I’ve thought a lot about this phenomenon and there are no simple answers. Since Virginia only elects three statewide offices, and one of them is guaranteed not to run for governor the next time, that leaves two officials who are automatically at the top of the heap for the next cycle. From a certain perspective, the ideal scenario for a downballot nominee is to have his or her partisan companion lose, in order to smooth the way to the general election, like we say in the ’81, ’97, and ’05 elections.

The person who defers on the races often gives off an air of weakness, whether it is explicit or implicit. That can’t be helpful. Ultimately, it’s probably best to take the plunge and run. Richard Davis and John Hager both lost their bids for governor, but whose to say they would have been better off waiting? Kilgore might have stepped aside for Hager, but it’s a huge risk to take.

Politics is often right time, your turn. It is said that “deserving Republicans wait their turn”. It explains Mitt Romney winning the nomination when he did. John McCain is another example. Bob Dole, anyone? Waiting your turn does not turn out so well it seems.