May 7, 2008Why Nelson Harris went down: Is the answer in the data?What happened to Mayor Nelson Harris Tuesday? Check out the precinct-by-precinct results for the Roanoke Mayoral and City Council races still online at roanoke.com. I think part of the answer to that question is in those columns and rows if you peer into them long enough. Harris, a Democrat, split from his party and backed the independent “For the City” slate for Roanoke City Council in 2006. That ticket roared into office on the strength of victories limited almost exclusively to the populous and vote-rich Southwest quadrant of the city. It seemed precincts home to younger, middle- and upper-class Roanokers were ready to push progress in the city by choosing progressive council members. That set up the conventional wisdom in this election was that heavy turnout in those same precincts in South Roanoke, Raleigh Court and Lee Hi would favor Harris, and might even be enough to give him a victory. The theory didn’t hold up. Well, it held in the two South Roanoke precincts, where turnout hit 40 percent and 33 percent. Harris trounced Bowers there. In Raleigh Court and Lee Hi turnout well out-paced the city-wide average of 19 percent, but it didn’t help the mayor. Harris lost two of the five Raleigh Court precincts, and won the other three and Lee Hi by margins too modest to overcome the drubbing he took from Bowers elsewhere in the city. In other words, the vote turned out, but it didn’t turn out for Harris. What happened in two years? Sometimes a weak candidate can benefit from being on a ticket with stronger ones -- the proverbial coattails. That didn't seem to help Harris. The weakest of his Democratic ticket-mates, Court Rosen, polled a thousand more votes than Harris did. Sherman Lea, the top vote-getter of the night, grabbed 2,000 more votes than Harris. Why did so many people apparently step up to the voting machine and vote for Democrats running for council, but pass on Democrat running for mayor? Why did the voters who resoundingly chose David Trinkle, Gwen Mason and Alfred Dowe in 2006 desert Harris? Did council under his leadership really, as Harris is saying, push a reluctant, change-averse city too hard, too fast? Was all the talk of Harris and his council majority doing too much business in secret stick? Where did Harris cross the line? Was it the ampitheater? The $880,000 “loan” to developers for an apartment project in downtown? Look at where Harris did get vote: the wealthiest part of the city. Did too many voters come to view him as an elitest because he was favored by South Roanoke? Rosen won, but there’s an argument to be made from the numbers that in losing, Harris nearly dragged Rosen down with him. Rosen, an unknown at the time, ran away with the vote at the Democrats primary. Yet he just squeaked by incumbent Brian Wishneff by 102 votes to win a seat on council. His fellow Democrats, Sherman Lea and Anita Price, meanwhile, ran well all over the city, outpolling him by, in Lea’s case, 1,100 votes. Look at the results for Harris and Rosen, though. He lost to Wishneff in the same two Raleigh Court precincts in which Harris lost to Bowers. The “For the City” ticket carried those precincts handily in 2006. There was a concerted effort to link Rosen to Harris in the days before the election, most notably – and controversially – in an attack ad on Rosen that ran in The Roanoke Times and the Roanoke Star-Sentinel. Though Rosen was put on the ticket by voters in a primary, the ad claimed he was handpicked by Harris. I’m speculating, but the ad seems to have been born of the recognition that Harris was going down. It sought to chain Rosen to the mayor so they’d go down together. Is that what happened? I’ve got lots of data in here. Data’s facts, but in this case, they aren’t the whole story. We know the vote counts, but not the rational behind them. There are holes in the data. Help me fill them in. You’re a civic-minded city resident, and surely you voted, right? You tell me what happened in this election. |
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Comments
[May 7, 2008 4:52 PM]
LoriI voted for David Bowers and Valorie Garner, but no other candidate for council other than Ms. Garner. I was not impressed with any of the other candidates, and Brian Wishneff just comes off like a bully (proven by the article you referenced). Frankly, I felt that council and Mayor Harris were talking about unnecessary expenditures, like the amphitheater at the old Victory Stadium site, and developing Mill Mtn. I did vote for the "For the City" candidates, who of course ran on the "tear down Victory Stadium" platform, because that made sense - it was falling down and was built in a flood zone. Yet here we are just a few years later discussing building in the same flood prone site! And we have plenty of venues for music and arts - the Jefferson Center, the Civic Center, Mill Mountain Theater, just to name a few. I also felt as though council just did as they pleased without regard to what they citizens wanted. Instead of wasting money trying to attract people by building something, how about spending the money where we really need it? Increasing the graduation rate in our high schools? Putting money into other neighborhoods besides those on the south side of town?
[May 7, 2008 8:25 PM]
ValerieThank you Lori for your vote.
I will still be active in the community.
[May 7, 2008 10:46 PM]
Da veI think Harris lost for two reasons:
-Bowers had more signs. Seriously, the guy was everywhere. For every Harris sign I saw, I saw 10 Bowers signs.
-Too much change too fast. Poor ol' sleepy Roanoke seems content to die a slow, lingering death. I just hope the other council members can push along the agenda of progress we elected them to carry out and not let that retread Bowers slow them down.
If people don't like change, move to Covington. That's a painful vision of a potential future for Roanoke.
[May 8, 2008 10:08 AM]
LoriDave, Perhaps it was the changes that council was proposing that people didn't like? Seriously, building an amphitheater in a flood zone? Or building one at all! Why do we need it? A restaurant on Mill Mountain is going to be the big lure for workers and more employers? Riiight. How about some changes that make sense? It's not that all Roanokers are adverse to change, as some would think. I want all of Roanoke's citizens to feel safe in their neighborhoods (ask those over in the Melrose/Rugby neighborhood what they think of the City leadership), to have faith in our schools, and to be able to earn a living wage. Roanoke has some serious problems that putting up pretty buildings does not fix. How about making those changes first?
[May 8, 2008 11:56 AM]
Hank BostwickJust as we predicted the lower voter turn-out (down roughly 6% from 2006) pushed a new Mayor into office with a mere 10 or 11 percent of the eligible voters casting a ballot on Tuesday.
Increasing voter turn-out should be a project of significant importance between now and the next City election (November will be its own animal).
We can't say for certain if people wanted change, were hamstrung by apathy, or were disgusted by the charade and the mainstream media's decision to allow trivial issues to dominate the public conversation.
Whatever the reason, no one (except the dedicated few) cared enough to show up.
[May 8, 2008 4:38 PM]
DavidCould it be that Onzlee didn't deliver the votes that Nelson needed?
Could it be that those bitter Victory Stadium folks benefited from the low/no turnout?
[May 9, 2008 7:20 PM]
BUBBAHarris lost because of those that voted, more decided Bowers was the better option and that was driven by the way Harris conducted himself. Don't try to do an analysis any deepeer than that! Why "not like" Harris? Tons of reasons. Pick ANY issue and he is on the "unpopular" minority side but holds the majority position on council. Hank above better forget his struggle to get voters involved. As far as I am concerned IF they don't care why should it matter. Let then deal with the consequences of the decisions of those that do care and that effect the outcome of the elections. (More power for me!) Besides, getting people to the polls is really not the issue. The issue is getting them there with intelligent and meaningful information to make the proper decision. And thanks to such media outlets at the RT's, that will never happen. The voters are getting "dumber and dumber" all the time. I think things can be done by intelligent informed individuals even if they are in the minority, numbers wise. Uninformed voters also will simply tend to vote in a manner that represents what they feel will be favorable to them. Old people will vote to save medicare and increase drug benefits. Young people will vote to also increase drug benefits...as in making them legal. Cowards vote to end the war and Hawks vote to kill somebody. Religious conservatives vote to end abortion. "Poor" people will vote to tax those rich people and big corporations...so the liberal government can increase my entitlement. And another thing. Calling everything Harris tried to do as "progressive" is simply crap! No entity of government can push the peddle for progress beyond the ability of that entity to pay for what they want. Transformation happens from within. It is not constructed, paved, torn down or renovated. Years ago, people were very surprised to see a business plan for what became Honda Motor Company. Goals simplar to Ford, GM and the rest of the auto world but "Mr. Honda's plan encompassed a time span of 300 years. Look at where they were and are today. I think they are on track and will arrive. Roanoke City and voters in general are not on track and will not arrive. Now, go back to telling everyone whay Obama is so good for the country and McCain is so bad...and gimme another beer!