With 69 percent of the vote in, Bill Stanley (R) holds a 509-vote lead over Roscoe Reynolds (D).

But here’s the thing to keep in mind:

* We have no votes in from Carroll County, traditionally a Republican stronghold.
* We have only 4 of 13 precincts reporting in Franklin County, Stanley’s home county.

Those appear to be the two biggest absences — and both should logically be considered favorites for Stanley.