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Violence in Iraq is down dramatically since last year by a ballpark figure of 90%. Reasons for the decrease include: the growing strength of the Iraqi Army and National Police, the surge of U.S. forces, and the financial success of the Iraqi oil market. Yet, perhaps the largest single reason is a movement known as ‘The Awakening.’

The next month will test the Awakening movement. The main question is: “Will conditions endure or reverse?”

The Awakening began as a social movement in the Al Anbar province, a vast desert area west of Baghdad accounting for roughly one-third of Iraqi land. The men and women in this Sunni-dominated region tired of the constant violence and, as a community, decided to take ownership of the neighborhoods. Initially, the Awakening operated like a neighborhood watch.

U.S. forces recognized the value of the movement and placed it on the U.S. payroll. Under the name ‘Sons of Iraq,’ the movement spread nationally.

The Sons of Iraq established frequent checkpoints along major roadways and at key locations. Each checkpoint includes a speed bump and 2-6 Sons of Iraq, donning a reflective vest and an AK-47.

As the name of the movement transformed, so did the motives of the participants. The ideological community effort slowly shifted to a program through which those in need of a job jumped on the bandwagon. In effect, the very same men that just one year ago planted bombs for hire now call themselves Sons of Iraq while they stand watch on roadways and earn $300 per month, which is a decent living in Iraq.

Presently, the U.S. is pushing the Iraqi government to take control of their own affairs, especially their finances. While the U.S. seeks Shia-dominated government’s incorporation of the Sons of Iraq, some Iraqis distrust the program, viewing it as a potential threat—a band of hoodlums.

The U.S. has handed off the Sons of Iraq payroll to the Government of Iraq, resulting in a struggle to implement administrative controls for the tens of thousands of new employees. Meanwhile, payday is fast approaching and the Sons of Iraq are getting edgy with fear that they will go without pay.

Some predict a spike in violence in the coming weeks, if the Sons of Iraq desert their posts or revert to insurgents for hire.

The surge is coming to a close and the Iraqi Army and oil market remain strong. Soon we will see the true face of the Sons of Iraq. Will it remain the devoted neighborhood watch committee that helps keep the peace? Or will it become a group of armed bullies seeking lunch money?

Stay tuned.

Rich Connaroe
Captain, U.S. Army
RICHARD.CONNAROE@US.ARMY.MIL
The thoughts and opinions in this article are that of the author alone and are not meant to represent the U.S. military. Any errors contained therein are that of the author.

SOI Checkpoints in southern Baghdad:

Notice the next checkpoint in the distance.

The speed bump may be hard to see, but believe me, you better slow down.

The shops around this one enjoy constant security.

Good guy.