Is this the October Surprise?
Weather journalist Kevin Myatt
So, we’ve all been waiting for the “October Surprise.”
What would it be? An Israeli attack on Iran? A U.S. attack on Iran? Some other big news that completely changes the dynamics of the election?
Or is it . . . the weather?
In his Weather Journal column today, Kevin Myatt looks at a big storm that’s taking shape and could bring snow — yes, snow! — to much of the East Coast.
I call your attention to this line:
“And, of course, its potential timing a week before the presidential election could have national implications, especially if there are still large areas without power or with travel hindrances on Election Day.”
I’ve talked with Kevin and he cautions that there’s still a lot of time for things to take shape, or not — but one scenario does call for the storm to dump snow on parts of Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and elsewhere.
Hmmm. We’ve heard those states in the news a lot lately, now haven’t we?
And even if there’s not snow, there’s likely to be wind, lots of it, too — and we saw this past summer what wind can do to trees and power lines.
So what if some localities in those key swing states are still immobilized on Election Day? Who does that help or hurt?
The short answer is, depends on where they are.
The conventional wisdom for years has been that bad weather hurts Democrats more than Republicans — on the theory that Republican voters are more likely to have cars, while Democratic voters might include a fair number of poor people or older voters who don’t have access to transportation.
The reality, though, is probably far more complex. Older voters, for instance, seem to track more for Romney than Obama. By that reasoning, bad weather would seem to hurt Republicans. On the other hand, bad weather would also seem to depress the voters who are the least enthusiastic about going to the polls — and this year the enthusiasm edge seems to be on the Republican side. So by that score, bad weather would seem to hurt Democrats by giving some of their people another reason not to go to the polls.
Another way to look at it — perhaps a better way — is geographically. Urban areas are more likely to dig out of a storm sooner than rural areas, right? Since rural areas are presumed strong for Romney, that means a blanketing storm would hurt Republicans — their voters would be stuck, while Democrats in the city are moving around and getting to the polls.
On the other hand, let’s invoke the words of the great philosopher, and country musician, Hank Williams Jr.: “A country boy can survive.” I live out in rural Botetourt County. I remember many a storm where I was able to dig out and get to work in downtown Roanoke — only to find the streets in the city a slippery, unsafe mess, with many of my urban colleagues still stuck at home.
Salem, of course, is always the exception; that is the city that, we must remember, sent snow plows into Roanoke one year to clear a path for a team bus to get to the Stagg Bowl because the Star City hadn’t gotten around to the job yet. I have no doubt that streets in Salem will be perfectly clear for Election Day, no matter what!
Anyway, this storm is something to keep an eye on — which can you do over on Kevin’s Weather Journal blog, where he’s posting regular updates. For the record, his latest post ends with this advisory:
“Let’s just keep an eye on it and try not to run with the hype that is inevitable and already ongoing.”
– Dwayne Yancey
October 24, 2012 - 7:36 PM
My bet on an October surprise is that Obama will strike the middle east somewhere since the Libya thing is spiraling out of his control.
They were betting on the Bengahzi debacle being squashed by the media until after the election and now he is up to his elbows in lies and deceit.
October surprise?
Wow, A sitting Virginia democrat congressman’s son advising how to cheat!! Busted!!! But we don’t need strict voter laws or enforcement of them..
http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=gT77qP2Nai8#!
Yesterdays article in the Roanoke Times stated that the United States would be the next Saudi Arabia in OIL…After the Times and all other libs rail against domestic oil production, is there ANYONE that can`t see through this blatant push for Obama ? Christina Nuckols, who writes for this paper just said in an article Sunday that the Times DID NOT back Obama. For those that can`t see through this, see me….you know, the ocean-front property in Kansas, etc.
@3 Jeff Doto:
If the article about oil production was a “blatant push for Obama,” then consider apparently Congressman Morgan Griffith is part of it too: He raised the new oil boom as a point yesterday during a candidates’ forum in Roanoke.
– Mason Adams
One addendum I should have noted in the original post: Early voting. If weather or its after-effects were to depress the vote on election day, that would increase the importance of absentee voting, aka, “early voting.” Accounts vary as to who’s doing the best job on that this time around.
– Dwayne Yancey, senior editor
If the storm remains on the current track, it will severly impact NYC and other north eastern states – overlay that on the red/blue map of the US and it will mostly impact blue states.
2 – No one cares about the voter fraud scandal – that’s why it isn’t front page news.
No one cares that a website belonging to a man in China links directly to the offical Obama website for campaign donations and does not require the proper security screening to prohibit other countries from donating either.
It is now being estimated that foreign countries have contributed upwards of $4.5M to Obama.
#2 – and further more, no one cares that the United Nations’ Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) plans on monitoring our elections.
Let’s just keep on believing in hope and change and loving our eye-candy, president. The rest is just noise to his supporters.
@Mason. I’d like to see you repost your blackswan blog – that was uncanny with regard to Libya.
@ 9 Kathie:
You’re referring to a post that was written by Dwayne Yancey, not me.
You (and others who are interested) can read that post here.
– Mason Adams
No one cares about the Romney funded voting machines or the thrown out voter registrations by a GOP contract group worker, so consider it a wash.
True transparency, on both sides, is a novelty, not a reality.
Belle, you completely dismissed the UN’s vow to participate in our elections.
Unless I am confusing you with someone else I think you have referred to yourself as a Liberterian of sorts, are you are okay with that too – what washes OSCE out for you? What makes this acceptable?
*Libertarian*
Kathie- I am not a fan of the UN and I support cutting most ties with them and any agency working under their umbrella.
I don’t disagree with anything you have brought up; I agree with most, if not all. I was kind of making a tongue-in-cheek point that if the RT was liberally biased than they would make a deal about the two things I mentioned, which they have not. I think they are only as biased as our opinions let them be.
The RT has covered these alleged GOP scandal stories, though – at least in editorials.
As of now, I haven’t seen anything on the Moran scandal (in the son’s case, there should be a second “o” in place of the “a”).
Kathie, there’s a big difference between “monitoring” our election and “partipating” in it.
Kristin, please tell us why you would want the UN monitoring our elections.
Kathie, are you aware that the UN monitors lots of elections? And monitoring remains different from participating.
Kathie, I’ve noticed your schtick is to just throw nonsense up there, then when you’re called on it, change the subject completely or walk away. Let’s please stick to the part where you said the UN was “participating” in our elections. If you genuinely don’t get the difference, that’s fine. But the conversation has completely changed and you might as well acknowledge it.
Kristen, I can see that you intend to divert the conversation from the fact that the UN is trying to insert themselves in the US elections to parsing words.
And yes, you are correct about one thing – sometimes walking away is more effective than replying to mindless drivel.
“Kathie, I’ve noticed your schtick is to just throw nonsense up there”
Assertions without supporting links are balderdash. I would posit the moon is made of green cheese and Romney was born in Australia.
Poor, poor dear Art… Give up the ‘me too’ I agree with ‘what she said’.
I see that you want to continue talking about the messenger. Art, let’s try this again. What do you think about the UN sending people to the US to ‘monitor’ our elections (for you Kristen, maybe you can give a straight answer too).
I am sure the US can rest easy knowing that our elections will be resided over by people who insure fair elections around the world, as Kristen says. Yea, Kristen, in places like Iran and Venezuela.
Why not get them to bring along their help from members of the UN Human Rights Council, like Nigeria, Cuba, Saudi Arabia and China.
America needs to start ‘monitoring’ the money we give to the UN.
Before Kristen goes off on another parsing of words hissy fit. Let me clarify what she actually said.
18.Kathie, are you aware that the UN monitors lots of elections.
Now, Kristen I suppose this means you are okay with them sticking there nose in our elections too.
*their*
Kathie, so we’ve moved from “participate” to “monitor” to “insert”. Which paranoiac conspiracy-theory nomenclature is correct?
We have nothing to hide in our election process, presumably. I’m sure we’ll survive UN observation with flying colors. Of course, then they’re going to make us all drive Priuses and recycle, but that’s a different problem.
Oh, there are things to hide – the last casualty was Moran’s son here in Virginia – but I, for one, do not want the UN here under any circumstances; so let’s play your game, whether it be as a participant or whatever they consider ‘monitoring’ to entail.
It amazes me how far the left has gone and how many of our freedoms are slipping away piece-by-piece. Reminds me of the frog in a pot of cold water, just turn the heat up slowly…
Wanted to congratulate you on one thing though, Kristin, you’re staying with the playbook pretty well: “Which paranoiac conspiracy-theory nomenclature is correct?”
Rule #4 carries within it the fifth rule: Ridicule is man’s most potent weapon
So predictable tsk…tsk…tsk…
So Kathie…you’ve got nothing. And don’t be judging…some people genuinely are paranoiac conspiracy theorists and they’d take issue with your implication that those terms should be considered insulting.
As for your “I for one don’t want the UN blah blah”…oh well. Wanting ain’t getting.
Kristen, thought you would have a great argument and philosophical retort using big words and all like you do, sweetie.
Time to turn on the ignore button and walk away.
Clearly Kathie does not understand the power or the importance of example. It is what leaders do. America leads the world, what better example of showing our electoral system and democracy works than to allow, even invite “spectators” to send that message to the world?
Do you get it now, or do I need to type slower?
I’ll offer the link because I know you don’t know.
http://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/democracy
Throwing dirt and insults is a lot easier than the truth apparently.
Will someone please replace the rock? Thanks in advance.
Screw the UN..its time we walked away from that debacle and let Trump turn that building into a nice resort. The UN majority constantly votes against the USA…they are for a `one-world` government and it ain`t gonna fly….disband it and send `em packin` !
#4 sorry Mason..I`ve been busy…Look, its real simple….take a 360 degree spin anywhere you are and just take a look…everything you see had oil in its production at some point…Yes, even the Count Chockula you`re eating was produced by oil-bearing machinery…Liberals…if you don`t like oil, go and drain it from your cars and let me know how that works for you…You can just ride your bikes(oil based production equipment) everywhere you go !(don`t forget to keep the sprocket chain well OILED)
Sandi, how about this power of example: how about we show the world what we think of the UN by cutting all funds as a great example of what we think of them.
How about Obama being an example for the transparency he promised in 2008 and adding the same security levels to donations on his website that he does for the credit card purchase of a bumpersticker.
How about Obama telling America what really happened in Benghazi instead of dodging the question when the few in the media actually ask a tough question – that would be a great example of leadership.
And of course there’s his great example of professionalism and respect for the highest office in our land – his use of profanity on public airwaves.
So, Sandi – not sure how fast you can type but I am sure you can comprehend what you read… save your ‘truth telling’ mantra for another day.
Any example is wasted on some people. Kathie, you choose your state of being, there is nothing I (or anyone else) can say or do to help it.
We do not lead the world by bullying it or the UN.
Obama is as much of an example of transparency as any President we have ever had. That the obstructive and destructive Congress has fought him and harmed this nation made much of his plan inoperable. How he accepts credit cards is hardly worthy of mentioning, but par for your course.
The investigation of Benghazi is ongoing and the hearings will give us all we will ever know. I am truly sorry that you think so much power lies in the hands of any president, You are destined for disappointment on every level.
Profanity? Really? Are you 12? You would not know the truth if it bit your bitter partisan profanity.
You support an immoral, lying, Wall Street shark, tax avoiding, cult member and you speak of my “mantra”? Wow.
The coverup is on-going with regard to Bengahzi, but whistle blowers are beginning to get the facts out so Obama and Hillary won’t be able to keep the lid on this one until after the election.
Ty Woods’ father spoke directly to Obama tonight and it will go viral.