Will Democrats ever again set foot west of Radford?
That’s somewhat of a rhetorical question but it’s rooted in this reality: The Democratic base in Southwest Virginia appears to have evaporated.
Virginia Democrats once relied on a three-part strategy, geographically speaking: They needed big numbers out of the state’s urban areas and other localities with a large African-American population; they needed to try to win Northern Virginia, and they needed to run up big numbers in the coalfields.
Admittedly, they numbers in the coalfields were small, but the margins were large.
Even in the worst of times, Virginia Democrats could count on the coalfields.
No more.
Over the past few elections, we’ve seen the realignment of far Southwest Virginia. Al Gore and his environmentalism played uneasily in the coalfields; this year, Republicans very effectively portrayed President Obama as waging a “war against coal.” And, of course, the realignment of the coalfields fits within the larger national pattern of Democrats losing ground with white, working-class voters — but making up ground elsewhere, among younger voters, growing minorities, and certain types of suburban voters.
Last night, the only locality Obama carried west of Roanoke was Radford. Montgomery County, which went for Obama in 2008, flipped ever so slightly to Romney.
More and more, we’re seeing Democrats focus on not just winning Northern Virginia (which used to be their problem) but running up big numbers there (Obama took 59% in Fairfax County, for instance, and nearly 57% in Prince William County). And as the population there continues to grow so much faster than the population in Southwest Virginia (which sometimes grows, sometimes shrinks), well, the numbers tell the tale, don’t they?
Last night, we posted some numbers showing how the coalfield vote has switched from Democratic to Republican over the past three election cycles. Here’s an update, which goes back to include the 1988 presidential returns — a year in which Michael Dukakis didn’t fare well nationally, or even statewide, but still ran up big numbers in far Southwest Virginia.
Notice how much the share of the Democratic vote has fallen:
Dickenson County:
1988: Dukakis 58.7%, Bush 40.06%
2004: Kerry 50.8%, Bush 48.4%
2008: McCain 49.2%, Obama 48.5%
2012: Romney 61.93%, Obama 35.82%
Buchanan County:
1988: Dukakis 63.2%, Bush 35.7%
2004: Kerry 53.7%, Bush 45.8%
2008: McCain 51.9%, Obama 46.5%
2012: Romney 66.69%, Obama 32.08%
Lee County:
1988: Dukakis 54.2%, Bush 45.1%
2004: Bush 57.9%, Kerry 40.1%
2008: McCain 63.1%, Obama 34.8%
2012: Romney 71.3%, Obama 26.9%
Norton
1988: Dukakis 55.9%, Bush 42.7%
2004: Bush 51%, Kerry 48.2%
2008: Obama 49.2%, McCain 49.1%
2012:Romney 59.9%, Obama 38%
Russell County:
1988: Dukakis 57.9%, Bush 40.7%
2004: Bush 53.2%, Kerry 45.2%
2008: McCain 55.6%, Obama 42.9%
2012: Romney 67.7%, Obama 30.7%
Tazewell County:
1988: Dukakis 52.4%, Bush 46%
2004: Bush 57.4%, Kerry 41.1%
2008: McCain 65.6%, Obama 32.8%
2012: Romney 78%, Obama 20.63%
Wise County
1988: Dukakis 52.4%, Bush 46.2%
2004: Bush 58.2%, Kerry 40.5%
2008: McCain 63.0%, Obama 35.3%
2012: Romney 73.7%, Obama 25.0%
So the question is, could some future Democrat turn this around? Or will the party even bother, since the coalfields are now clearly unnecessary for the party in a statewide race?
One more little fact: In 1988, Dukakis came out of the coalfields with a margin of about 9,100 votes. Last night, came out of Prince William County in Northern Virginia with a margin of 23,484 votes.
November 7, 2012 - 1:55 PM
Southwest va. , like the Republican Party it has espoused, becomes more irrelevant with each passing day. Continuing to live in the past cerntury
(way back in the past century) will just further isolate the people there and mire them deeper into poverty. Until that portion of the state stops allowing itself to be taken in by dinosaurs like Morgan Griffith and stops drinking whatever it is that the coal mine operators are feeding it
there will be no prosperity, no growth, and its best and brightest will continue to leave for better opportunities elsewhere. It has become more and more like the backwater portions of Mississippi with each passing year.. When all the mountaintops are finally leveled, the streams polluted
and the resources depleted, it will stand as a monumental wasteland and a symbol of futility.
Did you ever stop to think that SWVA doesn’t want to look like NOVA or Richmond, or Norfolk? We are demographically different. Personally I don’t want the inner city decay of Richmond. You don’t spend much time in Richmond. Better lock your car doors. SWVA is the hope of Virginia from becoming annexed by the Northeast. Sorry, Dave you can keep your urban concrete jungle.
who won?
No one won Don. America lost.
Jason
Show me where I said SWVA should become another NOVA. I don’tthink that at all. B ut as long as it continues to labor under the fog of its ties to coal mines, it will be a second rate environment in which to live and own or run a business. And the Republicans are playing on that irrational attachment to coal to keep themselves in power.
Jason @#2: There can’t be inner city decay until years after there has been an inner city created. Do you really see that happening anywhere in SWVA?
Dave is correct in his assessment. There seems to be a real desire for the residents to embrace the failed industry of the past, like Mississippi clinging to cotton. It’s a self destructive nature, and the fear of change from that doomed industry.
The most ironic thing is that the residents in far SW Va cling to support of politicians like Griffith that do everything possible to make life worse for their constituents. Other than sit in Big Coal executive offices and collect donor checks, what has Morgan Griffith done since being elected? I know he’s tight with the RT, but seriously, he’s done nothing except work to worsen conditions for his district.
I agree with Dave on his analysis. Coal country VA is at a crossroad in the same way south side was with textile in the late 80′s. Until this Cycle even the GOP was pushing for Natural Gas, other fuels, and that we need clean coal etc., but when they saw votes they changed tune. Like all other Wars on (Insert your political issue) the GOP will forget coal country just as fast as they embraced it. Well until 2016 if VA is in play.
To the question… Yes, at some point it will swing back, but how long will it take?
I don’t think it will swing back, just as I don’t expect the Solid South to ever swing back Democratic. The only exception for the South would be much heavier Hispanic population, which is possible, but not likely.
The ironic thing is that if Clean Coal were embraced, it would further the mining industry in the region. The problem is if you say ‘clean coal’ to anybody in coal country, you’re practically taking your life in your hands. They absolutely refuse to even listen to the possibility, much less learn the reality.
I think the Southside textile/furniture analogy is a very apt one. Those guys still wish the plants would open back up, as opposed to alternative manufacturing.
Maybe SWVA bitterly clings to their coal because they have nothing else. If Obama magically decreed that a large government unicorn-and-rainbow-manufacturing facility be built there, bringing jobs and some revitalization, they would probably swing back Dem. Until that happens, all they have is coal and maybe trout fishing.
There were other options both installed & being developed, especially under the influence of Rick Boucher. That was tossed out the window because Griffith’s Tea Party daddies ran enough commercials about coal that everything else was tossed out the window, except clinging to the past. Now, it’s back to the past.
I nominate sw virginia to join either Ky,Or WV They would seem to like the politics of those places better. ( a voter in Bath county)
More persons are likely employed directly and indirectly by higher education (Virginia Tech, Radford University, Roanoke College, UVa-Wise, etc.) than by coal mining now in SWVA. Unfortunately, though, the voters of the 9th district chose to cling to the past embodied by Morgan Griffith instead of the future possiblities vigorously promoted by Rick Boucher.
Some of what has been said about SW Virginia is indeed true, but please dont categorize us all slack-jaw yokels. There are many energetic progressives down here, and not everyone is a one issue voter. Don’t forget, Anthony Flaccavento did far better than expected, averaging 10 percentage points higher than President Obama in the district. To me, those are promising numbers for 2014 if he decides to run again. However, if we dont get any support from the more bluer parts of the state, (we had to travel 3 hours to obtain Obama yard signs), then yes, all is hope is lost.
I don’t think that SW Virginia as a whole can be convinced that they matter to Democrats. It is not reality, but it is the reality they bought.