Thursday’s column: On the bus, headed for a ‘fiscal cliff’
Grafic by Dan
The big election is now more than a week past, but there still are some lingering questions out there.
One of the big ones is whether Congress and the White House can forge a sensible deal to reduce the annual budget deficit, which these days tops an unsustainable $1 trillion. That’s the “fiscal cliff” you’ve heard so much about in the media.
To explore this issue I spoke this week with Nicolaus Tideman, who for 39 years has taught economics at Virginia Tech. Early in his career, he also served as senior staff economist for the President’s Council of Economic Advisors.
I also sought some to put some questions to western Virginia’s House congressional delegation — Reps. Bob Goodlatte, R-Roanoke County; Morgan Griffith, R-Salem; and Robert Hurt, R-Chatham. But I was far less successful in that endeavor.
If an agreement isn’t reached on the budget, huge and automatic budget cuts would take effect early next year. Meanwhile, tax cuts Congress enacted in 2001 and 2003 would automatically expire for everyone, so everyone’s taxes will increase.
It would mean much less government spending, and less consumer spending, too, because those tax increases will take money out of everyone’s pockets. That will hurt businesses. That’s the so-called “fiscal cliff.”
The nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office says it would push this nation into another recession. Tideman agrees with their assessment.
But he also said that despite the hype you hear in the news lately, the fears are to a certain extent overblown. In the short term, “I think that relatively little will happen,” he said.
That’s not because the consequences of inaction are unfounded, Tideman added. Rather, it’s because the notion of long-term inaction on the issue by our elected leaders in Washington is pretty much inconceivable.
READ THE REST OF THIS COLUMN HERE.
November 15, 2012 - 6:00 AM
It’s really quite simple. What the three will do is nothing. they’ll do NOTHING, which will mean the budget gets slashed – what they like, and taxes will be raised – but they can claim they never took action to raise taxes, thus giving them cover with their knuckle dragging fan base.
The fiscal ‘cliff’ can only be avoided by action. So, to undermine it, they’ll choose inaction. They’ll do nothing, and then no one can say that they voted for a tax increase, and their phony pledges will remain unbroken.
Maybe Harry Reid and his magic underwear can save us.
The House was sent to Washington with a mandate not to increase taxes. Let’s see if 0bama put his leftwing ideology over the good of the nation and demand tax increases on the achievers which have been shown to reduce the deficit only slightly.
#3 Of course it wasn’t.
The libs are about to get a civics lesson. Congress write the laws…not the president.Good luck getting your cherished tax increase out of that bunch.
“It’s really quite simple. What the three will do is nothing. they’ll do NOTHING, which will mean the budget gets slashed – what they like, and taxes will be raised – but they can claim they never took action to raise taxes, thus giving them cover with their knuckle dragging fan base.
The fiscal ‘cliff’ can only be avoided by action. So, to undermine it, they’ll choose inaction. They’ll do nothing, and then no one can say that they voted for a tax increase, and their phony pledges will remain unbroken.”
crooked road,
You may be right in describing their thinking. But don’t believe for a minute that they will be held blameless. Goodlatte and Hurt voted to set up the fiscal cliff scenario (Griffith voted against it). Now, if they allow the bus to roll off that cliff, without applying the brakes at all, in a way that causes a huge tax increase on EVERYONE, after they swore in writing that they would vote against any tax increase, that will come back to haunt them.
It’s the same as a parent who allows a toddler to play in the street during rush hour. When the kid gets hit/killed, the parent is guilty of negligence. Nobody jury wants to hear the protests, “I didn’t put my child in that street! I didn’t drive that car! I’m blameless!”
“The libs are about to get a civics lesson. Congress write the laws…not the president.Good luck getting your cherished tax increase out of that bunch.”
There is definitely going to be a tax increase, terps. The only question is, on who? Reps. Goodlatte, Griffith and Hurt are aware of this, and they know that their only two choices are tax increases for all, or tax increases for some.
You saying they’re going to choose the tax increases for all path.
Dan, you’re overly optimistic. Morgan Griffith will be re-elected for his House seat a minimum of TEN more times, if he chooses to stay that long. Neither of us like it, but both of us should acknowledge it. I certainly always have, and I said it before Griffith was elected the first time, thanks to the myopia of some on here who now regret their votes for him.
The myopia of the vast majority of the 9th District is focused solely on the propagation of the coal industry & racist fear mongering, not to mention all the lovely black lung-type ‘benefits’ therein. The lower middle class blue collar workers of the 9th District vote OVERWHELMINGLY conservative, despite the fact that virtually every conservative plank of the GOP platform negatively impacts their very social & economic existence. They essentially shoot themselves in the groin every time they pull the lever for the GOP, and they’ll keep pulling that lever until they bleed out. Plain & simple.
Dan
Your lust to see the rich suffer may be a long wait. Unless you take a cue from the French Revolution and physically kill them, the rich will always find ways around your taxes that will hurt the poor and middle class much more.(take a peek at Greece)
A Mark Twain quote sums up the libs on the blog quite well:
” It is much easier to fool someone than convince them they have been fooled.”
Knowing there are quite a few of math challenged RWers on Dan’s blog – especially those who continue to doubt the polling science that made their candidate a “shell shocked” loser…. I am willing to provide this link in the hope you will not continue to post the NON-Fact that Americans don’t want the wealthy to pay their fair share…
Polled on election night:
Six in 10 voters nationwide [*for the math challenged, that is 60% - a percentage greater than 50%] say they think taxes should be increased, a welcome statistic for President Barack Obama and a sign that the president’s attacks on Mitt Romney’s proposed tax cuts for the wealthy may have been effective
[...]
Only about a third of voters said taxes should not be increased at all, the exit polls showed.
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1112/83429.html#ixzz2CJAtB0Ym
Now 60% is a larger percentage than 331/3%, in case you don’t already know that…
“the rich will always find ways around your taxes that will hurt the poor and middle class much more…”
Then why all the whining.
“Dan
Your lust to see the rich suffer may be a long wait. Unless you take a cue from the French Revolution and physically kill them, the rich will always find ways around your taxes that will hurt the poor and middle class much more.(take a peek at Greece)
A Mark Twain quote sums up the libs on the blog quite well:
“It is much easier to fool someone than convince them they have been fooled.”
terps, buddy, you’ve got my head spinning here. Yesterday you said Greece was in trouble because they confiscated all the rich folk’s wealth. Today you’re suggesting Greece is in trouble because the rich folks there figured out ways to avoid having Greece confiscate their wealth. In other words, the country’s FAILURE to confiscate that wealth has led to its problems. Which, of course, suggests that if Greece HAD confiscated that wealth, the country might be in better shape fiscally.
It’s like you’re on a merry go round, with a .22, plunking away at everything that even MIGHT be a tin can, as it goes round and round. Careful! One of these days you’re gonna hit a tin-foil hatted TPer in the head.
As the for the Twain quote, it PERFECTLY sums up the Romney campaign’s belief in its own electoral inevitability.
10 Only taxpayers should be allowed to determine if taxes should be raised or not. Leeches should have no say.
“” It is much easier to fool someone than convince them they have been fooled.””
Great quote terps.
I might ask you if your disparaging view of Nate Silver’s statistical analysis might put in the category of the those who had been fooled. I said all along if he was wrong, I’d change my view of his methodology. Doesn’t look like I am going to have to though.
terps… I believe this Twain quote sums up yourself and pretty much every conservative on this blog.
“It is better to remain silent and be thought a fool than to open one’s mouth and remove all doubt.”
-Mark Twain
I personally prefer this Mark Twain quote:
“Sometimes I wonder whether the world is being run by smart people who are putting us on or by imbeciles who really mean it.” –Mark Twain
It is categorically insane to say that a return to the Clinton era tax rates will cause even one rich person to “suffer”. That is asinine, childish, ignorant and wrong all rolled into one. Pitiful.
No one wants ANYONE to “suffer”, but the cuts we will all have to endure should and will be balanced by more revenue from those who have prospered as we have not.
Get used to it. And stop whining.
@Suzie: “The House was sent to Washington with a mandate not to increase taxes.”
There were more votes for Democrats for the House than for Republicans. Only gerrymandering allowed House Republicans to retain their majority. They have no mandate, only a 9 percent approval rating.
I think this one from Twain suits the moment:
“If we would learn what the human race really is at bottom, we need only observe it in election times.”
- Mark Twain’s Autobiography
You right wingers have lost the already tenuous grip you had on reality.
“There were more votes for Democrats for the House than for Republicans.”
Interesting. Got a link to those numbers?
Here you go, Dan.
only a 9 percent approval rating.
More Bedwetter Silver minutiae that means squat since the GOP reclaimed the House.
By the way, good column. Keep after our “representatives” and keep trying to make them answer to the people they’re supposed to serve.
Another take. The “fiscal cliff” is a hoax.
Too bad we can’t just charter a bus, put those three knotheads on it, find a convenient cliff, and send it on over it. And send Suzie over it with them.
Here’s a couple of different takes on the House vote, which the Democrats won by roughly 500,000 votes if you total all the races:
http://thinkprogress.org/justice/2012/11/07/1159631/americans-voted-for-a-democratic-house-gerrymandering-the-supreme-court-gave-them-speaker-boehner/
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/plum-line/post/gerrymanders-didnt-cost-democrats-the-house/2012/11/14/f3076e50-2e89-11e2-b631-2aad9d9c73ac_blog.html
So the House Democrats won the popular vote. Interesting.
Because space is not a limitation here, I reckon I should provide the statements emailed to me from Griffith’s and Goodlatte’s aides. Newsprint is expensive, and they were nonresponsive to the questions I wanted (but never got the opportunity) to ask to the congressmen. That’s why I didn’t bother to put them in the column.
Here’s the first, from Goodlatte, which his aide sent me at 5:07 p.m. Wednesday, following two emails I’d sent (beginning Monday) and two voicemails I’d left asking to talk to Goodlatte on the subject. It was a trick simply getting her to acknowledge these communications.
“I am committed to advancing pro-growth policies that create jobs and get our economy back on track. One of the contributing factors to our current economic crisis is our ever-increasing national debt. In order to avert the upcoming fiscal cliff we will have to work together to make some very tough but necessary decisions when it comes to government spending. Not only does this mean working to ensure that our entitlement programs function more efficiently but fundamental reform of our monstrous tax code is necessary. I believe raising marginal tax rates is a bad idea. We need fundamental, long-term tax reform which should include reforms like the elimination of tax deductions, credits and loopholes would result in an increase in economic growth.”
And here’s the one from Griffith’s aide — who was actually much more responsive, although she couldn’t get me on the phone with him either:
“Congress and the President must work together to get our economy growing again. If we don’t take immediate steps to address our crushing national debt and provide certainty for our job creators, Americans will suffer. In order to avoid the so-called fiscal cliff and casualties of sequestration, Congress must make tough decisions now regarding government spending and tax policy. All involved need to come to the table if we are going to get our economy moving in the right direction.”
“Cliche. Cliche. Campaign bs clich. Boilerplate BS. Yours truly.”
@Suze: “More Bedwetter Silver minutiae that means squat since the GOP reclaimed the House.”
They lost quite a few seats, though, and would have lost far more if not for gerrymandering. In the meantime, Democrats picked up seats in the Senate (since you can’t gerrymander entire states).
So, let’s see: Democrats won the presidency by convincing margins (Obama’s the first president to win more than 50 percent of the popular vote two times running since Reagan). They gained seats and kept their majority in the Senate, despite overwhelming odds (far more Democrats were up for re-election than Republicans), AND they took back seats in the House, winning more votes than Republicans nationwide, though gerrymandering kept them from actually taking back the majority.
And you want to claim it’s Republicans who have the mandate? Maybe Dan’s right. Maybe you are a comedian.
Whenever the Republicans are “worried” about something it’s generally their rich benefactor’s wallets. This is all about lowering corporate taxes and gutting the safety net.
OK,
So we go off the “fiscal cliff” and “everyone” pays more taxes…
Might some liberal enlighten me to the definition of “everyone”? Does this include the 50% that pays NO taxes? If so, grab my hand I am jumping…
OR…
Does it just mean us working saps that have found our disposable income slashed in the past 4 years by rising energy prices (approximately $2500 per) or rising food prices (20-40%)?
And the genius that is liberal, wants a NOVA couple (a teacher and a firefighter) to pony up another five to ten grand above these increases?
Why?… so that folks like sandi can either “feel good” that someone is paying her (or paying her share)(or maybe paying for her)?
An interesting quote from the myopic Sandi “those who have prospered as we have not.” Might be retorted by another myopic leftist “if you haven’t prospered you have a bad business model”.
We get the government we elect… obama had a “deal” but decided an “issue” was better to run on… congratulations… now “LEAD”.
Cliff… meet reality…
“Maybe you are a comedian.”
Jethrene isn’t known for a tight grasp of reality, but he’s really only begging for attention.
“So we go off the “fiscal cliff” and “everyone” pays more taxes…
Might some liberal enlighten me to the definition of “everyone”? Does this include the 50% that pays NO taxes?”
–Comment by mikeO
Wrong, wrong wrong. Everyone already pays taxes, mikeO. False equivalency alert!
I cannot understand people so preoccupied with what poor people do not pay and so completely uninterested in what rich people do not pay. I guess it is the Plutocracy mentality and you too believe they are better than we are.
I need some air. As if being poor or the working poor was not hard enough, you have to live with the disdain of the rich man’s boot-lickers.
I posted this on Facebook yesterday, but there are quite a few people here who could benefit from reading John Scalzi’s superb essay on “Being Poor.”