for Mitt, from 0.7 to 0.8.
Actually, Dan, Kristen claimed they were looking for volunteers. OJ said when he used to do it, he was looking for undecided voters or people that were already supporting GOP to remind them to get out and vote.
So who is right, Dan? OJ or Kristen?
“Actually, Dan, Kristen claimed they were looking for volunteers. OJ said when he used to do it, he was looking for undecided voters or people that were already supporting GOP to remind them to get out and vote.
So who is right, Dan? OJ or Kristen?”
Either or both. You’re the one who’s wrong, though. Sorry.
Volunteer callers (from both parties) are given a script to follow and are asked not to deviate from the script or to argue or debate with the people being called. Anybody who doesn’t know or understand that is either a political novice or a nitpicker. If I am called by volunteers from a candidate I oppose, I politely tell them that I am supporting another person, thank them for their interest and end the call. We should be pleased that there are people who are interested enough to become involved in this important process and take their time to engage other people. Robocalls, however, are another issue .
#57 I warned you all a couple of days ago that MMM was headed back into another weird snitty phase. Here he is yet again arguing back when somebody who knows what they’re talking about explains something. It doesn’t matter that MMM hasn’t the vaguest idea what’s happening and has no facts whatsoever, he must argue anyway. Sad, sad, sad.
Does it occur to you Marked that different volunteers at different times might be doing different things, but that there are perfectly legitimate reasons they wouldn’t try to sway your vote?
Obama is working hard to save Big Bird. He didn’t work on so hard for his ambassador in Libya.
Shrillary: Frank Beckmann is a fine play by play announcer. And that’s all he is. As a commentator, he is just another right wing shill.
hey ol’ dano,
Judging from your “excitable” posts…particularly #48…, methinks its time for you to run another load of laundry. Phew! You know, you should always have clean underwear on…
hey ol’ dano, Romney DOES have a health care plan. It’s not obumacare.
hey Marked Man, I look forward to reading your posts about the obmuma callers! I had one on the line for about 25 minutes, and at the end of the conversation, I think she was starting to have her doubts about obuma. I really enjoyed that call.
I don’t find it all that odd that a campaign caller wouldn’t have a bunch of information readily available to answer various questions about a candidate’s personal history, or certain other specifics. When working on the GOP campaigns I was involved in, aside from short bio descriptions of the candidates, we mainly had a bulleted list of key platform issues they were highlighting as a part of their campaign, that we were to use in talking to potential voters. Many campaign volunteers were high school students, actually, who were energized and enthusiastic about being involved…if not nearly as well informed as the adult volunteers and retirees who were helping on the campaigns.
Down in Virginia Beach (in the 90′s), the key issues tended to focus around military funding, veteran support, keeping taxes low, fiscal responsibility, and improving government efficiency. There were several Democrats in the area who likewise supported those agenda items, so it was tough to unseat incumbent Democrats who were favorable toward many of the same items in the military-heavy region…like former Representative Owen Pickett, whom we tried to defeat several times. He was popular, on several defense/military committes in Congress, and frequently won 60-70% of the vote, despite Virginia Beach leaning Republican for practically every other race in election years. It made for tough work to sway voters, when they would support Bush, Bush, Dole, John Warner, George Allen, Jim Gilmore, etc in national or statewide elections…but then vote for a Democrat for the US House.
Leon do you read? Except for RW media, all the news outlets, including the kind you have to actually read, have reported on the the volumes of lies presented in the 90 minute debate last Wednesday. Fact checkers couldn’t keep up. Romney isn’t a flip flopper he’s a liar – proficient at “lying for the Lord” – he says one thing on Tuesday then completely repudiates his own statements on Wednesday. He seems to have an inability to tell the truth.
Your rejection of reality is truly pitiful. Romney is a liar just as Ryan is…why otherwise is Ryan reminding everyone that he lies, and will be called out on it? it is called inoculating…
Comment by Shrillary — October 9, 2012 @ 9:47 pm
Shrill,
I don’t give a rats ding dong about your opinion and broad labeling of Romney/Ryan. In my prior post I challenged you for specific incidents or
lies. You deliver the same broad labeling as before. This is an old liberal / alinsky trick…tell the same lie often and eventually some will
believe it. Perhaps your excuse is that you learned this from Dan who employs the same technique…no specifics only the broad label.
For every lie you can provide specifics on for Romney / Ryan I’ll give you
two that Obama has dished out…and with Obama…he lied; people died.
@28 Comment by Frank — October 9, 2012 @ 10:33 pm
“At a little over 2 posts per hour on this thread, the libs seem to be pretty distraught…sluggish even….maybe they’re having a bad day as well….all because of being jilted by some poller people, and because obuma had an atrociously bad debate. Go figure.”
What a small little life you must have, counting and dividing posts by the hour…did it ever occur to you that “libs” have lives and more important things to do than try to enlighten you and fact check your distortions?…which, btw, would entail a full time job – which I believe most “libs” on Dan’s blog already actually have…
Big Bird
I am very happy Team 0bama keeps bringing up Big Bird because that reminds people of his disastrous debate and reinforces the 0bama is frivolous. I don’t know what 25-year-old staffer is putting together the ads, but keep it up!
“Either or both. You’re the one who’s wrong, though. Sorry.”
Ooooh, Dan sounds a LOT miffed.
I said that the caller didn’t try to sway my vote because they obviously were calling and trying to make sure that if I supported obama, that I would keep it that way.
That is essentially what OJ said, who Dan said was correct.
Guess Dan is the one that is wrong. Busted to pieces by OJ.
#57 There’s also a third answer-who gives a crap?
Sure, Kristen. It also occurs that what I said the caller did was exactly what OJ described he used to do.
Snitty and nitpicky sounds more like Dan saying I am wrong and OJ is right even though the same exact thing happened.
All the questions I asked (how long was he a senator, how much has the deficit increased, etc) SHOULD be important info that a volunteer representing a candidate SHOULD know as they go to directly supporting the candidate’s political background IMHO…
How else would a caller be able to convince the obama-leaning recipient of said call to go out and cast that vote?? By discussing promises not yet unkept as most of his others have been?
“Big Bird
I am very happy Team 0bama keeps bringing up Big Bird because that reminds people of his disastrous debate and reinforces the 0bama is frivolous. I don’t know what 25-year-old staffer is putting together the ads, but keep it up!”
Right. It is much classier to pimp a non-existent friendship with a dead Navy SEAL for political gain, like Romney’s doing.
“At a little over 2 posts per hour on this thread, the libs seem to be pretty distraught…”
Well Frank, you can hardly expect us to keep up with your 3 posts in 6 minutes. On this thread.
Frank, I had one obama caller believing that obama had withdrew his name from the ballot in Virginia and asked her if she was even watching the news over the last hour.
She said, “Really?? Why did he do that I wonder??” And then apologized for calling me.
Romney up to 0.8 in the RCP average.
obama down to 0.3 in Ohio, Virginia, and soon to be Nevada.
Romney now leading in Colorado 0.5
Right. It is much classier to pimp a non-existent friendship with a dead Navy SEAL for political gain, like Romney’s doing.
Do you have proof of your accusation Romney didn’t meet this Navy SEAL?
“Right. It is much classier to pimp a non-existent friendship with a dead Navy SEAL for political gain, like Romney’s doing.”
By the way, speaking of the dead Navy SEAL (and others), how is that investigation going? Yeah…
Today is brought to you by —- the letters O, M and G.
Obama Must Go
Sesame Street – the first show to teach kids that being a single mother living in a tenement building is something to aspire to. Along with hanging out with guys who live in trash cans. LOL
“Do you have proof of your accusation Romney didn’t meet this Navy SEAL?”
Read the account, Suzie. Romney apparently didn’t remember meeting the guy three times in 20 minutes at a Christmas party he and Ann blundered into. Because he shook the SEAL’s hand four times in half-an-hour, each time intorducing himself as “Mitt Romney, a political figure.” Jeez, but it sure fits.
Will R, congrats. Just when I think the right on here can’t get weirder, you post something actually ANTI Sesame Street. And you honestly think such nuttiness is mainstream?
The debate showed that Obama is an empty suit without his teleprompter. He stumbled and mumbled, then bowed his head in submission. He couldn’t even look at the man, (R-MONEY), who had exposed him as “just a teleprompter reader.” Obama might win the election, but he will never be perceived as intelligent. He’ll be known as the guy who could read the teleprompter but couldn’t think on his feet.
For the next debate, Obama’s handlers will probably have him give R-MONEY the same “laser like focus” he was using to create jobs. LOL, Obama is already a Jimmy Carter-like punchline!
“Will R, congrats. Just when I think the right on here can’t get weirder, you post something actually ANTI Sesame Street. And you honestly think such nuttiness is mainstream?”
Next up, Will R will eviscerate Teletubbies.
Hey Mark, politics aside for a moment, I’m thinking of heading out to the Meadows this Sunday since the weather looks to be pretty nice, you interested? I haven’t played since July when I messed up my hand on a tee shot I caught fat, so I’m hoping to get a couple rounds in before the weather turns too cold.
I’d love to OJ but we are giving our daughter a birthday party this Sunday. I hate how it’s getting dark so much earlier now too. Ugh! We definitely will have to get out again sometime though,
Actually MM @77 Gallup had the President down 49% R – 47% O – in a sampling spanning Oct. 2-8.
However, preferences tilt the other way among registered voters, 49% vs. 46% in Obama’s favor.
http://www.gallup.com/poll/157955/romney-obama-among-likely-voters.aspx
But today’s Gallup poll [LV] has the President gaining again to tie Romney as Romney’s “bounce” begins to fade.
http://www.gallup.com/poll/157817/election-2012-likely-voters-trial-heat-obama-romney.aspx
And today’s FL poll
UNF Fla poll: Obama 49, Romney 45
http://www.tampabay.com/blogs/the-buzz-florida-politics/content/florida-poll-obama-49-romney-45
And the President continues to lead in PA and OH…I suggest you will need to tamp down your excitement so you don’t crash and burn on Nov 6th…
Well that is certainly more important than a round of golf! Perhaps the following weekend? As far as I know, I have nothing planned at this point for either day. But yeah, getting dark early really crimps things. We had a golf league at the CRC this year that was trying to extend through the month, but 2 weeks of rainouts and they finally called the end the season, because darkness was cutting off the groups about 2-3 holes short of finishing. It’s a shame too, I was finally able to swing a club without pain. I’ve also got a round to play with one of the guys from the Weather Journal blog, that we’ve been trying to set up since last month!
37.“I will give it to you though. The Obama lapdogs in the media are earning their keep. If Obama doesn’t win, it sure won’t be due to lack of effort from you guys. Every day, attack, attack, attack. Romney this and Romney that…”
How cute. Chuck is already making excuses for Obama’s win next month.
Comment by Dan Casey — October 10, 2012 @ 8:51 am
That is not a denial…..
Never said he wasn’t leading in Ohio or Pennsylvania, Shrill… merely that his lead is evaporating. You do realize that if you look at the Electotral map with no toss ups, obama wins. IF obama loses VA (+0.3) and Ohio (+0.8), obama goes back to organizing communities, right?
Has obama been gaining ground in Ohio and Virginia for the last week, Shrill?
#78 “Right. It is much classier to pimp a non-existent friendship with a dead Navy SEAL for political gain, like Romney’s doing.
Do you have proof of your accusation Romney didn’t meet this Navy SEAL?”
So let’s see, meeting a person and having a friendship are the same? Good lord, suzie, can you get any more dishonest?
MM @90 yes, if, if, if, if, if….I don’t relate to the “if” theory, I like the reality of numbers…
In reality, there is no easy road for Romney to win the presidency without OH, PA, FL – all states he must win and presently not ahead in any. Odds are still against Romney…
“The forecast model is not quite ready to jump on board with the notion that the race has become a literal toss-up; Mr. Romney will need to maintain his bounce for a few more days, or extend it into high-quality polls of swing states, before we can be surer about that.” http://www.towleroad.com/2012/10/nate-silver-presidential-race-nearing-a-toss-up.html#ixzz28vmK428x
The following reminds me of the saying among political strategist / consultants, years ago, “Voters are like radishes, there is a new crop every 14 days.” That is, their memory of issues events is about 14 days.
Now we have, “Treating presidential polls as gospel is a little like placing political faith in the lifespan of a fruit fly.”
http://tinyurl.com/97tzdkl
**
Numbers overload: Polling data hype sways voters
By Halimah Abdullah, CNN
updated 3:10 PM EDT, Tue October 9, 2012
STORY HIGHLIGHTS
o Polls are snapshots in time, yet the impact lasts longer
o Polls differ depending on what’s asked, who’s asked, and when questions are asked
o Voter opinions influenced by media attention on the numbers
SNIP
**
hey Marked Man, LOL!
hey shrill,
That was quite some shriek you just emitted. and, I’m certainly glad you and others are working, shriek, oops, er, shrill. Nevertheless, it’s been a slow slog on this blog, and I just kinda figured you and your ilk aren’t as smug these days, as in days past, as you contemplate the possibilities…
Poor Frank and his ramblings and his apparent delusion that I care what he says….
“Poor Frank and his ramblings and his apparent delusion that I care what he says….”
I know, right! Like you would even respond if you didn’t care.
Umm Shrill, Romney will be ahead in Fla. by later today or tomorrow.
Currently, under the no toss ups map, Romney can take VA and OH and win.
BTW, where did all the blue-hoo go, Shrill?
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/2012_elections_electoral_college_map.html
MM – hate to burst your bubble, but the latest polls released today indicate your prediction is wrong, but, maybe tomorrow?
* FLORIDA: Obama 48%, Romney 47% (NBC/WSJ)
* OHIO: Obama 51%, Romney 45% (NBC/WSJ)
* OHIO: Obama 48%, Romney 47% (Rasmussen)
* VIRGINIA: Romney 48%, Obama 47% (NBC/WSJ)
* VIRGINIA: Obama 51%, Romney 46%(Quinnipiac)
* COLORADO: Romney 48%, Obama 47% (Quinnipiac)
* WISCONSIN: Obama 50%, Romney 47% (Quinnipiac)
* NORTH CAROLINA: Romney 51%, Obama 48% (Rasmussen)
* NEVADA: Obama 47%, Romney 45% (Suffolk)
“Umm Shrill, Romney will be ahead in Fla. by later today or tomorrow.”
Yep, you were right, Marked. RCP now has Romney up +1.4 in Florida. And a new Florida poll conducted by TBT/Herald/Mason-Dixon for the Miami Herald and Tampa Bay Times has Romney up +7. Yikes.
matt – the polls listed above are the most recent polling through this afternoon…where is Romney ahead in Florida in the most RECENT poll? Wishing something to be true doesn’t make it so.
“Polls are just snapshots of what is happening in Reality. And reality has a well-known liberal bias.”
Stephen Colbert
Shrilly,
In my last post, I told you which polling firm conducted the poll. I also told you who the poll was conducted for. Did you even bother to look it up before you went all Shrilly in #101? It was released today, and, according to RCP, it is the most up-to-date Florida poll since it included data from 10/10/12. The other Florida polls listed only included data up to 10/9/12. That includes the NBC/WSJ Florida poll you reference in #99 (according to RCP). But I’m sure it was merely an accident on your part to not include it in your “most recent” polls release. Either way, here is the link. You’re welcome.
http://www.miamiherald.com/2012/10/11/3045712/poll-strong-debate-helps-mitt.html
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/fl/florida_romney_vs_obama-1883.html
Thanks for the update matt.