We’re at the point in the night where we need to start asking: What’s still out?
Right now, with 82 percent of the vote in, Romney clings to a 50% to 48% lead over Obama statewide — a margin of about 50,000 votes. Meanwhile, Democrat Tim Kaine has edged ahead of Republican George Allen in the Senate race, 50.2% to 49.5%.
So what’s still out?
* All of Norfolk. That’s a big Democratic locality. Last time, Obama carried Norfolk handily, piling up a margin of 38,005 votes.
* All of Portsmouth, another big Democratic locality, which last time voted 69% for Obama, with a margin of 18,343 votes.
Those who places alone could wipe out Romney’s statewide margin.
* Most of Virginia Beach, where Romney is currently leading 56% to 43%. This is a locality that Obama carried by about 2,000 votes last time.
* About half of Alexandria, where Obama is winning 69% to 29%. Last time, Obama took a margin there of 31,292; right now, he’s got a margin of 14m058 there.
* More than half of Fairfax County, where Obama is winning 58% to 41%. Last time, Obama’s margin there was almost 110,000 votes; right now, he’s at 32,994 there.
* More than half of Prince William County, where Romney and Obama are locked in a tight race. At the moment, Romney is ahead there by 337 votes.
* All of Martinsville, which is obviously a lot smaller than those places, but which last time voted 63% for Obama.
And then, of course, there are some scattered rural areas still out. The strongest Republican area still out is Frederick County, which last time delivered a 7,188-margin for McCain.
UPDATE: The New York Times reports most of the vote in Frederick County is in, and it’s delivered a 10,537-vote margin for Romney.
If those localities vote the way they usually do, it’s hard to see how Romney’s margin can stand up.