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Spending all of my money and time, done too much wild, wild life.
What will you spend your money and time on in 2013?
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Interesting read (it’s a year and a half old, so if I am retreading old waters, I apologize).
The Black Swan of Cairo
How Suppressing Volatility Makes the World Less Predictable and More Dangerous
The authors mention foreign policy and economic policy in the context of the Black Swan phenomena, but it is interesting to view other issues through this same lens. Thoughts?
The critical issue in both cases [the global financial crisis and turmoil in the Middle East] is the artificial suppression of volatility—the ups and downs of life—in the name of stability. It is both misguided and dangerous to push unobserved risks further into the statistical tails of the probability distribution of outcomes and
allow these high-impact, low-probability “tail risks” to disappear from policymakers’ fields of observation. What the world is witnessing in Tunisia, Egypt, and Libya is simply what happens when highly constrained systems explode.
Near(?) Year’s Eve open thread??!
Also, for those that want to have their anger meter go off the edge, here’s a horrible story. I’m an atheist but this is just wrong!
Also, I find it ironic there are those in our community, presumably Christian, who deface atheist billboards. It seems the people that did that, are acting more like, ….. well, you know.
Saudis crackdown on Christmas ‘plotters’, gatecrash party
Saudi religious police stormed a house in the Saudi Arabian province of al-Jouf, detaining more than 41 guests for “plotting to celebrate Christmas,” a statement from the police branch released Wednesday night said.
The raid is the latest in a string of religious crackdowns against residents perceived to threaten the country’s strict religious code.
The host of the alleged Christmas gathering is reported to be an Asian diplomat whose guests included 41 Christians, as well as two Saudi Arabian and Egyptian Muslims. The host and the two Muslims were said to be “severely intoxicated.”
The guests were said to have been referred to the “respective authorities.” It is unclear whether or not they have been released since.
I was not at my most alert at 6:11 a.m. Tomorrow’s not looking good, either.
3 – okay.
Excellent read 89Hoo! I loved this:
“WHAT IS NEEDED IS A SYSTEM THAT CAN
PREVENT THE HARM DONE TO CITIZENS BY THE
DISHONESTY OF BUSINESS ELITES; THE LIMITED
COMPETENCE OF FORECASTERS, ECONOMISTS, AND
STATISTICIANS; AND THE IMPERFECTIONS OF
REGULATION, NOT ONE THAT AIMS TO ELIMINATE
THESE FLAWS. HUMANS MUST TRY TO RESIST THE
ILLUSION OF CONTROL: JUST AS FOREIGN POLICY
SHOULD BE INTELLIGENCE-PROOF (IT SHOULD
MINIMIZE ITS RELIANCE ON THE COMPETENCE
OF INFORMATION-GATHERING ORGANIZATIONS
AND THE PREDICTIONS OF “EXPERTS” IN WHAT
ARE INHERENTLY UNPREDICTABLE DOMAINS),
THE ECONOMY SHOULD BE REGULATOR-PROOF,
GIVEN THAT SOME REGULATIONS SIMPLY MAKE
THE SYSTEM ITSELF MORE FRAGILE. DUE TO THE
COMPLEXITY OF MARKETS, INTRICATE REGULATIONS
SIMPLY SERVE TO GENERATE FEES FOR LAWYERS
AND PROFITS FOR SOPHISTICATED DERIVATIVES
TRADERS WHO CAN BUILD COMPLICATED FINANCIAL
PRODUCTS THAT SKIRT THOSE REGULATIONS.
It was as if they were my soul brothers. When they talked of “tipping points” and the “life of a turkey”. I was hooked.
Thanks for the link.
Sandi, I agree with you. Do you think we can apply any of it to central banking?
Found this at the Friendly Atheist blog. It’s always nice when Roanoke makes the big time.
Christian Pastor: I Believe Mocking Jesus Should Be Outlawed!
There’s apparently a TV show called “Preaching the Word With Evangelist Jeff Worley” that airs in Roanoke, VA in the early morning hours on Saturday… and on today’s episode, Worley talked about a certain American Atheists billboard he saw in Times Square…:
Worley is wrong on many levels.
89Hoo, I think we can “apply” their points to a lot of things, as they do. Such change takes time, maybe even more time than we have. Doing things wrong just because that is the way we have always done them is very hard to undo even when we can admit they are wrong. All this outrage over Obama and what he (alone) has supposedly “done wrong” will simply die the moment the other party is back in the White House. Even though the “wrong” will still be there. SOSO, this is never about the kind of change that is needed. It is about the kind of change we can get. Not much.
Sandi, I agree, without the requisite partisan adulation, of course. But in order to effect any change, even long term change, we have to start with an acknowledgment that there is a problem that is not merely due to the Oval Office occupant. I know you agree now but I suspect you sang a different tune with Obama’s predecessor.
But let us not digress. Instead of attacking catalysts, we should attack causes; instead of getting rid of symptoms, we should be eliminating the illness. Then the POTUS doesn’t matter.
In what world, on what planet, is 535 to 1 not good odds?
Since your accusation admits you know the drill, why was it “partisan adulation” when I said it?
11 – huh?
12 – because it is, and it makes it impossible to have a constructive conversation.
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Wed, 18 Dec 2013 14:06:31 +0000