Let’s do some math.
Usually the State Board of Election is the most reliable place to get numbers on election night but, for tonight it’s run slower than others.
At the moment, the Virginia Public Access Project appears to have the most up-to-date number. With 87.9% of the vote in, VPAP shows Romney with a 15,210-vote margin in the state.
However, VPAP shows Frederick County still out, but the New York Times has already reported that Romney has taken a 10,537-vote margin there.
Add that in, and that pushes Romney’s margin back up to 25,747 votes.
But all of Norfolk remains out, and, as previously noted, last time it delivered a 38,000-vote margin to Obama. No guarantee it will this time, of course, but it’ll surely deliver something.
Perhaps more importantly, there are no strong Republican localities still outstanding, except for tiny Craig County. Everything that’s still out is in a locality that Obama is winning — except for Prince William County, which is essentially a tie.
I don’t see how Romney’s margin can stand up.
If somehow it does, he can surely credit the huge margins he’s gotten out of the coalfields. But the safe betting right now would be that Obama carries Virginia.