www.roanoke.com

John Edwards: How well connected is he in the New River Valley portion of the district?

Dave Nutter: Can he get the same margin in NRV that Edwards can get in Roanoke?

Tripp Godsey is also seeking the GOP nomination.

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The big political news so far this week has to be Del. Dave Nutter’s announcement that he’ll seek the Republican nomination to challenge state Sen. John Edwards, D-Roanoke.
Now, the Christiansburg legisalator first has some opposition for the GOP nomination in Roanoke insurance agent Tripp Godsey, who has some Tea party support. But Godsey’s an unknown political factor; Nutter isn’t. With all due respect to Godsey, I want to skip ahead to handicapping a potential Nutter vs. Edwards race.

The conventional wisdom has been that Edwards has a safe Democrat seat. But is it? Let’s look at the numbers:

* The last time Edwards had opposition was 1999, when William Fralin was the Republican nominee. Edwards won, of course, (and Fralin later went on to win a House seat.) But the district then looks very different from what it does now. Then it was Roanoke city and part of Roanoke County. Now it’s Roanoke city, parts of western and northern Roanoke County, plus a big chunk of Montgomery County and all of Giles County. You can find a map of the district here on the Virginia Public Access Project site.

* Here’s what I notice: In 1999, Roanoke city (which you’d have to assume would be part of Edwards’ base) accounted for 50 percent of the votes in that election. But now . . .Roanoke accounts for only 44 percent of the voting strength in that district. So redistricting has diminished Edwards’ base.

* Interestingly, the New River Valley portion of the district accounts for . . . hmm, exactly 44 percent of the votes in that district, the same share as Roanoke city!

* That means the remainder is in the section of (mostly rural) Roanoke County needed to connect Roanoke with the New River.

This leads me to some thoughts and questions:

* Edwards has represented parts of Montgomery County and Giles since the redistricting after the 2000 census, but he’s never faced opposition — so voters there have never really had a chance to vote for him or against him there. So I have to wonder: How well connected is Edwards in the New River Valley? Granted, there’s certainly some Democratic strength there — but are other voters going to feel more kinship with Nutter, who’s from the New River Valley, and doesn’t exactly cut the most partisan Republican profile?

* Republican Bob McDonnell carried that Senate district with just under 52 percent of the vote in the 2009 gubernatorial race. Now, that was a blow-out election statewide and 52 percent is a fairly narrow margin but still . . . this isn’t a Democratic lock, by any means.

* Of note: McDonnell took almost 53% of the vote in the Montgomery County part of that district and nearly 66% of the vote in the Giles County part of that district. Does this spell trouble for Edwards in that end of the district?

* Roanoke city is, of course, quite Democratic. Creigh Deeds took about 55% of the vote there, even in a bad Democratic year. In that 1999 race against Fralin, Edwards took 64 percent of the vote in the city.

So….do we think Nutter will get the same percentage of the vote in NRV that Edwards will get in Roanoke city? For argument’s sake, let’s say “yes.” If so, that means the election would get decided in that mostly rural portion of Roanoke County — and that’s Republican territory. Closer to Edwards’ base, but still Republican. (McDonnell took nearly 65% of the vote there.)

If Nutter got the same percentage of the vote in NRV that Edwards does in Roanoke city, then the advantage would seem to go to Nutter — on the theory that the natural Republican base of Roanoke County would kick in on his behalf.

If, however, we think Edwards will run better in Roanoke city than Nutter does in NRV, well, there’s still that sliver of GOP-leaning Roanoke County to think about. So then the question is…what percentage would Nutter have to achieve in NRV to win?

Put another way: Can Edwards duplicate that 64% slice of the Roanoke city vote? In his favor: In 1999, he was running against a fellow well known in Roanoke; Nutter won’t have that advantage. And if Edwards can duplicate that, can Nutter come close to that kind of margin in New River? He took 60 percent in his 2009 re-election against Peggy Frank, although that district didn’t include Giles County (and did include some areas that aren’t in this Senate district.)

In any case, this is a different year, different candidates, all the rest. Still, both Edwards and Nutter have shown that in the past they can top 60 percent on their home turf. How will do they do against each other?

There may be other ways to look at this — but that’s my initial take from looking at the numbers.

This is looking like a fun one to watch.

– Dwayne Yancey