The latest Quinnipiac poll for the gubernatorial race, putting Terry McAuliffe’s support at 43 percent to Ken Cuccinelli’s 38 percent bucks a recent trend of poll results.
It also a reminder of that poll results vary widely – earlier this month, in polling covering almost exactly the same days, The Washington Post poll reported a huge Cuccinelli lead while the NBC Marist called it a dead heat.
Hmm. They are all supposed to be accurate within a few percentage points, aren’t they?
Looking for clues about who to count on, Blue Ridge Caucus made a quick revisit to polls from the final weeks of the 2012 election. There, too, results were all over the map — five predicted an Obama win, three a Romney win and one calling a tie. Only two came close to Obama’s 3.9 percentage point Obama victory margin.
But don’t expect a hint as to who’s right now. One of the two closest polls for the 2012 vote was the Democratic-leaning PPP poll and the other was the Washington Post poll. Now, the Post has a 10 point Cuccinelli margin and PPP a 5 point McAuliffe margin.
Just as a reminder, here’s what the pollsters’ latest results say:
Quinnipiac: McAuliffe 43 percent, Cuccinelli 38 percent (May 8 – May 13)
NBC News/Marist: Cuccinelli 45 percent, McAuliffe 42 perecent (April 28-May 2)
Washington Post: Cuccinelli 51 percent, McAuliffe 41 percent (April 29-May 2)
Roanoke College: Cuccinelli 35 percent, McAuliffe 27 percent (April 8-14)
University of Mary Washington: McAuliffe 38 percent, Cuccinelli 37 percent (March 2024)
Christopher Newport University: McAuliffe 31 percent, Cuccinellu 30 percent (Han 14-20)
PPP: McAuliffe 46 percent, Cuccinelli 41 percent (Jan 4-6)