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In the Republican war plan, the path to a state Senate majority may cut right through Southwest and Southside Virginia.

The dust is beginning to settle on a redistricting plan that has been characterized as a Democratic-engineered firewall protecting the party’s last redoubt of power in Richmond. But Republicans, including Gov. Bob McDonnell, have their sights set on seizing control of the chamber this fall, when all 40 seats are up for election. And to hear them tell it, districts now represented by rural Democrats could be key battlegrounds.

Republicans need to pick up three seats to reclaim a majority. Even a two-seat pickup would give the GOP leverage because Republican Lt. Gov. Bill Bolling wields the gavel and a tie-breaking vote in the Senate.

The redistricting plan makes the task harder for Republicans. It puts Republicans Harry Blevins of Chesapeake and Fred Quayle of Suffolk into a single district, effectively dissolving a GOP seat.

The reapportionment plan also puts Republicans Ralph Smith of Botetourt County and Steve Newman of Lynchburg into a single district, but Democrats may not get rid of either senator. A new, open district that stretches from Lynchburg to Goochland County also looks like favorable terrain for the GOP.

From all accounts, Smith will announce tomorrow that he will move and run in the 19^th Senate District, which covers parts of the Roanoke and New River valleys and the Smith Mountain Lake area. Republican Bill Stanley of Franklin County, who now holds the 19^th District seat, will move to the south and seek the 20^th District seat occupied by veteran Democrat Roscoe Reynolds of Henry County.

If Stanley gets the Republican nomination, a general election contest with Reynolds could be one of the state’s most closely watched races this fall. Word is that Stanley has hired battle-tested GOP strategist Chris LaCivita, just one sign that Reynolds could be in for his toughest fight since he first won the Senate seat in a 1996 special election.

Reynolds isn’t the only rural Democrat that Republicans are targeting. The GOP also wants to take a run at Sen. Phillip Puckett of Russell County, hoping the moderate Democrat may be as vulnerable as longtime U.S. Rep. Rick Boucher was last fall. Adam Light of Tazewell County, who sought the GOP nomination for Congress last year, stepped out early as a candidate for Puckett’s seat.  

Puckett is gearing up for a fight, though. He raised nearly $75,000 in the first three months of this year, even though he couldn’t raise money during the seven weeks that the General Assembly was in session. He had more than $146,000 on hand at the end of March, compared to Light’s $20,000.

Republicans have even been polling to test the strength of four-term Democrat John Edwards of Roanoke, but no GOP candidate has emerged in a district that was drawn to Edwards’ liking.

The heat of summer is not here yet. But in parts of Southwest and Southside Virginia, the political terrain may stay hot all the way through the November election.

–Michael Sluss