The Republican ticket. From left: Mark Obenshain (attorney general), Ken Cuccinelli (governor), E.W. Jackson (lieutenant governor). Photo by Kyle Green, The Roanoke Times.

So, the big news out of the weekend’s Republican convention was the surprise nomination of E.W. Jackson, a Chesapeake attorney and minister, for lieutenant governor. That the party tilted to the right wasn’t a surprise, especially in a convention setting. Any of the other likely GOP candidates would have been pretty conservative, too. But the selection of the little-known Jackson — a Tea Party favorite who topped various Republican office-holders — was the surprise.

I’ve put on my historian’s hat and here are three questions that come to mind:

* What’s the right historical parallel here for Jackson’s nomination? Thrice before, major parties in Virginia have nominated African-Americans for statewide office (although, it should be noted, Jackson disdains that designation.) Is this more analagous to the Democrats fielding Doug Wilder for lieutenant governor in 1985 (let’s set aside his gubernatorial campaign in 1989; by then he was already a statewide office-holder) or the Republicans nominating Maurice Dawkins for the U.S. Senate in 1988?

If those are the only choices, neither quite fits. Dawkins, like Jackson, was little-known to the general public in 1988; but he also was going up against Chuck Robb, at the height of his popularity. We don’t know yet who Jackson’s Democratic opponent will be but, to borrow a phrase, whoever it is, he won’t be any Chuck Robb. In that regard, Jackson might come closer to the Wilder example, who was clearly the weakest of the three Democratic candidates in 1985 but prevailed when his ticket-mates swept into office in what was a good year for his party. One key difference, of course: Wilder was well-known from years of service in the General Assembly, Jackson isn’t. So neither of those parallels are quite parallel, after all.

Two better historical examples might be two white Republican candidates for lieutenant governor — Mike Farris in 1993 and John Hager in 1997. Farris, known as a home-schooling advocate, was the favorite of the GOP convention that year. Democrats successfully portrayed him as too extreme, and he lost in what was otherwise a good year for Republicans (George Allen was elected governor and Jim Gilmore was elected attorney general that year.) Will Democrats be able to make Jackson out as this year’s version of Mike Farris? Or will Jackson be more like Hager? Hager was never considered as far to the right as Jackson apparently is, but he was considered by many to be a weak candidate in 1997, a sure loser to Democrat L.F. Payne, at the time the congressman representing much of Southside Virginia. Except that . . . Gilmore swept to victory as governor, and pulled Hager in with him. Could a big Cuccinelli victory this fall pull in Jackson, too?

Of course, maybe there is no historical parallel. So let’s move on to some other questions:

* Will Jackson’s nomination influence who the Democrats nominate? More to the point, will Democrats now be more inclined to nominate a minority on their ticket — either former technology secretary Aneesh Chopra for lieutenant governor (instead of Norfolk state Sen. Ralph Northam), or former federal prosecutor Justin Fairfax for attorney general (instead of Loudoun County state Sen. Mark Herring)? Given that the Democrats are holding a primary, the short answer is probably “no.” This isn’t a situation where party leaders can get together, figure out a answer, and then send down the word. Primaries don’t work that way; (sometimes conventions don’t, either!). It would be ironic, though, in a historical way if the Republicans wound up nominating a more diverse ticket than the Democrats.

(And since this is the Blue Ridge Caucus blog, let’s make a geographical note, as well: Republicans have nominated a ticket with candidates from Northern Virginia, Hampton Roads, and the Shenandoah Valley; Democrats are certain to have two candidates from Northern Virginia — Terry McAuliffe and both of the AG candidates live there; and if Chopra defeats Northam, then all three Democrats could be from just one part of the state.)

And finally:

* Democrats hope that Jackson’s nomination will underscore how out of the mainstream they believe the Republican ticket it — and serve as the deadweight that brings it down. However, could just the opposite happen? Could it be that Jackson helps make his ticket-mates look more moderate? Republicans have shown no interest in distancing themselves from Jackson — although the Washington Post quoted one over the weekend as saying they now had to go research their own candidate to find out just who they had nominated. Perhaps Jackson will turn out to be a fine candidate, one who brings energy and excitement to the ticket in a way Republicans could not have imagined. And there’s always the chance his Democratic opponent, whoever he is, turns out to be a dud. But, for the sake of discussion, let’s assume Jackson doesn’t work out, that voters come to see him as too extreme. Does that necessarily hurt his ticketmates? Mike Farris didn’t appear to drag down George Allen in 1993. Might any contrast actually help Cuccinelli?

– Dwayne Yancey

Saturday is Thomas Jefferson’s birthday. To mark the occasion, Congressman Morgan Griffith, R-Salem, sends this:

Saturday, April 13 marks the 270th anniversary of the birthday of Thomas Jefferson. In honor of his birth, the Library of Congress invited people to view a display of some items from their collection of original Jefferson documents, the largest such collection in the world.

Congressman Morgan Griffith (R-VA) took time out of his busy schedule today to visit the display and see these items. In the attached photo, Griffith is looking at Jefferson’s Manual of Parliamentary Practice, which was written in 1800. Griffith used a copy of this manual extensively when he served as Majority Leader of the Virginia House of Delegates, and has used it on occasion while serving in the U.S. House of Representatives.

Griffith said, “Happy birthday, Mr. Jefferson.”

Margaret Thatcher, 1925-2013. Courtesy of Chris Collins of the Margaret Thatcher Foundation.

Former British Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher died today. The so-called “Iron Lady” visited Virginia Military Institute in 1992 — this was after she had stepped down. Here’s the story I wrote about her speech on January 25th of that year:

Former British Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher urged Western governments Friday to increase their aid to the former Soviet republics.
“We should be doing this on a larger scale than we’ve thought so far,” she told a crowd of more than 4,400 at Virginia Military Institute.
She said the United States and Europe, after spending four decades standing up to communism, have a moral obligation to help the people of the now-disintegrated Soviet Union avoid starvation.
“They are reaching out, they are crying out for liberty,” Thatcher said. “It didn’t cost us a penny apiece to beat them, to beat communism, to release the people into freedom. No sacrifice, no third World War, no sacrifice of life.
“Wouldn’t it be right for those who love liberty to give them a much greater helping hand when we will have surpluses of food in the United States and Europe? We need to get them through the winter,” so the former Soviet republics can then concentrate on building up democratic institutions.
But she quickly added a geopolitical note: “It is in our interest to do so.”
Thatcher, with a touch of her characteristic sharp-tongued humor, also urged Americans not to fear the emergence of new nations from the rubble of the Soviet system.
“Please do not worry that the Soviet Union is breaking up,” she said. “After all, the British Empire was, at one time, about 1776. And that would have turned out better if I had been there at the time.”
More seriously, Thatcher pointed to the breakup of the British Empire after World War II, giving birth to some 50 nations. She ticked off a list of other doomed empires from history, the Hapsburg Empire, the Ottoman Empire, the Spanish Empire, the Portuguese Empire – even the current demise of Yugoslavia.
“Nations put together artificially will break up,” Thatcher said. “Do not be afraid of it.” Instead, she said Western governments should work with the former Soviet republics to encourage what she considers the bedrock of democracy – private property.
Nevertheless, Thatcher also warned the United States not to cut back its military too much in the wake of the collapse.
“The unexpected won’t stop happening,” Thatcher said. “Tyrants won’t stop being born. The very best assurance . . . that tyrants won’t succeed is to retain your defenses in peak condition,” a line that brought thunderous applause at the 153-year-old military school.
Thatcher spoke at VMI’s basketball arena as part of the school’s distinguished lecture series. Her appearance brought requests for tickets from a dozen states.
Thatcher spent much of her nearly hour-long talk taking the audience on a greatest-hits tour of military crises during her three terms from 1979 to 1990.
She said the lesson was that “if you ever commit your forces, we put our whole weight, whole might, whole economy behind them.”
Thatcher cited her own country’s example when Argentina seized the Falkland Islands in 1982.
She told of being interrupted, late one night during debate in the House of Commons, and told that the Argentine fleet had set sail, likely for the disputed islands.
The response required little debate – at least on her part. “It was one thing I was certain of. If they landed – it was the Queen’s islands, everyone who lived there was British, had been British for 150 years – if they took them, we would recover them.”
Nevertheless, Thatcher said she still marveled at Britain’s ability to project its military power 8,000 miles away – an ability she attributed to her emphasis on defense spending.
But even more impressive, she said, was the response of civilians. Workers at a Scottish factory spent a frantic three weeks fashioning refueling equipment needed for the Falklands war. “They didn’t give a damn the hours they worked, they were doing something for the armed forces,” she said.

We also refer you to our post about the movie about her, starring Meryl Streep, that played at the Grandin Theatre last year.

Black smoke continues to rise from the chimney at the Sistine Chapel, signalling that the cardinals have yet to agree on a new pope.

We don’t know the actual vote — the cardinals are sworn to secrecy on that — but we do know one thing. Unless there was a tie, somebody’s in the lead, and somebody’s in second. And the more balloting that goes on, somebody’s either rising or falling.

I don’t mean to equate what is supposed to be a divinely-inspired selection of the new pontiff with the messy, grubby business of electoral politics, but to the extent that people are involved, well, there are some politics involved. And, historically speaking, there are certain dynamics that take place in multi-candidate, multi-ballot elections.

So back to where we stated the obvious: Somebody finished that first ballot in the lead and somebody was in the second. At that point, there’s the expectations game. Yes, Candidate A finished first, but did they meet or exceed expectations? If they did, does that mean they’re the candidate to rally around? Or does it mean they’re weak and supporters should look elsewhere? And if you don’t particularly like Candidate A, does that mean you should rally around Candidate B to stop them, even if you really prefer Candidate C or D or E?

We need to look no further than Virginia political history for some examples.

* Perhaps the most famous nominating convention in Virginia history was the 1978 Republican gathering to pick a candidate for U.S. Senate. There were four candidate — long-time party leader Dick Obenshain, former Navy Secretary John Warner, former Gov. Linwood Holton and state Sen. Nathan Miller of Rockingham County. Obenshain led on the first ballot, and then proceeded to gain strength on subsequent ballots and eventually won – an example of first ballot strength translating into a later-ballot victory. (Tragically, of course, Obenshain was killed in a plane crash not long afterwards; he’s buried in Botetourt County, and the runner-up, Warner, was quickly named as his successor.)

* Less famous but even closer to home for us here in the Blue Ridge was the 1982 Republican convention to pick a 6th District candidate for Congress after Caldwell Butler of Roanoke announced his retirement. Ray Garland of Roanoke was the clear front-runner over a slate of lesser-known candidates, but conservatives felt Garland was too moderate. Conservatives eventually rallied around Kevin Miller of Harrisonburg, and he won a majority in later balloting — an example of a front-runner being denied the victory.

* Much the same thing happened in the 1985 Republican nomination for lieutenant governor — former attorney general and former gubernatorial candidates Marshall Coleman was the best-known of multiple candidates, but delegates considered him too moderate (and also blamed him for the party’s loss in 1981) and rallied around the lesser-known but more conservative John Chichester.

Now, those were both cases of a well-known front-runner vs. multiple lesser-known candidates. For an example of two closely-matched front-runners getting knocked out in favor of a compromise candidate, you need look no further than the 2009 Democratic nomination for governor. That was a primary, not a convention, but much the same dynamic was in play. Terry McAuliffe and Brian Moran were locked in tight combat, until voters decided enough of that, and moved en masse to dark horse Creigh Deeds at the last minute.

One big difference, though, is this: The primary required only a a plurality, the conventions a majority. But the papal vote requires a two-thirds majority, which means a determined minority could hold out and block the nomination of a majority front-runner.  History buffs will recall that the Democrats used to require a two-thirds majority to win their presidential nominations — one reason why it took the party 103 ballots in 1924 to settle on a nominee.

The rules for choosing for a pope specify that if no pope is selected after 33 ballots, then the 34th ballot is a run-off between the top two contenders. An incentive, perhaps, for front-runners to hold out?

* That brings to mind the 1992 Democratic convention to pick a 6th District candidate for Congress after Jim Olin of Roanoke announced his retirement. There were three candidates: Steve Musselwhite and John Fishwick entered with the most committed delegates; John Edwards was a distant third. The rules required that the last-place finisher drop out — meaning Musselwhite and Fishwick could effectively force Edwards out and get an instant run-off. Edwards cleverly lined up some other candidates — to try to prolong the vote. But the Musselwhite and Fishwick forces held firm, knowing that if they did, they’d get the two-vote vote they were both seeking. After five ballots, that’s how it played out — with Musselwhite defeating Fishwick by 11 votes in the final tally. (He went on to lose that fall to Republican Bob Goodlatte.)

Thus concludes your history lesson for the day. Which of these dynamics will play out in the Vatican? Or maybe some other dynamic will take hold?

We’ll know (maybe) when we see some white smoke.

Any famous conventions that our readers care to cite?

UPDATE: CNN reports white smoke, meaning a new pope has been named. So, as we learn more, it will be interesting to see which of these dynamics, if any, the voting followed.

Calvin Coolidge

Former 9th District congressman C. Bascom Slemp was Coolidge’s top aide.

History time here at the Blue Ridge Caucus:

Former President Calvin Coolidge is back in the news lately, thanks to a much-heralded biography (at least in conservative circles)  by historian Amity Shlaes.

Writers in various conservative publications have been waxing poetic over “Coolidge,” which attempts to revise history’s opinion of the Republican chief executive from a “do nothing” president into one who quietly did a lot of good (partly from preventing bad things from happening.)

Our local connection? Coolidge’s top aide for part of his presidency was former 9th District Congressman C. Bascom Slemp. Syndicated columnist George Will recently extolled the book and noted that Slemp was “splendidly named.”

Slemp, who hailed from Lee County and was educated at Virginia Military Institute and the University of Virginia Law School, represented Southwest Virginia in Congress from 1907 to 1922. (He was, like Coolidge, a Republican, at a time when GOP members from the South were hard to find, except in parts of Appalachia.)

Shortly after Coolidge became president in 1923 (following the death of Warren Harding), the new president named Slemp as his secretary,  a forerunner to today’s chief-of-staff position.

We haven’t read Shlaes’ book yet, but if you any of you have, feel free to weigh in with a review, or let us know how big a mention Slemp gets in it.

You can read more about Slemp on his Wikipedia entry and the Silent Cal website dedicated to Coolidge.

Also of note: The student center at the University of Virginia-Wise is named the C. Bascom Slemp Student Center. It was funded in part through the Slemp Foundation, a philanthrophic organization set up in his will. The foundation continues to endow certain scholarships in far Southwest Virginia.

And, finally, we would be remiss if we didn’t point out that Slemp was born in a place that was also, to quote George Will, “splendidly named”: Turkey Cove.

The New Yorker has a provocative story out in which it asks whether the American South is once again becoming politically isolated from the rest of the U.S.

It notes that on the recent “fiscal cliff” vote, most House Republicans outside the South voted in favor of the bill, while House Republicans from the South voted overwhelming against it. (The Los Angeles Times also looked at this regional split.)

The story goes on to observe that for a time, the South seemed to be becoming more integrated into American society — with a string of presidents (Carter, Bush 41, Clinton, Bush 43) who were either from the South or at least lived in the South (Bush 41).

But now, the New Yorker says:

Now the South is becoming isolated again. Every demographic and political trend that helped to reëlect Barack Obama runs counter to the region’s self-definition: the emergence of a younger, more diverse, more secular electorate, with a libertarian bias on social issues and immigration; the decline of the exurban life style, following the housing bust; the class politics, anathema to pro-business Southerners, that rose with the recession; the end of America’s protracted wars, with cuts in military spending bound to come. The Solid South speaks less and less for America and more and more for itself alone.

There’s even a brief reference to Roanoke in it.

You can find the story here.

Let us know what you think.

Sean Trende of Real Clear Politics takes a look at the latest population estimates from the Census Bureau, does some number-crunching and looks at which states might be gaining or losing congressional seats after the 2020 census.

There’s a good chance, he says, Virginia might pick up a 12th seat.

(You can find his analysis here.)

A 12th congressional seat would surely be on the other side of the state — that is, after all, where the population growth is. But it will still have implications here in Western Virginia, because that likely would mean the 5th, 6th and 9th Districts (especially the 9th) would haven’t have to expand as much geographically to stay balanced population-wise.

As we’ve written about many times before, keeping the 9th in balance is tricky — you can’t expand it into West Virginia, so there are limits on how it can grow.  It either has to eat into the 6th or the 5th. The problem is what to do about the Roanoke Valley. Taking  more of the Roanoke Valley into the 9th is an easy way to plump up the 9th’s population (Salem and western Roanoke County are already in the 9th), but the politics aren’t helpful for Republicans (assuming they still control the state legislature, and redistricting, come 2021.)

As long as Bob Goodlatte, who lives in Southwest Roanoke County, represents the 6th, Republicans wouldn’t want to take that part of Roanoke County into the 9th. And if the 9th absorbs the city of Roanoke, well, those are an awful lot of Democrats for Republicans to deal with. They get easily outvoted in the rest of the Republican-dominated 6th now — and maybe would get outvoted in a 9th District that’s been trending Republican — but why would the GOP want to take that chance?

Meanwhile, pushing the 9th further into Southside only eats away at part of Rep. Robert Hurt’s base in the 5th.

But if Virginia gains a 12th seat, maybe the mapmakers wouldn’t have to do anything too drastic. And, of course, an extra congressional seat would mean an additional electoral vote for a state that’s been a battleground the past two elections.

In any case, something to think about, eh?

Bill Bolling

The surprise decision by Lt. Gov. Bill Bolling to drop out of the governor’s race this week would seem to prove an old axiom: He who hesitates is lost.

More specifically: In the modern era of Virginia politics (which I date from the election of Linwood Holton as the first Republican governor in 1969), every lieutenant governor or attorney general who has sought re-election has ultimately failed to win the governorship.

They may have thought that by holding back, they’d get more favorable circumstances four years later. They didn’t.

Here’s the list:

* Andrew Miller. Elected attorney general in 1969, he chose to run for re-election in 1973, thereby avoiding a lot of political messiness that year (Henry Howell vs. Mills Godwin for governor, for us old-timers.) and presumably setting himself up for the Democratic nomination for governor in 1977.  Miller (who hailed from Washington County) was the prohibitive favorite against Howell that year, but lost in what was called at the time the “upset of the century.” Miller ran for the U.S. Senate a year later, and lost that, too, to John Warner.

* Mary Sue Terry. Elected attorney general in 1985, she avoided a bruising nomination fight against Lt. Gov. Doug Wilder by forgoing the governor’s race in 1989 and running for an easy re-election bid instead. But when it came time for the Patrick County Democrat to run for governor in 1993, the political mood had changed and she lost to Republican George Allen.

* Don Beyer. Elected lieutenant governor in 1989 with Doug Wilder, the Democratic car dealer from Northern Virginia won re-election in 1993 while Terry ran and lost to Allen in the governor’s race. That made Beyer the de facto Democratic nominee for governor  for 1997, but he lost to Republican Jim Gilmore in the famous “no car tax” election.

And now Bolling, who was elected on a split ticket with Democrat Tim Kaine in 2005 at the same time that Republican Bob McDonnell was winning the attorney general’s job. For the 2009 election, McDonnell and Bolling made a famous pact — McDonnell would run for governor that year, Bolling would seek re-election, and McDonnell would back him in 2013. The only problem: Ken Cuccinelli got elected attorney general in 2009, and he wasn’t a party to that pact. Now, Cuccinelli has elbowed Bolling out of the way for the nomination.

True, Bolling’s career may not be over yet, so maybe he will be governor someday, thereby disproving the axiom. And in many of these examples, well, somebody was going to lose somewhere. If Bolling had gone ahead and challenged McDonnell four years ago, one of those two would have lost — so while waiting seems fatal, sometimes going ahead and running can be, too.

Still, waiting for more favorable circumstances has yet to be a willing formula.

– Dwayne Yancey

Carol Lee McGuire-Bishop. The Roanoke Times | File 2009

I wanted to take a moment today to note the passing of Carol Lee McGuire-Bishop — my sixth and seventh grade social studies teacher and probably the biggest reason you’re reading my reporting in the Roanoke Times and on the Blue Ridge Caucus.

McGuire-Bishop — I still have a strong urge to call her Ms. McGuire — died early yesterday from injuries she suffered in a car wreck in Clifton Forge on Friday morning.

As some of you know, I’m a Clifton Forge native. I lived just outside the city limits on the east side, which meant that I attended Sharon Elementary School, which in the 1980s meant that I had Ms. McGuire as a teacher.

Her reputation was already well established at a school-wide level by the time I started kindergarten. She taught 6th and 7th grade social studies, but stories of her legendary temper trickled down to the lowest levels of the then-K-through-7 school. One story (probably a myth, but I wouldn’t rule it out as possibly true) had her slamming a door so hard that the window came out and flew across the hall, where it shattered on the opposite wall. When I first started school and paddling by the principal was still a real threat, that story was terrifying.

By the time I reached 6th grade, I was struggling with the onset of adolescence and dealing with one of the more challenging years of my life. But contrary to what I and my classmates had feared, Ms. McGuire wasn’t as bad as we’d heard.

True, she did work us hard. She all but required us to keep up with current events — preferably by reading a newspaper, whether it was the Roanoke Times or the local Virginian Review — and quizzed us regularly. She also lived up to her reputation for assigning lots and lots of reports: I think we did at least a dozen each on various aspects of the Civil War and World War II, ranging in length from a half a page to 3 or more pages.

But we found out she had a wicked sense of humor and could keep students laughing when she wanted. Her love of sports rivaled and probably surpassed that of even the most fervent fanboys in our classes. To some extent, we could predict her mood and homework load based on how the Washington Redskins, Virginia Tech Hokies and New York Yankees played.

And as stressful as the current events quizzes could be, they proved to be the gateway into the daily paper for me. I read the comics and sports pages for fun, but I read the news section for class. And it turned out the fall of 1988 through the spring of 1990 turned out to be a dramatic time for historic events — the fall of the Berlin Wall and the dissolution of the Soviet Union. That doesn’t even take into account the the 1988 presidential election.

Ms. McGuire would dictate current events for our notes. She didn’t cover every story in the paper, of course, so in some ways her delivery of each day’s events helped illustrate the idea of sorting stories by importance. As I got used to the paper, I got to where I could tell when something truly monumental had happened — and on those days I looked forward to hearing her take.

All of that helped prepare me for this job: I don’t know that there’s any better training to report and write for a newspaper than by spending years reading one.

In 2009, when Sen. Creigh Deeds, D-Bath County, won the Democratic primary for governor, I was assigned to travel up to my home Alleghany Highlands and get reaction from locals. I knew to hit some local hotspots — Cucci’s Pizzeria in Covington, the old Varsity Grill in Warm Springs — but on the drive up U.S. 220 I decided to call Ms. McGuire. She was retired then, so she was at home and was happy to agree to an interview.

She told me she was “elated” by his victory and added some local history:

“When Creigh first started out, he was so nervous and so self-conscious, but he always had the fire in his belly and the fire in the heart,” said Carol Lee McGuire-Bishop, who taught social studies in the Alleghany County school system for 31 years. “When you see him over TV or out with big crowds, you don’t understand how much he feels what he says. His grandparents were poor. He still lives in the same house his grandparents used to live in. His mother still carries the mail. I bet he’s the only candidate whose wife works. He is just true to his values. I don’t think his basic values have changed one bit.”

She introduced me to her new Scottie (her classrooms had been laced with images of the dog), but I didn’t realize until this weekend how she had regularly driven stray animals to other states to find “no-kill” shelters for them.

I did know, of course, about her love for Virginia Tech. I had an old Bimbo Coles poster from his time at VT, and Ms. McGuire is identifiable in the crowd in the background.

And earlier this year I was thrilled to see that she was the “feisty 70-year-old woman” who grilled Shane Beamer at a meeting of the Roanoke Valley Sports Club, which drew the notice of columnist Aaron McFarling.

Perhaps also noteworthy: The 2011 Ford Mustang she was driving at the time of her wreck on Friday was maroon with custom burnt orange pin stripes and VT logos.

In any case, I wanted to pay tribute to Ms. McGuire, who inspired me and a ton of other students in the Alleghany Highlands. I’ve been struck by how many people have written on Facebook and elsewhere, citing her as their favorite teacher. She certainly was a heck of an influence on me.

– Mason Adams

They say demography is destiny. In that case, here’s what the future of Virginia will look like, courtesy of the folks at the Weldon Cooper Center at the University of Virginia, who have issued the latest population projections for the state. This chart shows projected growth rates between now and 2020:

Here are some takeaways as they relate to politics:
* Notice that the coalfields are projected to continue losing population, along with other other scattered places in Southwest and Southside Virginia. We’ve devoted several posts lately to how the coalfields have flipped from being a Democratic stronghold (60%-plus for the D’s in some localities in 1988) to a Republican stronghold (70% plus for the R’s in some places this year). For the Republicans, that’s an increasing share of a shrinking pie.
* The biggest population gains are projected to come in the outer ring of localities around Northern Virginia (which, you’ll see, now pushes as far out as Frederick County, around Winchester), along with Chesterfield County south of Richmond and James City County just east of Hampton Roads.
* Of the seven localities forecast to grow the fastest (rates of 20 percent plus), two went for Obama (Loudoun and Prince William), the remaining five went for Romney. While that might seem initially encouraging news for Republicans, consider this: Who will those new residents be? Will they be Republicans? Or will they be the same types of voters who in recent years have caused Loudoun and Prince William to switch to the Democratic column? Case in point: Chesterfield County. It used to be the epitome of a GOP stronghold. In 2000, George W. Bush took 63 percent of the vote there. By this year, Mitt Romney polled only 53 percent of the vote in Chesterfield. Is it possible that as the population grows and changes, once-impregnable Chesterfield would drift into the Democratic column? Loudoun and Prince William sure have. (We should also note that this hasn’t been a permanent thing, either. Obama took those counties in 2008; Republican Bob McDonnell won them a year later in his race for governor. Obviously the electorate is different in a gubernatorial year, but the point is, those once Republican localities are now very much up for grabs).
* The largest locality west of the Blue Ridge is projected to be Montgomery County — with a population in 2020 of 105,293, with Roanoke city second at 99,287 and Roanoke County third at 98,413. We’ve asked before whether the disappearance of a Democratic base in the coalfields (at least in recent years) will make the 9th Congressional District permanently Republican? The question was meant to be thought-provoking, and at least one astute reader pointed out that population shifts will force the district to grow larger in redistricting. Republicans may try to figure out all sorts of alternatives but geography is a constraint — hard to redistrict into West Virginia, you know? So the realistic options long-term would appear to be these three, or some combination thereof:
– Expand into Southside Virginia. Downside for Republicans: That eats into the base of Rep. Robert Hurt, R-Chatham.
– Expand into the Shenandoah Valley. Downside for Republicans: That eats into the 6th District, now held by Rep. Bob Goodlatte, R-Roanoke, and a district that, with only one exception has been solidly Republican since 1952.
– Absorb Roanoke city. Downside for Republicans: This adds a whole lot of Democrats back into the 9th District, something the party would like to avoid if it possible can. Right now, they’re safely hidden, for electoral purposes, in the safely Republican 6th, but would the 9th be safely Republican if they were there instead?

Not questions we have to answer anytime soon, but check back after the census in 2020, 2030 and 2040 for answers.

The Weldon Cooper has more details here — along with a nifty interactive map that shows population projections for each locality for the next 28 years.