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Datablog

Attention holiday lights junkies!

For years now, the Roanoke Times has told you where to find the most audacious holiday lighting displays in the area. It used to be in print, and last year we added an interactive map online. This year, we're going one better: a searchable database of displays with mapped results so you know right where to go.

Search by locality or even zip code.

Come back and search often, because that database will continue to grow as our local display artists submit their information.

And if you're one of those types who starts untangling and tacking up lights in September because it takes that long to put up 65,000 twinklers and 27 Santas, we're your place to tell people where to find your display. Just use our simple online form. Once you hit submit, it may take up to a day for your submission to be approved and added to the database, but I'll work as fast as I can.

So take a break from seaching for that aggravating bad bulb and tell us about your display.

More crime data: over 3,000 offenses served

The Roanoke Valley crime and Salem felony crime maps and databases are up to date again, and we crossed the 3,000 threshold in total number of offenses in the Roanoke Valley data. That's total serious violent and property crimes in Roanoke, Roanoke County and Salem for 2008. The database of all felonies in Salem now exceeds 500 items.

And, incidentially, the Salem data, which formerly went back only to Jan. 26, 2008, now goes back to Jan. 1, 2008. That's thanks to Lt. Mike Green at the Salem P.D., the guy who so kindly generates weekly crime and arrest reports for the local press and sends them out by email. Mike, without being asked, realized our data didn't go back to the first of the year and offered up the offenses for that period. Thanks for that, Mike.

And finally, if you just can't get enough crime data from these databases, don't forget we have similar searches for Radford and Montgomery County, which are maintained by my colleague Jim Ellison.

Happy searching.

A great new Virginia lobbying database, and why it's not as great as it could be

Here's a fun new way to find out what your elected officials are doing up in Richmond. The Virginia Public Access Project, for years now the place to go to find campaign finance data, now offers a database of lobbying activity in the state.

It's fun, fascinating, worrisome, and also disturbingly unreliable.

And that's not a knock on VPAP. It's a knock on Virginia's method of collecting this data, and it's utter lack of a means to see if it's accurate.

VPAP took the forms filed by lobbyists and their clients and reduced them to a terrifically well put-together database that allows you to track lobbying activity by who hired the lobbyist, who the lobbyist is, who got lobbied, the restaurants where they got lobbied, and so on.

As our Richmond reporter, Mike Sluss, reported in today's paper, you can learn some eye-opening stuff from the database. For example, payday lenders spent nearly $4 million on lobbying efforts to defeat legislation that put new restrictions on their industry.

But you can get a lot more details. Check out, for example, the popularity of Washington Redskins tickets as a lobbying carrot.

So there's data there, but at some levels, it's hard to tell if it's complete, if it's accurate, and if it says what you think it says.

That's because the state's reporting requirements are about as air-tight as the fishnets on the cigarette girl at the Tobacco Company.

As Sluss reports, the forms are filed with the office of the Secretary of the Commonwealth, but that office "does not have any type of auditing powers" to ensure the completeness or accuracy of the reports, said Chris Frink, the office's lobbying specialist.

Is it me, or does that fact sound like an invitation to write down whatever you want, who is ever going to check? (Well, except for you and me, now that we can look at this stuff online.)

The form asks filers to describe the lobbying activities conducted. Sluss cites one example in a filing by Phillip Morris USA: "All matters pertaining to the manufaccture, distribution, sale and use of tobacco products." Well, that's useful information. They might as well have written, "None of your @#$%!! business." And if they had, who would have known the difference?

Another issue has to do with the numbers they report. The reports require naming legislators who attend functions with a cost of $50 per person or more. Apparently, the common practice is to take the cost and divide it by the number of people in attendance. That might be appropriate for a catered affair that was actually billed per head. But what if it's a dinner where everyone orders off the menu, and Delegate X orders a $35 steak, the creme broulee and two bottles of wine, while Senator Y stops in for one cocktail? Using the division of the total cost, it would appear on the report lawmakers X and Y both received the same benefit from the lobbyist, which is both grossly inaccurate and grossly unfair to Senatory Y.

In fact, Sluss cites an example very much like that, in which House of Delegates Majority Leader Morgan Griffith (R-Salem) attended a function where he, after much offering, said he accepted a glass of tea or cranberry juice. But on the report filed for that event, Griffith was down for a full $127 share of the bill.

And then there's this: divide the bill by enough people to get it to below $50 per person, and you don't have to name names

No doubt there are some lobbyists and clients out there who don't abuse this slack system and follow the spirit of the law even though they apparently don't have to.

But the transparency of our political process demands something weightier than the spirit of the law. Spirits are fleeting things. Spirits have no teeth.  And this is a situation in serious need of some teeth.

Now, let's see, where are those teeth going to come from? Who makes laws in this state? Oh, yes, the very legislators who can exploit this vaguery to the own benefit, if they so choose.

Legislators can be persuaded. But who is going lobby them to make such a change?

A little late, but here's where the Palin attendance number came from

I'm reluctant to bring this up and to reignite the really zealous -- and sometimes just nasty -- give and take you all had over my post about how many people attended the Sarah Palin rally in Salem.

But, in the interest of thorough reporting, here goes:

You might recall that the estimates ranged from 12,000 to as high as 20,000, but the most common figure reported in various print, online and broadcast sources was 16,000. It turns out that is the most reliable number, because, according to the Salem police, it's based largely on the number of people who passed through metal detectors on their way in to the stadium.

Lt. Mike Green told our police reporter, Amanda Codispoti, yesterday that the walk through metal detector scanned about 15,000 people. Only dignitaries did not pass through the detector, and organizers estimated the number of dignitaries at 1,000.  So, 15,000 regular folks plus 1,000 VIPs gets you to that oft-mentioned figure of 16,000.

Oh, yeah, there's been something going on besides the election. Crime.

Oh, yeah, crime has marched on the last few weeks. And that's not a joke about the last two weeks on the campaign trail.

The Roanoke Valley has been racking up it's share of crime during that time, though you couldn't tell it from our Roanoke Vallley and Salem crime maps. I haven't been able to update them thanks mainly to being swallowed up by election coverage here lately.

But I put in an update today, so the data now runs through last Monday, Nov. 3.

The pre-election polls: Who got it right?

Ralph Berrier, my friend and colleague, recently wrote a small item for the paper about his obsession with polls, his insensible desire to find any evidence that his candidate was gaining ground or holding steady.

This year, of all years, it was hard to know what to trust. The number of polling companies seems limitless -- Gallup, Marist, Zogby, Mason-Dixon, Survey USA, and so on -- as did the variety in the results.

Even for polls on the same day.

In the same spot on the map.

The results were all over the place. You could seemingly find evidence for any trend you hoped for -- a widening nationally, a tightening in battleground states, or whatever.

Pollsters start with certain assumptions about voter turnout among certain groups, and certain ideas about who is registered to vote and who will actually vote. There are registered voter models, likely voter models, and so on.

The trouble this year was, could anybody really know what the electorate look like? With 500,000 new registered voters in Virginia, for example, would a pollsters old assumptions still stand up?

Inevitably, you wonder, now that the only poll that matters has been conducted -- the election -- did anybody get it right? At least I wondered.

So, without putting a lot of work into it, here's a snapshot of polls versus results. Read more »

Election day voter turnout data: Spots to watch

So you can't stand it, you gotta know how it's going. Votes don't get counted until late tonight -- if not into tomorrow or into December.

You can watch early returns in key places tonight after the polls close to get a glimpse of how it might be going for your candidate. My boss, Dwayne Yancey, wrote about five (or more) places to watch for that purpose in a column in Sunday's paper.

But suppose you don't want wait that long. Well, you can always look at turnout. And I'm here to help you.

I'll be endeavoring to post at least two updates on turnout in precincts in Roanoke, Roanoke County, Salem, Montgomery County and Radford.

Here's an idea of what to look for:

Will young people, notoriously low in turnout, really come out this year? Conventional wisdom says big youth turnout helps Obama. To gauge it, watch turnout numbers for E-1 (St. Michael's Lutheran Church) and F-1 (Luther Memorial Lutheran Church) in Blacksburg, the East precinct in Radford, and both North Salem precincts.

What about black voters? Roanoke is a highly segregated city, so some precincts have very high percentages of black voters. Watch precincts like Lincoln Terrace, Melrose, Villa Heights and Eureka Park. All historically vote overwhelmingly for Democrats in presidential races, but also have low turnout -- just over 50 percent in 2004.

To gauge Republican turnout, watch Roanoke County's Bonsack precinct. While John Kerry didn't win a single precinct in Roanoke County, Bonsack went 72 percent for George W. Bush. Others to watch include the Orchards in Roanoke County, Auburn High School in Montgomery County, and Beverly Heights in Salem, all of which went for Bush in large numbers in 2004.

Some 10 a.m. turnout data is already available, so check it out here.

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Comments

    • Matt Chittum: Amy, we never published the full results, I don’t believe. The primary use of the results was for...
    • Amy: would love to know the results of the poll, where can I find them?
    • Beth Obenshain: Dear Matt, I have spent the last 7 1/2 years working with landowners across Southwest Virginia to...
    • LarryG: putting aside land that remains in private ownership without a specific public benefit in patchwork patterns...
    • Chris in Floyd: In addition, due the high demand, the VOF has put some minimum requirements such as the proposed...