Pick the winner in Tuesday’s election and win a prize
The big election begins in less than 24 11 hours has begun and it’ll end when the polls close in Hawaii. But we may know the outcome before then. Who’s going to win? That’s the big question — but it’s too easy.
So here’s our contest challenge:
1. Name the winner and the number of electoral votes he’ll take; and
2. Specify his percentage in the state of Virginia to one decimal place; and
3. A tiebreaker (if necessary): Specify his percentage in the city of Roanoke to on decimal place. Hint: Obama took the city with 61.1 percent in 2008.
Your entries should look like this:
Romney, 271, Virginia: 50.4, Roanoke: 47.8
Your deadline is 6 p.m. Tuesday, which is an hour before the polls close in Virginia.
The person who comes closest will win a book from Dan’s Bookshelf and become the reigning political prognosticator of this blog.
And here’s how I’ll score it:
I’ll tally scores of all entrants who chose the winner in the race for the White House like this:
(Number of electoral votes they were off) + (percentage they missed Virginia by).
The LOW score wins the prize. If two or more entrants have identical low scores, the tiebreaker will be whoever is closest in the Roanoke city prediction.
November 5, 2012 - 8:24 PM
Obama-284
49.5%
58.4%
Obama, 307, Virgina 50.7, Roanoke 52.8
BO will win. That’s certain. But I’m not playing the game however I’ll predict his victory in two ways. With a total vote for the two at 125 million or more his popular margin will be 9 million or MORE. If the total drops to 120 million or less he’ll win by no fewer than 6 million popular votes.
Want an interesting read on how the Arab world view your guy? Read this.
http://www.bikyamasr.com/80179/obamas-empire-the-arab-and-muslim-world/
Oh yes, want greater restrictions on your personal liberty? Want an even higher degree of socialism? Want higher across the board taxes for ANYONE who actually pays them? Want to drive more businesses overseas with the even higher corporate rates (currently in the top 3 (?)in the world)? Then vote D. Funny part here is that I’m actually just a regular middle income guy. Why in the world do I want to keep trying to make my own way in life. Gettin’ older too so maybe I should just go on and file that claim for disability. All this work makes my back hurt AND has caused emotional problems. I’m sure there are many libs out there who will agree with that! I think I want the government to start taking care of me. Can someone tell me again how to get the free cell phone. I’m callin in sick and voting D!
Obama, 286, Virginia: 47.8, Roanoke: 57.3
Obama, 307, Virginia: 49.9, Roanoke: 58.9
Obama, 301, Virginia: 49.3, Roanoke: 59.5
I’ve crunched through a ton of polls, and it looks to me that it will be:
1. Obama 290, Romney 248
2. Virginia 47.9% (but Romney wins VA, barely)
3. Roanoke 58.6%
As of now, no other posts are showing.
Obama, 319, Virginia: 49.8, Roanoke: 58.2
Romney – 307, Virginia 51.8, Roanoke 50.5
Do you have Nate Silver Eats Crow on your bookshelf?
Obomba, 305, Virginia 52.0, Roanoke 60.0 (P.S. Yesterday at Mac & Bob’s was a pleasant afternoon!)
Romney 331
Virginia 52.1
Roanoke 51.6
I also believe this is the LEAST important election in decades. It rivals Clinton/Dole for meaningless results. The major importance is Congress.
Obama 303, Virginia 50.5, Roanoke 58
Obama 290, Vriginia 49.1, Roanoke 57.2
I’m voting for Virgil Goode. He’s the only one that I can carry on my conscience, and I believe in his views.
Obama 305, VA 50.2, Roanoke 59
Romney 313, Virginia 47.4, Roanoke, 38.6
Obama 281, Virginia 47.4, Roanoke 54.4
Obama: 303
Obama: Virginia: 48%
Obama: Roanoke City: 61.5%
1. Romney 310 electoral votes
2. Romney 48.9 % Virginia
3. Obama – Roanoke City 57.6%
Obama 299, Virginia 51%, Roanoke 60%
Obama: 303, Virginia 49.9, Roanoke 59.6
Please note for any additional unannounced tie-breaker purposes that Obama’s 49.9% wins VA because of votes for the 3rd party candidates and causes all the RWers to declare that Obama didn’t really win VA because the majority voted against him … or some kind of crazy stuff.
Obama 288
VA. 48.8
ROA 53.7
Obama 303
Va 50.1
Roa 57.3
btw Obama wins Va and Roa.
Dan, just out of curiosity, how are you planning to determine the winner from answers with units of EVs and %’s and names? The porn method? i.e. You’ll know it when you see it? How many % off in the Virginia vote can you be for each EV you’re off? Maybe 1 EV = 0.1% ? And does the contest winner have to have chosen both the correct national and state winner(s)?
Dave,
This is how I’ll do it:
1) If Obama wins, then I’ll only consider the Obama guesses (and vice-versa if Romney wins).
2) Looking at those, I’ll determine who was off by how much in their EV vote predictions. I’ll then add how much folks were off by their Virginia percentages.
Thus, if you were off 2 in EVs and .3 on your Va prediction, you’d get a score of 2.3. (You don’t have to name the Va winner; that will be accounted for by the % you’re off.)
3. The person with the lowest combined number will win. If there’s more than one person with that number, then we’ll go to the tiebreaker, and the person closest in that will win.
4. If there’s still a tie, we’ll have 2 winners.
Romney 317, Virginia 63.7%, Roanoke 56.3%
Romney 286, VA 52.5% and Roanoke 47.3%
Obama 303, VA 51.1, Roanoke 58.7
Obama: 290, VA: 48.7%, Roanoke: 59.3%
Dan,
Don’t forget the Burka when Walking Eagle becomes a loser.
Romney 309, Virginia 52.4, Roanoke, 49.8
Obama – 303 EV Virginia – 49.3% Roanoke – 57.9%
Obama 307, Virginia 50.1% Roanoke 56.6%
Obama: 303
Virginia: 51.8%
Roanoke: 48.4%
Romney 282 electoral votes
Virginia 57.7%
Roanoke 52.2%
EC- Obama 290
VA- Obama 51.2%
Roanoke- Obama 49.9%
I’ve been wondering about the absence of discussion in this election of the Bradley effect. Maybe some pollsters assume it is less of a factor than it may have been previously, but I’m not so sure it isn’t still happening with Obama to some degree, possibly moreso than it it might have in ’08.
I’m sorry, I meant that post for the open thread!
Obama, 301, Virginia 59.9, Roanoke 57%
Obama 271
Virginia 50.6 Obama
Roanoke Romney 51.9
EC: Obama – 303
VA: Obama – 49.8%
RKE: Obama – 54.7%
Thought provoking Warren… Here’s one back at ya… What about the suffrage effect?
The Christian Nazi Party (Republicans) have made so many women feel inferior (and afraid to speak their minds), that I predict many who say they are voting for Royalty will instead pick Obomba.
Tell someone they’re different… Okay, fine. But tell them they’re inferior and watch the backlash swell. I think the pollsters are way wrong, and while the election will be closer than 2009, it’s nowhere near the dead heat they’re hyping.
OBAMA- 293
Virginia- 49.4
Roanoke- 51.3
Obama: 304, Obama: 51.4%, roanoke: 57.6
Please change my previous submission
EC- Obama 303
VA- 49.1
Roa-51.1
Obama 299
VA 48.6
RKE 51.0
I am at Williamson Road #1, Oakland School. Long line but at least everyone is inside. I’ve moved about 30 ft in 15 minutes. No harassment from anyone thus far.
Obama 315 – Virginia 50.4% – Roanoke 63.5%
Romney, 271, Virginia: 52.6, Roanoke: 48.9
romney 285 va 51.3 roanoke 38.2
Obama 332, Va. 51.7, Roanoke 58.9
Obama 290 – Virginia 42% – Roanoke 54%
Obama 303, Virginia 51.0%, Roanoke 60.7%
Gasp… I hope I’m wrong!
OK Dan. If Obama’s lead holds up in Florida, I’ll have the EC vote right on the nose!. Oh ye of little faith!
@Paddy: “Do you have Nate Silver Eats Crow on your bookshelf?”
Make sure to pick the feathers out of your teeth, Paddy. Nate Silver was, if anything, too conservative.
It’s intriguing. Heading into the election, state polls all indicated that Romney would have a very difficult time reaching 270. Republicans on this thread, though, by and large predicted him winning more than 300 electoral college votes.
Instead, Obama will likely end up with 332 EC votes.
Republicans, meet reality. Reality … Republicans. You guys needed an introduction a long time ago.