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John Edwards: How well connected is he in the New River Valley portion of the district?

Dave Nutter: Will Bobby Lilly's campaign in Giles help Nutter there?

The morning’s Roanoke Times brings the news that Bobby Lilly is running for commonwealth’s attorney in Giles County.

This is significant beyond Giles because Lilly was the lawyer who negotiated the school board’s decision this month to rehang the Ten Commandments in the county’s schools.

Now, Lilly says that’s not a factor in his decision to run, and the office of commonwealth’s attorney doesn’t have anything to do with such things anyway. So maybe his challenge to incumbent Phillip Steele will be a routine affair that focuses on who would be the better prosecutor.

However, one can’t help but wonder whether his role in the Ten Commandments issue will help galvanize voters there and spur a bigger-than-usual turnout.

If so, how would that play into another race going on in Giles this fall — the state Senate race between John Edwards, D-Roanoke, and Del. Dave Nutter, R-Christiansburg? (Assuming, of course, Nutter prevails in an August primary over Tea Party-backed Tripp Godsey.)

We’ve previously analyzed that match-up and noted that Edwards has never faced opposition since he started representing Giles and part of Montgomery County, so it’s an open question how well-connected he is the New River Valley. Blog reader “Earl K” has amendmed our analysis to suggest that Nutter will carry Giles but lose the race because he won’t be able to get enough votes in Blacksburg to carry Montgomery County.

But now comes this. If there are any ADDITIONAL votes beyond a “normal” turn-out in Giles because of the Ten Commandments issue, you could safely assume they’d be conservative voters — who would be more inclined to back Nutter, a Republican, over Edwards, a Democrat.

And any “additional” vote that Nutter gets in Giles means one less that he “has” to get in Montgomery County.

So, will the Ten Commandments wind up helping Nutter and hurting Edwards?

Giles isn’t the only place where a local issue could wind up influencing General Assembly races. In Franklin County, I’d expect the marquee race to be the sheriff’s race — the re-match between Ewell Hunt (R) and Billy Overton (formerly D, now an I.) How will public interest in that contest play into the state Senate race between Bill Stanley, R-Moneta, and Roscoe Reynolds, D-Henry County, especially since Stanley has been Hurt’s attorney in his legal troubles. And how will it play into the delegate’s race between Ward Armstrong, D-Henry County, and Charles Poindexter, R-Rocky Mount?

Can anyone think of other places this fall where local races and issues could wind up making the difference in a General Assembly contest?