Roanoke College Poll shows Obama, Kaine opening “significant” leads in Virginia
President Barack Obama
Mitt Romney. Photo by Gage Skidmore.
Roanoke College has just released a poll showing President Obama with an 8-point lead in Virginia and Democrat Tim Kaine with an even bigger 10-point lead in the Senate race.
A few observations:
* This is a poll of likely voters, not registered voters — that’s the type of sample you’d want to see at this point in the campaign.
* This poll also includes cellphones, not just landlines — figuring out how to account for the growing number of people with no landlines has become an issue for pollsters around the country, so this puts Roanoke College ahead of the curve.
* This poll was open for a pretty long period of time — Sept. 19 to 28; usually, you want to see a smaller window of polling, because so much can change over a longer window.
* Historical note: The Roanoke College Poll was the first poll back in 1994 to pick up Chuck Robb’s late-campaign surge that took him past Oliver North. I remember at the time writing stories that discounted the Roanoke College Poll, because it was the only one that didn’t show North with a lead. At the time, I thought it was an outlier and, well, just plain wrong. In hindsight, Roanoke College was picking up on a voter shift before anyone else did.
As for this year’s poll, here’s the release from Roanoke College:
President Barack Obama has opened an 8-point lead (47% – 39%) over Mitt Romney in Virginia, according to The Roanoke College Poll, as the two candidates head into the first presidential debate. Democrat Tim Kaine enjoys a 10-point margin (47% – 37%) over Republican George Allen in the race for the U.S. Senate seat in Virginia.
The Roanoke College Poll interviewed 589 likely voters in Virginia between Sept. 19 and Sept. 28 and has a margin of error of +4 percent. Employing a more stringent screen for likely voters (N=427) reduces the number of undecided voters, but leaves the margins virtually unchanged (Obama 49%, Romney 41%; Kaine 48%, Allen 39%).[1]
Ten percent of the electorate remains undecided in the presidential contest, while the other candidates on the ballot draw smaller numbers of voters (Gary Johnson, 2%; Jill Stein 2%; and Virgil Goode 1%). Adding in those undecided voters who are “leaning” toward a candidate, Obama leads Romney 48 percent to 40 percent with 7 percent undecided. Those who support third-party candidates would split their vote between Romney (29%) and Obama (24%), but most are uncertain of their vote choice if their candidate was not on the Virginia ballot.
Sources of support
Obama holds his base, leading among women (51% – 34%), Democrats (94% – 1%), Liberals (83% – 8%), and younger voters 18-34 years old (62% – 20%). Romney is statistically tied among men (leading 45% – 42%, within the margin of error), but holds comfortable margins among Republicans (88% – 2%), Conservatives (75% – 15%), and those 65 or older (47% – 40%).
Romney leads among those who self-identify as Independents (45% – 32%), but Obama holds a commanding lead among self-described political moderates (56% – 26%), a group that now equals or exceeds conservatives in size in Virginia. More than half of Independents (52%) think of themselves as Moderate, while 34 percent are Conservative, and 9 percent are Liberal. A plurality of Moderates (38%) are Democrats, while slightly fewer (36%) are Independents, and only 17 percent are Conservatives. This helps to explain why Obama leads among Moderates but trails among Independents.
Three-fourths (74%) of Obama supporters say their vote is a vote for him rather than a vote against Romney (15%). More than one-third of Romney supporters (34%) say their vote is a vote against Obama, and less than half (48%) say their vote is a vote for Romney.
A voter’s choice in 2008 is predictive of their 2012 choice. Fully 84 percent of those who voted for Obama in 2008 said they will vote for him in 2012 while 85 percent of John McCain supporters plan to vote for Romney. Only 4 percent in each group plan to switch their vote to the other party.
Virginia’s Race for the U.S. Senate
In the matchup of former governors, Kaine leads among women (52% – 30%), and he is statistically tied among men, trailing Allen by only 4 percent (45% – 41%). The candidates are also statistically tied among White voters (Allen leads 43% – 40%), but Kaine has a very large lead among Black voters (77% – 7%). Kaine leads with Moderates (57% – 25%), but Allen leads among Independents (46% – 39%). Kaine holds leads in every region of the state except the Shenandoah Valley, which is statistically tied.
There are still a relatively large number of undecided voters in this race (17%), particularly when compared to the presidential contest.
Favorable/unfavorable views; important issues
Election prognosticators often cite the favorable/unfavorable ratings of candidates as potential harbingers of the election. President Obama’s favorable rating is 50 percent (41% unfavorable), significantly better than that of Mitt Romney (36% favorable; 45% unfavorable). Tim Kaine leads George Allen in this category (Kaine: 49% favorable/29% unfavorable; Allen: 38% favorable/34% unfavorable). Virginia Governor Bob McDonnell sits at a 41 percent favorable rating.
President Obama is perceived as being capable of doing a better job on several specific issues. He leads Romney on unemployment (46% – 43%), taxes (49% – 40%), foreign policy (52% – 38%), the War on Terror (50% – 38%), Social Security (49% – 38%), Medicare (51% – 38%), health care (50% – 39%), and immigration (47% – 39%). Governor Romney leads only on the issue of the budget deficit (49% – 39%).
Poll results indicate that Virginia residents think that Barack Obama understands them better than Mitt Romney. More than half (56%) think Obama understands the needs of people like them very well or fairly well, while only 41 percent say the same about Mitt Romney. Obama is also thought to be a stronger leader (48% – 36%) than Romney.
Not surprisingly, the issues noted as most important to the likely voters focused on the economy. Two out of five (41%) cited the economy in general, while 12 percent mentioned unemployment or jobs, and 5 percent said the budget deficit was most important. Eleven percent said health care was most important to them. Obama led among likely voters who named each of those issues except the deficit. No other single issue was named by more than 3 percent of voters.
Virginia voters generally disapprove of the Affordable Health Care Act (49% – 42%). They are fairly evenly split on the issue of gay marriage (43% favor, 39% oppose), and with regard to abortion rights, 32 percent think it should be legal in all circumstances, 47 percent in some circumstances, and 15 percent think abortion should be illegal in all circumstances.
The Roanoke College Poll asked a question tangentially related to the “47 percent” issue at least as it relates to government dependency. Nearly half of likely voters (49%) thought that Americans are becoming too dependent on the government and are losing their sense of self-reliance and responsibility. Somewhat fewer (40%) thought that the government should provide its citizens with assistance in paying for their needs that they cannot afford themselves and that we should act more as a community.
Views of Virginia and the U.S. / Important Issues / Elected officials’ approval ratings
A majority of likely Virginia voters (56%) think the United States is on the wrong track while 35 percent think the country is headed in the right direction. Perceptions of the Commonwealth are more optimistic than the country (47% think Virginia is headed in the wrong direction; 35% think it is on the right track).
President Obama’s approval rating is 46 percent, and nearly as many (45%) disapprove of the job he is doing. Gov. Bob McDonnell’s approval rating is 51 percent, while Congressional approval has dropped to 6 percent.
Analysis
“There is very little good news for the Romney campaign in these results,” said Harry Wilson, director of the Institute for Policy and Opinion Research. “Entering the first of three presidential debates Governor Romney has his work cut out for him, but the election is far from over. He can hope that the undecided voters are looking for a reason not to vote for the President and that he can offer it to them in the debates.”
“With President Obama polling well in numerous demographic categories, his lead in Virginia is significant. That said, we have seen many leads this large or even bigger lost in the last weeks of a campaign when most voters really tune in to politics. The debates can be game-changers.”
“Virginia has close to a “must-win” state for Romney, and his scheduled joint appearance with Rep. Ryan in the state the day after the debate underscores its importance. He needs to start making up ground pretty quickly.”
“Republicans have recently been making the argument that some likely voter models overestimate the turnout of Democratic-leaning groups. That argument does not seem to hold in Virginia. Using a more restrictive voter model yields the same eight-point margin for Obama as a less restrictive model.”
Methodology
Interviewing for The Roanoke College Poll was conducted by The Institute for Policy and Opinion Research at Roanoke College in Salem, Va. between Sept. 19 and Sept. 28, 2012. A total of 589 likely voters in Virginia were interviewed. The sample of land lines and cellphones was prepared by Survey Sampling Inc. of Fairfield, Conn. and was created so that all cellphone and residential telephone numbers, including unlisted numbers, had a known chance of inclusion. Cellphones constituted 20 percent of the completed interviews.
Questions answered by the entire sample of 589 likely voters are subject to a sampling error of plus or minus approximately 4 percent at the 95 percent level of confidence. This means that in 95 out of 100 samples like the one used here, the results obtained should be no more than 4 percentage points above or below the figure that would be obtained by interviewing all Virginia likely voters who have a home telephone or a cellphone. Where the results of subgroups are reported, the sampling error is higher.
Quotas were used to ensure that different regions of the Commonwealth were proportionately represented. The data were not statistically weighted.
A copy of the questionnaire and all frequencies may be found on the Roanoke College web site.
October 2, 2012 - 11:30 AM
Wake me when the votes start coming in.
This was my favorite line:
“This poll was open for a pretty long period of time — Sept. 19 to 28; usually, you want to see a smaller window of polling, because so much can change over a longer window.”
So much can change. Why these things are given any credence is ridiculous. We might as well be quoting vegas odds while were at it and what our aunts and uncles think as well.
A few more observations, from looking at the internals:
* This has moderates going for Obama 56-26. That’s huge. If this poll is right, that’s where the race is being won — liberals overwhelmingly back Obama, of course, and conservatives overwhelmingly back Romney.
* The geographic breakdowns seem odd to me. Now I realize at that size the samples aren’t completely reliable, but this shows Romney leading in the Shenandoah Valley 44-40. That’s one of the most Republican parts of the state; Romney ought to have more and Obama ought to have less there. I find that difficult to believe — though, again, once you start going to samples that small, the numbers get wacky.
* Likewise of note: This poll has Obama leading Romney in Southside 44-37. That also seems on the high side for Obama, to me.
* On the other hand, the overall results aren’t completely out of line with other polls that have shown Obama with a lead in Virginia — just not one this big.
– Dwayne Yancey, senior editor
More context:
* Here’s a good overview of all the recent polls in Virginia:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/va/virginia_romney_vs_obama-1774.html#polls
There was a Washington Post poll taken Sept. 12-16 that showed Obama with an 8-point lead, the same as Roanoke College (which I had forgotten in my previous comments.)
However, more recent polls in Virginia have given Obama a lead ranging anywhere from 2 to 7 points. That 7-point lead, by the way, was a Fox poll.
As you can see on the link above, most of those other polls were open only 2-3 days. While I fancy myself a reader of polls, I’m not enough of an expert to speak on what the longer window means — other than that usually pollsters try to avoid that because so much can change over that period of time.
– Dwayne Yancey, senior editor
I don’t believe the poll. These two might indeed be ahead, but definitely not by this much.
#4 PS, of course I said until the end in 2008 that Virginia would never go to Obama.
UptheRiver, you asked for it you got it: http://sports.williamhill.com/bet/en-gb/betting/m/7622886/Next+Presidential+US+Election+-+Next+US+President
If you think a book would take a bet because of favoritism, I guess you don’t gamble much. Doesn’t mean it’s how it will end, but it tells you what the numbers reflect.
Oh, I know there are Vegas bets out there. I’m just saying they have as much credibility as the polls. At least the bet doesn’t waiver as frequently as the polls.
Most accurate polling in the country, Intrade.
https://m.intrade.com/#home
People play the market and invest/bet/wager on the outcomes. Had a great track record during the primaries in predicting the winner. Further more the 538 Blog is creating reading if you want to get in to the weeds of the polls etc.
Regardless this race is not over, but this is the time that one candidate starts to break away. I’ll stick by my prediction this turns out like ’04 with the incumbent getting a narrow win in the electoral and popular. That might change if these numbers out of VA, OH, and FL hold up.
shocking a pole in roanoke would show support to Obama and Kaine
#9 A pole? Anyway, it’s not a poll of just Roanokers. And Roanoke College is in Salem, which is HEAVILY Republican. As is Roanoke County.
Care to try again, dwoo?
Polls are only as accurate as people are honest and competent. IOW, they are not going to be far wrong enough to make the outcome a surprise unless someone is tampering with the election. The trend is the more powerful indicator and that has never truly waivered.
Real Clear Politics complies many polls:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/us/general_election_romney_vs_obama-1171.html#polls
They are not all skewed and they are not all wrong. Pollsters get paid to do their polling, there is no advantage to any of them to be wrong if they want to stay in business.
The aforementioned Election Forecast at fivethirtyeight rocks and Nate Silver gives a real school about polling and minutia.
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/
This poll is BIASED.
100% of adults qualified as registered voters in this poll. By comparison, in 2008, according to the Statistical Abstract, only 69% of the voting age population in VA was registered.
And, 72% of these so-called registered voters qualified as likely voters. By comparison, in 2008, according to the Statistical Abstract, in 2010, only 64% of the voting age population (VAP) in VA actually voted.
So, these results are essentially a snapshot of what the Presidential election results would be IF EVERYONE OVER 18 IN VIRGINIA REGISTERED & 3 in 4 VOTED!
The poll asked people to identify their party affiliation. 36% claimed to be Democrats, 27% Republicans, 28% Independent, and 9% other. In June of 2012, Gallup did a poll in Virginia and asked about party affiliation. They numbers they saw were 35% Republican, 34% Democrat, and 30% Independent. That suggests that perhaps the Roanoke College poll sampled more Democrats and fewer Republicans. Since Virginia doesn’t register voters by party, it is all speculation but I suspect the election in Virginia will be much closer than this poll suggests.
I’m sure some of the women that were polled saw this:
http://washingtonexaminer.com/obama-campaign-posts-e-card-vote-like-your-lady-parts-depend-on-it/article/2509594
It must make all the women that “love” obama feel good! This is what he really thinks of you.
Polls are simply a tool to try to sway people. I think for myself. I do not rely on polls. I refuse to participate in these political polls.
The numbers seem a little off to me. First I don’t believe the tidewater region is going to go as strong for Obama as Northern Va, they may be close but unless there has been a shift in the last 4 years I doubt there will be a 4% gap. Secondly I don’t see how southside goes for Obama, 4 years ago a strong democratic congressional candidate helped turn out the liberal vote in the 5th district and Obama still lost by 2%. I don’t see it being that close this time around. Last problem is this, if Romney is only up 4 points in the valley (McCain won the 7th by 15%) he needs to throw in the towel. I don’t believe that for a minute.
Something I noticed in this poll that should making Romney really worried, the percent that were willing to vote for other in southside and swva. I don’t expect Goode to get anywhere near 15% even in those areas but 5% would kill any chance Romney has of winning Va.
Virginia voters should remember that it was Tim Kaine who proposed quite a few furlough days for state employees, and also closed down all of the interstate rest areas due to economic reasons. It took the current governor McDonnell to have to come along, fix those things, and McDonnell has also balanced the state budget once again to where we have a surplus. Electing Democrats in Virginia will result in having the state’s good credit record taken away, which almost happened under Kaine. Think carefully when you go to the polls and vote. Don’t be fooled by smooth-talking Democrats!
“It’s that thrill going up the leg” feeling that libs get to quote Chris Matthews.
I’m suspicious about adding 20% cell phones to the data. I would bet that the majority of those cell phones were answered by younger voters than older. Thus, the sample was skewed towards the younger respondant, and probably bolstered Obamas numbers. I simply doubt that older folks are going to answer their cell phone when its from a strange number; especially one that calls several times and never leaves a message.
#18 Larry H, why don’t you go into more detail about the smoke and mirrors McD used to “balance” the budget. For one, how much money will taxpayers owe the state pension fund?
But, hey, I sure am glad I have more dumpy-looking state-sponsored places to pee along the interstate. Takes business away from private enterprises at exits. That’s what right wingers, want, right?
One reader e-mailed to point out that the poll shows Romney winning independents, yet Obama winning overall — which is a curiosity.
Badger_hoo (or anyone else): I know the issue of including cellphones is a big one among pollsters, and yes, the feeling is that cellphone users skew younger (which would favor Obama). So if you’re going to factor in cellphone users, what percentage should they be included at? Roanoke College puts them in at 20 percent. I ran a quick Google search and was surprised to find these figures:
* A survey by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s National Center for Health Statistics in 2011 found that more than 26% of Americans are now cellphone only:
http://usatoday30.usatoday.com/tech/news/2011-04-20-cellphone-study.htm
Surely it varies state by state, but 20% would sure be lower than 26%, which would suggest that this poll actually UNDERSTATES the cellphone-only voters.
Of course, the more people you get with only cellphones, the broader the demographic spectrum — i.e., it won’t just be young people anymore, which would presumably reduce any skew toward Obama.
Now, as for how many people actually answer their cellphone when a strange number rings, I have no clue. I’ve gotten several calls from pollsters on my cellphone and I’ve disconnected each one.
In any case, these numbers are interesting to dissect, but there’s a much more important poll coming up November 6 that we all get to participate in if we choose.
– Dwayne Yancey, senior editor
I know Republicans get bent all out of shape when they see what they think is too many Dems being sampled in a poll, but this morning on NPR a REPUBLICAN pollster said that polling goes in cycles and that polls end up with too many of something or other all the time. According to this REPUBLICAN pollster, there’s no grand conspiracy.
That said, I’m generally with the people who don’t pay attention or put much credence in them.
16 – Absolutely.
Poll questions can be worded, and results manipulated, to get whatever results you want. Anyone who has studied basic statistics in college (as I have) knows this.
In many cases (especially polls conducted by certain media outlets)…these polls are being used to discourage voters from going to the polls. “Why bother, if Obama’s going to win anyway…my vote isn’t going to make any difference”.
The ONLY poll that matters is November 6th. Remember that. And remember that Virginia is a key swing state…and may be THE state that decides this election.
All of these polls are biased, don’t believe any of them. Just get out and vote when the time comes and the chances are very good that we can get this current administration out of the White House. Four more years of this indecision and deficit spending out of control and this country will suffer damage that cannot be reversed.
If people want to know what I stand for, they can look at my record as governor.” ~ Mitt Romney
Let’s see…
Under Gov. Romney, Massachusetts fell to 47th out of 50 in job creation:
Before Romney’s time as governor, Massachusetts ranked 36th out of 50 in job creation, but over the course of his tenure the state ranked a dismal 47th out of 50—even as the national economy was growing. The Bay State only beat Michigan, Ohio, and Louisiana—which was still recovering from the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina.
Gov. Romney created or raised over 1,000 taxes and fees:
Though he promised he wouldn’t raise taxes as governor, he increased taxes and fees by as much as $750 million per year, leaving the average taxpayer to pay an extra $1,227 in state and local fees and taxes. During his first year in office, Romney raised fees on milk, driver’s licenses, hospitals, nursing and barber licenses, and even on the blind.
Gov. Romney left behind a huge budget deficit:
Romney broke his pledge to balance the budget and left his successor, Gov. Deval Patrick, with a $1 billion budget deficit. Long-term debt increased by 16% over Romney’s four-year term, and he left Massachusetts with the highest debt per person in
the nation.
Yes, all the polls are biased. All of them. I wonder if there would be a change of tune if Romney was ever once leading. I suspect so.
TOR, I would say the truth is diametrically opposite of what you’re saying. It’s far more likely that Obama’s positive polling will result in his supporters not bothering to vote because they think he already has it in the bag.
Don’t know how accurate any poll is. However, if you’re arguing Roanoke College is biased, they’d be more conservative than liberal. Check out the comments published by several professors there over the years in RT. I don’t believe this poll is biased. It may be inaccurate, but not biased.
27 – one can only hope…