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1. 89Hoo | December 31, 2012 at 9:33 am

   Interesting read (it’s a year and a half old, so if I am retreading old waters, I apologize).

   The Black Swan of Cairo
   How Suppressing Volatility Makes the World Less Predictable and More Dangerous

   http://fooledbyrandomness.com/ForeignAffairs.pdf

   The authors mention foreign policy and economic policy in the context of the Black Swan phenomena, but it is interesting to view other issues through this same lens. Thoughts?

   The critical issue in both cases [the global financial crisis and turmoil in the Middle East] is the artificial suppression of volatility—the ups and downs of life—in the name of stability. It is both misguided and dangerous to push unobserved risks further into the statistical tails of the probability distribution of outcomes and
   allow these high-impact, low-probability “tail risks” to disappear from policymakers’ fields of observation. What the world is witnessing in Tunisia, Egypt, and Libya is simply what happens when highly constrained systems explode.
2. Scott M. | December 31, 2012 at 10:53 am

   Near(?) Year’s Eve open thread??!

   Also, for those that want to have their anger meter go off the edge, here’s a horrible story. I’m an atheist but this is just wrong!

   Also, I find it ironic there are those in our community, presumably Christian, who deface atheist billboards. It seems the people that did that, are acting more like, ….. well, you know.

   http://www.albawaba.com/editorchoice/saudi-christmas-459860

   Saudis crackdown on Christmas ‘plotters’, gatecrash party

   Saudi religious police stormed a house in the Saudi Arabian province of al-Jouf, detaining more than 41 guests for “plotting to celebrate Christmas,” a statement from the police branch released Wednesday night said.

   The raid is the latest in a string of religious crackdowns against residents perceived to threaten the country’s strict religious code.

   The host of the alleged Christmas gathering is reported to be an Asian diplomat whose guests included 41 Christians, as well as two Saudi Arabian and Egyptian Muslims. The host and the two Muslims were said to be “severely intoxicated.”

   The guests were said to have been referred to the “respective authorities.” It is unclear whether or not they have been released since.

   More…..
3. Christina Nuckols | December 31, 2012 at 11:50 am

   I was not at my most alert at 6:11 a.m. Tomorrow’s not looking good, either.
4. 89Hoo | December 31, 2012 at 11:52 am

   3 – okay.
5. Sandi Saunders | December 31, 2012 at 1:39 pm

   Excellent read 89Hoo! I loved this:
   “WHAT IS NEEDED IS A SYSTEM THAT CAN
   PREVENT THE HARM DONE TO CITIZENS BY THE
   DISHONESTY OF BUSINESS ELITES; THE LIMITED
   COMPETENCE OF FORECASTERS, ECONOMISTS, AND
   STATISTICIANS; AND THE IMPERFECTIONS OF
   REGULATION, NOT ONE THAT AIMS TO ELIMINATE
   THESE FLAWS. HUMANS MUST TRY TO RESIST THE
   ILLUSION OF CONTROL: JUST AS FOREIGN POLICY
   SHOULD BE INTELLIGENCE-PROOF (IT SHOULD
   MINIMIZE ITS RELIANCE ON THE COMPETENCE
   OF INFORMATION-GATHERING ORGANIZATIONS
   AND THE PREDICTIONS OF “EXPERTS” IN WHAT
   ARE INHERENTLY UNPREDICTABLE DOMAINS),
   THE ECONOMY SHOULD BE REGULATOR-PROOF,
   GIVEN THAT SOME REGULATIONS SIMPLY MAKE
   THE SYSTEM ITSELF MORE FRAGILE. DUE TO THE
   COMPLEXITY OF MARKETS, INTRICATE REGULATIONS
   SIMPLY SERVE TO GENERATE FEES FOR LAWYERS
   AND PROFITS FOR SOPHISTICATED DERIVATIVES
   TRADERS WHO CAN BUILD COMPLICATED FINANCIAL
   PRODUCTS THAT SKIRT THOSE REGULATIONS.

   It was as if they were my soul brothers. When they talked of “tipping points” and the “life of a turkey”. I was hooked.

   Thanks for the link.
6. 89Hoo | December 31, 2012 at 1:48 pm

   Sandi, I agree with you. Do you think we can apply any of it to central banking?
7. Scott M. | December 31, 2012 at 4:01 pm

   Found this at the Friendly Atheist blog. It’s always nice when Roanoke makes the big time.

   Christian Pastor: I Believe Mocking Jesus Should Be Outlawed!

   http://www.patheos.com/blogs/friendlyatheist/2012/12/29/christian-pastor-i-believe-mocking-jesus-should-be-outlawed/

   There’s apparently a TV show called “Preaching the Word With Evangelist Jeff Worley” that airs in Roanoke, VA in the early morning hours on Saturday… and on today’s episode, Worley talked about a certain American Atheists billboard he saw in Times Square…:

   more…
8. 89Hoo | December 31, 2012 at 5:19 pm

   Worley is wrong on many levels.
9. Sandi Saunders | December 31, 2012 at 5:36 pm

   89Hoo, I think we can “apply” their points to a lot of things, as they do. Such change takes time, maybe even more time than we have. Doing things wrong just because that is the way we have always done them is very hard to undo even when we can admit they are wrong. All this outrage over Obama and what he (alone) has supposedly “done wrong” will simply die the moment the other party is back in the White House. Even though the “wrong” will still be there. SOSO, this is never about the kind of change that is needed. It is about the kind of change we can get. Not much.
10. 89Hoo | December 31, 2012 at 6:35 pm

    Sandi, I agree, without the requisite partisan adulation, of course. But in order to effect any change, even long term change, we have to start with an acknowledgment that there is a problem that is not merely due to the Oval Office occupant. I know you agree now but I suspect you sang a different tune with Obama’s predecessor.

    But let us not digress. Instead of attacking catalysts, we should attack causes; instead of getting rid of symptoms, we should be eliminating the illness. Then the POTUS doesn’t matter.
11. Sandi Saunders | December 31, 2012 at 9:59 pm

    In what world, on what planet, is 535 to 1 not good odds?
12. Sandi Saunders | December 31, 2012 at 10:06 pm

    Since your accusation admits you know the drill, why was it “partisan adulation” when I said it?
13. 89Hoo | January 1, 2013 at 9:04 am

    11 – huh?

    12 – because it is, and it makes it impossible to have a constructive conversation.