“I note that you had no reply when asked by Dan if you have children. Wonder why.”

Perhaps Doto IS Suzie….. Hopefully BOTH of those trunks will never bear another branch.

The bulls-eye or sharpshooter fallacy is the result of trying to apply formulas to events or data that are not random, when those formulas were developed and are only valid for calculating probability and/or degree of certainty in randomly generating events or to random samples of randomly distributed data.

In the case an election, the cherry-picked data clusters to suit one’s argument (or finding a pattern to fit a presumption) fits the fallacy even were the total data random.

Finding such clusters is to be expected — given the likely causation being the results of something (say demographics, economic stratification, legitimate politic ground game, the other party having written off the precinct, etc. ) and to be totally unrelated to Suzie’s assumption/argument (fraud).

332>206
51%>48%
62,615,406>59,142,004

A little heavier concentration in History, Political Science, Sociology, Psychology (be careful here), Ethics, Biology, and Religion amy help you understand the world in which you live.

Go back and read Screwzie’s first Thanksgiving message.
Now go back and read her second message.
No mention of God in her first message.

This is what Contra spends his Thanksgiving Day digging up.

Posted on November 22nd, 2012″

By not denying she’s a Communist, Screwzie admits to being a Communist.

gdad, we’d better cut Doto a break. After all, look at the products (#44) that according to him he’ll be boycotting now: Estee Lauder, Liz Claiborne, Guess, Seagram’s, Gallo Wine, Sonic, and undergarments.

So, as he’s told us himself, Obama’s reelection for Dohto is gonna mean foregoing his usual shots of whiskey with a box wine chaser after his meal from Sonic while wearing women’s clothes, perfume, and no undergarments. But those who love liberty as much as he does are willing to make the hard sacrifices to protect America from the gays!

BTW, Dolto, I have two children, so i already procreated. With my wife of 33 years. I note that you had no reply when asked by Dan if you have children. Wonder why.

“Wonder if someone here will do a pseudo probability analysis of that happening w/o fraud?….Am I the only person in here who has ever studied advanced math?”

I have a friend who might be game for this. He’s a somewhat famous statistician. I’ll drop him a line.

Steve C, I cannot burn that story out of my mind.

From your mouth.