The Republican ticket. From left: Mark Obenshain (attorney general), Ken Cuccinelli (governor), E.W. Jackson (lieutenant governor). Photo by Kyle Green, The Roanoke Times.

So, the big news out of the weekend’s Republican convention was the surprise nomination of E.W. Jackson, a Chesapeake attorney and minister, for lieutenant governor. That the party tilted to the right wasn’t a surprise, especially in a convention setting. Any of the other likely GOP candidates would have been pretty conservative, too. But the selection of the little-known Jackson — a Tea Party favorite who topped various Republican office-holders — was the surprise.

I’ve put on my historian’s hat and here are three questions that come to mind:

* What’s the right historical parallel here for Jackson’s nomination? Thrice before, major parties in Virginia have nominated African-Americans for statewide office (although, it should be noted, Jackson disdains that designation.) Is this more analagous to the Democrats fielding Doug Wilder for lieutenant governor in 1985 (let’s set aside his gubernatorial campaign in 1989; by then he was already a statewide office-holder) or the Republicans nominating Maurice Dawkins for the U.S. Senate in 1988?

If those are the only choices, neither quite fits. Dawkins, like Jackson, was little-known to the general public in 1988; but he also was going up against Chuck Robb, at the height of his popularity. We don’t know yet who Jackson’s Democratic opponent will be but, to borrow a phrase, whoever it is, he won’t be any Chuck Robb. In that regard, Jackson might come closer to the Wilder example, who was clearly the weakest of the three Democratic candidates in 1985 but prevailed when his ticket-mates swept into office in what was a good year for his party. One key difference, of course: Wilder was well-known from years of service in the General Assembly, Jackson isn’t. So neither of those parallels are quite parallel, after all.

Two better historical examples might be two white Republican candidates for lieutenant governor — Mike Farris in 1993 and John Hager in 1997. Farris, known as a home-schooling advocate, was the favorite of the GOP convention that year. Democrats successfully portrayed him as too extreme, and he lost in what was otherwise a good year for Republicans (George Allen was elected governor and Jim Gilmore was elected attorney general that year.) Will Democrats be able to make Jackson out as this year’s version of Mike Farris? Or will Jackson be more like Hager? Hager was never considered as far to the right as Jackson apparently is, but he was considered by many to be a weak candidate in 1997, a sure loser to Democrat L.F. Payne, at the time the congressman representing much of Southside Virginia. Except that . . . Gilmore swept to victory as governor, and pulled Hager in with him. Could a big Cuccinelli victory this fall pull in Jackson, too?

Of course, maybe there is no historical parallel. So let’s move on to some other questions:

* Will Jackson’s nomination influence who the Democrats nominate? More to the point, will Democrats now be more inclined to nominate a minority on their ticket — either former technology secretary Aneesh Chopra for lieutenant governor (instead of Norfolk state Sen. Ralph Northam), or former federal prosecutor Justin Fairfax for attorney general (instead of Loudoun County state Sen. Mark Herring)? Given that the Democrats are holding a primary, the short answer is probably “no.” This isn’t a situation where party leaders can get together, figure out a answer, and then send down the word. Primaries don’t work that way; (sometimes conventions don’t, either!). It would be ironic, though, in a historical way if the Republicans wound up nominating a more diverse ticket than the Democrats.

(And since this is the Blue Ridge Caucus blog, let’s make a geographical note, as well: Republicans have nominated a ticket with candidates from Northern Virginia, Hampton Roads, and the Shenandoah Valley; Democrats are certain to have two candidates from Northern Virginia — Terry McAuliffe and both of the AG candidates live there; and if Chopra defeats Northam, then all three Democrats could be from just one part of the state.)

And finally:

* Democrats hope that Jackson’s nomination will underscore how out of the mainstream they believe the Republican ticket it — and serve as the deadweight that brings it down. However, could just the opposite happen? Could it be that Jackson helps make his ticket-mates look more moderate? Republicans have shown no interest in distancing themselves from Jackson — although the Washington Post quoted one over the weekend as saying they now had to go research their own candidate to find out just who they had nominated. Perhaps Jackson will turn out to be a fine candidate, one who brings energy and excitement to the ticket in a way Republicans could not have imagined. And there’s always the chance his Democratic opponent, whoever he is, turns out to be a dud. But, for the sake of discussion, let’s assume Jackson doesn’t work out, that voters come to see him as too extreme. Does that necessarily hurt his ticketmates? Mike Farris didn’t appear to drag down George Allen in 1993. Might any contrast actually help Cuccinelli?

– Dwayne Yancey

The person to receive the Republican Party’s nomination in the Roanoke County race for the Hollins supervisor seat won’t get it because of his political positions, values or months of campaigning.

No. The names will be drawn at random on Tuesday, from a single, dark bag.

After an unusual 389-389 tie at Saturday’s Fire House Primary, the Roanoke County Republican Party convened during the weekend to work out the details on how to choose between Al Bedrosian and Mike Bailey.

David Suetterlein, the chairman of the Roanoke County Republican Committee, said that in the case of a tie the Hollins canvass rules dictate the nomination will be decided by lot. In this case, each candidate will have his name written on five markers, then the 10 markers will be tossed into a “dark bag.”

The committee selected former Republican Party of Virginia chairman Don Huffman to draw the winning marker at a 9:30 a.m. public event at the Roanoke County Administration Building.

The random drawing could carry broad implications about the future temperament of a board expected to make decisions about expensive and far-reaching issues, including stormwater management, at the beginning of the new year. As they came to the polls on Saturday to cast their votes, residents in Hollins chose between candidates who had established themselves as different types of conservatives.

Throughout the campaign, Mike Bailey staked his claims as a middle-of-the-road conservative. Al Bedrosian presented himself to voters as a candidate further to the right.

When the announcement was made that the nominee would be to drawn by lot on Saturday, Bailey immediately voiced his frustration.

“You’re talking about the future of the county being determined by chance,” he had said. “Welcome to leadership. Sometimes you have to make a decision and go with it. I would just be comfortable knowing that an actual decision was made.”

More than 1,300 people turned out to vote Saturday, in the Republican Fire House Primary to decide the GOP nominations in two Roanoke County Board of Supervisors races.

Former supervisor Joe McNamara defeated RoxAnne Christley by a razor-thin margin of five votes, according to numbers released by the party. Meanwhile, in the Hollins district, candidates Al Bedrosian and Mike Bailey are still waiting. Both candidates received 389 votes apiece in that race, leaving them at a dead-tie at 3 p.m.

You can read an overview of what happened Saturday by checking out this story.

What happens next is yet to be decided. According to David Suetterlein, the chairman of the Roanoke County Republican Party, the official rules of the Hollins Supervisor Republican Canvass state that in the case of a tie the party’s executive committee shall “determine by lot” a winner. To clarify, Suetterlein said the winner would be chosen at random. Just how the random pick will proceed remains to be seen.

“There hasn’t been a whole lot of thought as to what would happen if there was a tie,” Suetterlein said, adding that a decision would be made during the weekend.

Already, Mike Bailey has expressed frustration at the nomination being handed out by random chance.

“I’m not comfortable with that,” he said. “You’re talking about the future of the county being determined by chance. I thought maybe they’d have another alternative than that.”

Bailey said he would rather the party’s executive committee come together and cast a vote.

“Somebody has to lead,” he said. “Welcome to leadership. Sometimes you have to make a decision and go with it. I would just be comfortable knowing that an actual decision was made.”

Al Bedrosian was unavailable for comment. Multiple attempts to reach him were unsuccessful.

Terry Austin

So, Buchanan District Supervisor Terry Austin has won the Republican nomination for the House of Delegates seat that’s been held by Del. Lacey Putney, I-Bedford, for more than half a century.

He also won it pretty handily, thanks to a big turn-out — and a crushing margin — on his home turf in Botetourt County. In fact, 85 percent of Austin’s votes came from Botetourt. He barely registered in Bedford County, picking up just 14 votes there.

A few observations seem in order.

First, let’s review the two questions we posted yesterday:

* We wondered Tuesday whether the weather would play a factor in depressing turn-out, especially the flooding around Buchanan, Austin’s home. If the weather did play a factor, one can only wonder how much bigger Austin’s victory would have been.

* We also wondered what role the Alleghany Highlands would play, since they had no dog in the hunt — and some predicted a low turn-out there. Turn-out there was higher than some predicted (though lower than elsewhere). Austin won handily there — 103 votes to 48 for Jim McKelvey, 31 for Zach Martin and 7 for Zachary Hatcher — although the margin didn’t really matter. Austin had all the votes he needed out of Botetourt.

Now that we have some results, a few more observations:

* This was really a three-way race between a pragmatist (Austin), a party regular with lots of big-name endorsements (Martin) and a Tea Party candidate (McKelvey.) The pragmatist won. Whether this suggests a larger trend, or simply reflects the unique status of Austin’s popularity in Botetourt County — where four out of five years he’s been voted “best politician” in the “Best of Botetourt” poll — that’s more difficult to say.

* Here’s another way to look at that: If you assume that many of Austin’s votes came from the general public rather than party insiders, let’s just set him aside altogether. What happens then? McKelvey, the Tea Party candidate, easily outpaced Martin, who was endorsed by state Sen. Steve Newman, R-Lynchburg, and former Sen. and Gov. George Allen, and some other prominent GOP figures. What should we read into that? Two mitigating factors to consider there: McKelvey had the experience of running once before (for Congress, unsuccessfully), while Martin was a youthful 25 years old, so maybe it can’t be interpreted as a straight-up Tea Party vs. regulars thing.

* Austin’s victory could well be tantamount to election. So far, there’s no Democratic candidate in the race, although Joshua Bell is circulating petitions to get on the ballot as the Constitution Party candidate. I’d suspect that Austin’s victory makes it less likely the Democrats will field a candidate. Democrats might not have seen an opening even if the most conservative candidate had won, given the make-up of that district. But Austin’s win would seem to close their window of opportunity, however slight, even more. He was endorsed by the Democratic clerk of court in Botetourt County and, I noticed a massive Austin sign in front of the law office of another prominent Botetourt Democrat.

* Austin’s win also represents a geographic shift, as redistricting has extended that district westward. Consider these facts:

* Bedford County will not have a member of the House of Delegates for the first time since . . . .well, when? Putney was in for 52 years and he replaced another Bedford legislator. How far back would one have to go to find Bedford without a delegate? Or any state legislator, for that matter, since no state senator lives in the county, either.

* Meanwhile, Botetourt would have two delegates. Del. Chris Head, R-Botetourt, lives in the southern part of the county, where three precincts are part of a district that extends to Southwest Roanoke County. That means Botetourt would have twice as many delegates as Roanoke (who has only Democrat Onzlee Ware.) Interestingly, Roanoke County — which has more registered voters than any other locality in Western Virginia — has no delegates residing there, the county being split between districts represented by Head, Ware and Greg Habeeb, R-Salem.

So what’s your take on the results?

– Dwayne Yancey

Terry Austin

Zachary Hatcher

Zach Martin

Jim McKelvey

Republicans in Botetourt County, Alleghany, Covington, and part of Bedford County hold a “firehouse primary” tonight from 6 p.m. to 9 p.m. to pick a candidate for the House of Delegates.

The winner will be the GOP nominee for the seat now held by Del. Lacey Putney, I-Bedford, who is retiring.

Here are the two things I’m wondering:

* Will the weather be a factor? If the rain depresses turn-out any, you’d think that would be bad for Terry Austin, since his campaign is geared more toward ginning up a big vote from the general public, while the others are more focused on party regulars.

UPDATE, 1:13 pm: There’s flooding in parts of northern Botetourt, specifically around Buchanan; we have photos here on our Botetourt County community news site. Since Austin is from Buchanan, you’d think that would be bad news for him in terms of getting out his vote tonight.

* How big will the vote be in the Alleghany Highlands and how will it go? There are many wild cards in this four-way race, but to me, what happens Alleghany County and Covington is one of the biggest.

The district covers part of Bedford County, virtually all of Botetourt County, and then all of Alleghany and Covington. Most of the attention has been focused on Botetourt and Bedford, and not surprisingly.

The incumbent is from Bedford and two of the candidates (Zach Martin and JIm McKelvey) are from there. And Martin has the endorsement of state Sen. Steve Newman, R-Lynchburg, who you’d think would be a factor in Bedford, in particular. So you’d have to think Martin and McKelvey would be the strongest candidates on their home turf.

Meanwhile, Martin also has ties to Botetourt — he grew up there — and Austin is a long-time county supervisor in the county; Hatcher, while less well-known, is also from Botetourt. If Austin hopes to win, he needs a big margin out of his own county, but Martin and McKelvey have been competing strongly there, as well.

And then there are the highlands. I’ve been told by some Republicans to expect very light turn-out there — perhaps no more than 50 or 60 people in all (!!). I’ve also heard that Austin is working the highlands hard, no doubt hoping the Alleghany/Covington plus Botetourt trumps whatever margin that Martin or McKelvey likely run up in Bedford.

How do y’all read this one?

If you’re curious, there are three locations for tonight’s voting: the old Alleghany County Board of Supervisors meeting room in Covington, Lord Botetourt High School and the Thaxton Community Center in Bedford County.

– Dwayne Yancey

Terry Austin

Zachary Hatcher

Zach Martin

Jim McKelvey

Republicans in Botetourt County, Alleghany, Covington, and part of Bedford County hold a “firehouse primary” Tuesday to pick a candidate for the House of Delegates.

The winner will be the GOP nominee for the seat now held by Del. Lacey Putney, I-Bedford, who is retiring.

So far, there is no Democratic candidate — so this firehouse primary could well be tantamount to election — although there might be a Constitution Party candidate on the ballot this fall.

The candidates for the Republican nomination are:

* Buchanan District Supervisor Terry Austin, owner of Austin Electrical.
* Zachary Hatcher, an Eagle Rock pastor and businessman.
* Zach Martin of Goode, business development manager for Moore’s.
* Jim McKelvey, a Moneta businessman.

So, who do you think should get the nomination, and why? Feel free to make your case in the “comment” field below. Here’s a challenge: Can you make your case as a positive — why your candidate should win — and not as a negative — why the other guys should not? I realize that goes against how politics is usually practiced, but let’s just try, shall we?

Zach Martin received an endorsement from former Virginia Governor and US senator George Allen on Tuesday April 16.

Former Sen. and Gov. George Allen is back on the campaign trail today, stumping for Zach Martin, one of the four candidates seeking the Republican nomination for the House of Delegates seat that Lacey Putney, I-Bedford, is vacating.

The other candidates are Buchanan District Supervisor and business owner Terry Austin, Eagle Rock minister Zachary Hatcher, and Moneta businessman Jim McKelvey.

The Republican nominee for the 19th House of Delegates will be chosen at a Legislative District Party Canvas (Firehouse Primary) on Tuesday, May 7, 2013 from 6:00 PM to 9:00 PM at the following locations:

1. Lord Botetourt High School, Daleville, Virginia
2. The Thaxton Community Center, Thaxton, Virginia
3. The Old Alleghany County Board of Supervisors Board Meeting Room, Covington, Virginia

Here’s Allen’s schedule: Read more »

Democratic candidate for governor Terry McAuliffe Monday gave reporters summary tax statements showing his reported earnings from 2009-2011 in an effort to silence Ken Cuccinelli and other Republicans who’ve harangued him for days about releasing those records.

The documents show McAuliffe, a businessman and political fundraiser, made $8.3 million in 2011 from business earnings, investments and other income.

He paid $2.3 million in taxes, an overpayment of more than than $163,600, according to the tax forms.

McAuliffe previously filed a financial disclosure form with the state, as is required of candidates for public office, showing him with assets worth at least $6.7 million.

But until Monday he resisted calls for his tax returns from Cuccinelli, who last week allowed reporters to inspect his tax filings for the past eight years.

Cuccinelli’s paperwork showed an lawyer making six figures in private practice and as publicly-elected state attorney general — he earned $192,279 in 2012.

It has not been a custom for Virginia gubernatorial candidates to release their tax records.

By releasing those documents, McAuliffe spokesman Josh Schwerin said the candidate has gone “above and beyond the disclosure requirements.”

He also said the candidate will release his 2012 tax summaries.

Schwerin then sought to turn the tables on Cuccinelli, calling out the candidate for his own disclosure shortcomings about stock he owned in company, Star Scientific Inc., locked in tax litigation with the state he didn’t initially report.

Cuccinelli’s campaign dismisses that as a paperwork oversight, while McAuliffe’s team casts it as something more sinister and says Cuccinelli should appoint an outside investigator to review inaccuracies on his state disclosure form.

The tax records McAuliffe released are insufficient, countered Cuccinelli spokewoman Anna Nix.

“Lest there be any confusion, tax summaries are not tax returns,” she said.

“Terry McAuliffe needs to come clean with Virginians,” Nix added. “Releasing three years of summaries after Ken Cuccinelli allowed the press to fully examine eight years of returns just isn’t going to cut it. What is Terry hiding?”

-Julian Walker, The (Norfolk) Virginian-Pilot

Jim Crosby of Daleville has withdrawn from the race for the Republican nomination for the House of Delegates and endorsed Moneta businessman Jim McKelvey instead.

Other candidates seeking the nomination are Buchanan District Supervisor Terry Austin, Eagle Rock minister Zachary Hatcher and Zach Martin of Goode, a business development manager with Moore’s.

The district — which covers virtually all of Botetourt, and parts of Alleghany County and Bedford County — is now represented by Del. Lacey Putney, I-Bedford, who is retiring.

Republicans will pick their candidate in firehouse primaries on  Tuesday, May 7.

Here’s a statement from Crosby.

One-by-one, hopefuls for three Roanoke County Board of Supervisors seats Monday submitted their financial disclosure reports, showing the cash they have raised and spent so far in their campaigns.

The money came from all sorts: personal loans, out-of-state entrepreneurs, a hot dog restaurateur, even a tree surgeon. All told, the six candidates have raised more than $15,000 since January 1.

Hollins District

Topping the list of candidates and his own Hollins district, Republican Mike Bailey reported raising $5,630 – about a fifth of which came from the Business Leadership Fund, a Roanoke-based group that spent more than $23,000 in last year’s city council and mayoral races.

Bailey spent $2,378 to purchase signs, postage stamps and other items to propel his campaign forward.

His direct competitor for that district’s GOP nomination, Republican Al Bedrosian, raised $2,822 and spent all but $11 of it.

The sole Independent in that race, Gary Jarrell, raised $200. His race will intensify later in the year, after the May 11 Fire House Primary, and in the months before November.

Windsor Hills District

In the Windsor Hills district, Republican RoxAnne Christley leads the pack in campaign contributions and personal loan money. Since Jan. 1, Christley has raised $3,980 in donations. According the disclosure reports, she also took out a loan of just under $7,000 to help fuel her efforts.

Of all the candidates, her sources for her contributions were the most geographically diverse. Money trickled in from as far south as Blacksburg and as far north as Maryland. She got $250 from Susan Stimpson, who is currently running in the Lieutenant Governor race.

Christley’s expenditures – which sit just over $2,500 – include investments in office supplies, a campaign database, and a car rental to go to “campaign school” in Richmond.

Christley is racing against fellow Republican and former supervisor Joe McNamara for the GOP nomination in that district. According to his records, McNamara took out a $2,700 loan for the race and has raised $1,400. The Business Leadership Fund and the Roanoke County Republican Party contributed to his campaign.

Supervisor Ed Elswick, an Independent running to keep his seat on the board, has raised $916.

Vinton District

The lone candidate for the Vinton District seat, Jason Peters, reported having $750 in cash on hand after taking out a loan for $1,150 and spending $400 of that on his campaign.