Sabato: Bad news for Clinton and McCain
Posted Feb12, 2008 at 08:22 PM
I just heard from Larry Sabato, the most widely-quoted authority on Virginia politics. I'll share his comments in full:
This blowout for Obama is very bad news for Clinton. In the South, at least, this is Obama’s best showing with white voters, and actually it’s his largest share of the black vote Obama has received anywhere. The elements were all there for Obama and everyone saw it ahead of time: upscale whites in NoVa and Hampton Roads, African-Americans that were at least 30% of today’s turnout, and massive margins in the many college towns across VA (they matter in a D primary).
At this point, it almost doesn’t matter whether McCain wins VA and all the delegates. [After all, he’s the guaranteed nominee.] This is a horrible embarrassment for McCain. The buyer’s remorse for McCain is worse than I have witnessed for any presidential candidate in either party. Conservatives are rebelling across the country. This is the end of McCain’s attempt to shut down the nominating process. He has to pivot back from the general election and focus on the nomination again. He has to sell himself anew to the party base---without pandering so much that independents and moderates are turned off. Good luck, John!
If the general election is McCain versus Obama, McCain may still win VA but the GOP will have to spend real money here. Bad news for them.
Dr. Larry J. Sabato
Director, Center for Politics
Robert Kent Gooch Professor and
University Professor of Politics
University of Virginia
-- Dwayne Yancey, Senior Editor
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