2008.11.04
Election day voter turnout data: Spots to watch
So you can't stand it, you gotta know how it's going. Votes don't get counted until late tonight -- if not into tomorrow or into December.
You can watch early returns in key places tonight after the polls close to get a glimpse of how it might be going for your candidate. My boss, Dwayne Yancey, wrote about five (or more) places to watch for that purpose in a column in Sunday's paper.
But suppose you don't want wait that long. Well, you can always look at turnout. And I'm here to help you.
I'll be endeavoring to post at least two updates on turnout in precincts in Roanoke, Roanoke County, Salem, Montgomery County and Radford.
Here's an idea of what to look for:
Will young people, notoriously low in turnout, really come out this year? Conventional wisdom says big youth turnout helps Obama. To gauge it, watch turnout numbers for E-1 (St. Michael's Lutheran Church) and F-1 (Luther Memorial Lutheran Church) in Blacksburg, the East precinct in Radford, and both North Salem precincts.
What about black voters? Roanoke is a highly segregated city, so some precincts have very high percentages of black voters. Watch precincts like Lincoln Terrace, Melrose, Villa Heights and Eureka Park. All historically vote overwhelmingly for Democrats in presidential races, but also have low turnout -- just over 50 percent in 2004.
To gauge Republican turnout, watch Roanoke County's Bonsack precinct. While John Kerry didn't win a single precinct in Roanoke County, Bonsack went 72 percent for George W. Bush. Others to watch include the Orchards in Roanoke County, Auburn High School in Montgomery County, and Beverly Heights in Salem, all of which went for Bush in large numbers in 2004.
Some 10 a.m. turnout data is already available, so check it out here.
Nice turnout site Matt, when do you expect to be able to update Roanoke City's?
Comment by Roanoke RnR — November 4, 2008 @ 6:04 pm
Thanks. I'm loading it up as fast as I get it. It's just not coming that fast. Three different registrars have said that they're having trouble communicating with the precincts to get the data. It's just slow-moving. Soon I'll start working on actual results, and at that point I'm afraid the turnout database will slip down the priority list, but I'll do my best.
Comment by Matt Chittum — November 4, 2008 @ 6:18 pm
When will the breakdown of Dems/Repubs at each precinct be available? At Peters Creek Precinct the total voted is what you have but that was at 6:30 PM. Do you expect any changes?
What is the Perriello/Goode count now?
Comment by Valerie — November 5, 2008 @ 9:23 am
Thanks. As I noted on one of Dwayne's posts, just wish there had been data on turnout for the whole area covred by the Times. how hard would that be to do next time.
Comment by Beth Wellington — November 5, 2008 @ 6:16 pm