For the first time tonight, Barack Obama has edged ahead in Virginia.

The State Board of Elections site now has Obama up by 3,375 votes.

However, the state board site doesn’t report any figures from Frederick County, one of the biggest Republican localities still outstanding. However, the New York Times reports 95 percent of the vote in Frederick is in, and Romney has a 10,537-vote margin there.

That would put Romney back up by 7,162 votes.

However, most of what’s out beyond that is in strongly Democratic areas — mostly Norfolk and Portsmouth, which ought to easily wipe out that margin.

About one-third of Virginia Beach is still out, and it’s breaking strong for Romney. It’s hard to make projections on margins there this time because last time Obama carried the beach. Right now, with two-thirds of the vote in, Romney has a margin there of 13,397 votes. He’ll likely expand that — but will it be enough to counter Norfolk and Portsmouth.

Or the wild card of all the localities that still haven’t released absentee numbers.

So Virginia is going to go down to the wire, although the odds seem to point to Obama carrying the Old Dominion in a squeaker. We’ll see.