Here are the updated VHSL playoff points with breakdowns on a few teams.
I’ll add more analysis of teams in here as I work on them.
currently No. 5 in Group 6A South (Conferences 3 & 4)
PH could move up as many as two spots if the Patriots beat William Fleming. PH could pass Forest Park if FP loses to C.D. Hylton, and they could pass Colonial Forge if Forge loses to Riverbend. With a loss to William Fleming, PH could slip to No. 6 but it’s not likely. Remember, only eight teams from these two conferences qualify. Bottom line: PH needs Forest Park or Colonial Forge to lose in order to get a first-round game at home.
currently No. 2 in Group 4A North
The Spartans cannot catch No. 1 Sherando if Sherando beats Millbrook. If Sherando loses, Salem could move up by beating Pulaski County but it would be close in points. If Salem loses to Pulaski, there’s a very slim chance that Courtland, Eastern View or George Washington — or a combination of the three — could pass the Spartans. A very slim chance. Bottom line: Salem is looking at the No. 2 seed and perhaps two games in two weeks against Pulaski County.
currently No. 3 in Group 3A West
Botetourt finishes with William Byrd (7-2) at home. Heritage finishes at Group 2A Nottoway (5-4). If both teams win, the race for No. 1 is going to be very close. If both teams win, they would each have 289 points, pending what all their 2013 opponents do in their finales. Heritage is guaranteed six more points. Botetourt is guaranteed four more. LB has five remaining teams that could win and give the Cavaliers two points each — Richlands vs. Grundy, James River vs. Craig County, Rustburg vs. E.C. Glass, William Fleming vs. Patrick Henry and Glenvar vs. Giles. Heritage could get points from Gretna over Nelson County, Robert E. Lee over Harrisonburg and Patrick County over Carroll County. There’s a decent chance for a tie. A LB-Heritage tiebreaker would come down to the average rating of each team’s 10 opponents. Right now that figure is 23.012 for Heritage to 22.998 for Botetourt. If Botetourt does not beat Byrd, the Cavaliers could slip behind Western Albemarle or Northside, or both. Bottom line: Slight edge to Heritage for the No. 1 spot but too close to forecast.
WILLIAM BYRD and CHRISTIANSBURG
currently tied at No. 8 in Group 3A West
Christiansburg finishes up against Blacksburg, while Byrd faces unbeaten Lord Botetourt. Byrd also happens to be the last team to defeat LB, winning 23-0 in last year’s playoffs.
Byrd moves ahead of Christiansburg if both teams win. Byrd would not be able to pass Monticello if Monticello wins its last game against Louisa County. Byrd, Magna Vista and Monticello could find themselves in a tight battle for the No. 6-8 positions. Bottom line: If Byrd doesn’t beat Lord Botetourt, the chances are good for a first-round game sending Byrd to Christiansburg.
currently No. 13 in Group 3A West
Cave Spring is in good shape, but the Knights could slip out if they lose to Hidden Valley on Friday, and Brookville, Tunstall and Blacksburg all win. That would require a Blacksburg victory over Christiansburg, combined with Brookville over Amherst County and Tunstall over Halifax County. Even with that, Tunstall would have a hard time outpointing the Knights. Bottom line: A playoff berth is very, very promising for Cave Spring.
currently No. 14 in Group 3A West
Hidden Valley would get in with a win over Cave Spring on Friday. With a loss, the Titans would face the same scenarious as Cave Spring, but would be in a slightly weaker position. Blacksburg, Tunstall and Brookville all would have to win their games, and various other outcomes would have to occur for Hidden Valley to be left out in the cold. Bottom line: Don’t print the tickets yet, it’s better than 75-25 the Titans will advance.
currently No. 1 in Group 2A West
Giles, one of just two unbeaten 2A teams statewide, will be the No. 1 seed in the final standings no matter what happens Friday. The Spartans could play as many as four playoff games at home.
currently No. 15 in Group 1A West
Auburn can qualify for its first playoff berth since 2002 by defeating Floyd County at home on Friday. Otherwise, the Eagles would need some help. If Auburn loses to Floyd, the Eagles would be eliminated if No. 15 Hurley beats Twin Valley and No. 17 Eastside defeats Castlewood. Twin Valley is 3-6, while Castlewood is 1-8. Bottom line: Auburn probably needs to win.
GROUP 6A SOUTH
CONFERENCES 1 & 2
(Top 8 teams qualify)
1. OSCAR SMITH,,9,312,34.67
2. OCEAN LAKES,,9,300,33.33
3. WESTERN BRANCH,,9,281,31.22
7. FRANK COX,,9,247,27.44
12. First Colonial,,9,209,23.22
CONFERENCES 3 & 4
(Top 8 teams qualify)
2. C.D. HYLTON,,9,285,31.67
3. COLONIAL FORGE,,9,282,31.33
4. FOREST PARK,,9,276,30.67
5. PATRICK HENRY-ROANOKE,,9,274,30.44
6. THOMAS DALE,,9,267,29.67
9. James River-Midlothian,,9,239,26.56
11. Franklin County,,10,246,24.60
13. Gar-Field,,9,171,19.00 Read more »