2008 results

I just went through and looked at the precinct-by-precinct results for the city of Roanoke in last week’s presidential election.

You might take note of the map I’ve linked with this entry: It’s the 2008, not the 2012, results from the race between Democrat Barack Obama and Republican John McCain.

It’s worth taking a look at it, not just for comparison but because it’s nearly the same map for the 2012 race between President Obama and Republican Mitt Romney. Every city precinct — with the lone exception of Williamson Road 1 — voted for the same party in the presidential race that it did in 2008. Williamson Road 1, which flipped, voted for McCain in 2008 and for Obama last week.

Most precinct vote totals didn’t change dramatically, although the margins in most expanded. A few got closer. Perhaps the most notable example of that was the Tinker, which Obama won by only 26 votes in 2008. Last week he again won Tinker — but by an even narrower margin of 15 votes this time.

The rest of the other swing precincts that Dwayne Yancey cited in last week’s “Breaking down the vote in Western Virginia” piece widened, even if only by a bit: John McCain won Raleigh Court No. 4 by 12 votes, versus 42 for Romney; Fishburn Park by 14 votes, versus 98 for Romney; and Williamson Road No. 1 by 23 votes — we actually saw a 78-vote swing there, as Obama won this year by 55 votes.

One other oddity worth noting about Roanoke’s vote totals: Virgil Goode won no more than 30 votes in any of the city precincts — except in Williamson Road 2 where he won 289 votes. If anybody’s got an explanation of why he won so many more votes there than elsewhere, by a factor of 10 in most cases, then please let us know in the comments.

Or post your own analysis: You can find the State Board of Elections Roanoke precinct totals from 2008 here and from 2012 here.

– Mason Adams

Former Rep. Rick Boucher, elected in 1982 and served until his defeat in 2010.

Rep. Morgan Griffith, who upset Boucher in 2010 at a time when many thought Boucher was unbeatable.

You’ll recall we’ve posted about how the coalfields have undergone a dramatic realignment, turning from a Democratic stronghold into what this year was a Republican one.

So here’s another thought coming out of that: Does that mean Rick Boucher will turn out to be the last Democratic congressman from Southwest Virginia?

It’s not that I’m preparing to install Republican Morgan Griffith as congressman-for-life, mind you, but just looking at the electoral realities. It used to be, Democrats could win the 9th District by rolling up big majorities in the coalfields, augmented by slimmer majorities in Radford and Montgomery County. Radford and Montgomery County are still quite possible for the Democrats (Radford went for Obama in 2008 and this year; Montgomery County went for Obama in 2008 and then was narrowly carried by Romney this year.)

But as the district expands geographically, it’s picking up more Republican areas (most recently in Salem and parts of Roanoke County). So where will Democrats get the votes — especially if the coalfields are no longer a supplier of big Democratic majorities, or, in fact, any Democratic majority? Put another way, what kind of Democrat would it take to win the 9th District as currently configured? And what kind of special circumstances? Are either of those realistically possible?

– Dwayne Yancey

We interrupt this 2012 election to pose a question for 2016 and beyond.

Tonight, Mitt Romney has won big in the coalfields. Maybe that’s not a surprise given President Obama’s alleged “war on coal” but let’s stop and consider the big picture.

It used to be, the coalfields were Democratic anchors even in the worst of times.

Even John Kerry carried some of the counties in the coalfields, even as he was losing in 2004.

Now, look at  how some of these counties have swung: over just the last three elections:

UPDATED, Wednesday, 1:10 p.m. with final results:

Dickenson County:
2004: Kerry 50.8%, Bush 48.4%
2008: McCain 49.2%, Obama 48.5%
2012: Romney 61.93%, Obama 35.82%

Buchanan County:
2004: Kerry 53.7%, Bush 45.8%
2008: McCain 51.9%, Obama 46.5%
2012: Romney 66.69%, Obama 32.08%

Lee County:
2004: Bush 57.9%, Kerry 40.1%
2008: McCain 63.1%, Obama 34.8%
2012: Romney 71.3%, Obama 26.9%

Norton
2004: Bush 51%, Kerry 48.2%
2008: Obama 49.2%, McCain 49.1%
2012:Romney 59.9%, Obama 38%

Russell County:
2004: Bush 53.2%, Kerry 45.2%
2008: McCain 55.6%, Obama 42.9%
2012: Romney 67.7%, Obama 30.7%

Tazewell County:
2004: Bush 57.4%, Kerry 41.1%
2008: McCain 65.6%, Obama 32.8%
2012: Romney 78%, Obama 20.63%

Wise County
2004: Bush 58.2%, Kerry 40.5%
2008: McCain 63.0%, Obama 35.3%
2012: Romney 73.7%, Obama 25.0%

So the question for the future: Is this just an aberration? Or will the coalfields ever vote Democratic again?

Dan Quayle

When I heard that Vice President Joe Biden was making an unannounced stop in Roanoke today – the day before the election — I was instantly reminded of . . . Dan Quayle.

But not for the reason some of you cynics out there might think.

On the day before the election in 1988, Quayle made a campaign stop in Roanoke, holding a rally at the airport.

The reason for his visit was somewhat of a mystery.

Virginia in 1988 was nowhere close to being a swing state. In any case, the Bush-Quayle ticket that year was well on its way to victory over Michael Dukakis.

Nor were there any state or local races that a Quayle visit might have helped promote. Democrat Chuck Robb faced only token opposition for the U.S. Senate (remember Maurice Dawkins) and Democrat Jim Olin of Roanoke was well-ensconced in the House of Representatives.

So why was Quayle coming to Roanoke, we wondered? And on the day before the election? Surely there were more important places he could have been, right?

I don’t think anyone ever officially said, but I remember the press travelling with Quayle that day informed us locals that they’d been told the reason: Roanoke was a safe place to “hide” Quayle, who had not necessarily made a name for himself as a great campaigner. (You might remember he was often tagged with the phrase “deer in the headlights.”)

Now it’s 24 years later, and Virginia very much a swing state — so much so that on the day before the election, Mitt Romney was in Lynchburg, and Biden made his announced stop in Roanoke to buy pizza.

I was at both of those events. I suspect I might be the only one.

– Dwayne Yancey

For those who want to see another photo of Biden’s motorcade downtown today, here ’tis: Read more »

Democrat Grover Cleveland

Republican James Blaine

As we’re barreling toward Election Day, just over two weeks away, I’ve been reading a book entitled “Theodore Roosevelt in the Badlands: A Young Politician’s Quest for Recovery in the American West.” It’s a quick-moving, engrossing read about the future president’s life running a cattle ranch in the Dakotas after his mother and first wife died within hours of one another.

I’m still only about halfway through, but I ran across a portion last night I wanted to share, as it’s potentially relevant to this election and fascinating either way. Roosevelt had been a well-regarded legislator in the New York state legislator before he moved west, and he spent the first few months of his time in the Badlands wrapping up some of the loose threads from his political life.

There’s some back-and-forth over an interview that Roosevelt conducted with a newspaper in which he endorsed James Blaine for president. That was a big deal because Blaine was widely disliked by another wing of the party that had previously been allied with Roosevelt. He later disclaimed the interview, but then eventually endorsed Blaine anyway.

The presidential campaign got personal and bitter toward the end. “Theodore Roosevelt in the Badlands” picks up the thread, noting that Blaine looked likely to win in the waning days of October.

Then, on Wednesday, October 29, just back from a successful campaign swing through the West, Blaine attended a meeting of a thousands ministers in the hall of the Fifth Avenue Hotel. At the podium, the Reverend Dr. Burchard, of the Murray Hill Presbyterian Church, referred to the Democrats scathingly as the party of “rum, Romanism and rebellion.” This seemingly simple statement was packed with potential damage for the Blaine campaign, because it attacked three major voting blocs — anti-prohibitionists, Catholics, and southerners. Blaine, sitting nearby but engrossed in thoughts of his own upcoming remarks, failed to absorb the alliterative accusation.

Whitelaw Reid of the New York Tribune said he thought the comment cost Blaine 10,000 votes in Manhattan and Brooklyn alone.

That same evening, Blaine attended a fundraiser at Delmonico’s, a high-falutin’ restaurant that served terrapin, canvas-back, venison, pheasants, mallard, quail and rooster’s combs, and each course was paired with the appropriate wine. That sounds like the sort of fancy restaurants that have become near second-homes for presidential candidates of today, but Blaine was promoting himself as a man of the people.

The New York World ran an editorial slamming the dinner: “Is there a workingman now who believes that James G. Blaine is sincere when he pretends to be the friend of labor? When Blaine and his millionaire admirers were feasting at Delmonico’s last night, thousands of children in this great city, whose fathers labor twelve hours a day, went to bed hungry and many of them supperless.”

The election was close, and according to “Theodore Roosevelt in the Badlands,” New York turned out be be the deciding factor. Cleveland narrowly won the state (“Theodore Roosevelt in the Badlands” has the margin at 1,149 votes out of a total 1,167,169 cast; Wikipedia has it at 1,047 out of 1,171,312) and carried the national election.

The lesson: Presidential candidates can never be too careful in the waning weeks of a tight race. Barack Obama and Mitt Romney would do well to try and avoid Blaine’s mistakes and eventual fate.

– Mason Adams

F. Scott Fitzgerald

“The test of a first-rate intelligence is the ability to hold two opposing ideas in mind at the same time and still retain the ability to function.”
— F. Scott Fitzgerald

It’s time for what seems to be our annual cautionary post about polls.

In the past few days, we’ve seen national polls that show both Romney ahead (Gallup, by 7) and Obama ahead (Hartford Courant, by 3). Clearly at least one of those has to be wrong, right? Or maybe not. Perhaps the polls have different screens to figure out who they think is likely to vote, different ways to weight certain demographics (How big will the youth vote be? How big will the African-American vote be? How big will the Hispanic vote be?) So F. Scott Fitzgerald was right: They both could be right in their own way, even though they say different things because they’re based on different assumptions.

My first piece of advice: Ignore the national polls, no matter what they show (well, up to a point. A landslide is still a landslide, but we’re not at landslide territory yet for either guy). Some point out that Romney’s numbers in the national polls could be inflated because of his big advantages in the Southern states (see this Slate piece.) But the real reason to ignore the national polls is we don’t elect presidents in a nationwide popular vote. We elect them state-by-state through the Electoral College. So that’s where to look.

The best collection of state-by-state poll results is at Real Clear Politics. There are lots of ways to read them, of course. (My guy’s ahead! Yes! This poll is right on the money!  Or: The other guy’s ahead. This poll is clearly wrong and biased!)

Here are some things I look for. Let’s take two recent polls out of Ohio — one by Rasmussen, one by Survey USA. Both show Obama ahead, by 1% in Rasmussen, by 3% in Survey USA. Good news for Obama, right? Well, being ahead is certainly better than being behind, of course. But let’s look at how those two polls produced those leads: Read more »

The critically-acclaimed Ben Affleck movie “Argo” opens in theatres today. It’s based on the true story of how six Americans were spirited out of Iran during the Iranian hostage crisis in 1980 by posing as Canadian filmmakers. Their escape, dubbed “The Canadian Caper,” was well-covered then but the full story about how the CIA created an elaborate and fake Hollywood back story for them has only recently been declassified.

This seems an appropriate time to remind people that Roanoke has a tragic connection to that episode of history. The six Americans (who had escaped the embassy compound when it was being seized by militants and hid out at the Canadian ambassador’s house) were smuggled out in January 1980. A few months later came the ill-fated hostage rescue attempt, which ended with the deaths of eight Americans in a helicopter accident at the staging ground code-named “Desert One.”

One of those Americans who lost their life was from Roanoke — Marine Sgt. John Davis Harvey.

Here’s the trailer for “Argo.”

The board of directors of Downtown Roanoke Inc., a nonprofit organization focused on economic development downtown, has appointed Steve Musselwhite to be the organization’s interim president.

The political connection?

Musselwhite was the Democratic candidate for Congress in the 6th District in 1992 when incumbent Jim Olin retired; Musselwhite lost to Republican Bob Goodlatte that fall.

For more on Musselwhite’s new gig, see this story by Duncan Adams.

President Barack Obama will campaign in Roanoke tonight, marking the first time a sitting president has held an event here since 1977. We’ll flashback throughout the day to other occasions that presidents have visited Roanoke. We’ll kick it off, however, with a flashback to the last time Obama held an event in Roanoke as a candidate.

You can discuss the president’s pending visit on an open thread here.

George W. Bush | Wikimedia Commons

Thursday, June 7, 2001

VIRGINIANS GIVE PRESIDENT A WARM WELCOME
‘EVERYBODY’S BEEN CALLING EVERYBODY ALL THE WAY DOWN THE ROAD’

Summary: About 100 people were at the Roanoke Regional Airport hoping to see President Bush get off Air Force One.

By RACHEL CLARKE THE ROANOKE TIMES

MONTVALE — Sightseers roamed around the airport and lingered along the edge of U.S. 460 for hours Wednesday, hoping to catch just a glimpse of President George W. Bush.
Diane Branham, the owner of Mama’s Home Cooking in Montvale, said almost every customer and employee in her restaurant ran outside when the president’s motorcade came by. “We had a big crowd out there waving, the kids and everybody,” she said. Branham put red, white and blue flowers and several American flags in front of Mama’s the day before, after she heard President Bush might come by.
Branham made plans with her neighbors to ensure that she wouldn’t miss the motorcade. A friend up the road called Branham when the president passed by her house, and then Branham called someone farther down the road to give her notice. “Everybody’s been calling everybody all the way down the road,” she said.
Some local residents opted instead to peek at President Bush at the Roanoke Regional Airport, where he landed in Air Force One.
Will Meeks, a teacher at the Minnick Education Center, brought his seventh- and eighth-grade students out to see the president because they were in the area anyway to tour the center’s new building.
“We thought we’d come here and then go by and see the new school,” Meeks said. “We learned about D-Day in class, and Richard Burrow came to speak to us.” Burrow is executive director of the National D-Day Memorial Foundation.
Meeks said he thought the trip was worthwhile because a president might not come back to this area for years. “It’s a pretty exciting thing for Roanoke,” he said.
Several of the 100 or so people who were waiting at the airport said it was their second choice for a spot to see President Bush in person.
“We were going to the D-Day Memorial, but we were running too late and they closed it down, so we decided to come here instead,” said Larry Lamanca, who came with his brother and two friends. Lamanca, who owns American Door & Glass, gave himself and his employees the day off because the dedication of the memorial was an important event for the Roanoke area. “It’s really a great thing they’ve done in Bedford,” he said.
Ron Wood, who was waiting at the airport with his 8-year-old daughter Mandy, thought the memorial was so important that he took Mandy out of school for the day. After they were turned away at the dedication ceremony, they came to the airport so she could at least get a glimpse of the president, he said.
Wood said he has seen Presidents Ford, Reagan and Clinton in person, and he would like Mandy to see a few as well. “You’ve got a long life ahead of you and a lot of presidents – but we’ll start now,” he told her. Wood still plans to take his daughter to see the memorial within the next couple weeks.
Lita Long, who home-schools her four children, brought her family as one of their lessons for the day. She said they saw President Bush come out of Air Force One and wave to the crowd. Although they only saw the president for a few seconds, Long thought the wait was worth it. “He’s the president,” she said. “Everything is a learning event – it was historical.”

Illustration: Photo – 1 KELLY HAHN JOHNSON THE ROANOKE TIMES Diane Branham, “Mama” of Mama’s Home Cooking (left) and some of her employees and customers wave at the president at he travels through Montvale toward Roanoke. Next to Branham (from the left) are Mary Meadows, Kody Kanode, Donnie Orange and Rhonda Vermeulin. COLOR Photo – 2 KELLY HAHN JOHNSON THE ROANOKE TIMES Spectators wave at the presidential motorcade as it travels west along U.S. 460 in Montvale following the president’s speech at the dedication of the National D-Day Memorial. COLOR 3. Hoping to see Air Force One, residents gather on an airport access road and search the skies at the Roanoke Regional Airport. In the front center (with glasses) is David Helmer. Ray Austin is at front right. KELLY HAHN JOHNSON THE ROANOKE TIMES

More stories about Bush’s visit and the dedication after the jump. There’s a package still online, too:

Read more »

President Barack Obama will campaign in Roanoke tonight, marking the first time a sitting president has held an event here since 1977. We’ll flashback throughout the day to other occasions that presidents have visited Roanoke. We’ll kick it off, however, with a flashback to the last time Obama held an event in Roanoke as a candidate.

You can discuss the president’s pending visit on an open thread here.

Jimmy Carter | Wikimedia Commons

September 24, 1977: From then-President Jimmy Carter’s daily diary. (Sorry for some of the formatting on this one. It’s worth checking the link for a better version, but you can get the essence of the trip from this.)

The President flew by Air Force One Jetstar from Andrews
Air Force Base to Roanoke Municipal Airport, Roanoke,
Virginia. For a list of passengers, see APPENDIX “B.”

The President was greeted by:
Henry E. Howell, Jr., Democratic candidate for
Governor of Virginia
Mrs. Henry E. (Betty) Howell, Jr.
Noel C. Taylor, Mayor of Roanoke, Virginia
Richard “Dick” Pattisall, Chairman of the Roanoke
County (Virginia) Democratic Committee
Sydnor C. Brizendine, Chairman of the Roanoke
City (Virginia) Democratic Committee
Gerald Moody, Field Representative for the International
Electrical, Radio and Machine Workers,
Roanoke, Virginia

The President went to the holding room. He was accompanied
by la
Mr. and Mrs. Howell
William J. Rosendahl, Campaign Manager to Mr. Howell
The President met with:
Mr. and Mrs. Howell
Mr. Rosendahl
The President went to his motorcade.

The President motored from the Roanoke Municipal Airport
to the Roanoke Civic Center. He was accompanied by
Mr. and Mrs. Howell.

The President attended a campaign rally in honor of Mr.
Howell,
Members of the press

The President was greeted by a delegation of local officials
and Democratic party leaders. For a list of attendees,
see APPENDIX “C.”

The President viewed a portrait of himself by artist
Lenore Holsveig.

The President went to the platform in the Civic Center.
For a list of platform guests, see APPENDIX “D.”

The President was introduced by Mr. Howell.

The President addressed the crowd attending the campaign
rally.

The President returned to his motorcade. He was accompanied
by Mr. and Mrs. Howell,

The Presidential party motored from the Roanoke Civic Center
to Roanoke Municipal Airport.

The President went to the holding room in the Piedmont
Aviation Building.

The President was greeted by George A. Litchard, Manager
for the Roanoke Division of Piedmont Aviation.

The President boarded Air F o r c e One Jetstar.

The President flew by Air Force One Jetstar from Roanoke
Municipal Airport to Norfolk International Airport,
Norfolk, Virginia. For a list of passengers, see
APPENDIX “E.”