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Datablog

Palin in Salem: What was the real headcount?

You all are still chewing on those Barack Obama attendance estimates from the Democratic presidential candidate's visit to Roanoke last week. And some of you are chewing on each other, too.

palinSo, here's a similar round-up of attendance estimates for Republican Vice Presidential candidate Sarah Palin's stop in Salem Monday.

I'm not surprised to find more wide-ranging numbers here. Outdoor events, with thousands of people standing on a ball field, are notoriously hard to estimate. It's not like you can't count the number of chairs in a row and multiply by the number of rows. Of all the numbers and news sources, only one estimate is attributed to a specific source in the publication.

So, here's what I found out there on Google News and on local news sites:

The Roanoke Times reported an "estimated crowd of 16,000." Mason Adams told me this morning the source was Carey Harveycutter, director of Salem's civic facilities.

The Associated Press reports a "crowd of 12,000," a number repeated in a different version of the AP story in USA Today.

WSET television out of Lynchburg gave a count of 16,000, but attributed it to "Republican officials."

Roanoke's WSLS NewsChannel 10 said Palin spoke to "a roaring crowd of more than 14,000."

WDBJ7 reported two numbers, at one point saying "about 12,000," and at another time saying "some put the estimates at 16,000."

And the highest estimate came from a Roanoke Valley community news site, called ourvalley.org, which put the number at "more than 20,000."

Salem stadium has been only rarely used for events like the Palin rally in the past, I suspect because until last year it had a natural grass field which wouldn't hold up well under all that foot traffic.

Salem officials sent out a list of the biggest crowds in the venue. Three were football games, with the biggest crowd reaching 10,000-pus in 1989. But the biggest event by far was the Franklin Graham Festival, an evangelistic gathering over several days.

Salem officials said 53,000 attended over three days, with more than 15,000 on one day. But The Roanoke Times put the number on day much higher than that: "an estimated 21,000."
The audience "filled the bleachers and field seats, overflowing onto the grassy berm at one end of the football field," Cody Lowe wrote. "Still, it was Saturday's attendance - estimated at more than 15,000 despite driving rain and thunder - that continued to impress the folks who staged the event."

Virginia's best football players aren't from Roanoke. Why?

New in the DataSphere, a small database of the top high school football recruits of the class of 2009 as selected by Roanoke Times sports writer Doug Doughty. In addition to the players' names and high schools, you get their height, weight and position. Plus, your results are mapped.

And it was the map that got my attention:

recruits_map

Each blue marker represents a school attended by one of the top recruits. It's not all that surprising that most of the blue is in the populous eastern part of the state, especially Tidewater, the Richmond area and Northern Virginia.

But look at the Roanoke Valley.

But for that one marker in Vinton for Tyler Snow of William Byrd High School, there would be a gaping hole around Roanoke a hundred miles across.

What's the story here? It's not that no players of note have come from the area ever. There's the Barber twins out of Cave Spring, of course. Lee Suggs out of William Fleming. More recently, Nick Schmidt punted for Virginia Tech and opted out of what seemed to be automatic work as a punter in the NFL. There are others, too, I'm sure, though they aren't coming to mind as I write this.

But the pattern seems obvious. Last year's map looked about like this one. There are prospects coming out of the less populous western half of the state, and yet they consistently don't come from the biggest population center in the region -- the Roanoke Valley.

I could suppose that part of the problem may be a lack of development at an early age. Roanoke City Schools dumped middle-school football years ago. That can't help, at least as far as Roanoke schools go.

But only addresses part of the question.

So how about some input here. I'm not sportswriter, or sports analyst, so maybe my premise is wrong. If it is, straighten me out. But if I'm on the mark, what's your theory about what's going on?

Obama in Roanoke: What was the real headcount?

Part of a comment by Roanoke R n R on this morning’s post about why Obama came to the Roanoke Civic Center intrigued me:

“What I do find really interesting is that if the numbers are correct...only 6,500 people showed up at a venue that can hold over 3,000 more, was free, and people didn't even need to get a ticket to attend.”

That got me wondering about the number myself. I decided to poke around Google news to see what numbers people were reporting. I’m the first to admit we reporters can get wild of reality in these estimates sometimes (Roanoke R n R is right to be skeptical), but not so much this time.

The Washington Independent, Reuters, and CBS News all put the attendance at 8,000.

WSET in Lynchburg reported mid-rally that “the Coliseum holds about 10,000 people and it is filled to capacity right now.” (The Roanoke Civic Center website reports the capacity this way: "10,600 In The Round (general admission); 10,500 Proscenium Stage; 8,672 Hockey; 5,626 Basketball.")

A news source called AFP put it at 8,250.

Naturally, I wanted to know what number we’d be reporting, too. So, when my colleague Mason Adams, who has the unfortunate fate of seeing me five feet from him everytime he looks up from his computer, came in from covering the rally, I asked him the number.

His immediate response: 8,250.

His source: The Roanoke City Fire Marshall, based apparently on counts from clickers at the doors.

And, just for the sake of trivia -- and what is any of this but trivia? -- if this were a ticketed event, it would rank among last year's best-selling Roanoke Civic Center events at No. 4, behind the Winter Jam contemporary Christian music show, and just a head of Disney's High School Musical on Ice.

I'm not kidding.

Why is Obama in Roanoke, 48 years after the last visit by a major party nominee?

Why is Barack Obama here, when a bonifide presidential nominee hasn't been here in 48 years?

For the first time since 1964, Virginia matters. Which is to say, neither party is taking it for granted that Virginia will be as reliably red this year as it has been in the last 10 presidential elections. Check out Virginia's presidential voting record -- county-by-county -- back to 1980 on our interactive map. (Click on "Explore.")

Virginia is in play this year, as polls show. Voter registrations are also up dramatically, especially in areas that tend to vote Democratic, further suggesting the possibility that Obama could actually turn Virginia blue. Roanoke and Blacksburg, both places likely to vote Democratic, are among the top gainers in the state in registered voters since 2004.

You're thinking, no, we’ve had presidents here before. Franklin Roosevelt famously came through to dedicate the VA Medical Center in Salem. After his term in office, Jimmy Carter used to pass through all the time, usually stopping for a McDonald’s Sunday. It got to where it was barely news that he was here.

George W. Bush came here during the primary season in 2000, and also attended the D-Day Memorial dedication in Bedford. Former President Bill Clinton has been here twice in the last few months. Ronald Reagan came through decades ago – when he was just a member of the oft-maligned Hollywood elite.

rreagan-jharkrader-etc

Ronald Reagan on the set of WDBJ-7 back in the day. Photo from Old Roanoke.

And just the other night Libertarian Bob Barr hung out at Corned Beef and Co.

But the last time a major party nominee came through in the heat of an election was John F. Kennedy in 1960. And about all he did was get off the airplane and shake some hands. He was also interviewed by a young WDBJ reporter named Forrest “Frosty” Landon, later to retired as executive editor of The Roanoke Times.

jfkint

Frosty Landon interviews John F. Kennedy in 1960. Photo from Old Roanoke.

But as I recall Frosty telling me once about this photo, which hung in his office when he worked here, Kennedy came to Roanoke as an afterthought. It was days before the election, and somebody suggested he might have a chance in Virginia. So, basically, Kennedy's plane popped out of the sky to land at what was then called Woodrum Field, so he could stand on the tarmac and shake some hands. And then off he went.

This year, neither party is treating us an afterthought.

Joe the plumber, and other political linguistic fascinations

Ok, don't pretend you weren't wondering. Just how many times did John McCain and Barack Obama mention Joe the plumber during the final presidential debate Wednesday night? That would be references to an Ohio plumber who appeared on camera with Obama recently asking questions about what Obama's tax plan would mean for him and plans to buy the plumbing business he works for.

joeplumber_pixel_si_415361a

After Sarah Palin's invocation of the mythical work-a-day everyman "Joe Sixpack" during the vice-presidential debate, it's a rather hilarious coincidence that an actual work-a-day everyman who became part of the debate really is named Joe.

But back to the question. How many times was Joe invoked?

Well, you can figure it out with our latest presidential debate word clouds, a fun visual analysis of the 14,000 words the candidates uttered -- or hurled-- during the debate.

Tell you what, I'll give you the answer to that one. When they mentioned Joe the plumber, they didn't always say "plumber." McCain mentioned "Joe" 23 times, and Obama nine times. But a total of five of those mentions were about Obama's running mate, Joe Biden. So that leaves 28 mentions of the other Joe.

The word "plumber" came out 11 times by the way -- probably the most times plumbers were the subject of so much political discourse since the Nixon administration, and the revelation of Nixon's crew of Watergate operatives and burglars, known around the Oval Office back then as "the plumbers."

Enjoy the word clouds.

Burcham throws her weight around, at the Y

When you deal with data all day long, you start to look for it everywhere - and find it.

So, Tuesday I'm at the Kirk Family YMCA in downtown Roanoke for my lunch-time workout, and during a break, I scan the bulletin board. There are lists there, lists with names and numbers. Ah. Data.

It's there that I spot it, on the list of the top females for September in terms of weight lifted as tracked by the Y's FitLinxx system.

No. 2 on the list: Darlene Burcham.

Yup, the 63-year-old Roanoke City Manager pushed, pulled, hoisted and hauled a total of 535,445 pounds during September.

Now, Burcham has been accused of throwing her weight around as city manager before, but a half million pounds?

I called her. She was gracious, but not thrilled by more attention from the press, even for something like her athletic prowess. But she indulged me.

"I was startled to see that myself," she  said. And she was skeptical. "I don't believe it. I think it's fake," she said of the number. The FitLinxx system must add wrong. FitLinxx users create an account they log into before a workout, and it tracks your workouts on the assorted fitness machines at the Y.

Burcham said she started working out at the Y back in June, mainly walking around the track at the inhuman hour of 5 a.m. She's had two different foot surgeries in recent years, is overly careful when traversing stairs now, and realized because of fear of injury, she just wasn't getting as much exercise as she used to. Her daughter Ann Kreft, a Roanoke City Schools principal, joins her often. (She's No. 14 on the list, by the way.)

After a couple of months of walking, Burcham started working out on 10 different fitness machines, too.

"I do not have any kinship with those machines," she said. "I think this is something you do because it's good for you."

And when she thinks about it, and how the weight can add up during a workout, she thinks maybe that number could be right after all.

But she found the number meaningless as a motivator. Nor did she take any satisfaction from the fact that anyone had noticed.

"The last thing I need," she said, "is more publicity."

So, I ate at the Market Building yesterday

And I lived to write about it.

Candidly, I wasn't sure for quite a while if I could go back after seeing the pictures and reading the reports from the health department after a well-documented mouse-infestation and general disrepair caused the city to shut the building down.

But yesterday, with a fair amount of forethought, I made the trek down Campbell Avenue and had one of my faves, a bowl of pho soup from the Hong Kong restaurant.

Why? you might wonder. Partly I missed some of my favorite food. Partly, just habit.

And then there's this: I found I didn't care as much for the other options out there in downtown when I didn't have the market building. Don't get me wrong, there are more great restaurants serving lunch within walking distance of my building than I could name here from memory. But I rarely have the time or the do-re-mi to eat at those places.

In the Market Building, there's a great range of stuff, moderately priced, no waiters to tip, and I can get in and out fast.

I wonder how many others -- including those who want to change the Market Building one way or another -- came to this same realization, that the place as it is serves an important role for downtown diners, and is the only place serving it.

I went back to a place that, while seemingly less-crowded, was more pleasant than before. It's cleaner and the dinged-up old furniture is gone. I looked around and saw an anchor and reporter from Roanoke's two tv stations, a federal judge, and a high-powered local banking muckety-muck.

I ate my pho sitting in chair with a back on it -- a nice improvement from the old benches -- and never once thought about the kitchen where it was cooked, or what might be in it that isn't in the recipe.

With all that's gone on, the hard-scrubbing the whole place got, the damage to reputations and everyone's heightened awareness of cleanliness, there's probably no eating establishment in Roanoke that's cleaner right now.

Plus, I find I'm really back where I started with all this, eating food I like, and because I want to keep eating it, preferring my ignorance of how that food got to my plate.

Palin vs. Biden debate: a pop quiz

Hard to keep score on who wins something as subjective as Thursday's vice presidential debate, but thanks to the wonders if computer technology, you can keep score on what was said.

Check out our interactive word clouds of the 15,000 words Joe Biden and Sarah Palin combined to utter during the debate. Have some fund and test your knowledge, or at least your assumptions.

Here's a pop quiz to get you started. Hunt down the answers yourself, or, for those with less initiative (or at least less time) click here for the answers.

1) Who mentioned the name "McCain" more often?

2) Did Biden mention "John McCain" or "Barack Obama" more often?

3) Which candidate used the words "maverick" or "mavericks" more often?

4) Which candidate invoked "God" more frequently?

5) How many times did Palin mention "hockey moms?"

6) How many times was the word "Alaska" mentioned?

7) Which word or phrase was mentioned more frequently, "bridge to nowhere" or "lipstick?"

Mayor Bowers crushed under weight of his own hyperbole

That might be the headline in the satirical newspaper The Onion.

But this is no satire.

Roanoke Mayor David Bowers Tuesday during a city council retreat compared a rodent infestation in the City Market Building to the deadliest terrorist attack in the history of the world, and deadliest attack on Americans ever on our own soil.

"To me, it's very much like 9/11, I guess, in the sense that you had this catastrophe and people had to have hope after it," Bowers said.

Ok, we see the parallel. Something bad happened - and in a relative sense, it is arguably a catastrophe - and we all need to pull together, have hope for recovery and move forward.

But let's examine what happened. Let's look at the data. Read more »

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