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What’s still out in Virginia and why that’s bad for Romney

We’re at the point in the night where we need to start asking: What’s still out?

Right now, with 82 percent of the vote in, Romney clings to a 50% to 48% lead over Obama statewide — a margin of about 50,000 votes. Meanwhile, Democrat Tim Kaine has edged ahead of Republican George Allen in the Senate race, 50.2% to 49.5%.

So what’s still out?

* All of Norfolk. That’s a big Democratic locality. Last time, Obama carried Norfolk handily, piling up a margin of 38,005 votes.

* All of Portsmouth, another big Democratic locality, which last time voted 69% for Obama, with a margin of 18,343 votes.

Those who places alone could wipe out Romney’s statewide margin.

* Most of Virginia Beach, where Romney is currently leading 56% to 43%. This is a locality that Obama carried by about 2,000 votes last time.

* About half of Alexandria, where Obama is winning 69% to 29%. Last time, Obama took a margin there of 31,292; right now, he’s got a margin of 14m058 there.

* More than half of Fairfax County, where Obama is winning 58% to 41%. Last time, Obama’s margin there was almost 110,000 votes; right now, he’s at 32,994 there.

* More than half of Prince William County, where Romney and Obama are locked in a tight race. At the moment, Romney is ahead there by 337 votes.

* All of Martinsville, which is obviously a lot smaller than those places, but which last time voted 63% for Obama.

And then, of course, there are some scattered rural areas still out. The strongest Republican area still out is Frederick County, which last time delivered a 7,188-margin for McCain.

UPDATE: The New York Times reports most of the vote in Frederick County is in, and it’s delivered a 10,537-vote margin for Romney.

If those localities vote the way they usually do, it’s hard to see how Romney’s margin can stand up.

Join the conversation [ADD A COMMENT]

1 COMMENT

  1. hokie hater | November 6, 2012 at 10:47 pm

    I’ll be so happy to see Romney lose Virginia.

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About this blog

The Blue Ridge Caucus is written by Roanoke Times newsroom staffers including Dave Ress, Chase Purdy and Dwayne Yancey. The blog covers all things politics, especially west of Virginia’s capitol, with historical perspective on issue and positions, and money and campaign finance.

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