2011.04.12
Why Democrats want to put Roanoke in the Fightin’ Ninth
Wondering why Democrats in the state Senate think Roanoke should be put in the 9th Congressional District? (If you missed the original report from Michael Sluss, it’s here.)
You could call this the “Be careful what you wish for, Morgan Griffith” district.
Republicans are keen, of course, to make sure Griffith’s home in Salem gets moved into the 9th District. Democrats apparently decided instead of fighting that, they’d just give in — and give a little more. Something along the lines of: “Sure, Morgan, we’ll put Salem in the 9th for you. Heck, we’ll also put Roanoke and all of its Democratic voters in there, too. How you like that?”
From a vote-counting standpoint, what the Democrats are doing here is giving up on the 6th District — which has been pretty reliably in Republican hands since 1952, with the exception of the Jim Olin interregnum in the ’80s and early ’90s. Instead, they’re banking on trying to win back the 9th — by moving the Democratic stronghold of Roanoke into that district.
A few figures of interest:
* In 2008, Obama carried Roanoke by 9,540 votes.
* By contrast, in 2010, Griffith won the existing 9th District by 8,963 votes.
You do the math.
Now, to compare presidential races with congressional race is slightly apples-to-oranges; there’s usually a drop-off, of course. But still, the larger point holds: Roanoke can deliver a lot of Democratic votes. Put Roanoke in the 9th, and get a better Democratic turn-out in the coalfields (which was noticeably depressed in 2008), and the Democrats are figuring they might be able to re-take the 9th District.
That’s my reading of it, anyway.
I also note that Democrats didn’t try to put Martinsville (which delivered a 1,828-vote margin for Obama) in the 9th, when they could easily have done so by cutting out some Republican voters in Floyd or part of Carroll and adding in Martinsville. However, they may have figured Roanoke would be enough to tilt the 9th Democratic — and they’d still like to reclaim the 5th, too, and any Democrat in the 5th would need those Martinsville voters.
By contrast, the Democrats apparently felt Covington (which also went for Obama by 284 votes) was a lost cause. To keep that city in the 9th, they’d also have to keep Craig and at least part of Alleghany, and those all voted solidly Republican.
– Dwayne Yancey
