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Virginia's 2008 presidential primary: Analysis

Posted Feb12, 2008 at 11:00 PM

Some final thoughts from Virginia’s presidential primary:

* All night long, we’ve been looking at McCain’s relatively weak showing against Huckabee. But as the final numbers come in, McCain has edged, once again, over 50 percent. And he’s winning with about 55 percent of the vote in Maryland right now. So I wonder, come the morning, how much his relatively unimpressive Virginia margin is going to matter? (It won’t matter on the delegate count; the Old Dominion is winner-take-all on the GOP side). University of Virginia political analyst Larry Sabato says it’ll matter a lot to Republican insiders; he says some worry that in McCain they’re nominating another Bob Dole. We’ll see. Democratic strategist Paul Goldman thinks this was Huckabee’s Gettysburg.

* By the same token, how much will Obama’s margins start to matter in the opposite direction? The Clinton people had been downplaying Virginia, saying, well, that’s an Obama state. Maybe so, but that’s quite a landslide for Obama. If you had told me a month ago that Clinton would have gotten wiped out in Northern Virginia and been reduced to relying on Southwest Virginia, I’d have thought you were crazy. For two candidates who have been evenly matched nationally, this 64-35 split is a pretty stunning margin. Obama has now won eight states in a row, and by some pretty thunderous margins. See the earlier post with the Paul Goldman quote about how Texas could be Clinton’s Alamo. I’m betting we might see a lot of pundits using that line in the days ahead.

* What does the turn-out mean? More than 900,000 people -- maybe close to 1 million -- have voted in the Democratic primary. That’s about 20 percent turn-out. By contrast, the turnout in the Democratic primary in 2004 was only 9 percent. You can go back to the first big Super Tuesday primary in 1988, and even then the turnout was only 14 percent on the Democratic side. So this is a quantum leap for the Democrats.

On the Republican side, umm, not so much. Looks like about 450,000 or so have voted, or just under 10 percent. That’s down from 17 percent in the 2000 primary where George W. Bush defeated John McCain. Interestingly, that year Bush took almost 53 percent of the vote and that was considered a pretty decisive win. So if McCain winds up close to that, maybe his total isn’t as bad as some have feared.

There’s certainly no doubt that this year’s primary has put Virginia on the map, not just nationally, but even internationally. My 12-year-old son just called in from Bolivia to get an update on the results, which he says he’ll announce at his school tomorrow (he’s there on an exchange trip).

The candidates are now off to the next round of states -- Wisconsin and Hawaii, then Texas and Ohio on March 4. I wonder if we’ll see any of them around these parts again in the fall?

-- Dwayne Yancey, Senior Editor

Roanoke goes for Obama and Huckabee

Posted Feb12, 2008 at 10:32 PM

Roanoke has spoken, and the winners in the Star City are Obama and Huckabee.
Results first, analysis second.

Democrats:
Obama 5,998
Clinton 4,402

Republicans:
Huckabee 2,394
McCain 1,397

Here’s what I notice in looking at the returns on a precinct level. Clinton carried the two places I had identified as swing areas -- she took four of the six Williamson Road precincts (older, less affluent) and four of the five Raleigh Court precincts (middle-class areas, for those not familiar with the city). And, she won in some of the Southeast precincts (blue-collar neighborhoods). So how did she lose overall then? She lost because Obama stayed close in many of those precincts. And then he won by thunderous margins in the African-American precincts (example: Eureka Park, where Obama won 425 to 63.) He also won the two South Roanoke precincts, perhaps the city’s most affluent precincts by a total of 486-275. That profile pretty well matches how things have gone nationally.

The Republican side is a lot simpler tonight. Huckabee won all by two of the city’s precincts. He lost only in South Roanoke #1 and South Roanoke #2.

-- Dwayne Yancey, Senior Editor

Obama got more votes than all Republicans combined

Posted Feb12, 2008 at 10:11 PM

Here's another interesting -- and potentially important -- tidbit from today's tally:

Obama got more votes than all the Republicans combined. I'd like to claim credit for spotting that, but it really comes from the campaign of Tom Perriello, the Democrat who would like to run against Rep. Virgil Goode, R-Rocky Mount, this fall.

With 91 percent of the vote counted, Obama has 508,098 votes. All the Republicans together have 397,304. I'm sure Democrats (especially Obama Democrats) will talk that up as more evidence that Virginia is turning into a "purple" state that could fall into the Democrats' column in the fall. I'd expect Republicans to say, well, not so fast -- the Republican contest was pretty well over with, so it's an apples-to-oranges comparison.

Who's right?

By the way, still waiting on Roanoke numbers. What gives?

-- Dwayne Yancey, Senior Editor

Will Texas be Clinton's Alamo?

Posted Feb12, 2008 at 10:01 PM

Paul Goldman is one of the smartest political strategists I know. Virginians know him as the mastermind behind Doug Wilder’s run for governor. One reason I like Paul is because his analysis often runs counter to everyone else’s. The prevailing opinion at the moment is that the Virginia results tonight are an embarrassment for McCain; Paul’s a Democrat, but he just called in from Richmond to say he thinks the big loser in Virginia tonight is Huckabee.
McCain didn’t put much effort into Virginia, but Huckabee still couldn’t beat him. “That’s the story of the night,” Goldman says. (By the way, McCain’s percentage has now dropped back under 50 percent.)
Goldman likes war analogies and offers two. First, he says Clinton is in deeper trouble than anyone realizes. “Clinton is like Colonel Travis at the Alamo. She’s making her last stand and she’s going to have to make it on her own, because Sam Houston isn’t showing up again.”
He also predicts Clinton will lose in Texas -- the next big states are Ohio and Texas on March 4 -- and then the game will be up . . . because of another war analogy.
Goldman predicts McCain will rally conservatives by opening up “a two-front war” on the Democrats -- and start trying to force them to commit themselves on the Iraq war. Once McCain starts tearing into the Democrats on a daily basis, Goldman figures Democrats will realize they can’t afford to continue the Obama-Clinton nomination fight -- and superdelegates will rally behind the leader. Who right now is Obama.
Anyone else have opinions on how this will play out from here?
-- Dwayne Yancey, Senior Editor

What would Karl Rove think?

Posted Feb12, 2008 at 09:47 PM

An old friend from Stuarts Draft up in Augusta County weighs in these observations:

Man, you’re on top of those numbers. I notice both O and Mc’s margins have been growing through the night.
Here’s one you might want to tackle on the blog: I’ve heard Karl Rove making much of the fact that Obama has been winning in traditional Red states, while McCain has been winning traditional Blue states - and that that points to a weakness for both. (ie., Why let states that don’t usually support your party choose your nominee?) I don’t follow that at all. It’s not as if the Ds who voted for Hillary in California and NY and Mass. wouldn’t vote for Obama in November if he got the nomination. And as the Virginia results tonight show, and Missouri last week, Obama can get independent voters excited enough, possibly, to turn Red states Blue. So: Is Rove on crack?
Also: Why are late-deciding voters consistently breaking for Clinton?

So what do others think?

-- Dwayne Yancey, Senior Editor

A closer look at Obama's landslide, part 2

Posted Feb12, 2008 at 09:40 PM

We need to update our electoral fault line. Earlier in the evening, Clinton looked to be safely ahead in Bedford County. But nothing seems safe this year. Now all but one precinct is in, and Obama has pulled ahead by 177 votes.
That slightly alters the dividing line I drew earlier. Plus we have word now from Botetourt County and a few other places. So here’s how the break point between the Obama landslide and Clinton country goes: Clinton took Bedford city; Obama took Bedford County, Clinton took Franklin County, but Obama took Henry County and Martinsville, while she took Patrick County. Think of it as a game of electoral hopscotch along the eastern slopes of the mountains.
On the west side of the Blue Ridge, Clinton took Botetourt, Roanoke County and Salem (still no word yet from Roanoke), but Obama took Montgomery County, Radford and Floyd, and then Clinton took everything west of the New River.
Still, let’s face it: This is a landslide. We’ve seen a lot of candidates over the years win in Virginia by just winning in Northern Virginia and a few other places. Obama has won, and won pretty overwhelmingly, across the state -- Southwest Virginia is the only exception.
-- Dwayne Yancey, Senior Editor

McCain crosses 50 percent threshold

Posted Feb12, 2008 at 09:25 PM

McCain just crossed the 50 percent threshold in the State Board of Elections official tally, which will be an important psychological breakthrough on what otherwise hasn't been a good night for the Republican front-runner. His number is likely to go up some, too. The biggest place we’re still waiting for is Virginia Beach, where the early precincts have gone pretty strong for McCain. We’re also still waiting on Roanoke -- not a peep from the Star City yet. And something is screwy with the numbers from Chesterfield County, which I’ve been waiting for all night. The state board says McCain got 93 percent of the vote and Huckabee got zero. Nobody gets zero. I’m asking my Republican sources what’s up with that.
-- Dwayne Yancey, Senior Editor

Democrats outvote Republicans 2-1

Posted Feb12, 2008 at 09:14 PM

Larry Sabato, the University of Virginia political analyst, knows how to read election returns better than anyone I know, and he calls my attention to this figure: 2-to-1. That's the ratio by which Democrats outvoted Republicans today in Virginia. He says in full:

The worst news of all for VA Republicans is the relative turnout. Democrats are charged up, and by 2-to-1, they outvoted Republicans today. This is a very good sign for Democrats as they attempt to turn the state Blue for the first time since 1964. Even worse for the GOP, McCain has proven to be a weak candidate with his own party’s base. Having said all that, it’s a long time from February to November, but it’s already obvious which party has the most work to do.

Dr. Larry J. Sabato

Director, Center for Politics

Robert Kent Gooch Professor and

University Professor of Politics

University of Virginia

-- Dwayne Yancey, Senior Editor

Obama wins superdelegate's home county

Posted Feb12, 2008 at 08:57 PM

On the Democratic side, we’re down to dissecting just how complete this Obama landslide is. Here’s one small measure: He won 54% of the vote in Highland County, the state’s smallest county.(Actual tally: 131-109). I looked at Highland because it’s also home to one of Virginia's “superdelegates,” Democratic National Committeewoman Susan Swecker, who has been working for Clinton. Sorry, Susan.
-- Dwayne Yancey, Senior Editor

CNN calls it for McCain, but it's not pretty

Posted Feb12, 2008 at 08:46 PM

CNN has finally caught up to what I’ve been saying for awhile now: McCain will win Virginia, but it won’t be pretty. It’s basically a two-man race, and McCain is still polling under 50%, thanks to votes for Ron Paul and some of the candidates who have already dropped out but still have their names on the ballot.
I’ve said to look at the suburbs. McCain is taking Fairfax with 63% of the vote. But he only took 52% of the vote in Prince William County. He’s winning Spotsylvania by 48-43. And he’s not up by much in the first precincts to report from Loudoun County.
Closer to home for us, Huckabee is thumping McCain in Roanoke County.
-- Dwayne Yancey, Senior Editor

A closer look at Obama's landslide

Posted Feb12, 2008 at 08:35 PM

Governor Tim Kaine, a big Obama supporter from early on, just put out a statement calling his man’s victory tonight “decisive.”
I’d have to agree. It’s not just the numbers -- 63% to 35% certainly counts as a landslide in anybody’s book. But look at the breadth of Obama’s victory. Clinton took Southwest Virginia, he won pretty much everyplace else.
The dividing line between Obama country and Clinton country runs runs pretty much right through our area. She Obama took Henry County; Clinton took Patrick. She took Bedford and Franklin; he’s taking Floyd. She’s taking Roanoke County and Salem; no word yet on Roanoke city and Botetourt. Obama took Montgomery County and Radford; Clinton took everything west of that.
Outside of Southwest Virginia, the only places I can find where Clinton beat Obama in Virginia are Warren County and Page County, up in the Shenandoah Valley. Oh yes, Colonial Heights.
-- Dwayne Yancey, Senior Editor

Sabato: Bad news for Clinton and McCain

Posted Feb12, 2008 at 08:22 PM

I just heard from Larry Sabato, the most widely-quoted authority on Virginia politics. I'll share his comments in full:

This blowout for Obama is very bad news for Clinton. In the South, at least, this is Obama’s best showing with white voters, and actually it’s his largest share of the black vote Obama has received anywhere. The elements were all there for Obama and everyone saw it ahead of time: upscale whites in NoVa and Hampton Roads, African-Americans that were at least 30% of today’s turnout, and massive margins in the many college towns across VA (they matter in a D primary).

At this point, it almost doesn’t matter whether McCain wins VA and all the delegates. [After all, he’s the guaranteed nominee.] This is a horrible embarrassment for McCain. The buyer’s remorse for McCain is worse than I have witnessed for any presidential candidate in either party. Conservatives are rebelling across the country. This is the end of McCain’s attempt to shut down the nominating process. He has to pivot back from the general election and focus on the nomination again. He has to sell himself anew to the party base---without pandering so much that independents and moderates are turned off. Good luck, John!

If the general election is McCain versus Obama, McCain may still win VA but the GOP will have to spend real money here. Bad news for them.

Dr. Larry J. Sabato

Director, Center for Politics

Robert Kent Gooch Professor and

University Professor of Politics

University of Virginia

-- Dwayne Yancey, Senior Editor

Check where the numbers are coming from

Posted Feb12, 2008 at 08:17 PM

I don’t mean to speak ill of another news organization, but the totals on CNN are running well behind those posted on the State Board of Elections website. Can’t Wolf Blitzer check that? CNN has 36% of the vote in, and McCain and Huckabee tied. The state board has nearly 49% of the vote in, and McCain with a slight lead. Still nothing from Chesterfield County (outside Richmond) and Prince William County (Northern Virginia), two big localities. But a lot of other Northern Virginia precincts are coming in, and those are boosting McCain’s numbers, but Huckabee is still hanging in strong.
-- Dwayne Yancey, Senior Editor

McCain hasn't closed the deal yet

Posted Feb12, 2008 at 08:01 PM

Earlier today, one of my Republican confidantes advised me to keep an eye on strong GOP suburbs such as Chesapeake, Chesterfield and Loudoun to see whether there’s any conservative backlash against McCain. Well, the last two haven’t reported a single vote yet, but Chesapeake is nearly done and Hucakbee is leading there by 59 votes. I think it’s clear from this that McCain hasn’t made the sale yet to a lot of conservative voters. In Hanover Couonty, outside Richmond, another Republican bastion, he’s winning, but not by an impressive margin. And we’ve just gotten the first numbers from Roanoke County: Huckabee, so far.
So what do you think?
-- Dwayne Yancey, Senior Editor

Obama winning 10 of 11 congressional districts

Posted Feb12, 2008 at 07:49 PM

Obama is beating Clinton in 10 of the state’s 11 congressional district. Only the 9th District, in Southwest Virginia (from Roanoke County west to the Cumberland Gap) is she winning. Some of the margins there aren’t pretty at all; landslide numbers for the former first lady down in the coalfields.
Earlier, I said look at Washington County-- and she’s winning there 72% to 26%. But I also said look at Henry County, and Obama is winning there by 60% to 40%, and that’s the trend that carries across the rest of the state at the moment. I’ll be curious where that geographical dividing line falls between the two. Still nothing from Roanoke or Roanoke County or Montgomery County, but Obama has taken the first of four precincts in Radford.
-- Dwayne Yancey, Senior Editor

The McCain vote starts to come in

Posted Feb12, 2008 at 07:42 PM

The Republican side is getting clearer now, as we start to hear from some of the big suburban localities. McCain is winning the first precincts to report in places such as Hanover County (outside Richmond), and Stafford and Spotsylvania counties on the edge of Northern Virginia -- though they’re closer than he’d like them to be. Alexandria just started to report, and it’s going strong for McCain -- 73% to 15%.
Still nothing from other localities in Northern Virginia, or Hampton Roads, where you’d think McCain’s military credentials would help him a lot. My hunch is he’ll win, but the result will be closer than he’d like. The CNN totals still have Huckabee ahead, but their totals are running behind the State of Elections. There, McCain has just pulled ahead.
-- Dwayne Yancey, Senior Editor

Early vote weighted toward Huckabee, suburbs still out

Posted Feb12, 2008 at 07:31 PM

This Republican race is a real barn-burner. At the moment, Huckabee is ahead with just under 7% of the vote counted -- Huckabee 48%, McCain 45%.
But keep in mind -- the first returns are disportionately rural. Huckabee is winning strong through Southwest, up the Shenandoah Valley and over into Southside. For instance, Bedford County has 38 percent of the vote in, and he’s winning there by 68% to 27%. As always, let’s wait until we hear from the suburbs, especially Northern Virginia. We just got in one precinct from Fauquier, on the edges of Northern Virginia. It’s gone for McCain, by 159-63. That’s more of what McCain wants to hear.
-- Dwayne Yancey, Senior Editor

CNN, AP call it for Obama

Posted Feb12, 2008 at 07:08 PM

Well, that was fast. The polls close at 7 pm.; by 7:01 p.m, both CNN and AP have called it for Obama, based on exit polling. No actual numbers yet.
I see where CNN says McCain and Huckabee are too close to call. I’m old-fashioned. I think I’ll wait for actual numbers.
So what do you make it of all?
-- Dwayne Yancey, Senior Editor

Virginia primary analysis: 5 places to watch

Posted Feb12, 2008 at 06:52 PM

You, too, can play election analyst tonight. Some broad trends are already evident this year:
* On the Democratic side, Barack Obama does best with upscale whites -- and African-Americans; Hillary Clinton does best with lower-income whites, and Latinos (and, of course, women).
* On the Republican side, Mike Huckabee does best with evangelicals; John McCain with independents.
That means we can zero in on five places to watch as the Virginia results come in tonight.
1. Traditionally Republican suburbs such as Loudoun County, Prince William County, Chesterfield County,and, yes, Roanoke County. These aren’t places you’d expect Huckabee to do well. If he does, that’s a sign of further conservative discontent with front-runner John McCain.
2. The U.S. 220 corridor -- Franklin County, Henry County, Martinsville. This is always one of my bellwethers. Demographically, this should be Clinton country. But some key political figures here have endorsed Obama, such as the mayor of Martinsville and House Minority Leader Ward Armstrong of Henry County.
3. Washington County. And, to some extent, Southwest Virginia in general. Bill Clinton made appearances in Abingdon, Blacksburg and, of course, Roanoke. But Southwest Virginia’s congressman, Rich Boucher, endorsed Obama. He’s from Abingdon. Which way will his hometown swing? (And ditto for the Republicans: If Huckabee has a prayer, he’s got to win big in Southwest Virginia.)
4. Roanoke. As I said in my first posting, this is a good indicator. The city has a diverse population. I’ll be looking to see how the Williamson Road precincts go -- they’re older, less affluent, so should be ripe for Clinton -- and the Raleigh Court area goes -- more affluent, more typical of an Obama voter. Any variation from that pattern should signal a trend.
5. Northern Virginia. ‘nuff said. But those precincts are so big, they always report last. Remember how the Allen-Webb race went into the wee hours until the absentees from Arlington were counted? But any early returns from some of the smaller localities, such as Manassas, or Falls Church, could be useful canaries in the coalmine.
-- Dwayne Yancey, Senior Editor

Virginia primary analysis: A preview

Posted Feb12, 2008 at 05:32 PM

They’re calling today’s vote “the Potomac primary” but two candidates will be looking tonight for big help from a part of Virginia that’s a long way away from that famous waterway. Specifically, both Hillary Clinton on the Democratic side and Mike Huckabee on the Republican side are counting on support from Southwest Virginia.
Clinton, in particular, has worked the region hard -- Bill Clinton made appearances in Abingdon, Blacksburg and Roanoke; Hillary herself tried to visit Roanoke, but was driven away by high winds. Who would ever have guessed that no only does Virginia matter, but Southwest Virginia is in the thick of things?
Meanwhile, Barack Obama is counting on a big vote out of Northern Virginia, but the DC suburbs always report last, so there are a number of belwethers I’ll be looking for earlier in the evening. Interestingly, Roanoke is one of them.
The polls close at 7 p.m. and we’ll be posting election results and analysis here throughout the evening, based on my nearly two decades of being in and around political coverage in the Old Dominion. Got a comment or question? Post it, and we’ll try to make sense of the results tonight together.
-- Dwayne Yancey, Senior Editor

Clinton to speak Sunday; Obama, Huckabee visit Roanoke on Monday

Posted Feb09, 2008 at 09:06 PM

The time of Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton’s appearance in Roanoke has been pushed back a half-hour. The New York senator will appear at Roanoke’s Patrick Henry High School at 5 p.m. Sunday. Doors will open at 4 p.m. The event is open to the public and no tickets are required. The school is 2102 Grandin Road S.W.

Continue reading "Clinton to speak Sunday; Obama, Huckabee visit Roanoke on Monday" »
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