A closer look at the 10 a.m. turnout figures in Roanoke; danger signs for Democrats
As noted earlier, turnout in Roanoke is down significantly from four years ago.
Overall, that’s a worrisome sign for Democrats, since Roanoke is a Democratic stronghold.
Burrow a bit deeper, and here’s what you’ll find: Turnout is down in almost every precinct, so it’s down in both Democratic and Republican strongholds — though still bad news for Democrats since there are more of the former than the latter.
Let’s look at it this way. Here are Obama’s strongest precincts in Roanoke in 2008, and a comparison of the 10 a.m. turnout figures then and the 10 a.m. figures this year:
* Eureka Park (Obama 98%) – 480 then, 414 now
* Melrose (Obama 97%) – 417 votes in 2008, 314 now
* Lincoln Terrace (Obama 95%) – 394 then, 328 now
* Villa Heights (Obama 94%) – 549 then, 334 now
* Westside (Obama 86%) : 501 then, 360 now
* Highland No. 1 (Obama 83%): 293 then, 253 now
* Washington Heights (Obama 76%) – 1,363 then, 696 now
THEN: 3,997.
NOW: 2,699
So the vote in Obama’s strongest areas is down 1,328 — or 33 percent.
Now let’s move over to the strongest Republican areas:
* South Roanoke 2 (McCain 59%) – 784 then, 775 now
* Garden City (McCain 57%) — 693 then, 346 now
* Lee-Hi(McCain 58%) – 1,092 then, 724 now
* Williamson Road 2 (McCain 55%) –357 then, 309 now
* Monterey (McCain 55%) — 556 then, 722 now (yes, up!)
* Williamson Road 6 (McCain 54%) — 437 then, 349 now
* South Roanoke 1 (McCain 54%) – 875 664 then, 476 now
THEN: 4,794 4,583
NOW: 3,701
So in the city’s most Republican precincts, the vote is down 1,093 882 — or 23 percent. 19 percent.
UPDATE: We’ve discovered the report we were working from had transposed the 10 a.m. and 3 p.m. turnout for South Roanoke No. 1. These figures are adjusted accordingly, but don’t change the overall point.
Bottom line: Since the 10 a.m. figures in neighboring Roanoke County, a Republican locality, show turnout down from four years ago, maybe it’s safe to wager than overall turnout is going to be lower. In that case, the question becomes — where is it down the most? Looking at these numbers from the city, both sides ought to be concerned, but the Democrats ought to be concerned more.
That’s my reading of things.
– Dwayne Yancey
November 6, 2012 - 1:36 PM
I haven’t voted yet. 4 o clock! It’s too early.
I fail to see the correlation.Is that the best you got?
I don’t know how your Garden City numbers could be right. Since 6 am the line has been going out the door. 1 of the 4 machines was out of service, so maybe it’s just taking longer to get everyone through…
Perhaps the+7-11%weigh to the Dems is not accurate by the pollsters. It appears the Obama numbers are way off in Roanoke. I have a feeling that trend will be nationally.
more jobs in 2012 than there was in the 2008 election. give them time to get off work.
The Democrats are in a heap of trouble in Roanoke, in Virginia and in the USA. The people are speaking loudly through this election; time to give the country back to America and get rid of the socialism.
Perhaps the implementation of the new voter ID law is slowing things down, thus accounting for the across-the-board (ok, except one precinct) dropoff in turnout _by 10 AM_? Just sayin’.
Not sure where you voted, but lines at Monterey have been out the door all day.
Dwayne, I don’t really see the logic and here is why: the areas that went for McCain were only slightly over 50% – So those numbers in the “republican” precincts have a 50/50 shot (almost) of representing democratic votes, right? Whereas the democratic strongholds are likely all 90% or better democratic votes. Or at least that’s the way I’m reading that.
Why does it say McCain is getting the votes for the republican areas?
JUST WAIT TILL WE GET OFF WORK AND THEN SEE WHAT THE NUMBERS LOOK LIKE!
Ok, nevermind. I see, that’s from 4 years ago.
gooooooooooooooooooooo Romney & Ryan !!! This country needs a change !
Miriam — the figures you reference show how weighted Roanoke is toward the Democrats. In 2008, Obama polled 90-percent plus in his best precincts; McCain polled 50-cent plus in his best precincts. Overall, of course, Obama carried Roanoke then — and, barring some disaster for the Democrats — will surely carry Roanoke again. The question is, by what margin does he carry it? If these 10 a.m. numbers translate into final numbers — often they do, sometimes they don’t — that would mean Roanoke would contribute fewer votes to Obama’s statewide totals — which would become important the closer the statewide tally is.
When Democrats look at Roanoke from a statewide perspective, their goal is to come out of the Star City with as big a margin as they can. When Republicans look at it, they want to hold down that margin as much as possible. These 10 a.m. numbers would suggest the Republicans are getting their wish more than the Democrats are.
– Dwayne Yancey, senior editor
@9 Miriam:
I’m not Dwayne, but it looks to me like you’re reading his analysis as trying to determine from the turnout so far (which is speculative at best) not who is going to win Roanoke. Unless it’s a huge Republican blowout, Obama should easily win the city based on pure demographics.
I think Dwayne is looking more at turnout for the purposes of trying to track how much of a margin Obama may build here versus 2008. Roanoke is the biggest city — and source of Democratic-leaning voters — in western Virginia. If Obama wins with less of a margin than he did in ’08, and but loses by more of a margin in the surrounding, Republican-leaning counties, that bodes well for Romney.
Does that make sense?
– Mason Adams
How many absentee ballots cast? Not sure your conclusion is supported by your data.
This is the Roanoke Times way of telling the Democrats to get out and vote.
@ 17 Local Guy:
When Dwayne said low turnout in Roanoke County was “worrisome” for Republicans, a commenter cited it as bias toward Democrats.
Dwayne writes that low turnout in certain city precincts signals “danger signs” for Democrats, and you write we’re telling Democrats to go vote.
At least our commenters are consistent.
– Mason Adams
Thank you Dwayne and Mason, that clarifies for me what the original post is driving at. I appreciate it!
Go Obama!!!! Four more years!!!!
If there is an hour long wait at 630pm, do they allow everyone to still vote? In other words, if you are in lone by 6:59, do they everyone vote? Or at 7pm it’s closed regardless?
Just voted at Monterey about a hour ago we had to wait over a hour, and were glad to do so. Such a small price for freedom. I can’t remember ever having to wait that long. I can,t tell folks minds but it seemed to be a Romney crowd.
@ 21 belle:
I may be wrong, and Mike Sluss will likely address this in a post, but my understanding is the State Board of Elections rule is that if you’re in line at 7 p.m., you get to vote.
– Mason Adams
22 – Monterey went 55% for McCain in 2008…so your observation is probably correct. That was my precinct when I lived in Roanoke City for a number of years. It went Republican nearly every election that I recall.
23 – That’s my understanding as well – as long as you’re in line at 7, you get to vote.
belle, I asked the polling place I voted at today and as long as you are in line by 7:00pm, they will let you vote. After that, they will turn you away at the back of the line.
Thanks, guys. I have always wondered that and since there seems to be waiting across the board, I thought it was a pertinent question.
Yeah, me too belle. That is the exact reason I asked when I was there. Something I always had wondered about.