Note from Dan: Mark Jurkevich had to unexpectedly fly to Istanbul Sunday to tend to some affairs. While he’s gone, here’s a post of his from Feb. 2, 2011 (merely just an email to me) regarding the U.S., Israel and its 2010 invasion of Gaza, and the latter’s effect upon Egypt. Nine days later, President Hosni Mubarak was deposed. Civil unrest in Egypt continues.
By Mark Jurkevich (Feb. 2, 2011)
Assuming President Hosni Mubarak falls, this will pretty much wipe out the U.S./Israel long standing regional strategy, in my opinion
I believe the likely scenario to unfold would have a lot of parallels to the 1979 Iranian revolution (and for that matter the 1917 Russian revolution); first a transitional moderate government will flounder around for a few months and then a more ideological group will grab power on a long term basis. That latter group in this case will be controlled by the Muslim Brotherhood.
With that, the U.S. and Israel did not leave Mubarak, their “partner,” any good choices. In that sense, the Gaza invasion will likely prove to be a catastrophic strategic mistake for Israel and the U.S.
Ahhh, it seems that more and more frequently Israeli’s testosterone fueled decisions are turning into costly mishaps: the aggression on Lebanon, the war-crime filled invasion of Gaza, giant murder squads operating in United Arab Emirates.
I would welcome your thoughts on the subject.