2009.11.04
It appears the big GOP 'sweep' number is 45
Do we have a winner in the contest to predict the GOP's combined margin of victory in Tuesday's elections?
Maybe, though we may be heading into tie-breaker territory once all the numbers are in.
Right now it appears that the combined margin of victory for the Republican statewide candidates is 45 percentage points.
Here's the breakdown:
- McDonnell 59, Deeds 41 -- 18 pts
- Bowling 56, Wagner 44 -- 12 pts
- Cucinelli 57, Shannon 42 -- 15 pts
- Total.......................................... 45 pts
That would put contest entrant Lynda K, who cringed as she guessed a combined 42-point margin, as the person with the closest estimate.
She barely edged Mark Johnson, who guessed a combined 49-point margin.
But those numbers, from the State Board of Elections, are with 98 percent of the vote tabulated, and could still fluctuate a bit. A 1-point gain by any one of the GOP candidates would throw the contest into coin-flip territory, and 2 points would mean Johnson is the victor. So we'll wait for the final tabulated results.
Congrats to both Lynda and Mark -- smart guessing!
The ultimate victor gets bragging rights as the political guru of this blog, PLUS a hilarious and nifty tome called "Obama's Blackberry."
You can see a small bit of what's in that book here.
And congrats to the Republican victors as well. They cleaned the Democrats' clocks.
I looked back at my guess... and it was actually 43 - which puts me a "bit" closer! Can't wait for final results! The book sounds fun!
Comment by Lynda K — November 4, 2009 @ 6:13 pm
Lynda is correct; I goofed. Math and journalists mix about as well as Palin and McCain, you know.
Unless the total margin swings at least a point upward, she is the winner!
Comment by Dan Casey — November 4, 2009 @ 6:24 pm