2009.10.25
Analyzing the ACC poll
Greetings from ACC media day in Greensboro, where the Hokies were ranked 8th in the ACC preseason media poll. Duke and UNC tied for first. Malcolm Delaney made the preseason All-ACC team as the fourth-leading vote-getter.
The fact that the Hokies were only voted 8th is no big shock. They have two standouts in Malcolm and Jeff Allen, but the jury is still out on the supporting cast.
I voted the Hokies 7th because of their great 1-2 scoring punch, but did not vote them any higher than that because we need to see if they can replace AD's scoring punch and become a better defensive team. But that 1-2 punch could carry them pretty far in a league where many stars from last year have left. You wouldn't think VT would be better minus AD, but they could be, just because other teams have lost valuable parts as well.
If you want to suppose that the ACC gets 7 teams in the NCAAs, like last year, the Hokies being picked 8th means they are thought to be close to being an NCAA tournament team but look more like they will wind up in the NIT again. Fair assessment at this point. They could indeed wind up in the NCAAs, but you just don't know yet how much improvement guys like Dorenzo and JT will show this year.
Duke got 25 first-place votes, five more than UNC, but both had 545 points to top the poll-- first time there has been a tie atop the poll. I voted UNC No. 1 and Duke No. 2, but both have question marks. UNC lost some great players to the NBA but still has lots of talent, including Ed Davis. You have to wonder how good their backcourt is, though.
Duke has a great 1-2 punch in Kyle Singler and Jon Scheyer, but the loss of Gerald Henderson and Elliot Williams leaves you wondering about just how good the rest of the team is. I think that's why Duke and UNC tied for the top, rather than one of them being an obvious No. 1. But I did expect UNC to be the clear-cut No. 1, and that was not the case. I guess the ACC media is not as sold on the overall talent on the roster as the national magazines are.
Clemson was 3rd with 409 points, with Ga. Tech fourth at 387. Maryland was fifth, followed by Wake, FSU, Va. Tech, BC, Miami, UVa and NC State.
As far as I am concerned, after Duke and UNC (or UNC and Duke), you can put teams 3-9 in a hat, basically. Any order would not be a bad poll, and any order would not be a surprise if that is how it pans out in March. It was very hard for me to vote 3-9. (I had GT 3rd, Maryland 4th, Clemson 5th, FSU 6th, Hokies 7, Wake 8 and BC 9. But I kept changing that order).
Clemson being voted 3rd in the poll has a lot to do with the return of Trevor Booker, one of the ACC's best big men. And Demontez Stitt is back at PG. But Tigers lost KC Rivers, Terrence Oglesby and Raymond Sykes. Will Clemson have the outside shooting to balance Booker inside?
Ga Tech being picked 4th after a lousy year last season has a lot to with freshman big man Derrick Favors joining Gani Lawai to give GT two great post players. GT also has PG Shumpert back, and the return of D'Andre Bell from injury that kept him from playing last winter. GT could be very good if Favors lives up to his billing and the backcourt can provide some scoring balance for the two post players. (Backourt is a question with many teams this year).
Maryland being picked 5th makes sense because Terps have most everyone back from an NCAA tournament team, including Greivis Vasquez, one of the league's better guards. Maryland is one of those teams where Vasquez's supporting cast does not impress, but they were good enough to make the NCAAs last year and have 4 starters back, so you have to put them pretty high in the poll.
Wake being picked only sixth is because James Johnson and Jeff Teague are gone. But they were still picked in the top half of the poll because Aminu, Ish Smith, LD Williams and Chas McFarland are back. Wake needs some scorers to emerge to help out Aminu.
FSU was picked 7th because even though Toney Douglas is gone (and Echefu), a number of promising players are back -- Alabi, Singleton, Kitchen. Douglas' scoring punch is going to be missed, so we will see if last year's supporting cast can turn into stars. That is the reason why FSU was not picked higher than 7th in the poll.
I've already discussed VT. BC was picked 9th because, like FSU, the Eagles lost a big scorer from an NCAA tourney team - Tyrese Rice. You could make an argument for them to be higher than 9th cause they return solid players like Trapani, Sanders, Jackson and Raji. But Rice was such a great player that you want to see if they can replace his scoring punch.
Miami was only picked 10th because UM also lost a great player, Jack McClinton. You need to see if other players will step up, and if Collins can be a real force inside.
UVa was only picked 11th cause, although Landesberg is back, you still wonder about the supporting cast. And you want to see how the Cavs adjust to their new coach.
State was an obvious choice for last place. Costner, Fells and McCauley are all gone from a team that wasn't very good last year.
The Preseason All ACC team is Malcolm plus Vasquez from Maryland, Booker from Clemson, Singler from Duke, and Davis from UNC. That is exactly who I voted for. You could also make an argument for Gani Lawal of GT, Scheyer of Duke and Aminu of Wake, but the five that got the most votes were my picks as well.
I was surprised, though, that Delaney got only 24 votes. I thought the leading returning scorer in the ACC, and one of the best returning guards in the ACC, would have gotten more votes than that. He did make All-ACC third team last spring, after all. But at least he did make the preseason team, as expected.
Singler was the preseason player of the year with 19 votes, with Vasquez 2nd with 15 votes. I voted for Booker, who was 3rd with 8 votes. But you really could have made an argument for any of the five guys on the preseason team being player of the year.
Derrick Favors was the preseason rookie of the year. The Ga Tech big man got 40 votes, including mine. The only other guy to consider was Henson of UNC, who was 2nd with 8 votes.





